We're on to Washington

[mayoclinic]

April 2027.

Less than 365 days away.

Time to climb the mountain again.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

It will be much more BPA next year. Makes it harder to predict. RG for sure, after that, who knows.

Strong draft. Lots of guys. Big job. Lots of QBs will push guys down. It should be a fun draft.

 

[mayoclinic]

My early goals for 2027:

1. Complete the build out of the most athletic, versatile, and deepest OL in the NFL. Protect the Drake.

2. Add versatile and violent players on defense who complement and complete the nucleus already in place.

3. Add complementary offensive skill players that fit with the existing core and overall vision.

Players who I expect to be moving on from in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, either because of age, contract, or fit:

- OT Morgan Moses
- IOL Mike Onwenu
- TE Hunter Henry
- RB Rhamondre Stephenson
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Pop Douglas
- EDGE Harold Landry
- LB Robert Spillane
- S Kevin Byard
- CB Carlton Davis

IDL Christian Barmore and WR Kayshon Boutte are also long term question marks right now.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Players who I expect to be moving on from in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, either because of age, contract, or fit:

- OT Morgan Moses
- IOL Mike Onwenu
- TE Hunter Henry
- RB Rhamondre Stephenson
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Pop Douglas
- EDGE Harold Landry
- LB Robert Spillane
- S Kevin Byard
- CB Carlton Davis

IDL Christian Barmore and WR Kayshon Boutte are also long term question marks right now.

Hopefully Hollins, Spillane, and Byard have 1 more year left in 2027. Maybe Landry's knee is OK? TEs tend to hang around too.

I doubt Boutte resigns. Barmore leaves and we are drafting RG, IDL, and Secondary. Add a few FAs. Team would be set for awhile.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm very happy with the nucleus being built in several areas.

OL: Campbell, Lomu, Crownover at OL. Moses has a year left, and to mentor the youngsters. AVT, Wilson and Brown at IOL. I see Onwenu moving on after 2026.

DL: Milton Williams the key. Dre'mont Jones can play inside some. Farmer and Durden good building blocks. Big question is whether Christian Barmore is part of the long-term term plan.

EDGE: Dre'Mont Jones, Jacas, Ponder and Swinson a nice group. Harold Landry will be gone. Need one more versatile piece. Yhonzhae Pierre would be a great fit, IMO.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

My early goals for 2027:

1. Complete the build out of the most athletic, versatile, and deepest OL in the NFL. Protect the Drake.

2. Add versatile and violent players on defense who complement and complete the nucleus already in place.

3. Add complementary offensive skill players that fit with the existing core and overall vision.

Players who I expect to be moving on from in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, either because of age, contract, or fit:

- OT Morgan Moses
- IOL Mike Onwenu
- TE Hunter Henry
- RB Rhamondre Stephenson
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Pop Douglas
- EDGE Harold Landry
- LB Robert Spillane
- S Kevin Byard
- CB Carlton Davis

IDL Christian Barmore and WR Kayshon Boutte are also long term question marks right now.

Sounds about right. I’m hoping this will be the 2002 to last year’s 2001 (as opposed to what happened with Washington last year). Building stronger long term talent and likely taking a small step back record-wide but being well-positioned to get the final pieces together for a multi-year run thereafter.

 

[manxman2601]

The big question mark right now. What are we giving up for AJ Brown?

Just doing some early research today focusing on LB, S and CB.

The CB group looks to be very promising, both at the top and for depth.
The safety group also look good with 3-4 potential first round talents.
There's a couple of linebackers with obvious first round talent. not sure about the depth after that.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

The big question mark right now. What are we giving up for AJ Brown?

Just doing some early research today focusing on LB, S and CB.

The CB group looks to be very promising, both at the top and for depth.
The safety group also look good with 3-4 potential first round talents.
There's a couple of linebackers with obvious first round talent. not sure about the depth after that.

If i have it right, Pats currently have their assigned picks in rounds 1-4, two 5ths (from Bears for Bradbury, four 6ths (from Saints for Polk, from Texans for Mapu, and the Vikings trade yesterday), but no 7th rounders (traded with Mapu).

I could be on board with a 2nd plus Boutte for Brown. I really hope we don’t give up more than that; we need the assets to complete the buildout.

Something like -
1st: Linebacker as long term Spillane replacement
2nd: Brown
3rd: guard to replace Onwenu
4th: safety to replace Byard

With the 5th and 6th rounders used to trade around the board and general flyers.

Doesn’t get a CB but hoping Davis will continue to play well to justify him sticking around for 2027.

 

[manxman2601]

If i have it right, Pats currently have their assigned picks in rounds 1-4, two 5ths (from Bears for Bradbury, four 6ths (from Saints for Polk, from Texans for Mapu, and the Vikings trade yesterday), but no 7th rounders (traded with Mapu).

I could be on board with a 2nd plus Boutte for Brown. I really hope we don’t give up more than that; we need the assets to complete the buildout.

Something like -
1st: Linebacker as long term Spillane replacement
2nd: Brown
3rd: guard to replace Onwenu
4th: safety to replace Byard

With the 5th and 6th rounders used to trade around the board and general flyers.

Doesn’t get a CB but hoping Davis will continue to play well to justify him sticking around for 2027.

I like your list although I don't feel RG is necessarily something that needs to be drafted high. You can find those on day three...although it depends on what's available.

I would like to see a defensive orientated draft. Of the day 1 and 2 picks of the last two drafts, all but one were offensive players. It's time to give the defense some love.

 

[manxman2601]

It's far too early of course, but I think it's probably safe to say the following can be eliminated from serious consideration (non QBs)

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
2. Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
3. Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas*
4. Dylan Stewart, EDGE, S Carolina*
5. Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
6. Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas

* There is one caveat with Simmons and Stewart and that's their weight. Both are listed in the 240-245 range which is undersized for an EDGE player.

I'm going to eliminate OTs from my early scouting. If we draft another first round tackle, I think I'll go support another team.

 

[manxman2601]

I also approve the Yhonzae Pierre notion. I wonder if we did try to trade up for Trey Moore? Well Pierre is that LB/EDGE hybrid on steroids.

 

[mayoclinic]

It's far too early of course, but I think it's probably safe to say the following can be eliminated from serious consideration (non QBs)

1. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
2. Leonard Moore, CB, Notre Dame
3. Colin Simmons, EDGE, Texas*
4. Dylan Stewart, EDGE, S Carolina*
5. Jordan Seaton, OT, LSU
6. Trevor Goosby, OT, Texas

* There is one caveat with Simmons and Stewart and that's their weight. Both are listed in the 240-245 range which is undersized for an EDGE player.

I'm going to eliminate OTs from my early scouting. If we draft another first round tackle, I think I'll go support another team.

I agree about eliminating OTs from our focus, as far as OT goes. That includes guys like Trevor Goosby and Jordan Seaton, and probably Stanford OT Niki Prongos. But there are a number of prospects playing OT at the college level who probably project inside at the next level. My "big 3" are Austin Siereveld, Carter Smith, and Cayden Green.

I'm personally going to keep an eye on guys like this, hoping someone slips.

I'm tentatively assuming our 2nd is likely to be part of an AJ Brown trade. I really don't want to use our 1st on RG.

One OT I do plan to continue scouting next year is SMU's PJ Williams.

https://x.com/DuBoseDefense?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1980269086715125851%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Manx, you were very high on Williams last fall. Do you see him as OT only, or could he project inside to RG? A right sided combo of Williams and Caleb Lomu would be incredibly athletic.

Just a thought.

 

[manxman2601]

I agree about eliminating OTs from our focus, as far as OT goes. That includes guys like Trevor Goosby and Jordan Seaton, and probably Stanford OT Niki Prongos. But there are a number of prospects playing OT at the college level who probably project inside at the next level. My "big 3" are Austin Siereveld, Carter Smith, and Cayden Green.

I'm personally going to keep an eye on guys like this, hoping someone slips.

I'm tentatively assuming our 2nd is likely to be part of an AJ Brown trade. I really don't want to use our 1st on RG.

One OT I do plan to continue scouting next year is SMU's PJ Williams.

https://x.com/DuBoseDefense?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1980269086715125851%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Manx, you were very high on Williams last fall. Do you see him as OT only, or could he project inside to RG? A right sided combo of Williams and Caleb Lomu would be incredibly athletic.

Just a thought.

Yeah I've thought about Willams at guard. Definitely a possibility.

 

[mayoclinic]

The most athletic IOL at there is Kade Pieper. Only 290#, but strong as an ox - won the hale bale toss, beating out Gennings Dunker.

Per Bruce Feldman, Pieper has posted a 37" VJ, 4.13 SS, and 1.52 10-split. Those are not human numbers for a 290# IOL. Many CBs would not match those.

4.47 is the elite cutoff for an OL SS. A 1.7 10-split and 32" VJ are considered excellent. Anyone hitting those 3 numbers is a top candidate for the Pats.

1.52. 4.13. 37".

 

[Ring 6]

Players who I expect to be moving on from in 2027, or 2028 at the latest, either because of age, contract, or fit:

- OT Morgan Moses
- IOL Mike Onwenu
- TE Hunter Henry
- RB Rhamondre Stephenson
- WR Mack Hollins
- WR Pop Douglas
- EDGE Harold Landry
- LB Robert Spillane
- S Kevin Byard
- CB Carlton Davis

Moses, Henry, Landry were theoretically replaced this week.
Hollins and Douglas may not even be on this years roster. If we acquire brown to go with Boutte, Doubs, Williams there won’t be room for both or maybe neither.

That leaves Stevenson, Spillane, Byard and Davis. All but Byard are under contract for 2027 and should still be effective.

 

[mayoclinic]

Moses, Henry, Landry were theoretically replaced this week.
Hollins and Douglas may not even be on this years roster. If we acquire brown to go with Boutte, Doubs, Williams there won’t be room for both or maybe neither.

That leaves Stevenson, Spillane, Byard and Davis. All but Byard are under contract for 2027 and should still be effective.

I didn't address replacement status, just whether they were likely to be around in 2027.

- Morgan Moses will be 36, has a 2027 cap hit of $10.4M with $9M in cap savings if cut or traded. We just drafted 2 OTs.

- Harold Landry is under contract through 2027, will be 31 during the 2027 season, has an $18.5M cap hit with $14.5M savings. We just drafted his replacement.

- Carlton Davis under contract through 2027, and will be 30 during the 2027 season. He has a $22M cap hit for 2027, with $16.5M in savings. We just drafted a #4 CB for depth. He played well in 2025, but has previously been injury prone.

- Robert Spillane is under contract through 2027, and will turn 32 during the 2027 season. He will have a $13M cap hit with $10M savings.

- Hunter Henry is under contract through 2026, and will turn 32 in December. We just drafted his replacement.

- Rhamondre Stevenson is under gontract through 2028, will be 29 in 2027 with a lot of mileage. He has cap hits if $9.6 and $11.6M the next 2 years, $10M in 2027 cap savings.

- Kevin Byard will be 34 for the 2027 season, and is under contract through 2026. He could possibly be extended another year, but is not a long term piece.

I think it overwhelmingly likely that Moses, Landry and Henry are gone after 2026. Spillane and Davis may or may not stick for 2027, but a replacement is needed by 2028 at the very latest. Stevenson was productive but is high priced, and RB shelf life is short. He is replaceable if the opportunity arises. I don't see him lasting past 2027 at the longest.

We will clearly need to add a MLB, CB2, S and RB to be ready by 2028 at the latest.

Also of interest:

- Mike Onwenu is under contract through 2026. He has a whopping $25M cap hit this year, and would save $17.5M in cap space. It is not clear how he fits with the long term direction of the OL. If not extended, we will need a replacement by 2027.

- Christian Barmore is under contract through 2028 and turns 27 this summer. He has cap hits of $17.1M, $23.6M, and $24.6M the next 3 seasons. He has had off-field and discipline issues.

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't address replacement status, just whether they were likely to be around in 2027.

- Morgan Moses will be 36, has a 2027 cap hit of $10.4M with $9M in cap savings if cut or traded. We just drafted 2 OTs.

- Harold Landry is under contract through 2027, will be 31 during the 2027 season, has an $18.5M cap hit with $14.5M savings. We just drafted his replacement.

- Carlton Davis under contract through 2027, and will be 30 during the 2027 season. He has a $22M cap hit for 2027, with $16.5M in savings. We just drafted a #4 CB for depth. He played well in 2025, but has previously been injury prone.

- Robert Spillane is under contract through 2027, and will turn 32 during the 2027 season. He will have a $13M cap hit with $10M savings.

- Hunter Henry is under contract through 2026, and will turn 32 in December. We just drafted his replacement.

- Rhamondre Stevenson is under gontract through 2028, will be 29 in 2027 with a lot of mileage. He has cap hits if $9.6 and $11.6M the next 2 years, $10M in 2027 cap savings.

- Kevin Byard will be 34 for the 2027 season, and is under contract through 2026. He could possibly be extended another year, but is not a long term piece.

I think it overwhelmingly likely that Moses, Landry and Henry are gone after 2026. Spillane and Davis may or may not stick for 2027, but a replacement is needed by 2028 at the very latest. Stevenson was productive but is high priced, and RB shelf life is short. He is replaceable if the opportunity arises. I don't see him lasting past 2027 at the longest.

We will clearly need to add a MLB, CB2, S and RB to be ready by 2028 at the latest.

Also of interest:

- Mike Onwenu is under contract through 2026. He has a whopping $25M cap hit this year, and would save $17.5M in cap space. It is not clear how he fits with the long term direction of the OL. If not extended, we will need a replacement by 2027.

- Christian Barmore is under contract through 2028 and turns 27 this summer. He has cap hits of $17.1M, $23.6M, and $24.6M the next 3 seasons. He has had off-field and discipline issues.

Agree.
I did inadvertently skip over onwenu. He could definitely be extended he has many year left in his career.
I have big expectations for Barmore. He has a full season under his belt with good health. 2026 should be a monster year for him. I’m not aware of discipline problems.

 

[mayoclinic]

Barmore was suspended for the 1st quarter of a game last year.

Patriots HC Mike Vrabel confirms Christian Barmore discipline

Christian Barmore didn't play in the first quarter of the Patriots' win over the Browns, but Mike Vrabel won't share why.

sports.yahoo.com

Maybe nothing, not sure. But there were some questioning his long term fit with Vrabel.

 

[long distance]

If i have it right, Pats currently have their assigned picks in rounds 1-4, two 5ths (from Bears for Bradbury, four 6ths (from Saints for Polk, from Texans for Mapu, and the Vikings trade yesterday), but no 7th rounders (traded with Mapu).

I could be on board with a 2nd plus Boutte for Brown. I really hope we don’t give up more than that; we need the assets to complete the buildout.

Something like -
1st: Linebacker as long term Spillane replacement
2nd: Brown
3rd: guard to replace Onwenu
4th: safety to replace Byard

With the 5th and 6th rounders used to trade around the board and general flyers.

Doesn’t get a CB but hoping Davis will continue to play well to justify him sticking around for 2027.

Interesting team building year ahead no doubt.
A few things Pats should do imo to prepare for what looks like a good/BPA 2027 Draft:
1. Adjusting Salary Cap to Vrabels/future team - looking at Salary Cap Sheet i feel that it is still too much of a mix between old and new team. Not only Onwenu some other stuff as well. Time to clean it up.
2. League Evaluation & more assertive Trade/FA - NE are still up there near the top of Cap Space - but not for long. So next couple of years they can and should be more assertive to add some proven prime players (meaning players in their prime at prime positions/need)
3. Self Evaluation - last year was out-standing of course but kind of a trap re self-evaluation. This years reality (tougher schedule, more hostile environment, hanging expectations..) offers good opportunity to self-evaluate: every player, every position group, every aspect, every situation (coaching as well)..

Whatever anyone thinks this was BBs bread& butter.
If this is done with brutal honesty next Draft could be pure BPA.
Im not sure if boy Wolf and Vrabs are up for it though.