Wins = a team stat or QB stat?

[Ring 6]

I agree when the QB is Brady but would you give the same credit to Trent Dilfer?

dilfer won for half of a season. Brady has won for 16 years.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree when the QB is Brady but would you give the same credit to Trent Dilfer?

Dilfrr was 11-1 with Baltimore and 52-55 the rest of his life.
Brady is 7-1 this year and 194-60 the rest of his career

Yeah they get the same credit

 

[BradyFTW!]

It's both. There's lots of evidence that an elite QB is pretty much the only asset that can reliably make a team outperform its pythagorean expectation. In other words, wins are a team stat, but an elite QB has a hugely disproportionate affect on wins. As a result, it becomes a QB stat as well, in a way that you can't argue for any other position.

 

[Brewskies]

WINS: for me wins equal TEAM

TEAM: is from the owner down to waterboy

QB: certainly is a major factor in football


.

 

[Ring 6]

It's both. There's lots of evidence that an elite QB is pretty much the only asset that can reliably make a team outperform its pythagorean expectation. In other words, wins are a team stat, but an elite QB has a hugely disproportionate affect on wins. As a result, it becomes a QB stat as well, in a way that you can't argue for any other position.

It applies to other positions just not as closely.
There is no doubt ray Lewis contributed to the success Baltimore had while he was there.
Brandon Marshall on the other hand goes from team to team most who won before he gets there and after he leaves and has never played on a team made the playoffs. It's silly to discount that his attitude and failures in the clutch don't hold his teams back.
Many made similar arguments about Richie incognito.
There are many players that while they can't win alone absolutely add to their team due to leadership attitude etc. Rodney Harrison is one that comes to mind.

 

[BradyFTW!]

It applies to other positions just not as closely.
There is no doubt ray Lewis contributed to the success Baltimore had while he was there.
Brandon Marshall on the other hand goes from team to team most who won before he gets there and after he leaves and has never played on a team made the playoffs. It's silly to discount that his attitude and failures in the clutch don't hold his teams back.
Many made similar arguments about Richie incognito.
There are many players that while they can't win alone absolutely add to their team due to leadership attitude etc. Rodney Harrison is one that comes to mind.

Sure, there are lots of players at lots of positions that contribute to their team winning, but that's not what I was referring to. In all other cases, the extent to which a player helps his team is directly factored into its pythagorean expectation. Good defenders mean you allow fewer points. Good offensive players lead to more points scored. With those increases in points, your predicted wins increase correspondingly, since that's fundamentally all the pythagorean expectation is. Based on points scored and points against, you can reasonably project what a team's record will end up being. In cases where the actual win total differentiates from that, you're usually looking at a team that disproportionately benefited from (or was screwed by) random chance. These teams are prime regression/rebound candidates the following season, because a team's ability to outperform its pythagorean expectation is more or less random and cannot be reliably replicated year over year.

With one exception: teams that have elite QBs consistently, year after year, outperform their Pythagorean expectations. Yes, with an elite QB, your points scored will rise, and that will lead to an increased win expectancy in its own right. But elite quarterbacks are entirely unique in that, if you have one, it can be expected that you'll outperform your win expectancy even after accounting for points for / against. It's a weird phenomenon, but it really speaks to what makes great QBs great. Specifically, that QBs are the leader of the team and the best of them have a noted tendency to perform when it matters most. 7 points in garbage time and 7 minutes when you're down 4 with a minute and a half left count the same in your pythagorean expectation, but one matters a whole lot more to your prospects of winning than the other.

After years of observation, the people who observe this stuff (namely Football Outsiders) have noted that elite QBs alone have this impact on their teams. It's the only position that creates an observable increase in wins that goes above and beyond a direct, straightforward impact on points scored.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Certainly is a team sport however the QB tends to be a difference maker. He needs a good line, runners, receivers, as well as contributions from the other team phases and the coaches.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Its both. Teams win games, but QBs are by far most responsible for winning, they have an inordinate amount of the success lying in their hands.
Over time, all the other things even out (supporting cast, injuries, etc) and wins is the most important stat for a QB. After all that is the reason you play, and stats accumulated while losing are totally useless.

As Belichick says, the quarterback's job is to win.

This can be a frustrating thing to analyze, when you see super-talented players like Manning, Elway, Moon and Fouts and you do not see the wins, or titles, you might expect. Interesting that the titles Manning and Elway won were when their teams were not depending on them so much.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

for brady wins and losses are only thing that matters. not my word. brady said that.

it's the ultimate team game, yes. but if you don't win guess what happens? you either get benched or traded.

winning is only thing that matters to QB. because it is only thing that matters to the team.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

also in my opinion great QBs wins you 2-3 games a year you are supposed to lose. that's huge. what's the difference between a 9-7 almost wild card team and a 12-4 1st round bye team? usually it's the QB.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

What differentiates Brady from Marino?

I'm asking this like you have this huge database and I'm assigned to run a SQL query to support it. And yes, I could crunch the numbers and prove Brady is better than Marino.

I would probably take all QBs and take just their playoff games, then use their winning percentage. Yes, Brady has been in a lot of playoffs, but he's won when he gets there. I don't need to run a query to prove he's better than Romo.

I think you would want something more sophisticated than that. Also factor in 3rd down conversions, percentage of scoring drives, fumbles, interceptions, big plays, etc. This would be an attempt to express in statistics how a Brady wins in a pressure situation, while a Romo loses....both QBs have pretty stats, but there is a way to quantify that gut feeling Brady is clearly better.

 

[Ring 6]

What differentiates Brady from Marino?

I'm asking this like you have this huge database and I'm assigned to run a SQL query to support it. And yes, I could crunch the numbers and prove Brady is better than Marino.

I would probably take all QBs and take just their playoff games, then use their winning percentage. Yes, Brady has been in a lot of playoffs, but he's won when he gets there. I don't need to run a query to prove he's better than Romo.

I think you would want something more sophisticated than that. Also factor in 3rd down conversions, percentage of scoring drives, fumbles, interceptions, big plays, etc. This would be an attempt to express in statistics how a Brady wins in a pressure situation, while a Romo loses....both QBs have pretty stats, but there is a way to quantify that gut feeling Brady is clearly better.

People are obsessed with statistics.
Statistics are simply a way to judge something you aren't good at judging yourself. Results speak for themselves.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

People are obsessed with statistics.
Statistics are simply a way to judge something you aren't good at judging yourself. Results speak for themselves.

Nobody is questioning if Brady has results - they are compelling.

Stats can explain "why" in concrete terms. It might be hard to find the stats, but they are there and whether it's 3rd down conversions or something else(s), he's doing it better than the rest.