Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New England"

[MassPats38]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

It is pretty hard to have these discussions on this board.

I think on the one hand, it's legitimate to read various things and ask whether they might mean something about Brady's recovery. But then you tap into that very vocal group here who simply will not fathom any suggestion that Brady might not be 100 percent on target. Sometimes it seems you could have 10 well known board regulars all eye witness a bone sticking out of Brady's leg and they'd get shouted down as part of some Mangini conspiracy.
Or, it could mean Brady is actually behind and we need a backup for next year -- whatever it costs in terms of not signing FAs.

I suspect most fans "want" Brady to be on track (love the positive rumors, hate the negative rumors). The mere fact of Cassel's designation as franchise player neither requires the conclusion Brady will be healthy for the first game nor that the Patriots are making that designation with the intention of getting a better return on a personnel move. No hard fact supports either outcome (look at all the pictures of Brady in the scandal sheets you can see - they do not answer that question as far as sports medicine is concerned), and the answer could be somewhere in between, reflecting the Patriots weighing the odds as to a particular outcome. If somebody here definitively knows the answer, they had better have access to Brady's medical record and his treating physician's knowledge to interpret it for them.

In Shefter's case, if he said Cassel stays I'd give the statement some credence. In this case, it's not his statement he's relaying, nor his representation that someone in the Patriots organization indicated they are heading in that direction, so it really isn't worth much. Would I rule the possibility out? Not a chance. Until Brady participates in preseason drills, this story is far from over.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Seymour's current cap number is $ 9,791,720
which is made up of $6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$3,685,000 salary
$106,720 offseason workout bonus money

Your proposal would ADD to Seymour's 2009 cap hit (not lessen hit)
$6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$4,000,000 proration of the $20,000,000 signing bonus
$2,000,000 salary
$6,720 offseason workout bonus money
Total $12,006,720

Miguel,

Unlike the other posters who make no atempt to do any calculations ,and just assert their positiion, I thoroughly respect and defer to you.

Your post above says that is not the way to extend Seymour so as to re-sign him and free Cap space.

Please be kind enough to describe a hypothetical contract that you think is "realistic" and not some Freeney fantasy back-loaded contract. Yet still insures that Seymour stays a Patriot, and we get some cap space this season.

Thank You.

 

[onegr8om]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

I believe that 95% of SOME of these NFL people will believe whatever Bill Belichick WANTS them to believe.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Are you insane? - Do you realize the effects this would have on any FA signings that we need to shore up the D,not to mention contracts for the rookies we draft and on top of that money for extensions on Wilfork,Seymour ect:

There is simply not enough cap space to do ALL of this unless the players give into playing for about half of what the other teams would offer them - Can't do it with nearly 30M tied up in 2 QBs contracts - thats the bottom line

You, and other posters here echoing these same sentiments, assume that the Pats and Cassel are simply going to do the one-and-done scenario, at 14+ mill.

That's not necessarily going to be the case.

If Belichick has it in his mind to stay with this guy into the future (and why not? He's stuck with him this far), the it's more than likely that a longer-term deal, with a much more cap-friendly number, will be worked out.

As a case in point, if you want to dramatically increase your current net worth, let your insurance expire, and you'll have a lot more cash to spend. Of course, if something happens in the interim....

That is what Cassel is - a real good insurance policy. The Pats proved that to everybody by tagging him. Cassel apparently likes that idea, since he signed as quickly as he did.

While most everyone here is drooling over some fantastical draft picks that have yet to materialize, I'm not quite ready to bet the mortgage on O'Donnell as the team's insurance policy. He may very well be the 2nd coming of Terry Bradshaw...or Tom Brady! But I'm not ready to place the faith of the saints in the kid should anything untoward happen to Brady, and neither should the Patriots' brain trust.

Gotta edit here....

Sure, the 14 M cap space will still be taken up, but as others have demonstrated, it's not beyond the pale to see some serious restructuring going on, so affordability, IMHO, is not the issue.

He may still go, but I really think they Pats want to keep hime around for a while, and I'm sure Cassel feels the same way.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

K,

Sorry, the Rookies cost almost NOTHING, against the Cap;

Depnds on which rookies. Try telling that to the teams that have made some bad choices with Top 5 picks.

That's one of the reasons why a team in need of a QB with say, the #3 pick might be inclined to trade it for a player who, while expensive, at least is a proven NFL commodity.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

This is a non-story story. So some people in the NFL think there is only a 5% chance Cassel gets traded. I bet that others in the NFL who think there is only a 5% chance he stays.

I like Schefter, but this is not even worthy of a blog entry unless it was some people close to the Patriots organization which he doesn't state. Otherwise, it is pure speculation. A month ago there were people in the NFL who thought there was no way the Pats would franchise Cassel.

 

[patchick]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

ok this is a stupid statement "SOME of the NFL"

let's see does 15% of the NFL believe that there's a 95% chance?

or let's say there is 50% of the NFL that beleives there is a 95% chance he'll leave.

Not to worry, I've got you covered.

In fact, 27.3% of the NFL believes it's 95% certain. Run the numbers and you'll see that this yields a 25.935% probability that Cassel stays. In other words, out of 100,000 possible NFL 2009 worlds, Matt Cassel plays for the Patriots 25,935 times. Other relevant numbers: he's a Buccaneer 11,203 times, a Chief 7,890 times, and a Walmart greeter twice. This is science, people.

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

I wonder who Adam has heard from around the league to make a statement like some people think its a 95% chance that Matt will stay in New England as reported in his blog today.

Adam is one of the best in the business so its surprising to hear that such a large percentage stated from some people from the NFL say that the Pats are not as secure or sure in Brady's complete recovery as we may think he will be

Even if this is true that the Pats are not certain about Brady, there is no explanation as to why the Pats would opt to be SEVERELY handicapped with such a hit on the cap with two players ...and one who is only a backup - It would be suicide on any money for FA signings or draftees this offseason.

NFL.com Blogs Blog Archive Cassel signs $14.65M franchise tender

Pfft. They are all yanking BB's chain to make him think there is no market for him (or the diabolical BB is yanking THEIR chains by stating that they won't be able to pay the price he wants for Cassel, thus driving up his price).

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Not to worry, I've got you covered.

In fact, 27.3% of the NFL believes it's 95% certain. Run the numbers and you'll see that this yields a 25.935% probability that Cassel stays. In other words, out of 100,000 possible NFL 2009 worlds, Matt Cassel plays for the Patriots 25,935 times. Other relevant numbers: he's a Buccaneer 11,203 times, a Chief 7,890 times, and a Walmart greeter twice. This is science, people.

good number crunching. yoou should work for wall st.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Wasn't Kraft instrumental in crafting the last CBA? Or am I remembering wrong?

Is it possible that Kraft caught a little NE Screw-youism in the interim, realized he is a big-market franchise, and is sitting on a multiple starting QB stable, and the ability to keep both using the franchise, and pushing for an uncapped NFL?

Look at baseball: the payroll=championship equation has been proven wrong, and in these tough times, everybody is playing "hey, you don't have to spend!!!" Suddenly it does not look impossible that rational unexuberance can be the result of an uncapped year... and for owners that's not too bad a thing. Then nobody's FORCING them to give 60% of revenues to players. Saving -- or spending -- is up to the individual clubs (especially the big-market ones.)

Just sayin'.

PFnV

 

[jsull87]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

people who think we are going to trade cassel should take this as good news because it means that at least for some teams there is a genuine belief that we may not trade him. this is good because it means it is less likley for people to try and "call our bluff" by not putting in a realistic offer. now obviously there is the other side of the story and it might be true and we might keep matt. but hopefully this whole week and more will be about making people think we want to keep him thus maxamising his value in a trade... hopefully

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

throwing 95% in there is misleading. Why not just say that SOME (a few) people are convinced that he'll stay. OTHERS (more than some) are fairly certain that he's going to be gone.

 

[Grizzafted]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

well one thing is for sure, no matter what happens it's going to fall on the shoulders of one man and one man only, bill belichick. that guy has about as much power as an NFL coach can possibly have. trade brady, cassell, keep cassell for insurance purposes...whatever. it's going to be BB's decision. Kraft might object to trading Brady but he'd probably defer to BB. with Pioli out it's a one man show in Foxboro.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Well the forum had WWBD and now we have WWCD ...

I come to the forum every day wondering :confused2: What Will Cassel Do? :confused2:

Stay informed and tune in tomorrow for another segment of:

"Days of Our Cassel"

"The Bold and the Cassel"

"The Young and The Cassel"

"As Cassel Turns"

Or tune in at night for the reality versions of:

"The Biggest Cassel"

"American Cassel"

"Dancing With Matt Cassel"

"Hell's Cassel"

"America's Next Matt Cassel"

"The Toughest Cassel"

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

Seymour's current cap number is $ 9,791,720
which is made up of $6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$3,685,000 salary
$106,720 offseason workout bonus money

Your proposal would ADD to Seymour's 2009 cap hit (not lessen hit)
$6,000,000 prorated signing bonus
$4,000,000 proration of the $20,000,000 signing bonus
$2,000,000 salary
$6,720 offseason workout bonus money
Total $12,006,720

Yes - back when I was a jr. GM I used to make the same mistake of forgetting the previous contract's signing bonus in salary cap negotiations. That guranteed money can't just "go away".

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

:singing: NICE!!!!

 

[IcyPatriot]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

well one thing is for sure, no matter what happens it's going to fall on the shoulders of one man and one man only, bill belichick. that guy has about as much power as an NFL coach can possibly have. trade brady, cassell, keep cassell for insurance purposes...whatever. it's going to be BB's decision. Kraft might object to trading Brady but he'd probably defer to BB. with Pioli out it's a one man show in Foxboro.

Wow ... everything explained in less then 100 words ... I can sleep peacefully tonight.

 

[Seneschal2]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

...its surprising to hear that such a large percentage stated from some people from the NFL say that the Pats are not as secure or sure in Brady's complete recovery as we may think he will be.

:wha:

So "some of the NFL" (maybe two, or three, or a handful), believe there's a 95% chance Cassel will stay. So Schefter's sources (some of the NFL), all agree on the 95% figure? Not 90%, or 99%, or 100% -- but 95%?

:nono: Schefter. You maybe had one source -- maybe. And that source said they were fairly certain. You chose the 95%...tell the truth now. :blahblah:

 

[supafly]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

You, and other posters here echoing these same sentiments, assume that the Pats and Cassel are simply going to do the one-and-done scenario, at 14+ mill.

That's not necessarily going to be the case.

If Belichick has it in his mind to stay with this guy into the future (and why not? He's stuck with him this far), the it's more than likely that a longer-term deal, with a much more cap-friendly number, will be worked out.

As a case in point, if you want to dramatically increase your current net worth, let your insurance expire, and you'll have a lot more cash to spend. Of course, if something happens in the interim....

That is what Cassel is - a real good insurance policy. The Pats proved that to everybody by tagging him. Cassel apparently likes that idea, since he signed as quickly as he did.

While most everyone here is drooling over some fantastical draft picks that have yet to materialize, I'm not quite ready to bet the mortgage on O'Donnell as the team's insurance policy. He may very well be the 2nd coming of Terry Bradshaw...or Tom Brady! But I'm not ready to place the faith of the saints in the kid should anything untoward happen to Brady, and neither should the Patriots' brain trust.

Gotta edit here....

Sure, the 14 M cap space will still be taken up, but as others have demonstrated, it's not beyond the pale to see some serious restructuring going on, so affordability, IMHO, is not the issue.

He may still go, but I really think they Pats want to keep hime around for a while, and I'm sure Cassel feels the same way.

Thank You, for pointing this EXCELLENT point out---I can't believe how many people think that one of the smartest front offices in the league would actually tie up 29 million on 2 QB's! I wouldn't be slightly suprised if we chose to keep a well proven QB over the possibility of gambling with unproven rookies. Especially when we should have 5 picks in the first 100 this year anyways. My guess is that we don't even take all 5 picks, (in first 3 rds) we'll probably trade one of those for next year. We'll have plenty of chances to 'shore up' the defense with this year's draft, many injured players coming back, and alot of the rookies from last year stepping up.

No way in all of hell that we 1.Lose the possibility of keeping Cassel or 2.Spend 29 mill. cap hit. Has to be a great chance of trying to reach 2 or 3 yr deal. One thing I've learned with this team over the last 25 years, (specifically since BB era) is never ASSUME anything. It's seemed like since day 1, almost everyone is assuming that we let Matt go for future draft picks. Seems like a no-brainer that the smart thing to do is to try hard to reach a multi-yr deal with a significantly less cap hit, especially for someone who has proved to have good progressive knowledge of the system. If they didn't let him go after a horrible pre-season, I just don't see them letting him go now--even for the brilliant 'gamble' of future picks. Just my 2 cents

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Adam Schefter: "Some of NFL believe its 95% chance Cassel will stay in New Englan

So, with that out of the way, the Patriots have a problem. They want to get as much as they can for Cassel, but they know full well that everyone they negotiate with is thinking the same thing: They have to move him, because they can't take the cap hit. If they can get more than one team involved in a bidding war, that starts to dissipate, but for now, I really don't think anyone interested in a QB is taking seriously the proposition that the Patriots are going to keep him. The only real way the Pats' FO can deal with this is to hope misinformation is out there. Or, at least, to promote an atmosphere where journalists speculate. So, I imagine we're going to see alot of this.

You're right--they can't afford him at $15M, but there is another possibility. . . .