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Week 16 Pats at Bills pre-game analysis and opinions

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JMT57, thanks for those pre-game threads.. they are very enjoyable.
 
JMT57, thanks for those pre-game threads.. they are very enjoyable.
Glad you enjoy them. Here's an interview with Deion Branch. In the video he talks about how competitive Brady is: when Branch beats Brady in ping pong, it's time to get a new ping pong paddle.

Deion Branch: 'This is the most important game' - Extra Points - Boston.com

Branch spoke about the importance of the younger players focusing on the task at hand this time of year.

"The guys see the way we've been going out practicing, I think they're starting to... the sense of urgency is there from all of us," Branch said. "I think the guys get it."

Branch was asked if Tom Brady, who is battling the flu, was the kind of player who could miss practice and still be ready to go on Sunday.

"We gotta do what we have to do," Branch said. "Whatever it takes to get Tom up to full steam. If he needs to rest two or three days, that's what he's got to do."

At the end of the video above, Branch talks about the off-field competition he has with Brady on the ping-pong table.

"I make him mad all the time," Branch said laughing. "That guy's very competitive. I beat him most of the time, but then he breaks the paddle so we can't play no more."
 
Patriots Key to Victory: Defense Must Wrap Up Fred Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick - New England Patriots - NESN.com - Jeff Howe

While Jackson can run through the tackles, he is unquestionably at his best when he’s in space and can get to the edge, so it’s going to be vitally important for outside linebackers Jermaine Cunningham, Tully Banta-Cain and Rob Ninkovich to contain the edge and keep Jackson from breaking out a big run. If Jackson can get to the edge, the Patriots will again need solid tacking performances from a pair of cornerbacks who specialize in that area, Devin McCourty and Kyle Arrington.

Jackson hasn’t been a huge receiving threat in recent weeks, catching just two passes for nine yards in Buffalo’s last three games, but when he struggles in the running game -- like he did against Pittsburgh -- the Bills will use dump-offs and screens for the simple purpose of getting him the ball in space.

Steve Johnson has been a surprising star at wide receiver, and he has easily emerged as quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick’s go-to target. Johnson has 72 receptions for 943 yards and 10 touchdowns, and he caught a touchdown pass in Week 3 against the Patriots. Johnson is still immature, though, and he can be frustrated by New England’s complex coverage schemes, if the Patriots decide to go that route on him.

Fitzpatrick has been a surprise for the Bills, completing 58.7 percent of his passes for 2,749 yards, 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and he’s also second on the team with 255 rushing yards. The Harvard grad will play with some passion, take his chances and do the things necessary to win, and he threw with surprising accuracy in Week 3 at Gillette Stadium. He might be similar in a way to Packers quarterback Matt Flynn, who can manage the game but will also make some mistakes against an opportunistic defense, and it’s important for the Patriots to finish their tackles if they get near Fitzpatrick.
 
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NFL Picks: Week 16 - Rich Levine - CSNNE.com
The Game: New England at Buffalo (-8.5)

I’m torn here. On one hand, this Bills’ offense is just crazy and unpredictable enough to keep this game close — much the way it did in the first meeting. There’s also the fact that the game is in Buffalo (not the easiest place to play) and the very real temptation to take the Bills lightly.

But then again, I feel like there’s too much on the line for the Pats to let this one slip away, or even let it stay close. First of all, they haven’t clinched anything but a playoff spot. The AFC East? Home-field advantage? That only comes with one more win, and there’s no way they want to wait until Week 17. Also, don’t think the Pats won’t want to send a message on Sunday. Not with how everyone was talking about their defense after barely beating the Packers. They’ll use that Green Bay game as a wake up call, and the Buffalo game to vent all their frustrations.

The Pick: Patriots (-8.5)



Chris Gasper's 3 keys to beating the Bills - Extra Points - Boston.com
1. Patriots must win the turnover battle
2. Run the ball on the Buffalo defense
3. Stop Bills' wide receiver Steve Johnson



patriots - Week 16 NFL Picks: Will the Patriots clinch the one seed? - WEEI | Kirk Minihane
If the Patriots had beat the Bills 48-10 in Week 3 I might have felt different about this one. But it was a 38-30 game, with the Bills putting up almost 400 yards. I'm sure that has been a big theme all week. Combine that with the chance to lock up the one seed in the AFC with a win -- which could really mean two weeks off -- and the lackluster effort vs. the Packers and I think you're looking at a two-touchdown win. Call it 38-24, Pats.



Bruschi's Breakdown: The New England Patriots know they're in for a test Sunday against the Bills - ESPN Boston
Mike: When we watched that Bills-Dolphins game, a couple of those throws were just eye-opening. The 18-yard touchdown to receiver David Nelson, in particular, was a throw that not too many quarterbacks will make. It was very risky into heavy traffic, but also very well done.

Tedy: He doesn't care who you are as a defensive player. That was Dolphins linebacker Karlos Dansby down the middle of the field in sort of a "Tampa 2" type of concept. Nelson was threatening the middle of the field and Dansby dropped back and was in position, yet Fitzpatrick still threw the ball because he had nothing to lose. Fitzpatrick doesn't look at jersey numbers, he doesn't care who you are, where you're from, how much you get paid; if he sees the read and likes where he is going to put the ball, he's going to trust his players to make a play. That will be a test for the Patriots this week -- they could be in position, but can they make plays on the ball?
Mike: Weather conditions are unpredictable, but the initial forecast calls for temperatures in the high teens with the possibility for some snow showers. The Patriots are the better team and should win if they bring their best effort. I think the offense should return to its form after a struggle of sorts against the Packers and the defense will continue to pick up those crucial turnovers. The potential is there for special teams fireworks. Patriots 27, Bills 20.

Tedy: The Bills have played the Pats tough in the last couple of games. They want this game badly so it can be a springboard into a positive offseason. You never know what to expect from a team that has nothing to lose. This won't be a cakewalk. Pats 30, Bills 24.
 
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Some comments made by Buffalo beat writer Mark Gaughan in his weekly chat session today:

BillBoard - Blogs - The Buffalo News

I think the chances of beating the Pats are ... 20 percent ... I think the Bills can move on Pats D ... I don't see them stopping Brady.
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It seems to me every time they give Woodhead the ball, the defense is on its heels playing pass ... That's the great thing about pats offense - they have weapons all over the field and Brady will get it to any of them ... Kinda like Fitz ... only so much better ...
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I don't think the weather will inhibit the passing games at all. We might well all be wrong, but if we are it won't be becasue of the weather ... I don't see the Bills holding NE under 24 ...

I haven't seen the forecast for wind ... that would be the key, of course.
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I don't think it will be ugly because I don't think the Pats defense will totally shut down the Bills.
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Pats doing good this year ... they're 5th in average drive start defense ... Punting still not a strength ... but they're punting more for hang time ... of course Spiller took one back on em in first game ...
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(Spiller's) done it (lined up as a WR) a bunch ... did it a bunch last week in Miami.
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(Regarding Chan Gailey): I think there have been a lot of strengths evident ... Good offensive game planner ... good use of talent, meaning he asks his offensive players to do what they're good at ... gets the most out of the talent ... much better at holding players accountable than **** Jauron.. Organized. It's been a good start for the head coach.
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(Regarding David Nelson): Smart guy. Very mature. Says a lot about the talent that Urban Meyer recruited at Fla. that he didn't start more there ... Bills have deep WR corps. There's going to be intense competition to get on the field next year ... because you have to add Marcus Easley to the mix. I see 86 as a slot receiver next year again.
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I agree that (Moorman) has not been as good at putting the ball deep inside the 20 as in the past ... his numbers are worse because he's been punting from midfield situations much more than in the past ... but he's still a good punter. They ask him to do a lot of directional punting ... The longest PR allowed all year is 24 yards and I think that's the only 20-plus return allowed ... so overall they've had "winning" punting ..
 
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Patriots Football Weekly Blog - From The Hart: Bills Friday Six-Pack - Andy Hart
2. Run, Benny, Run! – The Bills have a terrible run defense, ranking last in the NFL allowing more than 158 yards a game. Conversely BenJarvus Green-Ellis is coming down the home stretch on a possible 1,000-yard season. I think the coaches would like to see him get it, and this week’s game could be a big step in that direction. The only issue here would be a possible change at right guard, with Ryan Wendell having to fill in for Dan Connolly thanks to the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week’s concussion against the Packers. Other than that I expect the Patriots to run the ball early and often in Buffalo. Beyond how bad the Bills are against the run, there’s always a chance that wind and weather are an issue at Ralph Wilson Stadium. (Snow showers and a high of 21 are expected!) This is a great week to take some of the pressure off Brady, especially if he and his receivers are a little under the weather, and let the Law Firm and his backfield friends have some fun.
6. Give Buffalo Fitz – The Harvard Man Fitzpatrick seems to be getting Harvard As these days for his play. He’s been good but not great. But since he’s following up a bunch of bums at the position for the Bills, everyone is in love with Fitzpatrick. He’s competing less than 59 percent of this passes and has a passer rating of 85. That’s not all that impressive, certainly not enough to deserve Pro Bowl votes (right T-Sizzle?). He’s thrown 23 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions, but he does take chances with the ball on occasion. He runs around a little bit and tries to make plays. New England’s opportunistic defense not only has to keep him from making those plays, it needs to take full advantage when he’s a little loose with the football. Johnson is having a great breakout year and hurt the Patriots the first time around. He’s the only real weapon, so make sure he’s covered and it’s unlikely that Fitzpatrick will be able to throw it all over the field. For all the wins (4) and good feelings in Buffalo, the Bills have scored more than 17 points just once in their last six games. I know the pass rush for the Patriots has been suspect, is now banged up and the Bills haven’t given up a huge number of sacks, but I think New England can get after, confuse and disrupt Fitzpatrick. Make him look like what he is, a journeyman quarterback, and not what people strangely want to make him into, the future of the quarterback position in Buffalo.



It Is What It Is - Nuggetpalooza’s Patriots vs Bills Preview!
* – So far in 2010, the Patriots have scored 446 points while gaining 4,970 yards, an average of 11.14 yards per point scored. Check out the best averages in the NFL since 1990:

11.14 – Patriots, 2010
11.17 – Patriots, 2007 (16-0 regular season, Super Bowl)
11.27 – Vikings, 1998 (15-1, #1 seed)
11.87 – Chargers, 2006 (14-2, #1 seed)

All hail the value of an efficient offense and defensive/return touchdowns!


* – On the flip side, the Patriots have allowed 303 points while giving up 5,245 yards, an average of 17.31 yards per point allowed. It would be the seventh season in the last eight in which New England has posted an average if 16.00 or higher. No other team has more than five such seasons in that span.

All hail the value of “bend but don’t break”!


* – Wanna know one reason how the Patriots can look so pedestrian on defense and still win? Make your opponent drive the whole field. New England has allowed their opponent to begin a drive on the Patriots’ side of the 50-yard-line only six times this season, on pace for the fewest in a season by any team since at least 1995:

6 – Patriots, 2010 (on pace for 7)
9 – Dolphins, 2008
9 – Giants, 2008
10 – Done five times since 1995 (two by the Patriots: 2007 and 2009)

Note this: The Patriots are on the verge of leading the league in this category for the third time in four seasons.



It Is What It Is -- Eight listed as questionable for Patriots, including Aaron Hernandez and James Sanders
Doubtful
G Dan Connolly (concussion) Did Not Participate

Questionable
LB Tully Banta-Cain (groin) Limited Participation
DL Ron Brace (concussion) Limited Participation
LB Jermaine Cunningham (calf) Limited Participation
DL Brandon Deaderick (shoulder/flu) Did Not Participate
TE Aaron Hernandez (hip) Limited Participation
NT Myron Pryor (back) Limited Participation
S James Sanders (flu) Did Not Participate
DL Mike Wright (concussion) Did Not Participate

Probable
CB Kyle Arrington (elbow) Full Participation
QB Tom Brady (right shoulder/foot) Limited Participation
WR Deion Branch (knee) Limited Participation
CB Devin McCourty (rib) Full Participation
 
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I think that this game is going to cause a lot of blood-pressure spikes for Patriots fans. I see this starting out much like the game against the Lions. The Bills are coming around, and learning how to win. they are hungry, and have a good QB.

I expect the Patriots to win this, but in a fairly close game.
 
Patriots Win: Turn Page to Buffalo

Patriots Win: Turn Page to Buffalo
By: Derek Havens

After a tough victory at home against the Packers in week 15, the Patriots have turned the page to the Buffalo Bills. A win will ensure the Patriots have the AFC's top seed, an AFC ? East division title, and home field advantage for the playoffs. ...

 
Six Patriots Downgraded to Out

Six Patriots Downgraded to Out
By: Derek Havens

The Patriots have downgraded TE Aaron Hernandez, OLB Jermaine Cunningham, OL Dan Connolly, DE Brandon Deaderick, DL Mike Wright and DL Myron Pryor to OUT for Sunday’s game in Buffalo. These players will not suit up.

With Hernandez out, the Pats could be using more 3 WR sets. Look for Edelman and Tate to see more action.

Second-year offensive lineman Ryan Wendall and five-year vet Quinn Ojinnaka the candidates to start at right guard.

And with Jermaine Cunningham out, Pats lose starting OLB in 3-4 alignment. Tully Banta-Cain, if healthy, probably steps in. Along with Banta-Cain, Eric Moore will probably see his playing time as well. Setting the edge against shifty runners Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will be key.

 
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This one's a W. After letting their guard down and playing very sloppy on defense. BB has all the ammo he needs to get everyone's full attention. Now I will say that rush defense will have my full attention. Jackson can play, albiet behind a suspect line. If NE can stop the run without the LB creeping up to the line of scrimmage. I like our chances going forward. This young secondary stinks when leaning forward for run support. Let em sit back and play, I like their chances, young and fast.
 
NESN's Jeff Howe had five questions for a longtime Bills' reporter:

Trio of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, Steve Johnson Means Patriots Can't Take Revitalized Bills Lightly -
Across Enemy Lines - NESN.com - Jeff Howe


NESN: How has the switch to a 4-3 base helped Buffalo's defense?

S.M.: The Bills went all in with the switch to the 3-4 in the offseason, but the problem was there weren't enough players familiar with the scheme to make it work. It's going to take at least another draft to bring in the right mix of players. This year, Gailey went back and forth from 3-4 to 4-3 because it was all he could do to stop opposing teams who were gouging the 3-4. In the last few weeks, the defense has played better, and it looks as if the 3-4 will be the defense down the road.??

NESN: Where in the world did Steve Johnson's production come from?

S.M.: Johnson was the best story of the year for the Bills, a former seventh-round pick who'd made just 12 catches in his first two seasons. When Terrell Owens and Josh Reed were let go in the offseason, the Bills needed someone to step up and fill the void, and Johnson has done a nice job. In fact, some would say he's now the No. 1 receiver on the team, not Lee Evans.



Mike Reiss lists ten things to watch for against the Bills:

10 things to watch for New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills game - espnBoston

1. Limiting Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller on the ground. A big part of the Bills' recent success is because of solid quarterback play from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and his job is made easier when Fred Jackson -- and to a lesser extent C.J. Spiller -- get things going on the ground. The Patriots figure to be willing to live with a game in which the Bills are forced to throw the ball, figuring that Fitzpatrick's fearless approach will eventually result in some turnovers on which they can capitalize. That's why keeping Jackson in check is a top priority.

2. Establishing early balance with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. The Bills rank last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (158.6), so there should be good opportunities to create positive momentum in the running game. A message in the Patriots' locker room Friday reminded players to bring extra long stud screws for their cleats because there was a good chance of snow, and in those types of conditions, the running game and ball security figure to have added importance.

3. No repeat in the return game. C.J. Spiller, the Bills' 2010 first-round draft choice, showed how explosive he can be when he returned a kickoff for a 95-yard touchdown in the first meeting between the teams back in September. The Patriots have looked vulnerable on kickoff coverage at times this season and Spiller can be a game-changer.
 
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Ralph Wilson Stadium: 10% chance of snow by gametime (40% by halftime)

From Weather.com

Ralph Wilson Stadium
1pm: 10% precip
2pm: 10% precip
3pm: 40% precip
4pm: 40% precip

Currently 22°F and cloudy.
 
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Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 30-40% chance of snow

I'll be heading out in an hour or two, but it definitely fells like snow.
 
Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 30-40% chance of snow

I'll be heading out in an hour or two, but it definitely fells like snow.

Are you located in the Buffalo area?
 
Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 30-40% chance of snow

Ugh, downgraded to 10% precip at 1pm.

Rest is the same, though.
 
Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 10% chance of snow by gametime (40% by halftime)

In other words, 10% chance at gametime for a blowout, 40% chance a blowout happens after the half.
 
I was looking forward to someone saying that it was the Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl (only the Bills get to have 2 Super Bowls a year; the first was when they came to Foxboro. ).

I guess if the Bills can be dangerous (do the Pats now have a 15 game winning streak against them?), than any team can be dangerous.

Maybe that's the problem. Buffalo treats the New England games like a Super Bowl, and we all know how well they did in their Super Bowl appearances... :singing:

Okay, I'm psyched. It's 9 am and my wife is getting annoyed by my hyperness. I would love to see the team come out focused and take care of business right away. That would bode well for the future.

So much of our hopes ride on this young defense. They seem to rise to the occasion, or play down to the level of the opponent. This is an important game, even if the opponent is not going to the play-offs. I want to see them treat it that way.
 
Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 10% chance of snow by gametime (40% by halftime)

In other words, 10% chance at gametime for a blowout, 40% chance a blowout happens after the half.

Sounds good to me.

Though I'm sure the Bills are used to playing in snow as well. Though I can't recall a game this year that they did. And I wonder if Gailey has had to prepare for a game with snow before.
 
Re: Ralph Wilson Stadium: 10% chance of snow by gametime (40% by halftime)

If Chicago can't handle us in the snow its highly unlikely Buffalo can, even without the snow we are just way too much.
 
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