Would/should BB have gone for it on 4th down?

[Patjew]

I would have kicked the FG, but I think BB would have gone for the TD. Of course, I trust BB's football smarts slightly more than my own.

 

[patchick]

You are basing your opinion on end-result though. The absolute optimal end-result is 4 runs and a TD. That takes maximal clock time and scores maximal points. But they cannot foresee a guaranteed score, the decision can only be based it odds and risk/reward.

Aren't we saying the same thing? I'm not assuming success, just saying that the only way to absolutely, positively put the game away in that situation was to run 3 or more running plays AND come away with a TD. So they gambled on that, with the downside being the possibility of ending up after 4 downs with a 3-point lead, Vikings ball on their own 1 yard line, <1 minute left. (Or, I guess, a 6-point lead and a kickoff with a little more time left.)

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Kicking the FG is a NO brainer. Only way BB goes for it there is if his kicker is hurt/terrible and/or maybe if his special teams is atrocious (neither are the case).

Of course I want to kick whoever decided to run the 2 QB-sneaks and force us into 3rd down!

I agree, someone needs to smack whoever called those QB sneaks. There was no reason for that. You run the ball and try to score and if you do, you ice the game. If you don't, you chew clock. Those sneaks were nowhere close to scoring, no surge, so what was the point? Why run Brady into their DL twice in a row? Just all sorts of stupid there.

It worked out in the end, but I've never been results-oriented so much as decision-oriented. If you make good decisions, the results tend to follow. And those were very questionable decisions. And if they think that's a good idea, there's no way in hell they could justify going for it on 4th down. I think BB kicks there if we're stopped based on those sneaks.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I'd probably go for the TD on that particular day. It seemed the Vikings were starting around the 35-40 on every KR. So you figure they are about 65 yards away from a TD (which wins them the game). If you miss the 4th down conversion and they start on their own 1, they still have to drive about 65 yards just to have a decent shot at a tying FG. The yardage needed is about the same, with the latter situation having a higher ceiling AND a higher floor for us.

Any other day where our KR coverage and Ghost were better I'd kick the FG. But Ghost was awful on the kickoffs yesterday and the coverage wasn't great either.

 

[AzPatsFan]

To me it isn't even a question. Of course the do it. It is the safest course of actions.

1) If you score, the game is over.
The Vikes face a 99 yard march to score a TD or a 80 yard march for a FGA. They may use clock to run once or twice to merely be able to get enough room to pass.

2) If you don't score here are the bad possibilities of alternatives.

a) a FGA might be blocked and a long return could be possible.

b) a good FG requires a KO. KOs have been returned for a long return.

c) KOs have been returned for a TD.

d) Assuming a normal return to the 25 yard line, they have a 75 yard march for a winning TD, 24 yards less.

e) They have only 50 yards to march for a FGA, if the FGA was bad.

The Pats wanted to score but not too soon. IMHO they tried to burn time off the clock, so they ran two QB sneaks. That play requires no RB hand off, and reduced the possibilities of a fumble. They then tried to score on 3rd and 4th down if necessary.

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

I figured that was BB's strategy......

I think it was misdirection orchestrated by BB's Genius.

look like you are weak on downs 1 and 2


downs 3 and 4 you get in the damn end zone. I really thought it was strategy even though the 4 downs we had did not follow typical standard play calling. BB went into this w/ the random and it worked. (all 4 downs were planned runs) to kill clock.

BB created a false sense of intentional weakness for down 1 and 2. His agenda the whole time was to score a TD.......... If somehow that failed the Vikes would have to march the field to beat us or 53 yds for a potential tie.

No way BB would have kicked a fg..... A kickoff would warrant Percy Harvin potentially returning it.... Percy can take it to the house w/ the best of em.


ppl will definately disagree w/ me but this was all strategy and tactics at work.

 

[WhiteWesWelker88]

let me add the clock factor and the 0 timeouts for the Vikes.......


This was all BB Brilliance.


If some how the Vikes got 53 yards the FG would be against that vicious wind.