Week 14 Maps & other NFL pre-game discussion

[jmt57]

After a couple of weeks with virtually no network distribution of Pats games, all out of town Patriot fans get to see their team play Thursday night. On Sunday the primary games will be Chiefs at Dolphins and Vikings at Bucs early, and Saints at Eagles late.

In other broadcast news, next week's Cowboys-49ers game has been flexed out of Sunday Night Football. For years networks have jumped through hoops to get broadcast rights to a Cowboys game, but last night's pathetic performance was the last straw.




National Broadcasts

• Thursday Night: New England @ LA Rams (FOX/NFLN)
• Sunday Night: Pittsburgh @ Buffalo (NBC)
• Monday Night: Baltimore @ Cleveland (ESPN)

CBS Single Game

Early Games:
Red: Kansas City @ Miami; Jim Nantz, Tony Romo
Green: Houston @ Chicago; Kevin Harlan, Trent Green
Orange: Denver @ Carolina; Andrew Catalon, James Lofton
Aqua: Tennessee @ Jacksonville; Spero Dedes, Adam Archuleta
Late Games:
Blue: Indianapolis @ Las Vegas; Ian Eagle, Charles Davis
Yellow: NY Jets @ Seattle; Greg Gumbel, Rich Gannon

Fox Early Game

Red: Minnesota @ Tampa Bay; Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
Blue: Arizona @ NY Giants; Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma
Green: Dallas @ Cincinnati; Kevin Kugler, Chris Spielman

Fox Late Game

Red: New Orleans @ Philadelphia; Kevin Burkhardt, Daryl Johnston
Blue: Green Bay @ Detroit; Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth
Green: Washington vs San Francisco (in Arizona); Chris Myers, Greg Jennings
Yellow: Atlanta @ LA Chargers; Joe Davis, Brock Huard

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[denverpatsfan]

Damn. They bench Wentz and now I can't watch!

 

[oldrover]

I am map-free now. We cancelled cable for a variety of reasons... and now I am...

...at least... in my mind.

 

[jmt57]

In a bit of a rarity there are ten road favorites, with just six home teams favored.
That doesn't include Pittsburgh, who opened as a road favorite but are now an underdog at Buffalo.
Only one game currently has a line of more than 7½ points: the Jete at Seattle.
There are four games between two teams with winning records (in bold), plus two more with both teams at least at .500 (italics).

Odds as of Wednesday evening:

6-6 Patriots at 8-4 Rams (-5)
9-2 Packers (-7½) at 5-7 Lions
8-4 Titans (-7½) at 1-11 Jaguars
3-9 Cowboys (-3½) at 2-9-1 Bengals
6-6 Cardinals (-2) at 5-7 Giants
4-8 Texans (-1½) at 5-7 Bears
4-8 Broncos at 4-8 Panthers (-3½)
6-6 Vikings at 7-5 Buccaneers (-6½)
11-1 Chiefs (-7) at 8-4 Dolphins
8-4 Colts (-3) at 7-5 Raiders
0-12 Jets at 8-4 Seahawks (-13½)
4-8 Falcons (-2½) at 3-9 Chargers
10-2 Saints (-7) at 3-8-1 Eagles
5-7 Washington at 5-7 49ers (-3)
11-1 Steelers at 9-2 Bills (-2½)
7-5 Ravens (-1) at 9-3 Browns

 

[jmt57]

There was very little change in the playoff picture last week, as most teams in the hunt won in week 13. The division lead for Seattle lasted all of one week as the Seahawks were upset by the Giants. The Rams moved up from #5 to #3, bumping Green Bay up to the #2 slot, while NYG maintains its position as the NFC East leader to their head to head tiebreaker over Washington.

Tennessee's loss to Cleveland dropped them to an identical 8-4 record with Indianapolis in the AFC South. Those two split their season series, with the Titans owning the tiebreaker based on division records. That result did move Buffalo up one notch to the #3 seed. Pittsburgh remains the #1 seed in the AFC despite their loss last week due to the conference record tiebreaker. The Steelers loss was to Washington, while KC's was in week five, 40-32 to the Raiders.

If the season were to end today there would be two teams with winning records missing the postseason (Raiders, Ravens), and two teams without a winning record making the playoffs (Cardinals, Vikings).

Current AFC Playoff Teams​

1. Steelers (AFC North leader) – 11-1 overall / 4-0 division / 8-0 conference

Remaining games: at Bills (9-3), at Bengals (2-9-1), vs Colts (8-4), at Browns (9-3)

2. Chiefs (AFC West leader) – 11-1 overall / 4-1 division / 9-1 conference

Remaining games: at Dolphins (8-4), at Saints (10-2), vs Falcons (4-8), vs Chargers (3-9)

3. Bills (AFC East leader) – 9-3 overall / 4-0 division / 6-2 conference

Remaining games: vs Steelers (11-1), at Broncos (4-8), at Patriots (6-7), vs Dolphins (8-4)

4. Titans (AFC South leader) – 8-4 overall / 3-1 division / 6-4 conference

Remaining games: at Jaguars (1-11), vs Lions (5-7), at Packers (9-3), at Texans (4-8)

5. Browns (First wild card) – 9-3 overall / 2-2 division / 6-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Ravens (7-5), at Giants (5-7), at Jets (0-12), vs Steelers (11-1)

6. Dolphins (Second wild card) – 8-4 overall / 2-2 division / 5-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Chiefs (11-1), vs Patriots (6-7), at Raiders (7-5), at Bills (9-3)

7. Colts (Third wild card) – 8-4 overall / 2-2 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Raiders (7-5), vs Texans (4-8), at Steelers (11-1), vs Jaguars (1-11)

Within Reach​

8. Raiders – 7-5 overall / 3-1 division / 5-3 conference

Remaining games: vs Colts (8-4), vs Chargers (3-9), vs Dolphins (8-4), at Broncos (4-8)

9. Ravens – 7-5 overall / 2-2 division / 4-5 conference

Remaining games: at Browns (9-3), vs Jaguars (1-11), vs Giants (5-7), at Bengals (2-9-1)

10. Patriots – 6-7 overall / 2-1 division / 5-4 conference

Remaining games: at Dolphins (8-4), vs Bills (9-3), vs Jets (0-12)

Current NFC Playoff Teams​

1. Saints (NFC South leader) – 10-2 overall / 5-0 division / 8-1 conference

Remaining games: at Eagles (3-8-1), vs Chiefs (11-1), vs Vikings (6-6), at Panthers (4-8)

2. Packers (NFC North leader) – 9-3 overall / 3-1 division / 7-2 conference
Remaining games: at Lions (5-7), vs Panthers (4-8), vs Titans (8-4), at Bears (5-7)

3. Rams (NFC West leader) – 9-4 overall / 2-2 division / 8-2 conference

Remaining games: vs Jets (0-12), at Seahawks (8-4), vs Cardinals (6-6)

4. Giants (see NFC East below) – 5-7

5. Seahawks (First wild card) – 8-4 overall / 2-2 division / 6-3 conference
Remaining games: vs Jets (0-12), at Washington (5-7), vs Rams (9-4), at 49ers (5-7)

6. Buccaneers (Second wild card) – 7-5 overall / 2-2 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: vs Vikings (6-6), at Falcons (4-8), at Lions (5-7), vs Falcons (4-8)

7. Vikings (Third wild card) – 6-6 overall / 3-1 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Bucs (7-5), vs Bears (5-7), at Saints (10-2), vs Lions (5-7)

Within A Game​

8. Cardinals – 6-6 overall / 2-2 division / 4-4 conference

Remaining games: at Giants (5-7), vs Eagles (3-8-1), vs 49ers (5-7), at Rams (9-4)

9. Bears – 5-7 overall / 1-3 division / 5-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Texans (4-8), at Vikings (6-6), at Jaguars (1-11), vs Packers (9-3)

10. Lions – 5-7 overall / 1-3 division / 4-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Packers (9-3), at Titans (8-4), vs Bucs (7-5), vs Vikings (6-6)

11. 49ers – 5-7 overall / 2-2 division / 3-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Washington (5-7), at Cowboys (3-9), at Cardinals (6-6), vs Seahawks (8-4)

12. Washington – 5-7

NFC Least​

4. Giants (NFC East leader) – 5-7 overall / 3-2 division / 4-6 conference
Remaining games: vs Cardinals (6-6), vs Browns (9-3), at Ravens (7-5), vs Cowboys (3-9)

12. Washington (NFC #2) – 5-7 overall / 3-2 division / 3-5 conference
Remaining games: at 49ers (5-7), vs Seahawks (8-4), vs Panthers (4-8), at Eagles (3-8-1)

15. Eagles (NFC #3) – 3-8-1 overall / 2-2 division / 3-5 conference

Remaining games: vs Saints (10-2), at Cardinals (6-6), at Cowboys (3-9), vs Washington (5-7)

16. Cowboys (NFC #4) – 3-9 overall / 1-3 division / 3-6 conference
Remaining games: at Bengals (2-9-1), vs 49ers (5-7), vs Eagles (3-8-1), at Giants (5-7)

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[Scotty]

In the UK we can see Chiefs v Dolphins then Colts v Raiders , then Steelers v Bills

 

[jmt57]

There are plenty of competitive matchups with major playoff implications in Week 14.

1.) 11-1 Steelers at 9-3 Bills
- For Pittsburgh a loss drops them to #2 seed (if KC wins at Miami). It also opens up the door to further drops as Buffalo would be only one game behind (and own the tiebreaker) and Cleveland could be just one game behind for the AFCN division title as well.
- A Buffalo win plus a Miami loss to KC gives the Bills a two-game advantage for the AFC East title with just three games left to play.

2.) 11-1 Chiefs at 8-4 Dolphins
- Kansas City can grab the #1 seed and a bye with a win here, coupled by a Pittsburgh loss. But if KC loses and Pittsburgh wins, then the Chiefs would need the Steelers to lose twice in their final three games to overtake Pittsburgh for the #1 seed.
- A Miami win plus a Buffalo loss puts the Dolphins just one game behind the Bills for the AFC East, and at minimum maintains their lead over the Ravens and Raiders for a wild card.

3.) 7-5 Ravens at 9-3 Browns
- A Baltimore win potentially ties them with Miami and either Indy or Tennessee at 8-5. A victory also means the Ravens win any tiebreaker with Cleveland, having already defeated the Browns in week one.
- The Browns have the potential to be breathing down Pittsburgh's neck in the AFC North with a win, or on the precipice of tumbling out of the playoffs with a loss. Cleveland will still be among the top seven with a loss, but they will be uncomfortably close to Baltimore and possibly the Raiders.

4.) 8-4 Colts at 7-5 Raiders
- A victory gives Indy nine wins on the season, meaning they will be in the playoffs even if they lose two of their last three.
- The Raiders would move past the Colts with a win by virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker.

5.) 8-4 Titans at 1-11 Jaguars
- Tennessee needs this game to stay ahead of the Colts for the AFC North title, and avoid getting in the quagmire of AFC teams vying for a wildcard.
- Jacksonville is in a position that a win hurts them, as a loss keeps them in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes.

6.) 10-2 Saints at 3-8-1 Eagles
- New Orleans needs another win without Drew Brees to maintain their overall lead in the NFC.
- Philly seemingly had the division gift wrapped for them back in September, based on the woes of the rest of the NFC East. A loss plus a win by either NYG or Washington would be insurmountable, putting the Eagles 2½ back with three games to play.

7.) 9-3 Packers at 5-7 Lions
- Green Bay defeated the Saints early this season, so a Packers win plus a New Orleans loss makes Green Bay the #1 seed.
- The Lions are just one game behind Minnesota for a wild card spot, potentially setting up a win or go home game in week 17 at home versus the Vikings.

8.) 6-6 Cardinals at 5-7 Giants
- After a 5-2 start Arizona is now on the outside looking in, losing a common games tiebreaker to Minnesota. They desperately need a win here after losing three in a row and four of their last five.
- NYG has won four in a row, tied with Cleveland for the third longest winning streak. The Gints problem is that their 1-7 start leaves little margin of error. A win here maintains their NFC East lead, and also keeps alive the potential as making it as a wild card.

9.) 7-5 Buccaneers at 6-6 Vikings
- Minnesota quietly moved into the final wildcard spot last week, a remarkable feat after a 1-5 start and then losing to Dallas. A win puts them in the #6 spot, a loss puts them in the tangled mess of a half dozen NFC teams fighting each other for the last playoff spot.
- Losses in three of the last four games has dropped Tampa from having a solid grip on the first wildcard, to needing a win here to avoid dropping to the #7 seed.

10.) 5-7 Washington at 5-7 49ers
- Washington is in the same boat as the Giants, winning three straight after a horrendous start. Their best path to the playoffs is by winning the division rather than as a wildcard. For that to happen WTF needs to start with a win here.
- Earlier this season San Francisco looked like a playoff team after defeating the Rams and Patriots by a combined score of 57-22. The Niners have lost four out of five since then and would have too many teams to leapfrog if they lose this game.

11.) 0-12 Jets at 8-4 Seahawks
- Remember in October when talk was that Russell Wilson would be MVP, and Seattle was headed to the Super Bowl? At the same time the two worst teams in the NFL were the Giants and the Jets. Last week Seattle lost to the first NY/NJ team, could it happen again to the other?
- Seattle began the season 5-0 and 6-1, with their offense continually bailing out a porous defense. Over the last four games Seattle has averaged 19.8 points per game - despite three of those games being played against teams with losing records.
- A win allows Seattle to keep pace with the Rams in the NFCW, tied at 9-4. perhaps more importantly in strengthens their hold on the #5 seed - a spot that would play the NFC East champion - rather than having to go to the Rams or Packers or Saints.

The other inter-conference game are of virtually no consequence to the playoff picture:
4-8 Texans at 5-7 Bears
3-9 Cowboys at 2-9-1 Bengals
4-8 Broncos at 4-8 Panthers
4-8 Falcons at 3-9 Chargers

 

[jmt57]

Best Red Zone Offenses, TD %

1. 75.6% -- Cardinals (2.6 RZ TD per game)
2. 75.5% -- Packers (2.8)
3. 75.0% -- Vikings (2.5)
4. 73.5% -- Titans (3.0)
5. 73.2% -- Seahawks (2.5)
6. 71.1% -- Buccaneers (2.7)
7. 70.0% -- Browns (2.3)
8. 67.3% -- Saints (2.9)
9. 66.7% -- 49ers (2.3)
10. 64.6% -- Rams (2.4)

Worst Red Zone Offenses, TD%

1. 42.9% -- Jets (1.0 RZ TD per game)
2. 48.5% -- Giants (1.3)
3. 50.0% -- Cowboys (1.6)
4. 50.0% -- Falcons (1.8)
5. 51.6% -- Broncos (1.3)
6. 52.3% -- Patriots (1.8)
7. 52.8% -- Bengals (1.6)
8. 55.0% -- Panthers (1.8)
9. 55.0% -- Ravens (1.8)
10. 57.1% -- Bears (1.7)
11. 57.5% -- Chiefs (2.2)

Two things jumped out to me. First, the only team not closely mixed with the other was the Jete - 5.6 percentage points worse than the number 31 team in the league. The other was that KC was as low as they were percentagewise (yet at the same time above average in total number of red zone touchdowns).


Surprisingly none of the seven best red zone defenses have a winning record. KC shows up again on the wrong side of the ledger, last in red zone defense despite their 11-1 record. The Pats rank 19th, tied with Tampa at 63.2% (and tied for 7th best, with 1.8 RZ TD per game).

Best Red Zone Defenses, TD%

1. 47.1% -- Washington (1.3 per game, also 1st)
2. 47.7% -- Broncos (1.8)
3. 51.2% -- Vikings (1.8)
4. 52.3% -- Cardinals (1.9)
5. 52.4% -- Bears (1.8)
6. 53.9% -- Giants (1.8)
7. 54.4% -- Jets (2.1)
8. 56.7% -- Steelers (1.4, 2nd)
9. 58.3% -- Dolphins (1.8)
10. 59.4% -- Forty Niners (1.6, 3rd)

Worst Red Zone Defenses, TD%

1. 75.8% -- Chiefs (2.1)
2. 72.3% -- Titans (2.9, 32nd)
3. 70.0% -- Falcons (2.3)
4. 68.8% -- Lions (2.8)
5. 68.0% -- Raiders (2.8)
6. 67.4% -- Seahawks (2.6)
7. 66.7% -- Packers (2.0)
8. 66.7% -- Saints (1.8)
9. 65.8% -- Colts (2.1)
10. 65.8% -- Eagles (2.1)

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