In hindsight this is all true, but that’s if you take into account what both Brady and Belichick have done since parting ways.
As a reminder: it’s a fact that the Patriots had tied for second highest Super Bowl odds for the 2020 season, in February 2020. So that was after their disappointing second half and playoff loss. The Bucs were 80:1. On the day Brady signed with Tampa Bay, both teams had almost the exact same over/under win totals for the 2020 season. Just before the season, with Tampa Bay’s additions, they were favored to do a little better than New England, but it was close. After week 1, when the Saints thumped the Bucs and the Patriots beat the Dolphins, and even after week 2 when the Patriots nearly neat the Seahawks, there plenty of victory laps by the Boston media that the Patriots had simply pugged and played with Newton without major drop-off, while Tampa Bay’s undisciplined, deep pass loving, o-line struggling foibles were well documented. I remember one article saying don’t feel bad for Brady because he asked for it.
So let’s look at what happened from February 2020 to now.
Bucs
- The Bucs signed Rob Gronkowski, due to Brady.
- The Bucs signed Antonio Brown, due to Brady.
- The Bucs signed Leonard Fournette, who took less to play for the Bucs.
- The offense was changed, after a 7-5 start, with Brady taking more control of the offense. The changes clicked almost immediately as they focused on shorter passes opening up the big plays.
- The offensive line benefitted significantly from Brady.
- The Bucs drafted Tristan Wirfs and Antoine Winfield Jr.
Patriots
- Jarrett Stidham, Brady’s supposed replacement, was terrible. The Patriots were fortunate to get Cam Newton as an alternative, though he was terrible. In both cases, the prior belief that “the system” would always make the offense at least competent was obliterated.
- The wide receivers/tight ends expected to make that second year leap didn’t happen. Harry busted. When Brady left, people even thought Sanu was coming back and would contribute after healing up.
- The Patriots, despite in hindsight claiming otherwise, loaded up with veterans like McCourty, Thuney, Slater, etc. and increased Gilmore’s base salary. They didn't sign or trade for young players or draft picks.
- The Patriots were favored to win 8-9 games, but they fell apart. They were supposedly too well coached to get blown out, but they got blown out unexpectedly several times. They were supposed to get better as the season went on, but they got worse. Opposite of Tampa.
- The Patriots younger, drafted players who were supposed to step up and become key pieces did nothing of the sort. It‘s easy to look at it now and wave your arms, but many thought they’d get some breakthroughs from Harry, Michel, Bentley, Joejuan, Winovich, etc. After Brady left, the team drafted Asiasi and Keene, along with Uche and Dugger. These guys have been, to say the least, not close to the same impact level as Wirfs or Winfield.
So it’s easy to look back now and claim how the Patriots were such a disaster, but that’s missing that Bill has contributed to the problems even after the time Brady left. The idea of reloading in 2020 involved savvy drafting, smart free agency signings geared towards the future, superior coaching advantages, etc. Besides Jones, they’ve continued with a series of bad player acquisitions. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, had a promising young roster but has gotten significantly better since Brady joined. It’s all hindsight to say the Bucs were so much better positioned to win, and in addition, Patriots fans were taken aback by Brady’s desire to have personnel input. That’s helped them tremendously.