Raiders' pick scenarios - significant movement still possible

[BradyToAmendola]

Just did some quick math on strength of schedule, which is the first tiebreaker for draft order. The Raiders had a pretty easy schedule, so they "win" the tiebreaker against everyone except the Rams and Jags. Thus, here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case:
Raiders lose to KC
Redskins beat Giants
Vikings beat Lions
Titans beat Colts
Dolphins result irrelevant in this scenario.

Raiders finish 7-9 and pick 12th due to "winning" tiebreaker vs. Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans.

Worst Case:
Raiders beat KC
Pats beat Dolphins
Texans beat Jags.

Raiders finish 8-8 and pick 17th due to "losing" tiebreaker to Jags.

Would it help us any if the Seahawks beat the Rams next week (and the Raiders lose, of course)?

 

[RayClay]

here are actually several DE/DT types in that 285/290 range that could be huge assets for the Patriots in the first round. But which ones will Belichick favor?

Remember, when Seymour came out, there were a bunch of guys like him that were also almost indistinguishable, and the knock on Richard in college is that his motor was not always running, he wasn't playing very hard all the time.

So it's impossible to know who Belichick might be favoring.

Craig Heyward is a kid who could do what Seymour did, but people knock his motor too. Maybe Belichick likes him and thinks he can light a fire.

I think BB knew what he wanted there, though I'm not sure. If there isn't an outstanding candidate, I think he'll pass again and try to fill in with role players. With the Warrens and Brace and others, they can hold ayear. he won't try to make a monster out of a non monster, that's his M.O.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Thanks bucky, great analysis and good to know who to cheer for/root against this Sunday with everything locked up already for us.

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

This post is pretty ridiculous on numerous levels.

1. Who gives a crap if BB doesn't take flashy players on draft day? We're not trying to win the Mel Kiper Jr. Award for most big names from the draft analysts. We're trying to build the best team possible. We got killed for taking Vollmer early. There were a lot of critics of the Mankins pick as a reach. McCourty was a special teamer.

But somehow, BB was right. None of those picks were flashy. They were the right picks though.

I'm sorry BB doesn't draft big names to make you happy, but I'd rather win in the regular season and play-offs than on draft day or the off-season.

2. Why is it strange to get excited about draft position with BB? The higher the pick, the more value it presents. The more value it presents, the more he can rob other teams for. If that pick is 12th vs. 17th, it is a significant enough difference that he could squeeze an extra pick a round higher potentially from another team. Even if he shops that pick, he gets more the higher it is. Which, as a Pats fan, should make you happy.

3. BB doesn't always trade down. He trades down when he gets a great deal. He's traded up when he feels the price is right too.

 

[VJCPatriot]

All I know is that I'm rooting for KC to beat the Raiders.
I can't believe that SD blew their game against Oakland.
Wow it's as if they tanked on purpose just to screw with the Pats.
Anyways I think KC has something to play for don't they or did they already clinch their division?
I hope they seriously try to beat the Raiders because we can use some help with that pick.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

All I know is that I'm rooting for KC to beat the Raiders.
I can't believe that SD blew their game against Oakland.
Wow it's as if they tanked on purpose just to screw with the Pats.
Anyways I think KC has something to play for don't they or did they already clinch their division?
I hope they seriously try to beat the Raiders because we can use some help with that pick.

Did the Raiders cost San Diego the playoffs?

I think Norm Turner should be shown the door for losing twice to the Raiders!

 

[West Philly Patriot]

Big ups to bucky for the info. I was equally pissed @ SD watching that tank job against the raiders. I'm not one for conspiracy theories so i don't they laid down or anything.

Imagine my dismay to hear the following week someone say we should fear the chargers? :bricks:

I really thought we would have a shot at the next great DE with this pick. Maybe it's still a possibility but if history is any indicator we'll probably be doing some trading.....back lol

 

[asfpnepRefugee]

Craig Heyward is a kid who could do what Seymour did, but people knock his motor too. Maybe Belichick likes him and thinks he can light a fire.

Are you talking about Cameron Heyward (Craig's son)?

 

[nabwong]

1. Draft day IS exciting.

You never know what BB is gonna do. Take a look at the last draft, he went down to McCourty and then went back up for Gronkowski. Two amazing moves. And then got Spikes in the 2nd and Hernandez in the 4th.

2. Expect trades for next year's picks

The chances of using all our picks this year is close to zero. I can't see us using all first 6 picks. Our squad is too good and too young right now, plus we have several starters coming back from IR. Using all our picks would just be wasteful cos we'd have to cut some people.

3. Expect picking the best value players, not based on need

I think this is what happened to the McCourty pick. It didn't hurt that we also got all our needs met in last year's draft.

 

[TruthSeeker]

All I know is that I'm rooting for KC to beat the Raiders.
I can't believe that SD blew their game against Oakland.
Wow it's as if they tanked on purpose just to screw with the Pats.
Anyways I think KC has something to play for don't they or did they already clinch their division?
I hope they seriously try to beat the Raiders because we can use some help with that pick.

It was great that the Raiders beat San Diego to keep the Chargers out of the playoffs. This is so much better than a slightly higher draft pick.

 

[RodThePat]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

You've been a fan of the team for how long? Bill gets the guys he wants, and that's it. He won't trade down if his player is there and he feels he won't be available a couple of spots down. That's how he operates. If he is pretty sure can trade down five spots, get a third rounder and still draft the guy he wanted, he'll roll the dice every single time. If not, he'll just pick the player or even trade up for him, as he's done several times (yes, Bill sometimes trades up for players, what a shocking development!).

And if the 2010 draft didn't get you immediately excited, there's something wrong with you as a fan. The potential for those players was there from day one, and they're starting to realize said potential this season. *****ing and moaning about BB's draft strategy this season is just about the dumbest complaint in the recent history of this board.

 

[lamafist]

Any contracts signed by the next draft class will be done under a new collective bargaining agreement, and one of the few areas of agreement between the players and owners is the need for a smaller and more evenly distributed rookie salary pool.

This completely changes the way that draft picks, especially in the 1st round. Belichick's byzantine trade wrangling won't make as much sense anymore, since there will no longer be as much inherent value in cap savings for picking later in the round. Previously, getting a 5th round pick for trading from 14th to 16th in the 1st round was a great deal because the difference between the salary of the 14th and 16th overall picks would be ten times the salary you'd now ostensibly owe the 5th rounder. In the upcoming draft, that should no longer be the case.

On whole, the new rookie salary system should redistribute overall value back to the top of the draft by, making trading UP in the draft the new trading back, especially if GMs -- many of whom have only just recently caught up to the fact that later picks have only slightly less upside for significantly reduced investment risked -- are again slow to adjust to the reformed market.

 

[BPF]

Who cares about this pick, given our history who the hell sees us using it this decade? Call me back when it's moved #1 overall in 2023.

The Pats traded down in the past because that's what the roster dictated they do, as we know they needed to completelty reshape the D. It was also good for business. Now that they've filled holes and restocked the roster with youth they can make a are in position to move up for an impact player, ie a pass rusher. There will also more than likely be a rookie wage scale in place.

 

[Uncle Rico]

All I know is that I'm rooting for KC to beat the Raiders.
I can't believe that SD blew their game against Oakland.
Wow it's as if they tanked on purpose just to screw with the Pats.
Anyways I think KC has something to play for don't they or did they already clinch their division?
I hope they seriously try to beat the Raiders because we can use some help with that pick.

They did clinch their division. However, according to the ESPN Playoff Machine, if Pitt and Baltimore win as they should, a KC win would put them at home vs the Jets; a loss would put them at home v the Ravens. I don't know how much difference that makes to the Chiefs, but I'd think most teams would rather play the NYJs.

2010 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN


You can obviously play around with the scenarios (Steelers lose = Pitt @KC if Chiefs win, NYJ@KC if Chiefs lose ... unless Bills beat Jets). You get the idea ... but the relevant games are all 1 so my guess is KC comes out motivated.

 

[onegr8om]

The most amazing stat to me(and one that KILLED our chances of a top 10 pick) is the Raiders are UNDEFEATED in that division!! How crazy is that? lol

I'm hoping KC wants to go into the playoffs on a winning note this week!

 

[bucky]

3. BB doesn't always trade down. He trades down when he gets a great deal. He's traded up when he feels the price is right too.

As long as we're talking about this, let's look at the facts again. Here are all of BB's 1st round picks/trades:

2001: Seymour at 6 - stay pat
2002: Graham at 21 - trade up from 32
2003a: Warren at 13 - trade up from 14
2003b: Traded out of 19 for #2 and 2004 #1
2004a: Wilfork at 21 - stay pat
2004b: Watson at 32 - stay pat
2005: Mankins at 32 - stay pat
2006: Maroney at 21 - stay pat
2007a: Meriweather at 24 - stay pat
2007b: Traded out of 28 for a 2008 #1
2008: Mayo at 10 - trade down from 7
2009: Traded out of 23 and again 26 in exchange for 2nd and 2 3rds.
2010: McCourty at 27 - trade down from 22

In summary:

6 of the 13 times, BB has stayed put.
9 of the 13 times, BB has picked within 5 slots of the original position.
2 of 13 times, the Pats have traded out of the 1st for a future #1
Once they traded up 11 spots.
Once they traded way down and out of the 1st.

 

[zoostation]

If you don't care about this pick, you shouldn't use the word "our" to talk about the Patriots organization.

lol....and "us"

"We" care!@ :rocker:

 

[convertedpatsfan]

As long as we're talking about this, let's look at the facts again. Here are all of BB's 1st round picks/trades:

2001: Seymour at 6 - stay pat
2002: Graham at 21 - trade up from 32
2003a: Warren at 13 - trade up from 14
2003b: Traded out of 19 for #2 and 2004 #1
2004a: Wilfork at 21 - stay pat
2004b: Watson at 32 - stay pat
2005: Mankins at 32 - stay pat
2006: Maroney at 21 - stay pat
2007a: Meriweather at 24 - stay pat
2007b: Traded out of 28 for a 2008 #1
2008: Mayo at 10 - trade down from 7
2009: Traded out of 23 and again 26 in exchange for 2nd and 2 3rds.
2010: McCourty at 27 - trade down from 22

In summary:

6 of the 13 times, BB has stayed put.
9 of the 13 times, BB has picked within 5 slots of the original position.
2 of 13 times, the Pats have traded out of the 1st for a future #1
Once they traded up 11 spots.
Once they traded way down and out of the 1st.

If we're talking 1st round only, then no, he doesn't trade up much. But I believe BB is big on value, and the cost to trade up in the 1st round, especially a big jump, is extremely high. Which is why you find he's more than willing to trade back in those scenarios. They present much more value.

Last year for example, he traded back numerous times in the first round. But he traded up a few spots early in the second, then traded back a few more times in the second. If you look at what he did though, you can see it's extremely value-driven.

To move up early in the 2nd round from 44 to 42, he gave up only a 6th rounder (pick 190) to secure Gronk. He was probably worried about Baltimore, picking at 43, taking Gronk. Instead, Baltimore ended up with Sergio Kindle. Well worth the 6th rounder.

Conversely, later on in the 2nd round, he traded down from 58 to 62, in exchange for a 5th rounder. It was a few more spots than the earlier trade-up, but later in the 2nd round with fewer players on the board, and he was able to extract a pick a 5th rounder (145) significantly higher than what he gave up earlier.

That's great value. Trade up 2 spots to get your guy and only give up pick 190. Trade down 4 spots, still get your guy, and gain pick 145.

And for trading down 11 spots and taking Cunningham, BB squeezed a 3rd rounder out of it, the 3rd rounder that would be traded to Carolina for our 2nd rounder in 2011, #33 in the draft.

The current cost to move up in round 1 is extremely high though, and I'd imagine it doesn't make much sense in most scenarios.

 

[Fencer]

Recall that the 11 sport Grahambo trade-up came pretty cheap (from memory I'd guess a 3rd and a 6th).

Anyhow, my sense is that if there's what he sees as a Revis/Polamalu type of opportunity -- both were in the middle of the first round if I recall correctly -- BB would trade up. That depends of course, on all the usual factors -- quality, fit, position, need, etc.

 

[JeffChicago23]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

BB then coaches them and turns nobodies into Super-Bowl winners cannot argue that.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Recall that the 11 sport Grahambo trade-up came pretty cheap (from memory I'd guess a 3rd and a 6th).

Anyhow, my sense is that if there's what he sees as a Revis/Polamalu type of opportunity -- both were in the middle of the first round if I recall correctly -- BB would trade up. That depends of course, on all the usual factors -- quality, fit, position, need, etc.

That's quite the razor-sharp memory. 3rd and 7th, but I had to look it up

So to jump 11 spots and get pick 21, we gave up the 3rd and 7th. Meanwhile, the Packers jumped 8 spots in the same draft to get the pick 20, but had to trade a 2nd rounder as well to Seattle, receiving a 5th back from Seattle. So it was a pretty low cost to make that move.

Of course the player chosen didn't work out as well as we all hoped. Graham was okay, but not really what you hope for by jumping up 11 spots in the first to get a guy, and with Ed Reed still on the board. But oh well.