Will Tom Brady Pass Johnny Unitas in 2011?

[goheels22002]

While 30 touchdowns is obviously more common than it used to be, it's still fairly uncommon; in other words, I would not assume that it is going to happen.


2010: five players
Brady (36); Manning, Brees (33); Eli, Rivers (30)

2009: four players
Brees (34); Favre, Manning (33); Rodgers (30)

2008: three players
Brees, Rivers (34); Warner (30)

2007: four players
Brady (50); Romo (36); Roethlisberger (32); Manning (31)

2006: one player
Manning (31)

2005: one player
Palmer (32)

2004: four players
Manning (49); Culpepper (39); McNabb (31); Favre (30)

2003: one player
Favre (32)

2002: none
(Brady led league with 28)


The NFL is averaging just four players per year with 30 touchdowns over the last four seasons, and three per year since 2004. To me that's a small enough amount that I would not bet on any one specific player passing for at least 30 touchdowns - even a player as good as Brady.

Boy, that 50 TD season sticks out. Amazing year.

Also odd to think about is 2005 with Carson Palmer (on ice and his brother cut) as the only 30+ TD passer. That was also Chad Ochocinco's best year in several receiving categories - 97 receptions, 1430 yards, 9 TDs, 71 first downs.

If Ocho could deliver a year like that and Welker/Branch/Gronkowski/Hernandez could approximate last year, Brady will make his 31 with ease. Gronk/Hernandez delivered 16TDs last season as rookies.