Raiders' pick scenarios - significant movement still possible

[drew4008]

Jesus, #17? What a piece of crap. I cannot fathom how the Raiders went 8-8. All the teams that they beat should be ashamed of themselves... we would beat them 45-0.

 

[BTTA]

+1 and it makes losing Seymour somewhat questionable IMO.

I disagree. He just wasn't that good last year.

 

[realtime]

Jesus, #17? What a piece of crap. I cannot fathom how the Raiders went 8-8. All the teams that they beat should be ashamed of themselves... we would beat them 45-0.

And I cannot fathom how the Raiders didn't make the playoffs. As their 6-0 division record indicates, they were the best team in the AFC West. We're lucky they stumbled inexplicably against some lousy NFC West teams. Otherwise, the pick would have been much worse than #17.

 

[drew4008]

And I cannot fathom how the Raiders didn't make the playoffs. As their 6-0 division record indicates, they were the best team in the AFC West. We're lucky they stumbled inexplicably against some lousy NFC West teams. Otherwise, the pick would have been much worse than #17.

That is pretty insane. First team to ever have an undefeated divisional record and miss the playoffs. Only Al and the Raiders could do such a thing hahah

 

[jsull87]

That is pretty insane. First team to ever have an undefeated divisional record and miss the playoffs. Only Al and the Raiders could do such a thing hahah

I think it's honestly right about where I thought it'd be I thought 10-15. But realistically you take russel the collosul bust from that team and you would have to add at least 3-4 wins from last year

Now I just want us to sign Seymour this offseason to complete the circle of life

 

[alamo]

Looking back through the thread, noticed this that noone corrected:

By the way -- if I am correct that only the Super Bowl winner and loser get their picks taken out of the order of regular season finish, the Pats' natural pick is constrained to be in the narrow band #29-32 no matter what happens from here.

You are incorrect, though it doesn't make a big difference. As of last year's draft, the rules changed so that all playoff teams are taken out of order, in the order they exit the playoffs. Within each group of teams exiting in the same round, those teams are ordered in their "normal draft order" (i.e. by record and strength of schedule.)

So:
Non-playoff teams 1–20
Eliminated in Wild Card round 21–24
Eliminated in Divisional round 25–28
Eliminated in Conference Championships 29–30
Super Bowl losing team 31
Super Bowl champion 32

So our own pick will be either 28 (lose our first playoff game), 30 (lose championship game), 31 (lose Super Bowl), or 32 (Champions).

 

[bucky]

Worst case scenario it is. Pick #17.

Not a single team that could have helped the Pats won today.

Chiefs, Jags, Dolphins, Titans, Redskins, Vikes - all bit the bullet.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Worst case scenario it is. Pick #17.

Not a single team that could have helped the Pats won today.

Chiefs, Jags, Dolphins, Titans, Redskins, Vikes - all bit the bullet.

Titans-Skins-Vikes were irrelevant given that the Raiders won. I'll take 17th, it could have been worse. The Raiders are a pretty good team.

Whether we pick 13 or 17, we still have the ammo to get ANY player we want above us. And our picks are spread all over so just about any trade is possible.

 

[mloyko]

Titans-Skins-Vikes were irrelevant given that the Raiders won. I'll take 17th, it could have been worse. The Raiders are a pretty good team.

Whether we pick 13 or 17, we still have the ammo to get ANY player we want above us. And our picks are spread all over so just about any trade is possible.

Your absolutely right, with 3 picks between #17-#33, if there is a player that BB really covets we will have no trouble moving up to get him. The best value in the draft is between picks 15-45 thats where we have built our current young nucleus from and we will likely add 3 more key players to our future core...one thing is for sure coming off a 14-2 season having 3 picks in the first 33 is not only unheardof but basically unfair.. rest of the league must be shakying their heads

 

[shakadave]

Does anyone know if the raiders hold the tie-breaker with the chargers or the jags if they all finish 8-8?

Raiders vs. Jags: Team with weaker strength of schedule picks first (i.e., 16th rather than 17th.) I haven't done the full calculation, but mustn't the Raiders' schedule be weaker? They played the NFC West while Jags played NFC East. Also, Raiders & Jags divisions played each other, which helps balance out the rest of their schedules.

Are we sure we're picking 17th and not 16th?

EDIT: Never mind. Sure enough we're 17th. Too bad Oakland played the Steelers!

 

[NePatriots]

Raiders vs. Jags: Team with weaker strength of schedule picks first (i.e., 16th rather than 17th.) I haven't done the full calculation, but mustn't the Raiders' schedule be weaker? They played the NFC West while Jags played NFC East. Also, Raiders & Jags divisions played each other, which helps balance out the rest of their schedules.

Are we sure we're picking 17th and not 16th?

I have the Raiders at .469 and the Jaguars at .453, so 17th is right on - here is the full 2011 NFL Draft Order.

 

[bucky]

Raiders vs. Jags: Team with weaker strength of schedule picks first (i.e., 16th rather than 17th.) I haven't done the full calculation, but mustn't the Raiders' schedule be weaker? They played the NFC West while Jags played NFC East. Also, Raiders & Jags divisions played each other, which helps balance out the rest of their schedules.

Are we sure we're picking 17th and not 16th?

Did you not read the initial post? I wish I was wrong. And perhaps I am. But I did all the counting last week.

 

[shakadave]

EDIT: Never mind. Sure enough we're 17th. Too bad Oakland played the Steelers!

 

[Patradomous]

17th is fine. Drafting order is way overrated.
At 17 the Pats can trade up for someone they really want or sucker someone and trade down and get the guy they want plus another pick.
Regardless its all good.I hope they get some linemen on both sides of the ball.