Where does the Blount trade rank in the BB era?

[Brady6]

He shouldn't be in the convo..i was just talking about his nickname a lot called him. blount is a punisher like Dillon...but Dillon was better and quicker

That makes sense sorry if I misunderstood the premise.

 

[supafly]

Talib was an UFA this past offseason free to go anywhere.

I think there were some variables from last season which may have prevented him from signing those rumored multi-year deals with the Redskins and the other mystery team that was reported by Breer (aside from the rumored multi year deal that the Pats offered). As we know he ended up signing a 1 year 4.95 million dollar deal, with almost all of that guaranteed at 4.5 or so.

1. The strange downturn in the CB market. All of the sudden the better names in the league were going for 5 million AAV or so, which was very different than any other year. He may have decided to wait it out and see what happens to the market, which is the advice that I think a lot of agents gave, and also part of the reasoning why we saw a lot of one year deals.

2. He was coming over from TAM as a malcontent, who was in danger of getting cut in the new Schiano regime. Once he came here he proved himself, but there were still plenty of concerns such as missing a good chunk of time in his stint here down the stretch. We saw a lot of in/out, start him/rest him type patterns, and of course in the most important game of the season he was forced to stand on the sidelines. He continued his chronic hip injury status and had his 5th consecutive season where he did not finish out the year. There were still some question marks surrounding Talib in free agency in my opinion.

The aspects to consider in him staying or leaving this offseason are the state of the free agent market again (specifically at CB), and obviously how much money teams are offering him, if they're a winner or not, the coach, etc. I still think that something in the vein of the Bodden deal (4/22 with 10 million guaranteed) would be more than fair, and when you add it to this past season, he'd really be looking at 5/27 with about 15 million guaranteed. That's not too shabby at all for a guy who historically misses 20% of each of his six seasons, has a very serious chronic hip injury which flares up when it wants to, and has had attitude/work ethic/law issues too. I'm really not even convinced that Belichick would go 4/22 after this year's 1/5 deal, but we'll have to see. I just think that's his ceiling no matter where he goes.

 

[Brady6]

The last game Blount fumbled the ball was a month ago. I really don't care about stats. Its freakin cold and I've got a 250 lb RB with fresh legs pounding the ball in the fourth quarter and he's picking up 4 yards at a clip. End of story.

The last game Ridley fumbled was a month as well but people act like he is going to fumble at any moment even though he has a lower career fumble rate and Ridley less fumbles in his regular season career than Blount.

As far as how he is being used I have no issue with it and as I have said many times I think he was a great addition in that capacity but I am conscious of that and aware that many of his yards occur games that are determined when he is running and gaining yards.

 

[BritPat]

Let's not go putting Blount in Canton yet. To be fair though, he's been a very good relief-pitcher, if you will, and has shown he may be capable of more than that, certainly worthy of a 7th.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I like Blount and think he was a good pickup but to put him in the same sentence as Corey Dillon is ambitious in my opinion. Blount has done well as I said but many of his yards are gained in the fourth quarter of decided football games.

QUARTER = 1 - 34, 140, 4.1, 14, 1
QUARTER = 2 - 29, 115, 4.0, 14, 0
QUARTER = 3 - 18, 68, 3.8, 12, 0
QUARTER = 4 - 48, 260, 5.4, 47, 4

He has run for 323 yards on 81 carries for a 3.98 average, 1 touchdown and 2 lost fumbles in the first three quarters of the football game. He best games occurred against the Tampa, Atlanta, Pittsburg and Baltimore which coincidently were all games we led by 10+ points heading into the fourth quarter.

I am not diminishing what Blount has done, that clock killing RB at the end of a ball game is nice to have but I think that people need to take into consideration the causation vs. correlation of Blount’s stats when assessing what he has done and how much value he has added. For a depth player he has been fantastic but he has not done anything close to what Dillon did for this team.

First, I'd say that Blount is a much different runner lately compared to the beginning of the season. He's much more decisive and hits the hole harder. I don't know if it's a coaching thing or maybe he understood the playbook better and so he's not thinking as much, but he's definitely a different player than we saw in training camp.

I also think you need to look at the situational splits a bit further. Yes, he's gotten some garbage yards in the 4th, as does every running back. But he certainly hasn't been terrible during competitive situations.

LeGarrette Blount: Situational Stats at NFL.com

You've mentioned the 4th quarter thing a few times, so let's start there. Sure, he averages 5.4 YPC in the 4th quarter, but did you know he also averages 5.4 YPC in the 4th quarter when the game is within 7 points?

He only has 12 carries when we're ahead by 15+. He has more than 5 times as many carries with the game between 1-8 points. He actually has twice as many carries when we're behind by 1 score, averaging an impressive 4.9 YPC.

In fact, 471 of his 583 yards (81%) have come at times when the game was within 14 points (two scores). That number is meaningless without context, so as a comparison of yards generated in "garbage" situations (not in talent), LeSean McCoy leads the league in rushing and has gained 78% of his yards during 2-score situations. Jamaal Charles has only gained 62%. Adrian Peterson is at 86% this season, and during his 2,000 yard MVP-season, he was at 81%. Matt Forte is at 76%, Alfred Morris at 70%, Marshawn Lynch 61%, Frank Gore 63%, Eddie Lacy 91%, Ryan Matthews 81%, and DeMarco Murray 59%.

Those are your top 10 NFL rushers this year and only 2 of them have a higher percentage of yards gained in two-possession games than Blount. So let's stop treating him like the garbage man.

83 of Blount's 129 carries (64%) were done when the game was within 0-7 points, and he's averaging a healthy 4.2 YPC. Sure, it's lower than the 5.4 YPC when the game is decided by 15+, but that 4.2 YPC mark is the same as Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, DeAngelo Williams, and Stevan Ridley, a very respectable number.

This is all a long way of saying that Blount got some yards in some blowouts early on, but that's not all he does. And it's unfair to continue to criticize him for it.

 

[MassPats38]

I am not voting for Blount I can tell you that much.

• Ridley has 608 touches, 11 fumbles and 8 lost fumbles in his career.
• Blount has 593 touches, 11 fumbles and 8 lost fumbles in his career.

I would probably want the ball in the hands of Bolden who has never fumbled in his career or Vereen who has fumbled 1 time in his career. I you’re sitting there thinking that Blount is any more secure with the football than Ridley your wrong.

Stats can be good, but this is when your stats use goes over the top. First, the only people who 'know' the most 'secure' hands on the Pats are the coaches. They have spent far more time with all running backs than fans will ever see, so stop speaking definitively on a subject like that because in reality you know very little in the way of actual fact. You don't. And "more secure" with 111 career carries (or 119 carries for Vereen) is like saying you should start Mallett over Brady because his completion percentage is better if he were to complete the one pass he threw in an active game in his career - it's called sample size in statistics. A rookie batter does not make the all star game when he goes 1 for 1 in his season. It is 1.000 on the stats sheet, but it is not statistically significant by virtue of the sample size.

As for Blount and Ridley, how about in their careers with the Patriots, which is the only relevant metric? You can be stupid and careless elsewhere, but who wins the dummy award with the Pats? That would be Ridley - period. End of discussion. Ridley holds the season lead in fumbles lost this season in NFL backs, so stop trying to use "body of work" stats to explain that away. It is just silly. Even the untrained eye can see Blount is not running carelessly. He is consistently shown with two hands on the ball. The same has not been true of Ridley, who has spent a lot more time on the Pats and hopefully only now is learning to pull his head out of his arse in protecting the ball. And your boy is Ridley, not Blount, whom you have been claiming got the soft yardage while Ridley gets the hard yardage while arguing "run Ridley more" because of his "statistically acceptable" fumbling while you were crititiquing McDaniels's awful decisions as OC (which seemed a little less so when Ridley gave the other team 2 TDs and took 1 off the board for the Pats this season).

Early runs have the advantage of gameplan surprise, when the opposing team is not onto the calls or scheming. Later runs have the advantage of fatigue, provided a team has been running the ball all game and/or has kept the opposing defense on the field for an extended period of time. Neither is an absolute, so your characterization of early versus later is incomplete at best. Has Blount run behind the best run blocking linemen, the ones who started the game, or has Ridley? How many of those guys have managed to stay on the field the whole game this season? How good was the opposing team's run defense? How close were the games (did the defense fold, or was it still fighting)? Those trivial game time considerations are huge, and you address none of them with your generalized stats.

And as an FYI, I believe Dillon became "clock killin'" after the playoff game against the Colts in 2004. If I recall correctly, it is in the sidelines sound bites on the 3 Games to Glory DVD.

 

[Ivan]

"Stats are for losers," Belichick said. "The final score is for winners."




That's easy for Belichick to say, he's broke.

 

[Brady6]

First, I'd say that Blount is a much different runner lately compared to the beginning of the season. He's much more decisive and hits the hole harder. I don't know if it's a coaching thing or maybe he understood the playbook better and so he's not thinking as much, but he's definitely a different player than we saw in training camp.

I agree with what you’ve said he has improved significantly as a runner over the course of the season. He appears to be running lower to the ground and not dancing as much at the line of scrimmage. Overall your post was terrific and did shift my opinion of Blount some, I was never against him as a player I just was not has high as many, your post opened my eyes to his improvements over the course of the season and if he can maintain them he probably will be a successful runner worthy of resigning this offseason.

 

[moosekill]

You truly believe that we would have lost the game if Blount was inactive? You do recall the score? You did watch the game?

Lol, I watched the game did you? Pats up 20-7 with what 4 minutes left in the game. One of their 2 touchdowns on a run from Blount. Ravens had just driven the field twice, first time they missed the field goal, next time they got a TD. Pats get the ball back and burn the clock down to under 2 minutes and score a td going up 27-7 and effectively ending the game. Perhaps you recall that the Ravens put in a back up QB after that last TD, and the two final TD's were in garbage time, when Baltimore should have taken a knee and ended it. The running of Blount and Ridley ended the game by killing the clock and Blount's second TD. Really the final score should have been 27-7

How many times last year did the Pats have a huge lead and almost end up almost losing the game by not being able to run the ball effectively at the end of the game. Their O-line isn't as good as it was last year, and Ridley is the still one of the backs, so kind of points toward Blount doesn't it?


Rushing ATT YDS TD LG
LeGarrette Blount 16 76 2 14
Stevan Ridley 15 54 0 8
Brandon Bolden 1 6 0 6
Shane Vereen 2 6 0 4

Also remember, 1 of Blount's rushes was on the 1 for a td, and a second was when they needed 1 for a first down, which takes his ypc to 5.28

 

[Brady6]

"Stats are for losers," Belichick said. "The final score is for winners."




That's easy for Belichick to say, he's broke.

From a team perspective what Belichick said is true but when you’re assessing an individual player at an offensive skill position they’re relevant, the most important thing is the outcome of the game of course but if you want to single out Blount and not take into consideration that the OL is the #1 ranked run blocking line in the NFL and the times when Blount is running with the most success in the game in terms of score and situation you’re using a skewed vantage point to exaggerate a players performance.

As I have said several times in the thread Blount has been a solid player for us and performed well in his role at the end of games but to rank him among trades during Belichick’s era is extreme in my opinion. If you want to look at an offseason trade that will likely go down as one of Belichick best it would be trading #25 in the 2013 draft for the picks that equated to Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Josh Boyce and the seventh round that was used to acquire Blount. That was a great trade that will benefit this team short-term and long-term.

 

[Brady6]

Lol, I watched the game did you? Pats up 20-7 with what 4 minutes left in the game. One of their 2 touchdowns on a run from Blount. Ravens had just driven the field twice, first time they missed the field goal, next time they got a TD. Pats get the ball back and burn the clock down to under 2 minutes and score a td going up 27-7 and effectively ending the game. Perhaps you recall that the Ravens put in a back up QB after that last TD, and the two final TD's were in garbage time, when Baltimore should have taken a knee and ended it. The running of Blount and Ridley ended the game by killing the clock and Blount's second TD. Really the final score should have been 27-7

How many times last year did the Pats have a huge lead and almost end up almost losing the game by not being able to run the ball effectively at the end of the game. Their O-line isn't as good as it was last year, and Ridley is the still one of the backs, so kind of points toward Blount doesn't it?


Rushing ATT YDS TD LG
LeGarrette Blount 16 76 2 14
Stevan Ridley 15 54 0 8
Brandon Bolden 1 6 0 6
Shane Vereen 2 6 0 4

Also remember, 1 of Blount's rushes was on the 1 for a td, and a second was when they needed 1 for a first down, which takes his ypc to 5.28

Blount had 10 carries for 62 yards after we held a 17-0 lead, prior to that he carried 6 times for 14 yards. Considering that the defense held the team to 7 points I would say that we could have won that game without Blount, obviously it was better to have him and he did score a touchdown on the way to us building the 17-0 lead but I don’t think we’d of lost if he was not in uniform.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If you want to look at an offseason trade that will likely go down as one of Belichick best it would be trading #25 in the 2013 draft for the picks that equated to Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Josh Boyce and the seventh round that was used to acquire Blount. That was a great trade that will benefit this team short-term and long-term.

One of the most grossly over-looked & under-appreciated philosophies BB has isn't necessarily his drafting ability but evaluating, projecting and maximizing value. Could be a player, draft pick, roster or salary cap slot. The draft day trades of one pick to net 3 picks....Not overspending on current free-agents or aging veterans....Knowing when a player despite talent just isn't a fit in the system....I know BB gets a lot of guff for trading down or not signing a certain FA, but there is a philosophical approach backed by logic and empirical data that overvaluing a player hamstrings a team in many areas on and off the football field (roster/cap flexibility, gameday strategy, etc).

 

[Brady6]

As for Blount and Ridley, how about in their careers with the Patriots, which is the only relevant metric? You can be stupid and careless elsewhere, but who wins the dummy award with the Pats? That would be Ridley - period. End of discussion.

I don’t understand that assertion; in terms of carrying the football as a runner Ridley and Blount are not that far apart this season:

• Ridley – 166 carries, 3 fumbles, 3 fumbles lost, fumbles 1.8% of his carries.
• Blount – 129 carries, 2 fumbles, 2 fumbles lost, fumbles 1.55% of his carries.

Look at Ridley and Blount in the first 3 quarters of the football game this season:

• Ridley – 130 carries, 572 rushing yards, 4.4 average, 4 touchdowns, 3 fumbles and he fumbles 2.3% of the time he carries the football.
• Blount – 81 carries, 323 rushing yards, 3.98 average, 1 touchdown, 2 fumbles and he fumbles 2.4% of the time he carries the football.

In the games we did not have a big lead or lost (Bills, Jets, Bengals, Saints, Jets, Panthers, Broncos, Texans, Brown and Dolphins) Blount rushed for 244 yards on 65 carries for a 3.75 yard average and 1 touchdown. In the games we held a big lead and won handily Blount rushed for 339 yards on 64 carries for a 5.29 yard average and 4 touchdowns. That is an indication of the times making the player rather than the player making the times from where I am sitting.

These things aside I like having Blount here because he can close out the game and limit the risk of injuries to our top 2 backs Ridley and Vereen.

 

[RobertWeathers]

These things aside I like having Blount here because he can close out the game and limit the risk of injuries to our top 2 backs Ridley and Vereen.

I like Blount too. I think we would agree that if Ridley wasn't fumble prone he would be getting the clock-killin' carries over Blount.

 

[moosekill]

Ridley has 4 fumbles lost this year, I believe. Which is 2.4% of the time. If you want to use stats for your arguments you should double check them.

 

[mgteich]

Blount has been very valuable this year.

However, I do think that we would have beaten BALT without his presence.

Lol, I watched the game did you? Pats up 20-7 with what 4 minutes left in the game. One of their 2 touchdowns on a run from Blount. Ravens had just driven the field twice, first time they missed the field goal, next time they got a TD. Pats get the ball back and burn the clock down to under 2 minutes and score a td going up 27-7 and effectively ending the game. Perhaps you recall that the Ravens put in a back up QB after that last TD, and the two final TD's were in garbage time, when Baltimore should have taken a knee and ended it. The running of Blount and Ridley ended the game by killing the clock and Blount's second TD. Really the final score should have been 27-7

How many times last year did the Pats have a huge lead and almost end up almost losing the game by not being able to run the ball effectively at the end of the game. Their O-line isn't as good as it was last year, and Ridley is the still one of the backs, so kind of points toward Blount doesn't it?


Rushing ATT YDS TD LG
LeGarrette Blount 16 76 2 14
Stevan Ridley 15 54 0 8
Brandon Bolden 1 6 0 6
Shane Vereen 2 6 0 4

Also remember, 1 of Blount's rushes was on the 1 for a td, and a second was when they needed 1 for a first down, which takes his ypc to 5.28

 

[Brady6]

Ridley has 4 fumbles lost this year, I believe. Which is 2.4% of the time. If you want to use stats for your arguments you should double check them.

Ridley does have 4 fumbles however 1 of them occurred as a receiver against Pittsburg, the stats I were in terms of carrying the football in the running game and did not take into account any touches as a receiver or returner. If you look at the quote below from my post I clearly stated that in my post.

I don’t understand that assertion; in terms of carrying the football as a runner Ridley and Blount are not that far apart this season:

I did not include stats from the receiving game intentionally so I do not need to double check anything.

 

[brdmaverick]

Didn't we trade for Corey Dillon? He had a superb season that year and it helped us significantly in getting a third SB. And a fourth rounder for arguably the most dominant performance ever by a WR, trump most other trades even if their tenures in NWE weren't particularly long.

Blount is a pleasant surprise. I'm not sure how many people actually did predict Blount's significant role in the offense. Not many I'd presume. I sure didn't. In fact there was chatter about who of Blount and Bolden would actually make the 53 man roster. Wound up they both did.

not to be a naysayer, but to further your point, even though Moss and Dillon didn't have long tenures, I suspect they will still be longer than Blount's

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I agree with what you’ve said he has improved significantly as a runner over the course of the season. He appears to be running lower to the ground and not dancing as much at the line of scrimmage. Overall your post was terrific and did shift my opinion of Blount some, I was never against him as a player I just was not has high as many, your post opened my eyes to his improvements over the course of the season and if he can maintain them he probably will be a successful runner worthy of resigning this offseason.

I wish there was a way to break up the splits even further, say by month and then by category. I do remember looking at those same numbers a few months ago and thinking a similar thing to you, but he's really come on the past few weeks, especially since Ridley got benched. He's definitely running lower and better overall.

 

[Brady6]

I wish there was a way to break up the splits even further, say by month and then by category. I do remember looking at those same numbers a few months ago and thinking a similar thing to you, but he's really come on the past few weeks, especially since Ridley got benched. He's definitely running lower and better overall.

I looked at them around the bye and I am in agreement Blount has absolutely improved in terms of being productive in all 4 quarters of the game. I’ve read in several articles that he is running with a better pad level and from what I have seen he has also been more decisive in his decision making and hitting the whole with a lot less dancing. If he can continue to make these strides I would absolutely like to see him back but unless he returns for at least one more season or we win the super bowl with him as a key cog I don’t find the trade for him to be anything noteworthy we’ve had plenty of RBs who have contributed throughout the years Green-Ellis, Woodhead, Pass, Morris and Jordan to name a few who have contributed as much as Blount has to this point and we didn’t have to give up anything in compensation to obtain them. I hope he returns in 2014 and I really hope he helps lead us to a SB title and if he does I will gladly eat my crow on this.