So last week wasn't so great. I won my long shots but came up short on the money safe bets. Down from 200 to 187 about. Hoping to turn that around this week. And again, I am not promoting betting or using these particular picks. This isn't advice. Just seeing what I can do with 200 bucks from week 1 to the end of the super bowl.
Took the Falcons over the Giants at a rate of 1 to gain 2.35 - I really think either team could be favored here. Seems like a good bet considering that.
Took the Eagles over Dallas with an alternate spread of 2.5 at a rate of 1 to gain 2.9. - I don't expect to win this, but i think the Eagles are being slightly underrate and Dallas is being pumped up a bit due to a very strong weak 1 which showed their absolute ceiling. I also like to take alternate spreads when possible instead of straight money lines. My logic is that games are so rarely decided by 1-2 points that you gain a lot of value taking those. At times 30-50% more.
For Vikings vs Seahawks I took the prop KJ Osborn to get 42.5 receiving yards. He seems to have really come on in year 2 and i see this as a game that will feature lots of scoring and passing on both sides. A rate of 1 to gain 1.87
For Rams vs Bucs I took the prop Brady passing TDs at 2.5 at a rate of 1 to gain 2.25. The Bucs will score no matter who they play, and I don't think they can run vs this front in the goal line. Plus I now believe Brady and the Bucs are determined to get that passing TD record. So I will be taking this kind of prop almost every week until it becomes 3.5
For Rams vs Bucs I took the alternative spread of Bucs -6 at a rate of 1 to gain 2.9. I just really like this rate. And I think if the Bucs do win, which they might not, it will because they can't score much. If they can score, they will score enough to win by more than 6 most likely. So I see it being a 20-23/24 loss or a 31-23/24 win.
For Chargers vs KC I took the prop Austin Ekeler for over 40.5 receiving yards at a rate of 1 to gain 1.9. I see this game turning into a passing fest on the Chargers side. Ekeler will be be seeing a fair amount of looks as KC likes to play back and their LBs stink at pass defense.
For Jets vs Broncos I took the prop Zach Wilson to throw over 1.5 Ints at a rate of 1 to gain 2.55, He's been shaking all year with ball protection. For these odds I'll take a chance it continues. In reality he doesn't even need to play that bad to hit this. 1 bad throw in the game and then potentially trying to come back late down (which they likely will be doing) to throw another.
For Pats vs Saints I took the Mac Jones prop of over 31.5 attempts. I lost on a similar bet last week. But I would have won if the Pats weren't up so much late. I see the Saints strong run D forcing us to pass a lot. I like to bet at a straight forward rate of 1 to gain 2.
For Pats vs Saints I took the prop Winston throwing under 216 yards. at a rate of 1 to gain 1.9. I see this being a close game. The Saints have been hesitant to let Winston throw a lot. I also see a lot of 3 and outs and this being a low scoring game where they stick to the ground a lot.
So those are my bets. Hopefully I make up some ground this week.
