Week 3 vs Buffalo: Media predictions & previews

[jmt57]

Mike Tanier of Football Outsiders is going with the Pats.

Week 3 N.F.L. Matchups - NYTimes.com

Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces Trent Edwards this week as the unlucky soul who stands behind the Bills’ offensive line and braces for impact. “We’re looking for a spark,” Coach Chan Gailey said of the change. How a journeyman with an 8-14-1 record and more interceptions (27) than touchdowns (21) can provide a spark is unknown. Maybe he’ll carry flint rocks in his pocket, hoping they’ll strike each other when he’s sacked.
Pick: PATRIOTS

 

[jmt57]

Walter Chrepinsky is still going with the Pats against the spread despite being burnt by them last week.

WalterFootball.com: NFL Picks Against the Spread - Week 3, 2010

BUFFALO OFFENSE: This Bills team is a disaster area. They have the worst quarterback situation in the NFL (aside from perhaps the Chiefs, simply because Matt Cassel is so overpaid); their offensive line is garbage; they have only one downfield weapon in Lee Evans; and they aren't using their No. 9 overall pick whatsoever. Seriously, Gailey, you took C.J. Spiller in the top 10. It was a stupid selection, but you could at least use him.

As we all saw on Sunday, New England's defense isn't very good. They were being pushed around by the Jets' offensive line, as LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene ripped off solid gains at will. The difference here though is that Buffalo's front won't be able to duplicate what New York's did. Thus, Fitzpatrick will be stuck in third-and-long situations all afternoon, which is never a good thing.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were moving the chains at will against the Jets in the first half, but failed to score a single point after intermission. Two things happened. First, Wes Welker took a shot to the head in the second quarter and consequently played just 39 snaps. And second, reliable third-down back Kevin Faulk left the game with a knee injury.

Welker will be fine, but the loss of Faulk to a torn ACL is the concern. However, I have faith in Bill Belichick to figure something out during the week. It was much tougher to do so during the game, but Belichick will find a viable replacement by Sunday.

The strength of Buffalo's team is its secondary, which is currently 17th against the pass. That ranking is a bit misleading because the Bills played Aaron Rodgers last week. However, it doesn't get any easier with Tom Brady on deck.

RECAP: There are three things that Tom Brady hates: barbers, women who aren't supermodels and the feeling of losing a football game. Since 2003, Brady is 13-6 against the spread following a loss. He's 6-3 versus the number after a defeat since 2006.

Of those six wins since 2006 - I doubt he's losing to Buffalo - check out his margin of victory: 25, 35, 33, 16, 59 and 10 (multiple screw-ups in the red zone). Poor Bills.

 

[jmt57]

Although Vegas is giving the Pats the highest point spread of any game this week, the computer simulator at What If Sports only ranked the pats as the 7th most likely team to win their matchup - though they still gave the Pats a 74.3% chance of winning. Their average score was the Pats 23, Bills 13.

2010 NFL Week 3 Picks and Predictions from Whatifsports.com From WhatIfSports.com

2010 NFL Week 3 - Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots From WhatIfSports.com

 

[jmt57]

Andy Hart of Patriots Football Weekly gives his keys to the game, one of which is below.

The Bills have a pretty good pass defense, one that ranked second in yards allowed and interception rate a year ago. They’re off to another decent start, thanks to solid play from cornerbacks Drayton Florence, Terrence McGee and Leodis McKelvin. The Patriots passing game is coming off a terrible second half in New York. The Bills defense is certainly not as good as New York’s, the only team it trailed in pass defense rankings last fall. Tom Brady and Co. must throw the football, get back on track and begin to build an offensive identity for 2010, without the help of Kevin Faulk. Brady must build confidence in his various weapons. But above all else he must protect the football. The Bills haven’t picked off a pass yet this season, but had an impressive 28 a year ago. Brady sometimes throws picks in bunches. That can’t happen in this one or the Bills may have a chance. And we need to see the first steps toward how the Patriots will perform without Faulk. No one man will fill the void and all the options begin the process against Buffalo.

Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog Blog Archive From the Hart: Bounce back Bills Friday Six-Pack


Here is his conclusion:

The Patriots are clearly the better team in this one. Buffalo has playmakers on both sides of the ball but just doesn’t put it together. The did play the Patriots tough last season as both New England wins went down to the wire. It’s hard to bet against 13 in a row. It’s hard to see Fitzpatrick outperforming Brady. It’s hard to think Gailey will outwit Belichick. That’s because it won’t happen. While I do believe that sooner or later the underwhelming Bills will stun the Patriots and end New England’s 13-game winning streak in the series, I won’t be predicting it to happen this week. I expect Brady and Co. to score a bunch of points and I think the defense builds some confidence. I think New England could put up 30-plus points in this one and unless the Bills get a bunch of big plays I don’t see the visitors coming close to keeping pace. Patriots win 31-13. It may not leave fans booking flights for Dallas, but it will certainly bring a better postgame feeling than the one that settled into Patriots Nation last Sunday.

 

[jmt57]

A pair of PatsFans.com contributors preview the game.


Don't Take The Bills Too Lightly

Despite the plethora of problems with the Bills organization, I'd caution anyone to write this week's match-up off as a cakewalk for the Patriots. Yes, I know how horrible the Bills are. I mean, their last win was against the Colts' backups...in the snow. But, Buffalo has given some good teams some trouble before. As evidenced in both this season and last.

The 0-2 Bills have a new look this year. Under new coach Chan Gailey, Buffalo's defense is amidst a transformation to the 3-4. A process which, as evidenced by the Packers dropping 34 points on them last Sunday, is sure to have it's growing pains. Yet, as Belichick noted Wednesday, the Bills' defense kept their two games close, at least for a while.

My Five Keys To Victory For The Patriots Against The Bills ats Confidential

This is a game where I think the Pats should really involve Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in the passing game. The strength of the Bills defense has to be the defensive backs. The tight ends could have a field day in the middle of the field as they will probably be covered by their linebackers. If you get the tight ends involved it could also make it easier to get the ball to the wide receivers. This is a perfect game to show how diverse the Pats passing game could be.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

Have the Patriots winning big today. Have the Dolphins winning a close one against the Jets tonght. Have the Patriots making a big time statement on the road next Monday night against the 3 -0 Fins.