@parsfanken and @longdistance, I’m interested in knowing a bit more about your assessment of Paris Johnson, Anton Harrison, Broderick Jones, and Peter Skoronski. Those 4 are the OT prospects that I’ve both watched myself (which doesn’t count very much but I enjoy trying to analyze prospects) and seen highest in the rankings. Based on recent history I think all 4 will be taken in the first round (whether they “should” or not).
Of those, I think currently that Johnson is the best LT prospect followed by Harrison and that Skoronski is the best lineman of the group but due to height and arm length is more likely to be a better guard than a tackle in the NFL. The one that is an enigma to me is Jones who is also not tall but I’ve been impressed with his agility which would make him a good match with Cole Strange.
Picking #14 is hopefully not something the Pats will need to do again for a while, so they need someone who can be an elite performer. The need for OT is critical but I’d rather see them use that pick for an elite CB, WR, LB, FS, or even … QB than on an OT prospect that isn’t all that much better
(if better at all) than guys like Bergeron, Wright, Duncan, or Freeland (and others that may emerge over the next couple months in this process).
If they do pick someone at another position in the first round, I think they will absolutely need to hit the bullseye on a LT in round 2, even if it means moving up in that round or even into the first round to do so.
I have no idea about the OT talent in the draft and if one might be there at 14. That being said I read that there are likely to be 4 or 5 OLmen that are good enough to draft in the first round. I was respond to a poster who didn't seem to think that there will be a sure thing OT at 14. I took him at his word since at this point I'm pretty clueless about this draft. He didn't think this class of OT's will be as good as some recent years.
As for is there OL talent in the draft. OF course there is. There always is, and some kid drafted in the 6th round will likely be an all pro after 3 years. So MG, do you have a OT you hope is there when the Pats go on the board? Start my education. Is this the year to trade down to the 20's? Is this a deep draft so picking up extra picks in the 2nd and 3rd round will be a good idea? OR should we be looking to move up into the top 10 (where we haven't been since Richard Seymour at 6 over 20 years ago.
I contend that the rarest athletes are the big guys on offense and defense. Really big fast guys are hard to find, but WR's seem to be found all thru the draft. The Sauce Gardner pick showed the impact of a "shut down" CB has on a defense. Are their a few in THIS draft worth following?
It is going to be a REALLY interesting off season this year with as many moves in the coaching department as there will be in FA. We have enough money I think to sign at least ONE immediate impact FA at some position. Is there a FA OT we should target?
I eagerly await your input
I THINK the question on the table is WILL there be an OT available that will be worth the 14th pick in the draft. I'd rather if another top quality pick is available at another position there do we take him, OR an OT that might be a good value at 25 but not at 14?
I have always been wondering about this aspect of the first round. The prevailing thought is that there are only 4-8 truly elite players in any draft. Then after that the next 9 to around 50 players are pretty much the same as far as their innate athletic ability is there. That was a comfort when we were always drafting in the high 20's or 30's
Now this gets me wondering if there ARE enough what you would call "elite" OT candidates available to get to 14, and if not, should the Pats simply try and trade down to pick up value in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, which CAN produce high value,
I think the BEARS are in great shape. The Alabama QB is likely to be the #1 pick and they will pick up a king's ransom from someone to move up to get him
So there's really no blue chips in the traditional sense but Paris Johnson and Darnell Wright will probably be tackles 1-2 on my board, definitely top 3-4.
Quick thoughts ...
Skoronski length issues show up on tape all over the place but he'll make a fantastic guard. Plus lateral movement, footwork, uses independent, anchor and ability to take care of the los before climbing. He's a good one but not a tackle.
Paris is someone I would bet on with a proper OL coach. Looks very athletic at times, very quick off the ball. Then you'll see him short step some reps and leave himself off balance. Those are few and far between. Not the norm but there. Overall very good jump sets, can get vertical easy. At times doesn't use his length to his advantage. Overall plus mobility, attitude and versatility. He's got a lot of room to grow but he's a versatile run blocker imo that could play in any scheme. Hes got power, agility and range. Hands could use work in pass pro. Needs to develop independent hands. He'll rely too much on his length on certain reps thinking he's able to make contact with two arms bc they're long but rushers at this and that level are too good. He does put together some great reps though there. Explosive off the ball, cuts off outside but foot speed and position don't leave him vulnerable to an inside move or games upfront. He needs work but he's good.
I love Darnell Wright. He's limited in some ways and probably always will be but you can work around a lot of stuff imo. Trent Brown isn't the most versatile run blocker and has had a nice career. Wright doesn't have the best range or mobility and more suited towards a power or mixed scheme imo but he's a NFL ready starter imo. Zone heavy teams will probably stay away bc hes not the most athletic guy especiallyin terms of consistently. He'll flash some nice reps but hes a mauler in the run game. He's able to be effective away from the los but he's not the quickest. Again they'll be occasional reps where he'll reach a 3T but it's mostly power, effort and attitude over technique in the run game. He's able to move people off the ball though. Effective off combos at times. Some of the best hands in the class. Grip strength is plus, if he gets a hold of you, its usually over. When he hits you, you move or slow down. Impressive hand strikes, faints, independent hands and again some pop. Shows off impressive snatch n trap. Plus anchor. Decent footwork really relies on patience, size, power and experience. He's got like 2800 reps between RT & LT. He's like 6'6/335 I think 320 would make a big difference in certain areas. Good feet buy could be quicker for sure overall rep to rep. Could play with better leverage. He's the leader on that line though and plays with attitude.
I've been high on Harrison for a while now and knee he'd "rise" especially in this class. He's for the most potential imo. He's a natural pass protector and loves burying defenders. Plus hands that vary attacks. Has some pop in his punch. Genuinely plays with good leverage but will bend at the waist on occasion. Let's his feet do most of the work and has some light plus footwork. Has to get stronger especially in his lower half. Isn't a people mover yet but plays with attitude there. Shows off some agility and power though. Again the potential is there and he's got some NFL ready traits today.
Jones is one of the more complete tackles in this particular class. Not a lot of glaring holes or concerns at all. Very good in space, athleticism shows up every time he's on the move. Plus mobility, range and location both getting to his spots and locating targets. Impressive actually small or large consistently hits his targets. Very poised, smart when it comes to handling twist upfront. Don't see him panicked or messy, usually balanced and composed. Doesn't do anything outstanding but again no big holes in his game. Footwork and feet could improve while engaged. At times he'll rely too much on his hands in pass pro. Could add a little more finish to his game. About what you'd expect from a UG tackle. Given up like 3 sacks and 15 hurries in two years.
Rough outlook ...
Middle-late RD 1
Darnell Wright/Paris Johnson
Late 1 - early 2
Broderick Jones/Anton Harrison
2nd
Matthew Bergeron
Dawand Jones
Blake Freeland
3rd
Carter Warren
Cody Mauch
4th - 5th
Tyler Steen
Jaelyn Duncan
Strength by position ...
Top heavy and deep
RB, TE, CB, Edge/Rush
Top heavy little depth
QB, C, LB
Above average to very good with some depth
WR, IDL, Tackle, Guard
Safety is probably the weakest position
In regards to the draft, you're right. You'll usually 2-5 "elite" prospects or w/e you want to call them. Its a very small number. Then you have about 10-20 guys with similar potential but that get pushed down slightly for we reason. Position value, size/character concerns. That's your 1st RD. Usually 10-20 guys that deserve that 1st RD value. Then I find you have the about 20-30 prospects with real 2nd RD value. About double the 1st. And you'll see the same thing happen with the 3rd RD that we see earlier. Guys with similar value to 2nd RD prospects but again size, character, athletic concerns. Maybe position concerns - tweeners. After that it's tough guys with low ceilings, limited prospects mixed in with some of the concerns earlier guys have and that makes up your 4th. No difference between a 5th-udfa so it's a "pick your guy" type deal between.
This obviously varies, right? It's all cycles. Like you'll have strong classes followed up with weak ones. Sometimes this catches up and have weaker classes but it's all in waves.
*Side note*
I'll say this again about WR's bc it was recently brought up by the media. If you look around the league and the top offenses they all have stud WR1 or very close to it.
Vikings - Jefferson
Miami - Hill
Buffalo - Diggs
Vegas - Adams
Cincinnati - Chase
Philly - Brown
SF Deebo
Rams - Kupp
KC - Kelce
Arizona - Hopkins
LAC - Allen/Williams
Tampa - Evans
Dallas - Lamb
Seattle - Metcalf
Detroit - St. Brown
All those teams are top 15 in points, passing yards and total yards. They obviously have some of the best QB's and OL but they all invest in the position and make it a point to have or aquire a WR1 and WR2. You have Kittle, Waller, Godwin, Aiyuk, Lockett etc.
Even Christian Kirk had a positive effect on Lawrence and Zay Jones.
And it's not like we haven't tried to upgrade the position. Brown, Gordon, Harry, Sanu resent. So we're obviously trying but haven't hit yet. This is particularly important bc no matter if we're running a strict EP, modified, simplified version. We're asking a lot out of the QB position from a cerebral aspect and anyone not named Brady, Manning, Mahomes etc needs a lot of help no matter how you slice it. I've been seeing a trade coming at WR and would be shocked if we didn't make one tbh. We already have a development in Thornton so I'm expecting a trade for a established vet.
*Other side note*
I think these are the most likely picks
at this point.
CB/DB
Gonzalez, Smith, Porter, Witherspoon, Phillips, Branch
Tackle - Johnson, Wright, Jones, Harrison
WR - Johnston, JSN
DL - Bresee/Wilson
LB - Simpson
Wildcards
QB - Richardson
Saf - Antonio Johnson
RB - Robinson
WR - Boutte
*Other side note*
Lots of Bill O'Brien talk. Here are some #'s on what Bill ran at Bama. Not much PA. Somewhat predictable in the redzone and run game imo.
Someone shared this with me from From Football Outsiders
Inside Zone Read - 14.4%, 47.29% Success Rate.
Flood Variations - 7.48% usage, 47.76% Success Rate
Inside Power - 6.47%, 51.72% Success Rate
Outside Zone Read - 6.03% of all play calls, 48.15% Success Rate
Outside Zone (no read) - 5.8% usage, 40.38% Success Rate
Inside Zone Read, 10.76% of all yards, 670 yards, 5.19 yards/play
Flood Variations, 551 yards, 8.85%, 8.22 yards/play
Outside Zone Read, 7.95%, 495 yards, 9.17 yards/play
Texas Concepts (HB Option)/Clearouts/Checkdowns 5.84%, 364 yards, 10.11 yards/play
Stick, 4.99% of all yards at 311 yards, at 8.64 yards/play
Anything is an upgrade over last season but a lot of smart Bama fans have np seeing Bill leave. Personally I don't think he was bad just not as creative as you'd expect but successful. You can't win every year.
