Who should have the Patriots taken at 48 instead of Wilson

[mayoclinic]

Directed at no one in particular - applicable not only to this threat but many other threads in the draft forum:

It continually never ceases to amaze me how people can look at draft picks and their future sucess in the NFL - and then 'pin' that sucess or failure onto the person(s) that drafted them. There are probably 100 different factors that go into the future persons sucess (or lack their of) that occur AFTER the selection is made. So why then do we put so much stock into blaming the person(s) making the pick if the player doesn't pan out ??

Players future NFL performace affected by:

position coach, other players (at their position) in front of them (if a starter is injured and then the rookie is thrust into the starting lineup too early), players fit to scheme, players ability to absorb that particular playbook (maybe same terminolgy to college then again maybe completely different), other players on the team either helping or hindering the players growth, coaching changes, injuries, players attitude, fit with the team chemistry, work ethic, players abilty to take criticism, friends on the team (good influence or bad influence), respect for authority, players external friends (posse), players significant other, parents, ego, self confidence, able to handle large influx of money, so on and so on.

Just the last one alone - how many of us would work as hard at our particular jobs if we just received a large multi-million dollar bonus. Would we not feel a sense of entitlement?

With all of those factors AND MORE - that occur AFTER the player gets drafted, and yet we all want to either praise or critiize the people making the pick. Newsflash: some picks pan out and some don't and those players that don't - it doesn't mean that pick was a bad one. Many things happen to the player AFTER the pick is made - some positive and some negative. So lets just keep things in perspective before we pretend we know more than those people who have 100 times more access to information and do this daily for a living. And realize that many forces will occur AFTER the pick is made that will either make or break the players NFL career.

This seems like a nice seque to 2 of my all-time favorite quotes on the subject. The first is from none other than our own Andy Johnson, from this board 2+ years ago:

When all is said and done, every draft choice is simply a work in progress who must progress astronomically beyond where they are on the day they are drafted in many areas, including:

-Working out to become bigger,stronger, and faster
-Improving techniques because top picks can getby in college on ability and weak technique, but can't in the pros
-Being a professional football player, including staying out of trouble, nutrition, lifestyle, dedication, etc Again a top player can party all night in college and still get by on talent, but will flop in the NFL
-Adapting to the differences between the college and pro game
-Dealing with the fact that it is much harder in the NFL, that you have a battle against everyone you line up against. In college maybe 10% of the guys you face are good enough to make it to the NFL and they are 20 now you are facing 27 year olds who are 7 years bigger, stronger and technically sound

In the end, you need a crystal ball to know what the raw product you draft will evolve into. Thats why half the picks bust, not because their ability was poorly assessed, but because they did not progress (or progress enough) AFTER being drafted. If it were possible to determine commitment, discipline and will before the draft, players would end up performing in the order they were drafted and there would be no busts.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../339920-do-we-really-know-short-excerpt.html (post #2)

Some of the things on Andy's list are things that the Pats emphasize starting with OTAs and offseason workouts and conditioning. Players who come in to training camp behind may have already lost the battle.

The second is from Maurice Jones-Drew almost exactly 2 years ago, writing as a guest columnist for Peter King's MMQB column on CNNSI:

Mediocrity or greatness? That is the question.

The NFL consists of the world's most superior athletes .... Whether we're talking about superstars like Peyton Manning and Tom Brady or the 53rd player on a roster, the athletic and physical ability of NFL players is nothing short of phenomenal. With that said, there is still a very clear split between players considered "NFL good" and those considered "NFL great."

Why is that? In my brief four years in the NFL, I've come to believe the answer to this question rests with "want-to." In other words, because the talent level of most NFL players is so high, the question of greatness ultimately boils down to whether players "want to" do the things necessary to be great. While many criticize certain players like Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco for their off-the-field antics, no one can question their commitment to excellence on the field. Their work ethic and preparation are second to none.

These players and others who are considered the best at their respective positions indeed are blessed with god-given abilities, but they don't rest on these talents. They work to maximize them. While others are sleeping or partying, the great ones are running hills, lifting weights and studying film. They do this not because a coach has instructed them to do so. They do it because they simply desire to be the very best.

Most people never see the sacrifice these players make to pursue greatness. They only see the finished product on game day. But rest assured that any player on the field whose performance separates him from his peers has made that possible because of the willingness to push himself to his physical and mental limits. ... The formula has always been and always will be the same: Talent + "Want-To" = Greatness.

Now, although the formula appears rather simple, in actuality it's pretty complex. The decision to pursue greatness can be a scary one for a couple of reasons. First, the physical and mental sacrifice required is enough to make many shy away from making the commitment. I'm talking about a true grind. ... For many, just the thought of having to pay such a huge price is enough to bail on greatness and simply get by.

Second, the pursuit of greatness forces the athlete to put his ego aside and face the limitations of his athletic ability. ... That's some heavy stuff to consider for a professional athlete. In some ways it's understandable why many players would rather not have those questions answered. Instead, they accept mediocrity, especially when average pay at the NFL level is pretty darn good.

Maurice Jones-Drew*fills in for Peter King's Monday Morning QB - Maurice Jones-Drew - SI.com

Talent is key, but in many ways there's little difference between a 1st round pick and a 7th rounder or even a UDFA. The Wes Welkers and James Harrisons of the world push through their limitations and drive themselves to greatness, whereas the Chad Jacksons and Shawn Crables of the world accept them and flounder in mediocrity (or worse). It's a crapshoot, so diversifying makes sense, and picking players who show signs of a superior work ethic, drive to succeed, and ability to deal with adversity make sense. It's consistent with picking Tavon Wilson over Trumaine Johnson. And signing a few "try harder" guys like Jesse Holley to compete with them also makes sense.

 

[patchick]

Talent is key, but in many ways there's little difference between a 1st round pick and a 7th rounder or even a UDFA. The Wes Welkers and James Harrisons of the world push through their limitations and drive themselves to greatness, whereas the Chad Jacksons and Shawn Crables of the world accept them and flounder in mediocrity (or worse). It's a crapshoot, so diversifying makes sense, and picking players who show signs of a superior work ethic, drive to succeed, and ability to deal with adversity make sense. It's consistent with picking Tavon Wilson over Trumaine Johnson. And signing a few "try harder" guys like Jesse Holley to compete with them also makes sense.

Great stuff. And as SunnyDenmark emphasized, even with the perfect meeting of talent and drive, "fit" looms large. (Remember that Welker and Harrison were cut by their first teams even faster than Jackson and Crable!)

"Fit" goes beyond just how well the player's strengths match the team's scheme and personality. It's also about timing -- who else do they have with a similar skillset? Does their roster give them the luxury of developing this player? Etc.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great stuff. And as SunnyDenmark emphasized, even with the perfect meeting of talent and drive, "fit" looms large. (Remember that Welker and Harrison were cut by their first teams even faster than Jackson and Crable!)

"Fit" goes beyond just how well the player's strengths match the team's scheme and personality. It's also about timing -- who else do they have with a similar skillset? Does their roster give them the luxury of developing this player? Etc.

NFL.com had two reports today of 1st round rookies who are off to somewhat shaky starts with their respective teams. First, former Alabama CB Dre Kirkpatrick, taken #17 overall by Cincinnati, who apparently didn't check or didn't care that Kirkpatrick didn't know how to backpedal:

Rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick isn't being asked to start right away for the Cincinnati Bengals. That might be a good thing. The team's first-round pick excelled at Alabama, but entered the pros missing one important on-field skill. "I never backpedaled," he told the Bengals' official site.

Kirkpatrick played a lot of press man coverage in a Cover 2 scheme under Nick Saban. He said he wasn't asked to sit back and read receivers on their routes. All of this has made his first offseason in Cincinnati an adventure. "It didn't look pretty," Kirkpatrick said of his first three days of practice with the team.

Coach Marvin Lewis and his defensive staff are impressed with Kirkpatrick's development, but he won't be rushed into action.

Dre Kirkpatrick: 'I never backpedaled' at Alabama - NFL.com

I must say, I find the idea of an "elite" college CB who doesn't know how to back-pedal mind-boggling.

Second, former Illinois WR AJ Jenkins, taken #30 overall by San Francisco, is reportedly struggling and is currently around 5th on the depth chart:

rookie wide receiver A.J. Jenkins might find himself fifth on the team's depth chart entering training camp, The Press Democrat reported Saturday. In a review of the Niners minicamp last week, the newspaper called Jenkins, the team's top pick in the draft, the "biggest letdown."

"He didn't play with the first- or second-team offense on Tuesday, and he didn't catch a pass in scrimmages on Wednesday," the newspaper noted. "He had trouble staying on his feet all three days, which was odd considering it was a non-contact minicamp."

A.J. Jenkins struggles at San Francisco 49ers minicamp - NFL.com

It's still early, and both Kirkpatrick and Jenkins may turn out to be studs. Both have plenty of athletic talent. But work ethic and drive to succeed will play at least as much a factor.

There are no sure things in the NFL, no matter how high a player is picked. For every Peyton Manning there's a Ryan Leaf or Jamarcus Russell. The odds on any player reaching the expectations of the level at which he was drafted is probably not much more than 50%.

 

[mayoclinic]

Continuing on Andy's theme that "every draft choice is simply a work in progress who must progress astronomically beyond where they are on the day they are drafted in many areas", Tampa Bay DT Gerald McCoy now credits Greg Schiano for teaching him how to tackle:

McCoy told the Tampa Tribune that he never had a coach show him proper tackling technique until he started playing for Schiano this offseason. “We do a tackling circuit before every practice, and I’ve never done anything like that before,” McCoy said. “I realize now that, before, I was just playing football. Now, I’m really learning how to tackle and I think it’s going to help me a lot.”

Gerald McCoy says Schiano’s drills are teaching him how to tackle | ProFootballTalk

So here's a kid who was drafted #3 overall and who the Bucs paid $63M/5 years, who couldn't tackle, and still can't 2 years later. A tackle who can't tackle. Great. And McCoy's productivity over his first 2 years shows it. So many of these kids are drafted based on superior athleticism that allows them to succeed at the college level, and then they don't know how to develop good technique and adjust to the pro game.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I'm reminded of a quote from the guide I received when I signed up to do admissions interviews for my alma mater.

It seems just as apt here:

"It's is not about comparing apples to oranges. It's about comparing apples to oranges and deciding which one, when fed to a cow, will produce the tastier steak years down the road.

 

[patchick]

Tampa Bay DT Gerald McCoy now credits Greg Schiano for teaching him how to tackle

Wow. That's just...wow.

McCoy played for Bob Stoops at Oklahoma, right? Can't help but notice that BB has never drafted a player from that program.

 

[BaltimorePatsFan]

Honestly they could have taken Jake Bequette at 48 and that still would have been a much better pick.

 

[JackBauer]

Honestly they could have taken Jake Bequette at 48 and that still would have been a much better pick.

We're talking about the Patriots here, not the Jets.

 

[Ivan]

Honestly they could have taken Jake Bequette at 48 and that still would have been a much better pick.

Really? Explain how it would have made more sense to take a player at 48 that they were able to get much later.................?


Would it have made mores sense to take Dennard there as well?


The hate on Wilson is really ridiculous. Kiper didn't like him, oh well, get over it.

 

[patchick]

Really? Explain how it would have made more sense to take a player at 48 that they were able to get much later.................?


Would it have made mores sense to take Dennard there as well?

That is funny, isn't it? Bequette and Dennard would have been more popular picks at 48 because Wilson "probably would have been available later." But Bequette and Dennard actually WERE available later!

All in all, I'd call the package of Wilson, Bequette, Dennard, Ebner and Ebert a solid haul for 48 + 63. They should be in excellent position to come away with at least one major contributor and one moderate contributor from that group, which is a terrific yield.

 

[Snapper]

That is funny, isn't it? Bequette and Dennard would have been more popular picks at 48 because Wilson "probably would have been available later." But Bequette and Dennard actually WERE available later.

This is the money quote of the thread. In the end, it doesn't matter to these folks who the Pats draft; just that they do following some arbitrary collective wisdom that likely doesn't reflect the collective wisdom of the teams doing the actual picking. In order for Bequette to be a better choice at 48, we've now condemned all the other teams that didn't pick him between 48 and where he finally got selected.

 

[DaBruinz]

That is funny, isn't it? Bequette and Dennard would have been more popular picks at 48 because Wilson "probably would have been available later." But Bequette and Dennard actually WERE available later!

All in all, I'd call the package of Wilson, Bequette, Dennard, Ebner and Ebert a solid haul for 48 + 63. They should be in excellent position to come away with at least one major contributor and one moderate contributor from that group, which is a terrific yield.

There you go talking sense, again, Patchick.. When will you learn that sense doesn't matter to Fred and BPF. Only their opinions on how bad the Pats did is what matters..

 

[State]

Directed at no one in particular - applicable not only to this threat but many other threads in the draft forum:

It continually never ceases to amaze me how people can look at draft picks and their future sucess in the NFL - and then 'pin' that sucess or failure onto the person(s) that drafted them. There are probably 100 different factors that go into the future persons sucess (or lack their of) that occur AFTER the selection is made. So why then do we put so much stock into blaming the person(s) making the pick if the player doesn't pan out ??

Players future NFL performace affected by:

position coach, other players (at their position) in front of them (if a starter is injured and then the rookie is thrust into the starting lineup too early), players fit to scheme, players ability to absorb that particular playbook (maybe same terminolgy to college then again maybe completely different), other players on the team either helping or hindering the players growth, coaching changes, injuries, players attitude, fit with the team chemistry, work ethic, players abilty to take criticism, friends on the team (good influence or bad influence), respect for authority, players external friends (posse), players significant other, parents, ego, self confidence, able to handle large influx of money, so on and so on.

Just the last one alone - how many of us would work as hard at our particular jobs if we just received a large multi-million dollar bonus. Would we not feel a sense of entitlement?

With all of those factors AND MORE - that occur AFTER the player gets drafted, and yet we all want to either praise or critiize the people making the pick. Newsflash: some picks pan out and some don't and those players that don't - it doesn't mean that pick was a bad one. Many things happen to the player AFTER the pick is made - some positive and some negative. So lets just keep things in perspective before we pretend we know more than those people who have 100 times more access to information and do this daily for a living. And realize that many forces will occur AFTER the pick is made that will either make or break the players NFL career.

Great stuff, Sunny.

This is exactly what the Green Bay GM understands so well. Ted Thompson has picked a player in the fourth round that I'm higher on than Tavon, Maine's Jerron McMillian, a SS with tenaciousness, ability to play in cold weather, a very high football IQ, excellent hitter, and size comparable to Tavon's. I think Green Bay got much better value--and a better player playing strictly SS--than we got two rounds earlier with a more versatile though not better player in Wilson. I predict that McMillian will make a much bigger contribution this upcoming season than Wilson, though as a diehard Pats fan I hope I'm wrong. (I'm not confident in Steve Gregory to come in here and stabilize the safety position next to oft-injured Chung.)

Green Bay Packers Complete 2012 NFL Draft Analysis : Green Bay Packers

Also, when likely LG DeCastro and Co. come into town for the AFC Championship Game and he wrecks havoc, absolute havoc, on Love and Deaderick and Pryor, you'll wish we had gone for Worthy at Wilson's pick. It'll be like the Raven coming in a few years ago and opening huge holes for Ray Rice to gallop away. I think only Fanene has a chance to be able to hold up against him for a _limited_ period of time. DeCastro will likely prove the hype right: he's the best interior offensive lineman to come out in ten years since Steve Hutchinson. With the talent available at 48 at DT there was no reason to go away from that position.

I predict Worthy will have an outstanding rookie season. He's far stouter at the point of attack than many realize who think he can't play a 5 technique. And he's far more disruptive than anyone we've got on the interior D line when it comes to obvious pass situations, including Vince.

 

[DaBruinz]

Great stuff, Sunny.

This is exactly what the Green Bay GM understands so well. Ted Thompson has picked a player in the fourth round that I'm higher on than Tavon, Maine's Jerron McMillian, a SS with tenaciousness, ability to play in cold weather, a very high football IQ, excellent hitter, and size comparable to Tavon's. I think Green Bay got much better value--and a better player playing strictly SS--than we got two rounds earlier with a more versatile though not better player in Wilson. I predict that McMillian will make a much bigger contribution this upcoming season than Wilson, though as a diehard Pats fan I hope I'm wrong. (I'm not confident in Steve Gregory to come in here and stabilize the safety position next to oft-injured Chung.)

Green Bay Packers Complete 2012 NFL Draft Analysis : Green Bay Packers

Wow. Clearly Tavon Wilson did something to you that you aren't telling everyone else. He sleep with your wife? Run over your dog? You've been shown to have been talking out your rear end every time you talk about Wilson. You've had to backtrack about your claims of him numerous times. And, come to find out, that Wilson was much more highly touted than you thought (thanks to MWPF). So can you please stop with your whining about the Tavon Wilson pick? Especially since what Sunny mentioned applies to the Pats just as much as every other team.

Also, when likely LG DeCastro and Co. come into town for the AFC Championship Game and he wrecks havoc, absolute havoc, on Love and Deaderick and Pryor, you'll wish we had gone for Worthy at Wilson's pick. It'll be like the Raven coming in a few years ago and opening huge holes for Ray Rice to gallop away. I think only Fanene has a chance to be able to hold up against him for a _limited_ period of time. DeCastro will likely prove the hype right: he's the best interior offensive lineman to come out in ten years since Steve Hutchinson. With the talent available at 48 at DT there was no reason to go away from that position.

So, you are predicting the Pats and Steelers in the AFC Championship game. You sure are expecting a lot from the Steelers, who have a very tough schedule. While the Steelers have DeCastro and Pouncey, they have a lot of questions along the rest of their line. And let's not forget that Rashard Mendenhall is returning from a torn ACL. From the reports, there is a 90-99% chance that he starts the year on the PUP for the first 6-9 games. That leaves Jonathan Dwyer, who is also recovering from a foot injury, rookie Chris Rainey, who figures to be the 3rd down back with Mewelde Moore gone, and Isaac Redman, who had done horrible against the Pats with the same players on the defense.

I predict Worthy will have an outstanding rookie season. He's far stouter at the point of attack than many realize who think he can't play a 5 technique. And he's far more disruptive than anyone we've got on the interior D line when it comes to obvious pass situations, including Vince.

How can you say that Worthy is more disruptive than Wilfork, Pryor or Fanene when Worthy hasn't played a single down in the NFL yet? That is you talking out your arse again. I also find it funny that you give props to Worthy on something most people AGREE upon (That's he's good at the point of attack) but you fawn all over him about something that most scouts say that he's mediocre in and that's the Pass Rush.

Now, one thing you are totally over-looking is that the Pats prefer to have a guy who is 6'4 or taller and has long arms for the DE position. Particularly the RDE position in the 3-4. Worthy is only 6'2 1/8 and has average arms at 33 inches. The Pats like for their DE's to get their hands up into the Passing lanes. Another thing that may have caused the Patriots to shy away is the fact that Worthy's vertical and broad jump numbers were pretty poor. That can lend itself to being weak at the point of attack despite having good technique. Especially since the opposing linemen at the Pro level will be that much better where Worthy won't be able to just rely on his weight and athletic ability to handle the running game.

 

[State]

Pryor is built a lot like Worthy, though Pryor can't seem to make it through a season without spending most of it on the trainer's table. Pryor doesn't have the explosiveness off the snap, though. Worthy has an uncanny ability to anticipate the play and shoot off the guard's hip before he can face up to him.

He did that against Ben Jones in the Capital Bowl game against Georgia and showed real dominance against an NFL-quality player.

Time will tell, DaBruiz, as it always does with these drafts. Wilson has the skills and cerebral characteristics to be a good player. He's got the drive & tools, that's for sure. He watched the entire DB part of the Combine. He must have a fire in his belly not even being invited to that or anything.

His coaching at Illinois, however--a Zook program with a lot of talent (at 48 TW was the fourth Illinois player taken in this year's draft) and little to show for it (Can't break .500)--was spotty. And he had a very small tally of interceptions, which should be a red flag, doncha think?

But if Worthy (or Still) puts it together and gets his head on straight, he can be a _very_ good one.

It's also interesting to watch how the Steelers handle OT Mike Adams, who can't be denied has first-round talent.

I expect the Steelers offensive line to be rejuvenated like the Patriots were when Leon Gray and John Hannah walked in together.

 

[charlie2]

Pryor is built a lot like Worthy, though Pryor can't seem to make it through a season without spending most of it on the trainer's table. Pryor doesn't have the explosiveness off the snap, though. Worthy has an uncanny ability to anticipate the play and shoot off the guard's hip before he can face up to him.

He did that against Ben Jones in the Capital Bowl game against Georgia and showed real dominance against an NFL-quality player.

Time will tell, DaBruiz, as it always does with these drafts. Wilson has the skills and cerebral characteristics to be a good player. He's got the drive & tools, that's for sure. He watched the entire DB part of the Combine. He must have a fire in his belly not even being invited to that or anything.

His coaching at Illinois, however--a Zook program with a lot of talent (at 48 TW was the fourth Illinois player taken in this year's draft) and little to show for it (Can't break .500)--was spotty. And he had a very small tally of interceptions, which should be a red flag, doncha think?

But if Worthy (or Still) puts it together and gets his head on straight, he can be a _very_ good one.

It's also interesting to watch how the Steelers handle OT Mike Adams, who can't be denied has first-round talent.

I expect the Steelers offensive line to be rejuvenated like the Patriots were when Leon Gray and John Hannah walked in together.

Wow it sounds as if Worthy is the second coming of Suh. How on earth did he make through the mid-second round?

I don't see how anyone can complain about Wilson before he has even played a snap. In my opinion he fills a HUGE need on the team and will play the inside 3rd safety/strong corner position that Edelman was forced to play last year. From what I've seen (admittedly just on you-tube), Wilson is outstanding near the line of scrimmage in run support and blitzing. Give the kid a chance instead of relying on the likes of Mel Kiper.

 

[State]

I understand your points. Worthy has a lot of front office detractors because his play is uneven, he allegedly had poor interviews at the combine, and that kind of character issues kept him out of the first round.

I think a bigger issue than what many have said--although Mike Reiss brings it up today--is giving Big Vince more rest. We simply can't have him play the number of snaps he has the past year or two. Too much.

Worthy would have done that. And I think Worthy will prove the naysayers wrong and have a tremendous rookie season up in Green Bay.

Certainly, for those of us avid Big Ten watchers, including ESPN scribes who do it for a living, football players like Devon Still and Jerel Worthy were on a much high plane than Tavon Wilson. Sorry for saying it, but it's the truth.

I think Wilson fits in schematically here in New England. What you say about his hybrid role is going to be seen a lot in the coming season.

Although Worthy can be a much more disruptive football player on the field, Wilson may prove a better fit for the Patriots' defensive needs.

I still think the talent was too strong to overlook one of the three-head hydra of DTs in Reyes, Still, or esp. Worthy.

BTW, Worthy came out early because his father has serious health concerns and he wants to take care of him. I had wished he'd been able to stay another year at Michigan State.

He could have been a mid-first rounder in next year's draft. Easy.

 

[DaBruinz]

Certainly, for those of us avid Big Ten watchers, including ESPN scribes who do it for a living, football players like Devon Still and Jerel Worthy were on a much high plane than Tavon Wilson. Sorry for saying it, but it's the truth.

So what? So some reporters and some fans (neither of whom have any actual scouting acumen) think that Still and Worthy are better than Wilson. I'll put my faith in Belichick and the scouting staff over you and the ESPN scribes any day. I mean you are talking about the same scribes who said that Ernest Shazor was a lock top 15 pick. The same ones that said that Vollmer was a huge reach and that Chad Jackson was a steal.

Those scribes get more wrong about how players will play in the NFL than they do right. It's why they are reporters and not scouts.

 

[State]

I wish the local media media would do what the Journal Sentinel in Milwaukee has done for the top Green Bay picks.

What the scouts say about Jerel Worthy, Casey Hayward - JSOnline

We used to get this when Will McDonough was covering the NFL and the Patriots for the Globe.

I'm very curious to read what a handful of NFL front offices have to say about the Patriots' picks, esp. TW.

All we've gotten on this board is a second-hand story from an unnamed but admitted low-ranking member of one NFC front office. That's not good enough.

And people have made it seem as though teams that had TW in for a visit were all set to pull the trigger in the bottom of the second round.

Not so fast with that assumption, pilgrim.

 

[The Gr8est]

So now that we have a chance to see Wilson in camp has anyone's opinions changed?

If Wilson was rated as the top free safety in the 2012 draft by the talking heads et al, and he performed as he has been performing in camp, would anyone be concerned that the Pats had blown the pick?

I suspect the undercurrent of discussion here would be that BB had gotten a steal in the 2nd round where Wilson was picked.