1) I don't see why folks think that a top 10 Offense is likely. I do indeed expect lots of improvement.
2) An average Offense (14-18) would make us a playoff contender. Perhaps we are ready to do that, perhaps it is too much of a jump for one year.
3) The line MAY BE close to an average OL. I do think that this is unlikely. The good news is that Josh can make do with a below average OL, just not an awful one.
4) We are asking a lot. There will be an inexperienced sophomore QB, a new set of linemen and wide receivers getting used to a new system and a new set of coaches getting used to the personnel and to each other.
1) 2021 Patriots under Josh were around #10 in team offense based on advanced metrics.
Mac Jones, Damien Harris, Rhamondre, Meyers, Bourne, Henry, Agholor, Bolden, Jonnu Smith were the main skill guys. Josh McDaniels is good, and probably even better now. And he has upgrades or equal at every position from 2021. A MAJOR QB upgrade.
2)Hard to say how good the defense will be, 1st time DC, lots of new pieces, Barmore health for the whole season etc. A top 5 offense is the closest thing to guaranteeing a playoff birth. A top 10 defense makes a big difference as well. If we are not top 10 in either we likely don't make playoffs.
3) Yeah, still a question mark, Can Campbell solidify LT, but questions at every position that need to be answered, still better than last year, just how much.
4) Agree, Biggest question is how fast they come together. Vrabel was 15-9 with Tennessee in the first month of the season. A .576 win % vs .545 overall. He won 3 of the first 4 his first year as coach. I think he'll have them ready to play good football day 1.
I went back and watched the Arizona, Buffalo and Chargers all 22, just the passing plays. My recollection was Drake played a little worse at the end of the year. Not the case at all. Man did the line stink. Also, Gibson was terrible at blocking the blitz. One play the guy shoved him with his left hand, put Gibson on his butt and sacked Drake. A couple plays later Rham misses a middle blitz, guy just bumps him slightly and goes by, Rham is then too slow to turn around and get Drakes dump off. Hendersen will be a difference maker in so many ways.
Bad play calling, the bad line, the bad RB blitz pickup, bad shotgun snaps, all things that killed the offense that should be miles better.
I also think Drake will be great in Josh's offense, he seemed to make the right checks, could read the defense well, putting him in charge of protection and giving him more control at the line should improve the offense as well.
Watching the tape made me excited for Drake in this offense with the additions. Can't wait.