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Wes Welker: Contract talks with Pats have gotten worse

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Two isn't reasonable under almost any circumstances unless they want to just offer him $21M guaranteed for two years which would be assinine when they could get another year or two for that kind of guaranteed money and those years wouldn't be guaranteed beyond they can keep him or even trade him not to mention even force him to take a pay cut to remain or dump him altogether if he's showing any signs of diminishing returns.

Mankins tore his ACL in year 1 of his 6 year $51M deal with $30M guaranteed. He will likey struggle and not perform at peak level in his first season back. 2013 he will be 30 with 4 years remaining on his deal. You know what, he will either return to top tier playing form then or they will start squeezing him to cut his pay and perhaps walk away from him altogether if he doesn't like that by the end of year 4. That's the way deals work in the NFL. If Welker wants more than $16M guaranteed that means he wants more than a two year deal, period. You don't fully guarantee any deal up front for lots of reasons largely related to cap consequence. You guarantee portions of the entire deal so that if the player wears out playing at a high level for you the risk/burden of that is to some extent shared.

I understand what you're saying, Mo.

As I said, I think they got it right (or at least close) when offering him a 2 yr deal; although 3 would certainly be in the picture too. Anything more is not going to happen in my opinion.

Right, wrong, or indifferent, I just don't see the team giving him more than 3 yrs max.

If Welker plays at a level anywhere close to what he has done, the team will be in the same exact scenario next year too. As you said, at that point it will become 21 million guaranteed over 2 yrs, and any future pact will be one more year past the current point now--which will likely leave everyone at a standstill.

I'm not saying that a 2 yr pact is ideal for either party, but in this particular scenario it may be the only option. They've already offered him a 2 yr deal last fall, and according to Welker himself they offered the same amount of yrs only less money this time.

It's basically just my humble opinion that they should come up a bit on that deal that's on the table, and both sides can feel as though they walked away somewhat victorious. Is it ideal for the team? No. But if they already explored that length, then there shouldn't be too much (more) to worry about, then what they already considered.

One can make a case for a 3 yr deal, and that's probably just as well, even better for both sides; and we will have to see if that's the route they try and take.
 
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How many yards do you expect from him in the 2014 season when he's 33?

This is a good poll question. If he's still catching passes from Tom Brady, I'd expect 100 receptions for 875 yards and 9 TDs.
 
I don't see any reaosn why he can't do what Hines Ward did at 33 which is put up 90+ receptions and over 1,000 yards like he normally does. He's shown zero signs of regressing.
 
PFS74---I was under the initial impression that what you are saying was true, and that stayed true all the way up until....I forced myself to watch it again.

I think when you re-watch the replay you will see that it really should've been a catch. Just take a quick second to rewatch it on youtube.

If you still feel as though it would have been a "highlight reel for decades to come catch" (barring obvious sentimental reasons for winning the SB) then I guess we will just have to respectfully disagree on this one.

Thanks to you and Deus for ruining my morning.

I re-watched the play for the first time since the game. It would have been a tough catch, it would have been a highlight reel catch, but it was a catch a franchise wide receiver should have made. I wouldn't have expected a rookie to make that catch, I wouldn't have expected a WR down the depth chart to make that catch, but when a lost cause like David Tyree and a good but not great Mario Manningham make plays that range from "impossible" to "tough" to help win an SB, I expect Wes Welker to make that catch.

OK. Now, your punishment for putting me through that and destroying my fantasy that there was no way he could "catch the damn ball" to quote Gisele, you have to watch this clip from NFL films where a miked up referee says after the play: "That was the game."

Wes Welker Super Bowl Drop, Mic'd Up (Video) | SportsGrid

It's too early in the day to drink and I have work to do or I'd pour myself a stiff one.
 
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Welker should have made that catch, no question about it.

Thanks to you and supafly for ruining my morning.

I re-watched the play for the first time since the game. It would have been a tough catch, it would have been a highlight reel catch, but it was a catch a franchise wide receiver should have made. I wouldn't have expected a rookie to make that catch, I wouldn't have expected a WR down the depth chart to make that catch, but when a lost cause like David Tyree and a good but not great Mario Manningham make plays that range from "impossible" to "tough" to help win an SB, I expect Wes Welker to make that catch.

OK. Now, your punishment for putting me through that and destroying my fantasy that there was no way he could "catch the damn ball" to quote Gisele, you have to watch this clip from NFL films where a miked up referee says after the play: "That was the game."

Wes Welker Super Bowl Drop, Mic'd Up (Video) | SportsGrid

It's too early in the day to drink and I have work to do or I'd pour myself a stiff one.
 
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Two isn't reasonable under almost any circumstances unless they want to just offer him $21M guaranteed for two years which would be assinine when they could get another year or two for that kind of guaranteed money and those years wouldn't be guaranteed beyond they can keep him or even trade him not to mention even force him to take a pay cut to remain or dump him altogether if he's showing any signs of diminishing returns.

Mankins tore his ACL in year 1 of his 6 year $51M deal with $30M guaranteed. He will likey struggle and not perform at peak level in his first season back. 2013 he will be 30 with 4 years remaining on his deal. You know what, he will either return to top tier playing form then or they will start squeezing him to cut his pay and perhaps walk away from him altogether if he doesn't like that by the end of year 4. That's the way deals work in the NFL. If Welker wants more than $16M guaranteed that means he wants more than a two year deal, period. You don't fully guarantee any deal up front for lots of reasons largely related to cap consequence. You guarantee portions of the entire deal so that if the player wears out playing at a high level for you the risk/burden of that is to some extent shared.
I don't have a problem with what you have said in this post since, everything written was true. What I do have a problem with is the tone. Maybe I'm being too sensitive and I've misinterpreted your meaning, sorry if I did.

What I object to is the sense that the team is doing something nefarious by "squeezing" the players to redo contracts if their play regresses. I hate that crap I hear when the mediots deride the fact that NFL aren't 100% guaranteed. Every day I thank GOD that NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed.

How dare the teams have the temerity to demand players produce to the level of their payment. And if they don't, try and get their money back, so it can be given to other more worthy (hopefully) player

Today the Pats are currently committed to pay Wes Welker close to 50% of the $20MM it took him make in the past 5 years in one single year. Yet the mediots want us to consider that an "insult", or "a screw job" They already have offered him a deal that would give him a 33% raise for each of the next 2 years guaranteed!. THOSE BASTARDS!!!!!!

It drives me nuts when these guys keen and whine about the absurdly high incomes they get because they are merely NFL players. I am old enough to remember when players most players earned 5 figure salaries and were thrilled to get it, because it was much more than most professional people made working 50 weeks a year. A time when players had to get jobs in the off season. The prize at the end of my attempt at the NFL would have DOUBLED my $7200 teacher salary.

Welker is not the bad guy here. He is free to try and negotiate the best deal he can from the Pats, by any means possible. What I can't abide is the notion that these already overpaid athletes are somehow being screwed by a system that, in the last 20 years has made them all very wealthy men. Between the on field salary, and off field opportunities that few people get,Every NFL player has the chance to secure financial security in a very short time. The problem is few take that opportunity, but that's no one's fault but their own.

Sorry I got off on a little bit of a rant. I feel better now
 
I don't see any reaosn why he can't do what Hines Ward did at 33 which is put up 90+ receptions and over 1,000 yards like he normally does. He's shown zero signs of regressing.

Seems to be the point Bedard is attempting to make in his Sunday column.

His contract scenario is a little tortured - partly because his reliance on extreme incentives would be LTBE even though not paid unless they were met - thus making it not a cap friendly deal on it's face and lowering the guaranteed value of a 4 year deal to $13M, surely not acceptable to Welker's camp. Incentive wise, Wes is a victim of his own success... Bedard is trying to use the carrot and the stick approach on a driven guy, less guaranteed or up front but the potential to earn probably more than he'd settle for. Unfortunately his deal doesn't really work for either side. Too much risk and too little guaranteed reward for Welker to commit to 4 years when they can easily cut the salary to minimum on the backend and too potentially cap unfriendly for the team if he proves his critics totally wrong once again. Even though if he did he'd likely be a lock for Canton.

I was looking forward to Greg's contract take, but he mailed it in. Should have talked to an agent before taking a stab at something he thought was clean and simple.

Here's a game plan for signing Welker to long-term deal - Sports - The Boston Globe - Greg A. Bedard
 
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I don't have a problem with what you have said in this post since, everything written was true. What I do have a problem with is the tone. Maybe I'm being too sensitive and I've misinterpreted your meaning, sorry if I did.

What I object to is the sense that the team is doing something nefarious by "squeezing" the players to redo contracts if their play regresses. I hate that crap I hear when the mediots deride the fact that NFL aren't 100% guaranteed. Every day I thank GOD that NFL contracts aren't fully guaranteed.

How dare the teams have the temerity to demand players produce to the level of their payment. And if they don't, try and get their money back, so it can be given to other more worthy (hopefully) player

It''s no more nefarious than when players who wildly outperform their contracts squeeze teams. How dare they demand to be fairly compensated for what the are doing while they're doing it? I also thank god that football contracts aren't fully guaranteed. But they are and should be partially guaranteed, and that is based on the length of the deal and the value of what can only ever be projected production. That is based on age to some extent but a lot more goes into the equation including prior production and consistency of production and prior durability and work ethic and how the player performed when he got paid as opposed to before. I'm all for redistributing wealth to the more deserving, ken. Just ask Ocho's fans...or Moss' or Seymour's or Asante's.

Today the Pats are currently committed to pay Wes Welker close to 50% of the $20MM it took him make in the past 5 years in one single year. Yet the mediots want us to consider that an "insult", or "a screw job" They already have offered him a deal that would give him a 33% raise for each of the next 2 years guaranteed!. THOSE BASTARDS!!!!!!

It drives me nuts when these guys keen and whine about the absurdly high incomes they get because they are merely NFL players. I am old enough to remember when players most players earned 5 figure salaries and were thrilled to get it, because it was much more than most professional people made working 50 weeks a year. A time when players had to get jobs in the off season. The prize at the end of my attempt at the NFL would have DOUBLED my $7200 teacher salary.

It drives me nuts - a real pet peeve of mine - when people persistently mistate things as if fact. Welker made $18M in the past 5 years, and he earned every nickle of it and more by consistently outperforming the contract many begrudged him back in 2007. Brady's contracts went from $300K per to $6M to $10M to $18M...that bastid. Damn him for earning it. What these guys make and what teachers make is irrelevant, although many of them make 6-7 times today what you did in the olden days...and still whine even though they work shorter hours than the rest of us and have months of vacation time we can only dream about. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach or drive a truck or install HVAC or program computers or whatever. They can't all act, or perform neorosurgery or head a Fortune 500. And if they could they probably would and they'd want to be paid just as much money as the next guy who is doing what they do. Newsflash, ken, that's human nature. As for some is irrational jealousy.

Welker is not the bad guy here. He is free to try and negotiate the best deal he can from the Pats, by any means possible. What I can't abide is the notion that these already overpaid athletes are somehow being screwed by a system that, in the last 20 years has made them all very wealthy men. Between the on field salary, and off field opportunities that few people get,Every NFL player has the chance to secure financial security in a very short time. The problem is few take that opportunity, but that's no one's fault but their own.

And they also pay the price at the end of a 10 or 12 year career for most if they are lucky. And if you still in this enlightened age can't grasp the magnitude of that, then there really isn't much to be gained in indulging in your idle musings let alone any point in paying any attention to any of your periodic rantings.

Sorry I got off on a little bit of a rant. I feel better now

Sorry I got on a little bit of a rant. I feel better now, too. But from experience I know it won't last. For either of us.
 
It''s no more nefarious than when players who wildly outperform their contracts squeeze teams. How dare they demand to be fairly compensated for what the are doing while they're doing it? I also thank god that football contracts aren't fully guaranteed. But they are and should be partially guaranteed, and that is based on the length of the deal and the value of what can only ever be projected production. That is based on age to some extent but a lot more goes into the equation including prior production and consistency of production and prior durability and work ethic and how the player performed when he got paid as opposed to before. I'm all for redistributing wealth to the more deserving, ken. Just ask Ocho's fans...or Moss' or Seymour's or Asante's.
I think we agree much more than we disagree on this. I've said before, I have no problem with Welker trying to get the best deal he can. I had no problem with him talking contract with the media as a strategy. I didn't think it was a wise decision, but I would never criticize him for it.

I'm also 100% for PARTIALLY guaranteed contracts. Where we MIGHT disagree is on the different philosophy of how to assess the player's value in the 2nd contract. You might want to reward past performance, but I would make a judgement based on projected future results.

And as for your last comment all I can say is that mistakes have been made. Ocho is one, but I would argue that Seymour and Samuel weren't

It drives me nuts - a real pet peeve of mine - when people persistently mistate things as if fact. Welker made $18M in the past 5 years, and he earned every nickle of it and more by consistently outperforming the contract many begrudged him back in 2007. Brady's contracts went from $300K per to $6M to $10M to $18M...that bastid. Damn him for earning it.
Hey, Mo, I'm on record, several times, stating that Welker outperformed his initial contract. So what! Let me ask you, what do you think the percentages are on how often a player performs up to the level of his 2nd contract (under performs, equals, or over performs). I'm just guessing, but I'd bet that, under performs would be greater than equals and over performed combined. So I don't feel that bad when the team "wins" one every now and then.

What these guys make and what teachers make is irrelevant, although many of them make 6-7 times today what you did in the olden days...and still whine even though they work shorter hours than the rest of us and have months of vacation time we can only dream about. Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach or drive a truck or install HVAC or program computers or whatever. They can't all act, or perform neorosurgery or head a Fortune 500. And if they could they probably would and they'd want to be paid just as much money as the next guy who is doing what they do. Newsflash, ken, that's human nature. As for some is irrational jealousy.
NOW you hit one of my pet peeves. I spent over a decade teaching. Since then I've done an number of things in the business world from financial services to security consultant and made a ton of money. But BY FAR, the single toughest job I've ever held was as a teacher.(but also the most rewarding) Just picture having to do 5, 48minute shows a day to a very tough audience. Then do it 5 days a week for 180 days. And that's just the classroom part. You can almost double the classroom time if you add up the preparation and paperwork responsibilities.It is exhausting, especially if you are coaching as well. .

In other jobs I'd have to sometimes work 50-52 weeks a year, but none were harder on you than teaching. And it pisses me off when people who have never tried it smugly dismiss what it takes under the guise of "months of vacation time we can only dream about".

My point about the money was to show that "even in my day" athletes were paid well, more than most professionals. However the gap wasn't nearly as pronounced as it is today, even when you consider inflation. Back then the thought of doubling my salary was almost unimaginable Today in a similar situation I'd be looking at making almost TEN times what a starting teacher makes, if I were to make the minimum rookie salary. And the ultimate point is to show that the players have it pretty good these days.

And they also pay the price at the end of a 10 or 12 year career for most if they are lucky. And if you still in this enlightened age can't grasp the magnitude of that, then there really isn't much to be gained in indulging in your idle musings let alone any point in paying any attention to any of your periodic rantings.
Well, Mo, there is often a price to pay at a lot of jobs after a long career. Miners, cops, firemen, iron workers, construction workers, farm workers, etc, etc, etc, all face physical issues after long careers . Football at the NFL level CAN be hazardous to your health. I AM SHOCKED by that revelation. 300lb men traveling at high speeds running into each other may be harmful to your long term health. OMG, why didn't anyone tell me.

I am all for player safety, but don't try and tell me that grown men didn't understand that they were in a profession that could cause them physical problems down the road. Especially players of the last 20 years.

BTW 3 other totally OT comments.

1. I wish the league and the media would do a better job of explaining that playing HS and college football is a LOT less dangerous than in the NFL where the the speed of the game and the size of its players are stressing the human body to its limits. At the slower speeds and smaller body sizes, the HS game, especially is MUCH safer. I worry that if this message doesn't get out and the differences explained clearly enough, this game we all love will dry up and disappear in a couple of generations. Worse yet, and awesome learning experience will be lost for millions of young kids.

2. Nothing is 100% safe. I just saw a program (20-20 maybe) that highlighted the growing problem of life changing concussion injuries to young girls playing soccer.

3. What is it going to take for Ian to add a
feature that would make it easier to have a detailed discussion of issues. Its a standard feature on most sights I visit, including many that don't get nearly the amount of traffic this one does.
 
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Thanks to you and Deus for ruining my morning.

I re-watched the play for the first time since the game. It would have been a tough catch, it would have been a highlight reel catch, but it was a catch a franchise wide receiver should have made. I wouldn't have expected a rookie to make that catch, I wouldn't have expected a WR down the depth chart to make that catch, but when a lost cause like David Tyree and a good but not great Mario Manningham make plays that range from "impossible" to "tough" to help win an SB, I expect Wes Welker to make that catch.

OK. Now, your punishment for putting me through that and destroying my fantasy that there was no way he could "catch the damn ball" to quote Gisele, you have to watch this clip from NFL films where a miked up referee says after the play: "That was the game."

Wes Welker Super Bowl Drop, Mic'd Up (Video) | SportsGrid

It's too early in the day to drink and I have work to do or I'd pour myself a stiff one.

Deepest apologies PFS74. I certainly didn't mean to put you through such heartache again, even though someone did the same to me when I stuck up for Welker a couple months back

I think it's just one of those plays that gets left on the field, and unfortunately for us, we've had some of those in the big game lately.

FWIW--I did think that the whole "Butterfinger" media thing was waaaayyy over the top, not to mention extremely tasteless. It certainly was not what one would consider the 'average drop,' even though I do feel that he should've had it.

The good news is that we've gotten stronger, deeper, and more talented in many ways, and will be a force to be reckoned with come the end of the season again. As painful as it still is for most of us, you can't fully keep appreciating the victories without experiencing some of the other side too.

The next one may be the sweetest one in my opinion, at least along the same lines as the first one.
 
What difficulty there was in that catch owes some part to Welker's route and inability to transition to the back shoulder. He had ample time to adjust the route to be run less inside - and to transition to get on his back shoulder to make that in stride. That ball was in the air plenty of time. He slowed down, was slow to turn, and didn't jump high enough - and yet even then, once the ball hit his hands, he still should've had it.
This is one piece that people often miss - the non-adjustment to the ball in the air. The other is that this is the NFL. If the ball hits your hands, hold onto it. The difference in the game was that Manningham caught the ball he had to, and Welker didn't.

This isn't saying Manningham is a better receiver than Welker, or that Welker has cement hands, or that Welker is a bad receiver. It says Welker dropped a ball that that he chould have caught. It wasn't the only one in 2011, it was just at the worst time.
 
Seems to be the point Bedard is attempting to make in his Sunday column.

His contract scenario is a little tortured - partly because his reliance on extreme incentives would be LTBE even though not paid unless they were met - thus making it not a cap friendly deal on it's face and lowering the guaranteed value of a 4 year deal to $13M, surely not acceptable to Welker's camp.

I didn't get that impression, Mo. Maybe I mis-read.

Here is the quote (courtesy of Greg Bedard and the Boston Globe):


"Four years, to spread out the cap exposure, with a total value of $40 million, of which $18 million is guaranteed the first two seasons.
Base salaries would be $5 million each season with an $8 million signing bonus.
If Welker is so confident in his abilities and wants more that second season to match what a second tag would have paid him, then put in another $2 million in incentives for, say, reaching 90 catches.
That puts him at $20 million for two years, which is basically the tag the next two years. And the Patriots still have him for two more."

I was under the impression that the guaranteed money over the first 2 yrs would be 18 million, with potential incentives to possibly bring it up to 20 million in guarantees over the first 2 seasons.

I'm unsure where you're getting the "13 million guaranteed" from? I'm seeing it as anywhere between 18-20 guaranteed in the first 2 yrs alone.
 
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Deepest apologies PFS74. I certainly didn't mean to put you through such heartache again, even though someone did the same to me when I stuck up for Welker a couple months back

I think it's just one of those plays that gets left on the field, and unfortunately for us, we've had some of those in the big game lately.

FWIW--I did think that the whole "Butterfinger" media thing was waaaayyy over the top, not to mention extremely tasteless. It certainly was not what one would consider the 'average drop,' even though I do feel that he should've had it.

The good news is that we've gotten stronger, deeper, and more talented in many ways, and will be a force to be reckoned with come the end of the season again. As painful as it still is for most of us, you can't fully keep appreciating the victories without experiencing some of the other side too.

The next one may be the sweetest one in my opinion, at least along the same lines as the first one.

Yeah, after watching it a few times in the light of day, it's a big time, big game catch that has to be made by a big time, big game player.

I see them in the big game again this season or next season.
 
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I didn't get that impression, Mo. Maybe I mis-read.

Here is the quote (courtesy of Greg Bedard and the Boston Globe):


"Four years, to spread out the cap exposure, with a total value of $40 million, of which $18 million is guaranteed the first two seasons.
Base salaries would be $5 million each season with an $8 million signing bonus.
If Welker is so confident in his abilities and wants more that second season to match what a second tag would have paid him, then put in another $2 million in incentives for, say, reaching 90 catches.
That puts him at $20 million for two years, which is basically the tag the next two years. And the Patriots still have him for two more."

I was under the impression that the guaranteed money over the first 2 yrs would be 18 million, with potential incentives to possibly bring it up to 20 million in guarantees over the first 2 seasons.

I'm unsure where you're getting the "13 million guaranteed" from? I'm seeing it as anywhere between 18-20 guaranteed in the first 2 yrs alone.

He also had the deal as flat $7M hits (ignoring the LTBE status of the incentives for cap purposes) against the cap and didn't say that any of the flat salaries were guaranteed and incentives never are or they wouldn't be incentives although in his scenario they'd hit the cap as LTBE. $13M is his $8M signing bonus + the first $5M year 1 salary, which is all Welker would be "guaranteed" in his scenario. Miguel used to consider dead cap as at least implicitly guaranteeing the early years salaries in a deal, but the signing bonus is small in this scenario ($6M dead cap after year 1 that can be divided in two against $5M or in cap relief per in 3 years of future salaries ) it doesn't implicitly guarantee anything.
 
This is a good poll question. If he's still catching passes from Tom Brady, I'd expect 100 receptions for 875 yards and 9 TDs.

If he's only producing at 8.8 yards per catch, do you even want him on the field enough for him to get 100 catches? Back in 2010 (which I think is a pretty good estimate of what he'll be like when he starts declining), he had a 9.9 YPC, and he only played 70% of the snaps, which helps explain why he only had 86 receptions that year. Now it's not a fair comparison because they'll age and decline too, but Lloyd had a YPC of 13.8 last season and 18.8 the year before and Gaffney had 13.9 and 13.5 the last two years. From an efficiency standpoint, they'd be way better off finding someone like that than putting your hypothetical 2014 Welker on the field.
 
He also had the deal as flat $7M hits (ignoring the LTBE status of the incentives for cap purposes) against the cap and didn't say that any of the flat salaries were guaranteed and incentives never are or they wouldn't be incentives although in his scenario they'd hit the cap as LTBE. $13M is his $8M signing bonus + the first $5M year 1 salary, which is all Welker would be "guaranteed" in his scenario. Miguel used to consider dead cap as at least implicitly guaranteeing the early years salaries in a deal, but the signing bonus is small in this scenario ($6M dead cap after year 1 that can be divided in two against $5M or in cap relief per in 3 years of future salaries ) it doesn't implicitly guarantee anything.

I see where you came up with the 13 million number, and will certainly defer to you and your more experienced knowledge with contracts and breakdowns.

I was under the impression that the LTBE incentives were more geared toward years #3 and #4, with the guaranteed money for the first 2 yrs being between 18-20 million, thus giving Welker the incentive to earn almost as much as he would have under being tagged for this yr and next.

I do not however, have the experience or knowledge of these particular contract and cap scenarios that you have, so what 'appears' to be the truth to the average fan may not be the actual case to guys like you who understand it much better than myself.

Anyway, thanks for the explanation.

EDIT: after looking quickly at it again, is there a way that they could still guarantee BOTH of the first 2 yrs, as they initally did when offering him the 2/16 fully guaranteed deal? That would make both the 5 million (2012) and 5 million (2013) base salaries (without the LTBE incentives) + the 8 million dollar signing bonus totalling 18 million in guarantees for the first 2 yrs.
 
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If he's only producing at 8.8 yards per catch, do you even want him on the field enough for him to get 100 catches? Back in 2010 (which I think is a pretty good estimate of what he'll be like when he starts declining), he had a 9.9 YPC, and he only played 70% of the snaps, which helps explain why he only had 86 receptions that year. Now it's not a fair comparison because they'll age and decline too, but Lloyd had a YPC of 13.8 last season and 18.8 the year before and Gaffney had 13.9 and 13.5 the last two years. From an efficiency standpoint, they'd be way better off finding someone like that than putting your hypothetical 2014 Welker on the field.

Yes, indeed, we would want anybody who can give the Patriots 100 catches a year. The YPR is down a little and my projection was based on him getting older and expecting less in the YAC department. He'd still be the most effective slot receiver in the game with 6-plus receptions per game.

You compare two outside the hash marks guys with Welker which is where the whole contract issue is complicated. If there is a better slot receiver, go for it, but I think Welker is the best ever at what he does. I feel Welker is like an extension of the running game. He's most dangerous in down-and-distance situations where a pass or run is an option.
 
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Pats offering my man short money?
 
Interesting series of tweets from Breer:

2m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

Yup. Wes: 554; Marshall: 474. RT @jeffphowe @AlbertBreer Not only led NFL in rec since 07, did so by 80. Players ranked 2-8 separated by 79.

18m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

Point is, teams don't like to pay for past play. But totally understandable where players say, "You've been stealing me the last few years."

20m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

... Interesting too he's made just $6,763,520 since 2009. He led NFL in catches that year, tore his ACL, came back, led NFL again in 2011.

22m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

... If you're counting, that's $3.6M per year for Welker, who's 1st in catches, 4th in yards, 18th in TDs over that 5-year stretch. ...

23m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

So I looked up what Welker has made -- $18,126,960 over 5 years from NE. By year (in order, 2007-11): $6.1M, $5.3M, $2.0M, $2.3M, $2.5M.

24m Albert Breer?@AlbertBreer

Interesting question pondering today on teams' willingness to pay for past performance at high-risk spots. Applies to Welker, Rice, Forte.
 
Yeah, after watching it a few times in the light of day, it's a big time, big game catch that has to be made by a big time, big game player.

I see them in the big game again this season or next season.

I dont blame Welker.

Wins or Losses rarely come down to 1 play. There were plenty of missed opportunities in that game.
 
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Mark Morse
2 weeks ago
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