Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New England"

[Deus Irae]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

I wonder who Adam has heard from around the league to make a statement like some people think its a 95% chance that Matt will stay in New England as reported in his blog today.

Adam is one of the best in the business so its surprising to hear that such a large percentage stated from some people from the NFL say that the Pats are not as secure or sure in Brady's complete recovery as we may think he will be

Even if this is true that the Pats are not certain about Brady, there is no explanation as to why the Pats would opt to be SEVERELY handicapped with such a hit on the cap with two players ...and one who is only a backup - It would be suicide on any money for FA signings or draftees this offseason.

NFL.com Blogs Blog Archive Cassel signs $14.65M franchise tender

Geez! You mean there is actually some other people besides myself that think the Patriots signed Cassel to keep him during the uncertainty of the Brady 2009 season? From the abuse I Got, I Began to think I was the only one, and my own calculated numbers that showed it was feasible, didn't add up.

Heaven for-fend !!

On another board a fellow made an astute observation about how it would help if Seymour and maybe Green were extended, to make things easier. It would help but a new deal makes it a cakewalk, described below.

Here is a copy of that post/response:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belisarius
When you look at that list, trading Cassel looks better and better as it solves cap issues in one fell swoop and leaves room to go shopping.

Failing that, extending Green and Seymour is a necessity, not a luxury.


Exactly correct. Seymour and maybe Greene will probably be extended.

Offering Seymour a five year deal with a Signing Bonus at essentially $8.5 million a year or so Cap hit, but essentially his present salary of approximately $4+ million a year, (except SB year as is conventional) would free almost $4.5 million this year, on the CAP. If the SB was for $20 million that would work and keep him a Pat for the rest of his HOF career.

The deal would be 5 years at $40 million with a $20 million SB and annual salaries of $4+ million a year, but only 2 million this year. This is essentially a level load deal, and produces no future year problems. I think the value is about what the going rate is for a top DE, and Richard gets $22+ million cash in 2009.

Then the CAP is not $3.9 but almost $9 million. You can sign all your own FAs, that you want; and even take a stab at signing another of the post 2009 FA guys, or look at a FA. (and also keep Cassel & Brady).

 

[mesoslo]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

so if the patriots keep cassel, they can still extend contracts of key players like seymour and greene, but wont be able to make a huge bid for some 2009 FA?

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Are you insane? - Do you realize the effects this would have on any FA signings that we need to shore up the D,not to mention contracts for the rookies we draft and on top of that money for extensions on Wilfork,Seymour ect:

There is simply not enough cap space to do ALL of this unless the players give into playing for about half of what the other teams would offer them - Can't do it with nearly 30M tied up in 2 QBs contracts - thats the bottom line

Drivel. PROVE IT !!

I grow weary of bald ***** statements that are not accompanied by hard calculations against the CAP, to support them.

Pray tell, how many people are needed to "shore up" the Tenth ranked Defense, 8th in Points Allowed, in the League? A Defense that played 9 newcomers.

Presumably second year players will play with out as many rookie mistakes, so that Defense will improve. Even without any more newcomers, but it will still have additional drafted talent. If you contest that, take it up with Belichick, as he has said that numerous times.

I don't think you have any right to call someone else here INSANE. We are all Patriot's fans, here. And YOU have not proved your damn case, at all.

 

[Patjew]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Damn, I was just about to post that!

 

[Jimke]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Geez! You mean there is actually some other people besides myself that think the Patriots signed Cassel to keep him during the uncertainty of the Brady 2009 season? From the abuse Igot, Ibegan to think I was the only one, and my own calcualted numbers taht showed it was feasible, didn't add up.

Heaven forfend !!

On another board a fellow made anastute observation about how it would help if Seymou rand maybe Green were extended, to make things easier.It would help bu ta new deal makes it a cakewalk, described below.

Here is a copy of that post/response:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Belisarius
When you look at that list, trading Cassel looks better and better as it solves cap issues in one fell swoop and leaves room to go shopping.

Failing that, extending Green and Seymour is a necessity, not a luxury.


Exactly correct. Seymour and maybe Greene will probably be extended.

Offering Seymour a five year deal with a Signing Bonus at essentially $8.5 million a year or so Cap hit, but essentially his present salary of approximatly $4+ million a year, (excepthte SB year as is conventional) would free almost $4.5 million this year, on the CAP. If the SB was for $20 million that would work and keep him a Pat for the rest of his HOF career.

The deal would be 5 years at $40 million with a $20 million SB and annual salaries of $4+ million a year, but only 2 million this year. This is essentially a level load deal, and produces no future year problems. I think the value is about what the going rate is for a top DE, and Richard gets $22+ million cash in 2009.

Then the CAP is not $3.9 but almost $9 million. You can sign all your own FAs, that you want; and even take a stab at signing another of the post 2009 FA guys, or look at a FA. (and also keep Cassel & Brady).

I think you under estimate how much it would take to extend

Seymour. Seymour will shoot for Dwight Freeney money. Dwight

received a 30 million dollar bonus with an average salary of 12

million dollars a year for 6 years.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Pretty suprising leap in logic by Schefter. He's usually right on the money... let's hope this is one of the times that he's wrong.

It is a leap in logic - if only because the Patriots no longer get to decide where Cassel plays next year. Cassel does.

And if he wants to block a trade, all he has to do is decline to come to terms with the team in question.... if he wants to collect $15 million for sitting on the bench to back up Brady and go back into free agency next season to collect another $25 million or more in signing bonus money when teams won't need to give up any draft picks to get him, he can.

It's amazing that Schefter seems to be talking like the Patriots are the ones who hold all the cards.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

I think you under estimate how much it would take to extend

Seymour. Seymour will shoot for Dwight Freeney money. Dwight

received a 30 million dollar bonus with an average salary of 12

million dollars a year for 6 years.

It isn't level loaded, if I recall. So its ficticious numbers. Freeney willl never see the end of the contract. There are already stirrings in Colt land that he needs to "re-negotiate".

Seymour is older than Freeney. If you wanted a Freeney-type contract, make it 6 years with a last year of $30 million dollar salary in year 6, and the fantasy deal would then by a 6-year $70+ million dollar deal. And just as much fantasy. I proposed a level-loaded realistic deal that would keep Seymour a Patriot until he went to the Hall of Fame. Not some stoke the Agent's PR phoniness.

 

[Miguel]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Offering Seymour a five year deal with a Signing Bonus at essentially $8.5 million a year or so Cap hit, but essentially his present salary of approximatly $4+ million a year, (excepthte SB year as is conventional) would free almost $4.5 million this year, on the CAP. If the SB was for $20 million that would work and keep him a Pat for the rest of his HOF career.

The deal would be 5 years at $40 million with a $20 million SB and annual salaries of $4+ million a year, but only 2 million this year. This is essentially a level load deal, and produces no future year problems. I think the value is about what the going rate is for a top DE, and Richard gets $22+ million cash in 2009.

Seymour's current cap number is $ 9,791,720
which is made up of $6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$3,685,000 salary
$106,720 offseason workout bonus money

Your proposal would ADD to Seymour's 2009 cap hit (not lessen hit)
$6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$4,000,000 proration of the $20,000,000 signing bonus
$2,000,000 salary
$6,720 offseason workout bonus money
Total $12,006,720

 

[WhiZa]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

offseason fodder :singing:

 

[farn]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Another dude on NFLN was adding his support, saying he thought Cassel would be back... then Mora (Playoffs ?) shot it down.

Seems like the keeping Cassel wave is picking up momentum. I suspect BB is laughing somewhere (or at least that somewhat awkward snickering he sends Lynchy's way on All Access during the belistrator).

I really can't see Cassel NOT moving on... but then again, I couldn't believe that crazy intentional safety in Denver either. BB, you crazy crazy biatch - never change.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

LOL good call Deus

 

[TheKraftyOne]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Belichick is doing too good a job pretending he wants to keep Cassel, thus raising the asking price.

Bill, give them some hope so they at least TRY to trade for Cassel!!

Ditto, it'll take a lot to "pry" him out of NE. Wink-wink.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

BB is just driving up the price for Cassel and with all these "Experts" offering their opinions, I think BB has them eating out of his hand. Adam is usually spot on but on this I think he needs to do more homework like most of these experts.

As of right now we will be right at the CAP after we sign our draft picks for 2009 with Cassel on the team. Wright, Gaffney, Evans, Jordan, Hanson, Hochstien, Izzo, Harrison and James Sanders. All of these 9 players we would not be able to resign without making cuts or restructuring and BB is good but not that good.

All 9 UFA I mention all played big roll's on the team so I guess we are going to let all them go and rely on 9 draft picks to fill these spots. Even by doing so I doubt BB will go into a season with only 1 million in Cap space and pay one of his QB's to backup at a 14.6 million dollar price tag.

K,

Sorry, the Rookies cost almost NOTHING, against the Cap; when you have 51 players signed. The Pats have 50. As a matter of fact signing rookies will actually free up Cap Space. Rookie contracts are cheap, and every rookie you keep means a higher priced vet that you don't keep.

The $3.9 million or so is what's available for our FAs, that we want, not our rookies. Most are vet minimums if you notice. And more than half won't be invited back, in any case. Worry about Wright, Woods and Gaffeny only. It would certainly help to re-sign and extend Seymour and Green. If we did, the CAP room would go up to $10,000,000 or more.

Miguel already includes Green's option bonus so it is only the remaining portion of his contract we are concerned with. Plus we may extend him and open up even more CAP space.

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

ok this is a stupid statement "SOME of the NFL"

let's see does 15% of the NFL believe that there's a 95% chance?

or let's say there is 50% of the NFL that beleives there is a 95% chance he'll leave.

or what about the BB misinformation factor.

let's wait and see how sweet of an offer is made that BB can't turn down.

let's drive up the price!!!!

 

[ScottieC]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

No way we keep Cassel. I trust Adam usually... but there is just no way we tie up that kind of cash.

Eh, Adam is just reporting what he has heard around the league, and that's in NO way the barometer for what Bill does/has done/or will do in the future.

Hell, he's not even part of the NFL Coaching Association. Who's he talking to? Ernie, and who's Ernie talking to? Some guy at MIT about Chaos theory and how a butterfly in China effects the arch of a 40 yard throw to a receiver.

 

[alvinnf]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

ok this is a stupid statement "SOME of the NFL"

let's see does 15% of the NFL believe that there's a 95% chance?

or let's say there is 50% of the NFL that beleives there is a 95% chance he'll leave.

or what about the BB misinformation factor.

let's wait and see how sweet of an offer is made that BB can't turn down.

let's drive up the price!!!!

Thank you! now I don't have to type what I was thinking out.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

It is pretty hard to have these discussions on this board.

I think on the one hand, it's legitimate to read various things and ask whether they might mean something about Brady's recovery. But then you tap into that very vocal group here who simply will not fathom any suggestion that Brady might not be 100 percent on target. Sometimes it seems you could have 10 well known board regulars all eye witness a bone sticking out of Brady's leg and they'd get shouted down as part of some Mangini conspiracy.

So, with that out of the way, the Patriots have a problem. They want to get as much as they can for Cassel, but they know full well that everyone they negotiate with is thinking the same thing: They have to move him, because they can't take the cap hit. If they can get more than one team involved in a bidding war, that starts to dissipate, but for now, I really don't think anyone interested in a QB is taking seriously the proposition that the Patriots are going to keep him. The only real way the Pats' FO can deal with this is to hope misinformation is out there. Or, at least, to promote an atmosphere where journalists speculate. So, I imagine we're going to see alot of this.

Or, it could mean Brady is actually behind and we need a backup for next year -- whatever it costs in terms of not signing FAs.

 

[alvinnf]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

You gotta set the market if you want compensation, maybe they would be happy with a fourth round pick for a guy who's in his walk year. Would'nt you still have to ask for a couple firsts. Then again maybe they want to keep him, wink wink, nudge nudge......

 

[RayClay]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Stupid.

If he's not stupid, he's trying to get a reaction.