Yards after catch

[VrabelMayeWin]

FYI - I do use my eyes.

I never said you didn't - but you also can't rely just on the stats. Both are important when used correctly. Cassel can, and does, throw just find up to 25 yards or so. He hasn't consistently, but I think he can, throw deep too. The stats give a big picture view but to use them and suggest Cassel is relying almost exclusively on YAC because he can't get the ball downfield is just not true.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

FYI - I do use my eyes.

Miguel is not Zip

 

[Miguel]

but to use them and suggest Cassel is relying almost exclusively on YAC because he can't get the ball downfield is just not true.

Where do I suggest that Cassel can't get the ball downfield??

 

[RayClay]

The other factor is Cassel was, surprisingly, amazingly effective at leading his receivers. Never - NEVER - did I expect Cassel to be so accurate in the short to medium routes. A lot of YAC are based on the receiver not having to slow down to make the catch and Cassel was tremendous at that.

Forget the stats - use your eyes. My eyes told me Cassel was really good. The fact that the stats say he was 10th best in the league merely back up what I saw.

That is a good point. I would agree that cassel hasn't proved it on long passes, but Brady didn't for a few years either.

[If that was indeed your point, Miguel.] My eyes tend to glaze over when I see all those statistics. Thank gawd for people like you.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Where do I suggest that Cassel can't get the ball downfield??

I'm not going to fight about it but it's how I read your post about Cassel's worth and showing stats about how many yards Cassel has after the catch.

 

[Miguel]

I'm not going to fight about it but it's how I read your post about Cassel's worth and showing stats about how many yards Cassel has after the catch.

Fair enough. I can't control how you infer posts.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Like the rest of you, I saw every pass he threw this season and can say unequicocable that he throws a really good ball up to about 25 yards. Plenty hard and extremely accurate. His deep balls were poor. But he threw several good ones showing that he can do it. I have a feeling that instead of relaxing when he had an open WR downfield, he got excited and messed up his throw. This would improve over time. As opposed to the quicker passes with tight coverage where he'd just have to throw it in without the time to react emotionally.

Interestingly enough, didn't Cassel say something to that effect back in the last game of the 2005 season? . . .

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The other factor is Cassel was, surprisingly, amazingly effective at leading his receivers. Never - NEVER - did I expect Cassel to be so accurate in the short to medium routes. A lot of YAC are based on the receiver not having to slow down to make the catch and Cassel was tremendous at that.

Forget the stats - use your eyes. My eyes told me Cassel was really good. The fact that the stats say he was 10th best in the league merely back up what I saw.

Matt Cassel: Week 1 highlights

At the end, they talk briefly about this very fact. And Cris Collinsworth, in the Week 11 JEST video says that Cassel can make the short/medium routes "all day," and that those passes were every bit as sharp as Brady's.

And here's a frightening thought--imagine Cassel with Brady's accuracy on the deep ball.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Thanks Miguel - good stuff.

I was thinking the other day looking at Gaffney's numbers from this season... wondering what his stats as the #2 WR (i.e. opposite side of Moss) indicate about his skills as typical all purpose including deep threat WR were heading into next season and whether an upgrade at #2 might be in order.

My honest conclusion was that I can't draw a conclusion based on this season. It's just too quirky a situation when a backup QB is called into the game and the play calling is simplified and adjusted accordingly - and that focusing too much on stats can work against you sometimes.

No doubt they kept Cassel's calls simple - but over time they loosened the reigns (and of course Cassel responded favorably throughout the season to this managed growth) - so overall when it comes to these or any stats for Cassel and his WRs it might be more beneficial to look at the last several games to see the trend.

In the Patriot's case even that's difficult given the weather conditions in each game - but I guess that's football for you - stats are great but the eyes are better - and sometimes even that's not good enough to draw any real conclusions from - what Cassel was for even the entire first half of the season isn't really what he is today.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Interestingly enough, didn't Cassel say something to that effect back in the last game of the 2005 season? . . .

I actually thought of that remembering a Bernie Kosar quote years ago when he was asked why his deep ball was so good and he said that on deep balls QB have more time to think and many get too excited whereas Kosar relaxed. We saw in the KC, SF and Indy (although Gaff dropped that one) games that Cassel can throw downfield nicely. In the next year or two I'm guessing he'll be more relaxed on them and let his correct mechanics take over.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I actually thought of that remembering a Bernie Kosar quote years ago when he was asked why his deep ball was so good and he said that on deep balls QB have more time to think and many get too excited whereas Kosar relaxed. We saw in the KC, SF and Indy (although Gaff dropped that one) games that Cassel can throw downfield nicely. In the next year or two I'm guessing he'll be more relaxed on them and let his correct mechanics take over.

Sorry--I should have been clearer: didn't Cassel say that, basically, he was overexcited on the two-point try at the end of that game?

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Sorry--I should have been clearer: didn't Cassel say that, basically, he was overexcited on the two-point try at the end of that game?

I have no idea about that - this was my independent thought, I didn't need Cassel's help

 

[ctpatsfan77]

what Cassel was for even the entire first half of the season isn't really what he is today.

I don't know how true that is, though. The QB we saw in the second-half of the season was there all along, it's just that he had to learn that he could be that QB all the time. For example, his first pass of the season, he was standing in the Pats' end zone, and made a very Brady-like stand and throw (ditto to end that 99-yard TD drive). And yet in the same game, he'd turn into the QB who as, Tom Curran apparently put it, had the "pocket presence of a squirrel."

By the Miami game, you could see him in that comfort zone--as Gil Santos put it ever so uneloquently:

"Empty backfield for Brady, three receivers--um, for Cassel."

[To use an idea admittedly drawn from a cartoon, it's like you could see the "16" on his uniform flipping to a "12" sometimes. ]

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

what Cassel was for even the entire first half of the season isn't really what he is today.

Here's his YPA by quarter of the season :

Sep : 6.22
Oct : 7.20
Nov : 7.15
Dec : 7.70

Understanding that YAC factors into YPA, he still clearly changed starting in October.

Brady's career average is 7.2 and through 2003 his career high was 6.9 - he won two SB at 6.9.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Here's his YPA by quarter of the season :

Sep : 6.22
Oct : 7.20
Nov : 7.15
Dec : 7.70

Understanding that YAC factors into YPA, he still clearly changed starting in October.

Brady's career average is 7.2 and through 2003 his career high was 6.9 - he won two SB at 6.9.

A perfect illustration of how stats can mean so little - a 1.5 YPC increase in Cassel's case - a .3 difference in Brady's case. And what does any this say about Cassel as a QB? Really, absolutely nothing.

 

[Deus Irae]

A perfect illustration of how stats can mean so little - a 1.5 YPC increase in Cassel's case - a .3 difference in Brady's case. And what does any this say about Cassel as a QB? Really, absolutely nothing.

Actually, it says pretty clearly that his passing was becoming more successful, yardage-wise, on a per catch basis.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Actually, it says pretty clearly that his passing was becoming more successful, yardage-wise, on a per catch basis.

That assumes the playcalling was consistent throughout the season.

Let me give you a "hypothetical" situation.

Let's say a backup QB is called to come into take over the season in game 1. Hypothetically let's say that QB hasn't started a games since, oh, I don't know, high school.

Let's also hypothetically assume that maybe the offensive line isn't playing up to snuff early in the season and said QB with limited starting experience doesn't have a lot of

Do you think the playcalling might involve a higher number of shorter passes, that might keep such numbers lower early on in his evolution?

There's no question that Cassel evolved and improved over time - but I'd be surprised if the early playcalling in the season had him throwing more mid to long passes in Game 1 than later in the season (and of course, with so many foul weather games late in the season we can't even expect to see stats of that nature in the Final Games period - though certainly the screen pass to Moss that he took 60 yards or so is going to have a nice impact on those YAC stats too)

Stats are nice but if I look at the stats from the Buffalo game, what conclusions can I draw about Cassel's ability to throw the deep pass? Which would you consider more important - the stats, or your eyeballs telling you that 60 mph gusts of wind might have played a role?

 

[Deus Irae]

That assumes the playcalling was consistent throughout the season.

Let me give you a "hypothetical" situation.

Let's say a backup QB is called to come into take over the season in game 1. Hypothetically let's say that QB hasn't started a games since, oh, I don't know, high school.

Let's also hypothetically assume that maybe the offensive line isn't playing up to snuff early in the season and said QB with limited starting experience doesn't have a lot of

Do you think the playcalling might involve a higher number of shorter passes, that might keep such numbers lower early on in his evolution?

There's no question that Cassel evolved and improved over time - but I'd be surprised if the early playcalling in the season had him throwing more mid to long passes in Game 1 than later in the season (and of course, with so many foul weather games late in the season we can't even expect to see stats of that nature in the Final Games period - though certainly the screen pass to Moss that he took 60 yards or so is going to have a nice impact on those YAC stats too)

Stats are nice but if I look at the stats from the Buffalo game, what conclusions can I draw about Cassel's ability to throw the deep pass? Which would you consider more important - the stats, or your eyeballs telling you that 60 mph gusts of wind might have played a role?

Like pretty much everything in life, statistics need context. It's not that they "can mean so little" as you assert, it's that they aren't definitive on their own. The mistake you make when you belittle statistics as you so often do is that you act as if the same is not true about "your eyeballs".

As for the Buffalo game, the statistics from one game don't really tell you any more, or any less, than the "eyeballs" from one game.

 

[godef]

I was asked in a separate thread my opinion of Cassel's worth. I contended that Cassel has greatly benefited from being on the same team as Moss and Welker. One such benefit is the yards after catch generated by his teammates.


STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Yards after Catch

STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Receiving Yards

STATS Hosted Solution - Football - NFL - Team Leaders - Passes Dropped

From the above I created the below table
Team Yards YAC PCT Drops
New England Patriots 3790 2154 56.83% 28
Washington Redskins 3291 1699 51.63% 28
New York Jets 3516 1808 51.42% 19
Tennessee Titans 2902 1459 50.28% 22
St. Louis Rams 3268 1615 49.42% 27
Oakland Raiders 2639 1302 49.34% 25
Chicago Bears 3229 1564 48.44% 25
San Francisco 49ers 3724 1782 47.85% 21
Houston Texans 4474 2134 47.70% 14
Buffalo Bills 3302 1569 47.52% 24
Minnesota Vikings 3217 1525 47.40% 24
New Orleans Saints 5069 2398 47.31% 30
Baltimore Ravens 3085 1454 47.13% 19
Arizona Cardinals 4875 2294 47.06% 26
Cincinnati Bengals 2677 1238 46.25% 31
Philadelphia Eagles 4060 1876 46.21% 33
Dallas Cowboys 3988 1831 45.91% 25
San Diego Chargers 4009 1840 45.90% 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3788 1736 45.83% 32
Cleveland Browns 2537 1136 44.78% 36
Seattle Seahawks 2831 1251 44.19% 31
Kansas City Chiefs 3358 1452 43.24% 22
Indianapolis Colts 4180 1748 41.82% 30
Miami Dolphins 3761 1566 41.64% 19
Denver Broncos 4545 1891 41.61% 34
Pittsburgh Steelers 3607 1498 41.53% 28
Jacksonville Jaguars 3620 1494 41.27% 40
Detroit Lions 3299 1353 41.01% 25
Green Bay Packers 4044 1656 40.95% 32
Atlanta Falcons 3440 1404 40.81% 23
Carolina Panthers 3288 1269 38.59% 24
New York Giants 3353 1250 37.28% 33

114766 52246 45.52% Average Drops - 26.46875

I have included the drops column because another poster opined that Cassel "suffered from a fairly impressive number of incompletions/INTs that were mostly the receivers' fault."

Yards after cach could also be indicative of accurate passing, delivering the ball such that the receiver doesn't have to break stride, which can enormously impact the YAC.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Like pretty much everything in life, statistics need context. It's not that they "can mean so little" as you assert, it's that they aren't definitive on their own. The mistake you make when you belittle statistics as you so often do is that you act as if the same is not true about "your eyeballs".

As for the Buffalo game, the statistics from one game don't really tell you any more, or any less, than the "eyeballs" from one game.

What I'm saying is that many statistics need a LOT of context.

Looking at the evolution of Cassel's passing stats from the start of the season through the end need to be taken with a pretty huge grain of salt.

First of all common sense would tell us that the playcalling was tailored to a short game early on - not unlike Brady in 2001.

Cassel's deep passing game looked like it left an awful lot to be desired even as of mid-season, but it seemed to me (i.e. my eyeballs) that as of November Cassel had actually turned the corner and was making a lot better throws.

Cassel, from what I saw, continued to evolve into a better, well rounded QB into December - however given the fact that there were so many foul weather games in December, the stats might not reflect that. It's kindof tough to pad your deep ball stats in 60 mph wind or driving rain - and likewise, your YAC stats are going to look a lot nicer when you throw a screen pass to Moss that gets run in for a 60 yard TD.

That doesn't mean the stats are always wrong or always lie - but when I see a discussion that's mostly stats oriented and ignores important items like early season playcalling for an inexperienced QB, and late season stats for games where the passing game was altered due to weather, I definitely default to the eyeball test.