Raiders' pick scenarios - significant movement still possible

[bucky]

Just did some quick math on strength of schedule, which is the first tiebreaker for draft order. The Raiders had a pretty easy schedule, so they "win" the tiebreaker against everyone except the Rams and Jags. Thus, here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case:
Raiders lose to KC
Redskins beat Giants
Vikings beat Lions
Titans beat Colts
Dolphins result irrelevant in this scenario.

Raiders finish 7-9 and pick 12th due to "winning" tiebreaker vs. Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans.

Worst Case:
Raiders beat KC
Pats beat Dolphins
Texans beat Jags.

Raiders finish 8-8 and pick 17th due to "losing" tiebreaker to Jags.

 

[ALP]

17th isnt all that bad


and 12th is quite good

but so long as we have pick number 32, i really dont care too much between 12-17th

 

[strngplyr]

Who cares about this pick, given our history who the hell sees us using it this decade? Call me back when it's moved #1 overall in 2023.

 

[bucky]

Who cares about this pick, given our history who the hell sees us using it this decade? Call me back when it's moved #1 overall in 2023.

If you don't care about this pick, you shouldn't use the word "our" to talk about the Patriots organization.

 

[smg93]

I was trying to figure this out earlier as well. Thanks for posting this. A pick in the 12 to 17 range is pretty good.

 

[bucky]

but so long as we have pick number 32, i really dont care too much between 12-17th

That's a very good point. I just think knowing the scenarios might give some added meaning to a bunch of otherwise meaningless games.

 

[onegr8om]

Who cares about this pick, given our history who the hell sees us using it this decade? Call me back when it's moved #1 overall in 2023.

I CARE!! And i bet a lot of other fans here do too. I love draft stuff. It makes football THAT much more fun and creates a rooting interest in games i otherwise wouldn't care about. Great job to the OP! Would LOVE to have the 12th pick. I also obviously want to pick 32, but why can't we have BOTH?

And the possibilities with #33 are SO fun to think about. I'm thinking that its going to be traded and net us a #1 in 2012 and someones #2 this year, minimum!

 

[arubin]

I am super excited someone figured this out. I was going to do the math, but now I don't have to. Thank you for posting.

 

[strngplyr]

If you don't care about this pick, you shouldn't use the word "our" to talk about the Patriots organization.

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

 

[NewFeep]

I care also. It matters a great deal. #12 to #18 is right in the "sweet spot" of the draft. BB can get an impact player on defense for years to come. A blue DE/OLB would pay dividends for years. I've been feeling like it's gonna end up at #14 or #15 for several weeks now and that is a very nice place to be.

 

[Sicilian]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

Both times BB has had a pick in the top ten, he's used it in the top ten. He's also traded UP for Ty Warren, if I'm not mistaken, and stayed put for Wilfork. You're overreacting.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Its hard to get excited about the Patriots draft day, because BB almost never drafts anyone the fans could ever think of, and rarely goes for the flashy guy everyone wants. People end up confused and disappointed on draft day. I'm completely ignoring how they play on day 1, but until the season starts (when we're usually pleasantly surprised) most people are usually left shaking their head.

I care little about where the raiders pick ends up, because it most likely will not be used at that spot, and whether its 12, 13, 17, whatever, BB will still rob someone blind of that picks value and manage 13 picks in the first 4 rounds next year.

If you get excited about draft position as a Pats Fan (with the exception of 32) you're alittle strange. wait until he's done trading it and see who he finally picks to get excited.

The higher the pick, the higher the trade value. So no matter what BB does with the pick, 12th will be better than 17th.

 

[Dufflebagz]

Both times BB has had a pick in the top ten, he's used it in the top ten. He's also traded UP for Ty Warren, if I'm not mistaken, and stayed put for Wilfork. You're overreacting.

He also traded up to take Mayo at 10.

 

[arubin]

He also traded up to take Mayo at 10.

That isn't correct...

No. 7: Patriots to Saints. New England traded its first- and fifth-round selections (No. 7 and 164) to New Orleans for New Orleans' first- and third-round selections (No. 10 and 78)

 

[Fencer]

6th -- Stayed pat, took Seymour
7th -- Traded down to 10, took Mayo
13th -- Traded up to 12th, took Warren
21st -- Took a couple of guys there -- Wilfork (standing pat), Grahambo (trading up)

Even in the worst-case scenario, there's plenty of ammo to trade up to the low teens and grab somebody if that's what BB wants to do. And he well might.

I think #33 is a prime candidate to be flipped for a 2012 #1 and perhaps other considerations, but I think the Pats will take at least one player in or very near the first half of the first round.

 

[Fencer]

By the way -- if I am correct that only the Super Bowl winner and loser get their picks taken out of the order of regular season finish, the Pats' natural pick is constrained to be in the narrow band #29-32 no matter what happens from here.

 

[NewFeep]

By the way -- if I am correct that only the Super Bowl winner and loser get their picks taken out of the order of regular season finish, the Pats' natural pick is constrained to be in the narrow band #29-32 no matter what happens from here.

Excellent point, Fencer

 

[drew4008]

Alot of those crap teams won't win this week, meaning the most likely scenario (only Minny winning) is for us to have pick #14.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

Just did some quick math on strength of schedule, which is the first tiebreaker for draft order. The Raiders had a pretty easy schedule, so they "win" the tiebreaker against everyone except the Rams and Jags. Thus, here are the best and worst case scenarios:

Best Case:
Raiders lose to KC
Redskins beat Giants
Vikings beat Lions
Titans beat Colts
Dolphins result irrelevant in this scenario.

Raiders finish 7-9 and pick 12th due to "winning" tiebreaker vs. Redskins, Dolphins, Vikings and Titans.

Worst Case:
Raiders beat KC
Pats beat Dolphins
Texans beat Jags.

Raiders finish 8-8 and pick 17th due to "losing" tiebreaker to Jags.

you mean the rams seattle game has zero affect on our pick ? wow that's weird. here's to hoping for 12.

 

[ALP]

He also traded up to take Mayo at 10.

nope, we went for 7 to 10, though the numbers increase, thats actually trading down, since we picked later/lower in round