Welker's value according to Borges

[PATSNUTme]

Pats don't get Wes Welker's value | Boston Herald | Ron Borges

First I want to apologize to all Patsfans members and lurkers for posting an article by Borges. I feel so dirty.

However he gives his reasons that the Patriots do not "get" Welkers value. You may read ths artilce and discover that you learned nothing. But it is 3/7 and there have not been any new Welker rumor threads posted.

Depending on who you want to believe this week Wes Welker is either a) staying, b) leaving, c) closing in on a multiyear deal, d) willing to move out of New England, e) mildly peeved at the Patriots or f) coming to the realization he’s better off staying in New England than going elsewhere. Thank the Lord there are only 26 letters in the alphabet or who knows how far the speculation could stretch?

That seems to be a summary of "Welker Week" so far.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

once i read borges...i knew this thread was trash (sorry )

 

[Brady2Moss]

This is the dumbest thing I have ever read.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This is the dumbest thing I have ever read.

And you've been on this board since 2009?

 

[jmt57]

Borges has a point, but he is comparing apples to oranges with the stats he uses to support his position. (On a side note, the next time Borges has a pro-ownership, anti-player/union viewpoint it will be the first, but I digress).

Ron uses a dollar per reception statistical argument, but there are some flaws in his argument. First of all he compares to Ochocinco, which everyone knows was a decision that did not work out. It's such a huge outlier that it should not be used at all; if everyone was paid based on their productivity in comparison to Ochocinco's then the Patriots annual player budget would probably be about a thousand times larger than what the salary cap allows.

Two other players that he compares Welker to are Gronkowski and Hernandez, but he includes their recent signing bonuses when comparing the dollar per reception metric. Since those signing bonuses will be spread over several years, then obviously their current dollar per reception number will be much higher.

What it really comes down to is that Welker outperformed his last contract, so therefore he feels that the Patriots should make up for that now.

The unfortunate reality is that looking at past performance and using that to project future productivity makes sense for certain jobs - most any white collar office job, for example - but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense when it comes to paying a professional athlete in a sport with a hard salary cap.

That stinks for Welker, but that is the unfortunate way of the world in today's NFL.

 

[PATSNUTme]

once i read borges...i knew this thread was trash (sorry )

No offense taken.

I need to get stronger soap.

 

[Clonamery]

Borges' value according to Welker = {?}

 

[Brady2Moss]

And you've been on this board since 2009?

hahaha so true, fine one of the many many dumb things

 

[jmt57]

Rather than start yet another Welker thread, I'll place this here. It's the website of Welker's agents, Athletes First, headed by David Dunn and Brian Murphy. The link shows a list of their clients; among them are Patriot players Aaron Hernandez, Nate Solder, Zoltan Mesko, Shane Vereen - and Brian Waters.

Plenty of other NFL players too, including Mark Sanchez.

Athletes First | Athletes

 

[Sivy]

hahaha so true, fine one of the many many dumb things

This comes to mind

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...y-debate-thread-do-not-start-another-one.html

 

[Jackson 2]

Ronbo's take will be: if the Pats re-sign Welker, they'll be wrong and if the let him go, they'll be wrong. It's simple with Ronbo.

 

[Gumby]

Ronbo's take will be: if the Pats re-sign Welker, they'll be wrong and if the let him go, they'll be wrong. It's simple with Ronbo.

i am waiting for someone (an Indian "untouchable") to offer him or herself up and click the link and then post the 'money' sentence of the article to prooffer anything coherent other than.....

hearing that borges used ocho as a comparison datapoint shows the tiger stripes havent hcanged......

no prejudice too petty to not grind the axe;
no facts too troublesome or obviously opposite to him to derail him from his preset agenda

 

[Urgent]

OK, I'll play.

Without reading the article, it sounds like Borges is trying to calculate an objective value of a receiver. If the comparison is to Ocho Cinco in his one season with the Patriots, that is absurd. What is the value per sack, based on Fanene? Or value per interception, based on Will Allen?

But you can take that approach, somewhat more rationally.

I looked at the current salary cap figures for the top 10 receivers and compared that to yardage.

Based on readily available data (ESPN for receiving yardage and Overthecap.com for 2013 salary cap figures) you can make that calculation.

(A note - I used 2012 receiving yardage first, because that is the most recent data, and second, yardage, because this is not a "points per reception" fantasy league. I used 2013 salary cap data because that's the comparison for 2013 contract, and that's what's available on Overthecap.com. Since all the other top 10 receivers, other than Welker, are on current contracts, there shouldn't be an enormous difference from 2012, and certainly not a decrease from 2012 to 2013. If someone wants to dig up 2012 salary cap figures, see how these numbers might be slightly adjusted downward.)

So the data that follows is Player, Team, Receiving Yards, 2013 Cap cost, and $ per reception.

Wes Welker NEP 1354 $9,515,000 $7027

Calvin Johnson DET 1964 $12,200,000 $6212
Brandon Marshall CHI 1598 $9,300,000 $5820
Demaryius Thomas DEN 1434 $2,430,250 $1695
Vincent Jackson TB 1384 $2430,250 $1695
Dez Bryant DAL 1382 $3272999 $2365
Reggie Wayne IND 1355 $7,500,000 $5535
Roddy White ATL 1351 $9,125,000 $6754
AJ Green CIN 1350 $5,369,481 $3977

The average for the top 10, less Welker, is $4309 per yard.
If Welker were paid at that rate, he would make $5,835,000 per year.

Now one can argue that the rate is diluted by players on their rookie contract. You can remove Thomas, Bryant, and Green, leaving Johnson, Marshall, Jackson, Wayne, and White. The average now is $5337 per yard.

That yields a contract of $7,226,500 per year.

You could add another half dozen receivers that have passed through free agency - presumably as you add more, you will get lower-value contracts and the number will go back down.

So a contract in the range of $7,500,000 per year, escalating slightly with the value of the cap, would be slightly "above market" using a generous approach. That assumes that Welker will deliver 1350 yards per season for each year.

That comes back to around three years, $24mm, with half guaranteed and an option for a fourth year as a very fair contract for both sides.

 

[scout]

Thanks for the post. The Herald Sports is the first item on my favorite list. Top of the page was a picture of Welker, underneath the author. Why bother reading it because I have no respect for him, and I'll probably not gain any knowledge. Down my list of favorites is Patsfans, where I can chat and think threw other member's posts. This was so much more enjoyable. Thanks again.

 

[jmt57]

i am waiting for someone (an Indian "untouchable") to offer him or herself up and click the link and then post the 'money' sentence of the article to prooffer anything coherent other than.....

hearing that borges used ocho as a comparison datapoint shows the tiger stripes havent hcanged......

no prejudice too petty to not grind the axe;
no facts too troublesome or obviously opposite to him to derail him from his preset agenda

Aside from the synopsis in post #5, Borges also point out how durable he has been, comparing the number of games he has missed (3 regular season games in 6 years) to the number that Gronk (5 in 3 years) and Hernandez (10) have missed. He then reaches four conclusions, that (a) Welker won't get a big enough offer to leave, (b) the Pats think they'll be able to match any offer, (c) the Pats don't care and will say he was overpaid, or (d) the Pats think fans will remember the drops and not care.

Here is his conclusion:

Regardless of what metric you use, Welker has been the definition of a value pick. He’s been the epitome of durability. He has been the essence of reliability. And if he doesn’t have more than “mild disdain’’ for what’s gone on with him in Foxboro, he’s an idiot.

The same is true if he believes what happened to him early last season, when the Patriots tried to move away from him and in the direction of Hernandez, Gronkowski and Julian Edelman (who has missed 16 games in four seasons, or five times as many as Welker in six), won’t happen again if he stays.

If Welker believes the best deal for him is in New England, he should put all that aside and stay. But not until he knows what the real cost of staying is.

As I have said before, the Achilles Heel of Ron Borges' writing is anything to do with player or union versus owners, and any contract negotiations is certainly right up that alley. It's not that I think Borges is right or wrong on this topic, it's just that he always takes the same stance on the subject regardless of the specific situation; it is always that the player's position is right, the player deserves to be paid, and owners are big, bad meanies taking advantage of the little guys who have been so loyal. it's unfortunate that this is his favorite topic, because when it comes to X's and O's he is actually a very good football writer.

 

[Gumby]

Aside from the synopsis in post #5, Borges also point out how durable he has been, comparing the number of games he has missed (3 regular season games in 6 years) to the number that Gronk (5 in 3 years) and Hernandez (10) have missed. He then reaches four conclusions, that (a) Welker won't get a big enough offer to leave, (b) the Pats think they'll be able to match any offer, (c) the Pats don't care and will say he was overpaid, or (d) the Pats think fans will remember the drops and not care.

Here is his conclusion:




As I have said before, the Achilles Heel of Ron Borges' writing is anything to do with player or union versus owners, and any contract negotiations is certainly right up that alley. It's not that I think Borges is right or wrong on this topic, it's just that he always takes the same stance on the subject regardless of the specific situation; it is always that the player's position is right, the player deserves to be paid, and owners are big, bad meanies taking advantage of the little guys who have been so loyal. it's unfortunate that this is his favorite topic, because when it comes to X's and O's he is actually a very good football writer.

in honor of your undieing devotion to patsfan-dom;:eat3: I give you a meritorious promotion from untouchable to sudras.

THX.

PS you hit BINGO with the bold part. (not sure i agree on x & os)

the argument is all obvious or bs; well worth the NOT read.

everybody agrees of WW value to the team. (obvious)

to me, Borges always takes the pay the max position with no HOLISTIC thought. every contract affects all others-and has to be managed over years. he is just a writer and can discard that little problem, BB & RK cant.

 

[Spiral]

I like Welker and hope he re-signs with the team, but I don't think he's been overpaid. Forget the comparisons to other players. Consider this:

In 2007, the Patriots offered him more money than 30 other teams that had a chance to make him an offer. His then-current team decided not to match the Patriots' offer.

Playing with Brady (mostly) for the past six years, he put up better numbers than he would have if he'd been playing with any other quarterback. This is perhaps arguable, but barely. The fact that he signed a 5-year deal in 2007 was his (and his agents') decision. Would he have made more money the past three years if he had signed a 3-year deal in 2007? Sure, but that's his fault, not anyone else's. I'm sure the Patriots would have gladly signed him to a shorter deal if his agents wanted one.

So, if not for the Patriots, he would have been paid less money on his second contract and would (likely) have been less productive, reducing his earning potential for his third contract (which most players never even get to).

Wes--I hope you stick around, but if you go, be sure to say thank you on your way out of town.

 

[DarrylS]

Borges is dead to me.. everytime we post something he says he continues his miserable life.