Why the Pats should be concerned about Cincy's offense

[FlyingElvis75]

Agreed - what concerns me is that the ONLY real chance Cincy has of winning is to get into a shootout. I'd guess we could still come out on top, but anything can happen in a game like that; just ask the Browns.

 

[BAM!]

The fact that the Pats have played against teams that are weak on O (so far) and allowed them to score is concerning.

The red-zone D is not what it has been in the past. IIRC, when the opposing team gets in the red-zone, the Pats have not stopped them from scoring a TD. Granted it has only been a total of 5 red-zone trips (and 5 TD's allowed) for the other teams combined but none of those teams have an O like Cinci.

This is going to be their test this week.

 

[stinkypete]

On;y 3 weeks have gone by, so one-third of the Jets and Chargers offensive output as come against us. Of course their stats are going to suck because we dominated those games.

 

[FlyingElvis75]

On;y 3 weeks have gone by, so one-third of the Jets and Chargers offensive output as come against us. Of course their stats are going to suck because we dominated those games.

In the original post I only presented their stats vs. other teams, not us. That was the point...

 

[spacecrime]

Cinci has lost 5 of their last 6 games. The only game they won (Ravens), it took a bad ref call of offensive pass interference on Todd Heap for them to win (Pereira admitted on NFLN that it shouldn't have been called).

The Jests are a better team than the Bengals at this point. If it wasn't for the fact that Chad is charismatic, they would be ranked lower.

Look for another 38-14 yawner.

 

[letekro]

The fact that the Pats have played against teams that are weak on O (so far) and allowed them to score is concerning.

The red-zone D is not what it has been in the past. IIRC, when the opposing team gets in the red-zone, the Pats have not stopped them from scoring a TD. Granted it has only been a total of 5 red-zone trips (and 5 TD's allowed) for the other teams combined but none of those teams have an O like Cinci.

This is going to be their test this week.

It's concerning that we've allowed NFL teams to score an average of 11 pts a game????? I think if we kept that up for the whole season, it would be an NFL record. I have no idea what you mean here.

As for the Jets and Chargers being weak offensively, I think that is premature to say. The Chargers have faced three top 10 defenses, and they have moved the ball at will on us in the past. The Jets just put up 31 on the dolphins, had their backup in against the Ravens, and moved the ball pretty well against us until Chad got hurt. At the worst, I would say they are average offenses.

As for the bengals, they have a plodding back and no tight end. As we traditionally have trouble covering tight ends and dynamic backs out of the backfield, I'm not so worried about their O.

 

[TruthSeeker]

I think there's a pretty decent shot that we hold them to 14 or less.

We beat them 38-13 last year.

:rocker:

I'm predicting 38-13 even though I had forgotten about last year.

 

[Mogamedogz]

Some good research there!

It should be interesting to see if Hobbs or Asante match up on Ocho Cinco.

If they single cover CJ with either of those guys...we are in some big trouble.

 

[patsox23]

I suspect the Pats defensive scheme will lean towards taking away the big play. I'd be surprised if red-zone D will not be much improved this week, and it's also just the smarter approach against such an explosive defense - especially when you consider the likelihood of OUR offense marching up and down the field on them.

 

[Flying Fungi]

if Derek Anderson can do what they did to the Bengals...I feel comfortable in saying that we don't even need to bring our defense Monday night...

 

[makoute]

Hi all...longtime lurker here, just thought I'd share some thoughts on the upcoming game vs. the Bengals.

Below are major defensive stats for the Pats so far:

Stat (NFL Rank)
Points per Game: 11.7 (2nd)
Total Yards per Game: 207 (1st)
Pass Yards per Game: 133 (2nd)
Rush Yards per Game: 74 (4th)
First Downs per Game: 14 (2nd)

As we know, those are pretty nice, but how much do they mean, especially in terms of rankings? The first thing many people do when they see gaudy stats like that is to question the quality of the opposition.

The Bills are obviously in bad shape, but the media has made a lot of the fact that the Jets and Chargers were playoff teams last year, and they especially emphasize that SD was on top of the league and had very little player turnover. But we all know that last year means squat this year, so what are they REALLY like this year?

Well, one thing to look at is how the Jets, Chargers, and Bills have played against opponents other than the Pats. The following are the offensive stats for the Jets, Chargers, and Bills in the six games in which they have NOT played NE, as well as what their NFL ranking would be if they were a single team:

Pts/G: 16.5 (25th)
TY/G: 294 (25th)
PY/G: 203 (20th)
RY/G: 91 (22nd)
FD/G: 18 (19th)

Not exactly elite numbers there - in fact, they're around the bottom of the league in every category. In short, our opponents' offenses have been terrible so far this year, even when we're not playing them. Yes, the Bills suck and will drag any average down, but the averages for the Jets and Chargers alone are not much better:

Pts/G: 20.5 (17th)
TY/G: 339 (16th)
PY/G: 256 (10th)
RY/G: 83 (28th)
FD/G: 21 (5th)

Now take a look at Cincinnati's offense through three games:

Pts/G: 31 (4th)
TY/G: 393 (5th)
PY/G: 301 (2nd)
RY/G: 92 (21st)
FD/G: 23 (2nd)

It seems like our D has looked good so far in some part because the competition has been pretty awful. Granted, the Bengals have played mostly cream puffs so far and the Chargers have had probably the toughest schedule of anyone on this list, but it seems like Monday may show us whether our D can stand up to a real test (without Seymour and Harrison).

But we probably all figured that, anyway.

On the bright side, the D has made those opponents' offenses look even worse than they otherwise are...they've allowed 4.8 fewer Pts/G, 87/70/17 fewer Total/Pass/Rush Yds/G, and 4 fewer FD/G.

Did you take out the Cleveland game?

 

[FlyingElvis75]

No, because (as I mentioned in post #17) I was primarily looking at games vs. the Pats versus games not vs. the Pats.

However, even without the Cleveland game, they averaged 24 pts, which is still better than the average vs. non-Pats for NYJ/SD/BUF (16.5) and NYJ/SD alone (20.5). 24 Pts/G would rank them about 12th right now.