Wes re Gronk and hernandez...

[woolster22]

Going out on a limb and calling it now. Either wes signs short term now (2 yr/3rd option) or hern gets the extension this year/next year while WW walks to a better contract after playing out the tag. Personally, I'm unfortunately favoring the latter. Double dip at wr in next years draft? Call me crazy...

 

[naF staP]

I want Wes to remain a Patriot for this coming season and two more. I say BS to all those who think Wes should be gone after this coming season.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Going out on a limb and calling it now. Either wes signs short term now (2 yr/3rd option) or hern gets the extension this year/next year while WW walks to a better contract after playing out the tag. Personally, I'm unfortunately favoring the latter. Double dip at wr in next years draft? Call me crazy...

The problem with the WRs is the Patriots haven't drafted a good one in TEN years. Branch is who I'm referring to, and for all the glory, he's never topped 1000 yards. Yes, it's true, the Pats have never drafted a 1000 yard OR pro bowl receiver in the Brady era. I don't recall any studs drafted by Belichick in Cleveland either. They obviously have a problem evaluating young talent and how they fit with their philosophy. They've had better luck in free agency. Considering how critical it is to have financial resources for WR, the team is just being extremely careful with the Welker situation. I predict the former, where Welker caves in with a 2 yr, 20M deal.

In terms of Hernandez, I don't really think the Gronk extension is relevant. If anything, they now have more leverage on AH because they could tag him as a TE, similar to what the Packers did with Finley.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The problem with the WRs is the Patriots haven't drafted a good one in TEN years. Branch is who I'm referring to, and for all the glory, he's never topped 1000 yards. Yes, it's true, the Pats have never drafted a 1000 yard OR pro bowl receiver in the Brady era. I don't recall any studs drafted by Belichick in Cleveland either. They obviously have a problem evaluating young talent and how they fit with their philosophy. They've had better luck in free agency. Considering how critical it is to have financial resources for WR, the team is just being extremely careful with the Welker situation. I predict the former, where Welker caves in with a 2 yr, 20M deal.

In terms of Hernandez, I don't really think the Gronk extension is relevant. If anything, they now have more leverage on AH because they could tag him as a TE, similar to what the Packers did with Finley.

There are a lot of ways to acquire players, fortunately. Personally, I'll take Randy Moss for a 4th rounder, Welker for a 2nd and 7th, and Brandon Lloyd for the bargain salary that we're paying him. As long as there are good WRs on the roster, I don't particularly care how they get there.

 

[BTTA]

There are a lot of ways to acquire players, fortunately. Personally, I'll take Randy Moss for a 4th rounder, Welker for a 2nd and 7th, and Brandon Lloyd for the bargain salary that we're paying him. As long as there are good WRs on the roster, I don't particularly care how they get there.

The observation that the team has an apparent weakness in college WR evaluation does create a limitation with regard to how they get them. And that reduces the number of opportunities and likelihood of success. In the end, the Pats end up with fewer good players at that position, and having to use resources to make up for it that could have been used on other positions. It does matter that they haven't had success with the draft at that position.

 

[borg]

Two thoughts
1) No question Hernandez is a mismatch nightmare for many defenses. On top of that, his effectiveness in the RB role late last season was jaw dropping (for me at least). I have to believe there are quite a few O coordinators that would line up to bid for his services. He's a special and unique talent.....and he's young.

The bigger question is....will BB just keep Hernandez on his rookie contract and risk discord? BB's no fool and he goes well beyond most to maintain a harmonious locker room. This locker room could get tested if Hernandez asks for his and gets stiff armed. I don't think BB will risk that.

2) I predict Welker's production will be diminished considerably this coming season and here's why...
...A) NFL defenses were not ready for the NFL passing game to start the 2011 season.....and Welker's numbers reflect that. First 4 games...40 catches, 600+ yds, 5 TDs. With a full offseason and preseason, I don't expect Brady to toss many 4-500 yd games and Wes' numbers should reflect this.
...B) LLoyd. If Brady gains confidence in this guy, then LLoyd should eat up some of Welker's catches
...C) McDaniels. Yes, Welker lit it up during the Moss/Welker era under Josh's stewardship. But here's the thing, McDaniels didn't have a Gronk or Hernandez back then. Lots of new toys. Add in this new dimension of blocking FB (Larsen) that has suddenly appeared and the Pats O may attempt to become more balanced. More running=less passing
...D) Time of possession. Best way to help the defense is to eat clock on offense. BB has to be conscious of the side effects of his pass first offense. We will see on this one, but again more running leads to less passing.

BB has never (in my eyes) reduced a player's role/participation in order to subdue a player's future negotiating value. Yet he won't cave to Welker's demands. Sure, there's only so much money and offense is getting a disproportionately high share of funds....but it is possible Bill sees a reduced output ahead for Welker and won't pay him premium dollars because of it. And if so, Belichick would be more than happy to begin the negotiating again next offseason when Welker won't have such frothy stats to support such a high asking price. A year older, another year entrenched in the community, another year as Brady's sidekick, another run at perfection ....BB may just be tenderizing ole Wes

 

[BlueThunder]

Considering how critical it is to have financial resources for WR, the team is just being extremely careful with the Welker situation. I predict the former, where Welker caves in with a 2 yr, 20M deal.

Can't see the Pats giving Wes more than what he is tagged for. Original offer was 2 yrs for $16 Mil I believe. I agree with giving him a 2-3 year contract but maybe in the $8 Mil/yr range. I'm hoping that both Wes and Aaron get extended to solidify the Offense for the next few years. BB seems to be a step ahead of everyone in building this team to compete for years. :rocker:

 

[borg]

Just thinking out loud here....
Think back several weeks, before Welker signed his 1 year contract.....Wes was making the media rounds giving the "oh gosh, I'm not sure if I'll skip the offseason" interviews. Then soon after, he comes flying into Foxborough to put his X on the contract. Maybe, it's just a coincidence, or maybe he wanted to be with his team at OTAs, or maybe the latest reduced contract offer scared him off the couch......But just maybe Wes caught wind that the Gronk was getting his and he feared the Pats might remove the tag and the $9.5 guaranteed that comes with it. The Gronk contract is light huge dollars in the first few years, but Wes wouldn't know that.
Sure would love to be a fly on the wall as BB/Kraft and company strategize on retaining the surplus of talent the Pats have.

 

[PittPatriot]

The bigger question is....will BB just keep Hernandez on his rookie contract and risk discord? BB's no fool and he goes well beyond most to maintain a harmonious locker room. This locker room could get tested if Hernandez asks for his and gets stiff armed. I don't think BB will risk that.

It just occurred to that the one who does the "open the safe and make it rain" dance after TD's is the one who might be looking to improve his rookie contract and the one who got the huge payday probably can't even balance a check book (Gronk). Irony...

 

[ctpatsfan77]

...D) Time of possession. Best way to help the defense is to eat clock on offense. BB has to be conscious of the side effects of his pass first offense. We will see on this one, but again more running leads to less passing.

Safe passes with high completion %ages (i.e., most throws to Welker) don't stop the clock. . . .

And the problem with TOP last year was that the D couldn't get off the field far more than that the O couldn't stay on it (despite the low TOP, the 2011 Patriots were still 10th all-time in scoring).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

and he feared the Pats might remove the tag and the $9.5 guaranteed that comes with it.

It would have immediately made him a free agent able to negotiate with any team without restrictions, so I'm not sure how that would have been bad for Welker.

 

[mayoclinic]

Going out on a limb and calling it now. Either wes signs short term now (2 yr/3rd option) or hern gets the extension this year/next year while WW walks to a better contract after playing out the tag. Personally, I'm unfortunately favoring the latter. Double dip at wr in next years draft? Call me crazy...

ESPN's James Walker agrees with you:

Pats chose 'Gronk' over Welker, Hernandez - AFC East Blog - ESPN

I can see several scenarios playing out:

1. The Pats keep WW on the franchise tag and he walks, with Hernandez getting his extension in 2013.

2. The Pats work out a 2 year deal for Welker. Hernandez plays out his rookie deal and gets the franchise tag or an extension in 2014.

3. The Pats sign Welker to a long term deal, don't have enough money for Hernandez, and Hernandez walks after 2013. This is the worst case scenario IMHO, and I don't think the Pats will go down this road.

4. The Pats manage to juggle the cap, sign Welker to a 3 year deal and keep Herhandez through 2014 as well, either with a cap-friendly extension or with the franchise tag in 2014, hopefully with a long term deal to follow. This is the best case scenario, but it will be tricky.

Brandon Lloyd is wrapped up for 3 years at very reasonable cost. Jabar Gaffney is wrapped up for 2 years, and could probably be extended another year. So there are some options at WR beyond Welker. But the Pats have some juggling to do.

I think that Robert Kraft's comments a few weeks ago about it taking both sides to strike a deal and about needing to look at the whole picture is sending a message. Gronk signed a very cap-friendly deal for the team, and got a nice bonus and some security out of it. If Welker and Hernandez want to play ball, the Pats might be able to make option 4 work. But if either one doesn't, then probably the Pats will have to choose among the first 3 options. I'm guessing they go with AHern in that situation.

 

[Kjmass1]

What would be awesome would be for Brady to makeup the difference in Welker's contract (1-2 mill per year) to allow him to stick around with the Pats. Wes doesn't know about it until it becomes public after Brady retires. That would be a team move for your best friend/teammate, and I'm pretty sure Brady can spare the change.

 

[mayoclinic]

What would be awesome would be for Brady to makeup the difference in Welker's contract (1-2 mill per year) to allow him to stick around with the Pats. Wes doesn't know about it until it becomes public after Brady retires. That would be a team move for your best friend/teammate, and I'm pretty sure Brady can spare the change.

Brady already restructured his contract once this March, FWIW:

Brady restructures contract, gives Patriots $7M more in cap space - NFL - Sporting News

I doubt anyone wants to keep Gronk, Hernandez and Welker together longer more than TFB.

 

[Ring 6]

The problem with the WRs is the Patriots haven't drafted a good one in TEN years. Branch is who I'm referring to, and for all the glory, he's never topped 1000 yards. Yes, it's true, the Pats have never drafted a 1000 yard OR pro bowl receiver in the Brady era. I don't recall any studs drafted by Belichick in Cleveland either. They obviously have a problem evaluating young talent and how they fit with their philosophy. They've had better luck in free agency. Considering how critical it is to have financial resources for WR, the team is just being extremely careful with the Welker situation. I predict the former, where Welker caves in with a 2 yr, 20M deal.

In terms of Hernandez, I don't really think the Gronk extension is relevant. If anything, they now have more leverage on AH because they could tag him as a TE, similar to what the Packers did with Finley.

Its kind of hard to say the issue is evaluating WRs, when they aren't actually drafting them, never in round 1 and rarely in round 2 or 3.
I don't think its evaluation, I think its that the team has a different set of requirements in a WR, and because of that, they place a lower value on the position in the draft than other teams do.

 

[mayoclinic]

Its kind of hard to say the issue is evaluating WRs, when they aren't actually drafting them, never in round 1 and rarely in round 2 or 3.

5 WRs in rounds 2 (Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson) and 3 (Brandon Tate, Taylor Price). It's nitpicking, but "rare" may be a tad harsh.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Going out on a limb and calling it now. Either wes signs short term now (2 yr/3rd option) or hern gets the extension this year/next year while WW walks to a better contract after playing out the tag. Personally, I'm unfortunately favoring the latter. Double dip at wr in next years draft? Call me crazy...

Yo, crazy :bye2:

Do we win things for calling things?? LOL

Some folks still don't get the value inherent in getting this system...Or what a crap shoot it is any WR will. And we're plum out of former veterans with success in it to fall back on in trade or FA...and Tom isn't getting any younger (although the newest schoolboy haircut makes him look younger still, as did the flowing locks look...maybe that's what drives the pursuit of various looks. )


Gronk's deal getting done on the terms it got done on makes it easier and therefore more likely Welker gets done. We'll know in just over a month. And even after that it's not out of the realm of possibility they get a deal done with Welker prior to or even during FA next season. Although it would be unfortunate to have lost a second season of cap mitigation in the process. He really wants to finish his career here. I think it would take a stupid money guaranteed money deal to force him to walk away from what he knows and loves (and his BFF TFB). Sadly this FO knows that too hence the situation we needlessly find everyone involved in.

Hernandez performance and his camps mood will be evaluated throughout the season but what they do depends on how he performs going forward and what Dunn is thinking (same agent as Welker FWIW). The team has options galore at this juncture including tagging him twice and effectively controlling him at reasonable cost for 4 more years. I could see him ending up with the 6 year version of Gronk's deal and a second bite at the apple with the tradeoff including similar guaranteed money vs. a lower new money or total deal or 6 year AAV. Unless of course Dunn is pissed and he convinces Aaron to hang in there because if they tag him he will argue for it to be as a WR...

And while the deadline for an extension looms for Welker (July 16th), the possibility remains that he plays out the season on the tag and they do a deal based on his market in 2013. He's not the kind of guy to cut off his nose to spite his face. He wants to remain here with TFB. It would take a lot more money and it would have to be guaranteed for him to simple say screw you NE. I said in another thread that in hindsight they were offering him 3 years $19M with $16M guaranteed (2 years of new money at $8M per but spread over 3 years including last year when he made <$3M in salary). So they were really offering him a deal that averaged a little over $6M per... That is shy he didn't take it. He was really only guaranteed less than $13M more than he was already going to make (which tracks with his recent comments that they werern't even offering $16M anymore...).. He's now made up $9.5M of that. All he is risking by standing firm is $3.5M more, and unless his career ends this season someone will pay him more than that for 2013, guaranteed...

Again, Gronks deal and Hernandez situation as a result of that deal all only makes it easier to extend Wes. It's all about cost certainty for Kraft and BB. After that it just comes down to a projected value debate between the player and FO.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

There are a lot of ways to acquire players, fortunately. Personally, I'll take Randy Moss for a 4th rounder, Welker for a 2nd and 7th, and Brandon Lloyd for the bargain salary that we're paying him. As long as there are good WRs on the roster, I don't particularly care how they get there.

Problem is for each of your 2 success stories there is a story of failure and then some. We just said goodbye to one and we couldn't even recoup a late round draft pick this time to mitigate dead cap... Randy was a bargain in 2007. Thereafter, not so much. He was being paid top 3 WR money for the 3 years he extended past 2007. There aren't any WR remaining on the market who have experienced success in this system. We are fortunate that Bill was able to reel in the remainder of them in this season. But as fate would have it they are all now on the wrong side of 30... Nobody rational cares how players get on the roster as long as they are good. Problem here is good isn't alway an option let alone a given. In the draft or FA.

 

[BradyFTW!]

The observation that the team has an apparent weakness in college WR evaluation does create a limitation with regard to how they get them. And that reduces the number of opportunities and likelihood of success. In the end, the Pats end up with fewer good players at that position, and having to use resources to make up for it that could have been used on other positions. It does matter that they haven't had success with the draft at that position.

You're working with *way* too small of a sample size to conclude that the Pats have a weakness in college WR evaluation.

It's kinda like how everyone complained that we couldn't draft tight ends right up until we got Gronk and Hernandez, or how we couldn't draft LBs until we got Mayo, or cornerbacks post-Asante until we got McCourty.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Problem is for each of your 2 success stories there is a story of failure and then some. We just said goodbye to one and we couldn't even recoup a late round draft pick this time to mitigate dead cap... Randy was a bargain in 2007. Thereafter, not so much. He was being paid top 3 WR money for the 3 years he extended past 2007. There aren't any WR remaining on the market who have experienced success in this system. We are fortunate that Bill was able to reel in the remainder of them in this season. But as fate would have it they are all now on the wrong side of 30... Nobody rational cares how players get on the roster as long as they are good. Problem here is good isn't alway an option let alone a given. In the draft or FA.

Yes it is true that the Patriots don't experience success with 100% of their acquisitions, at WR and also at every other position.