Ty Law shares what he thinks Patriots should do with No. 3 pick

[BTTA]

"You might find a quarterback in the 4th round."

In the last 25 years, only 8 out of 221 QB draft picks after the first round have secured their team's QB role for more than a couple years, and three of those guys are tottering (Geno Smith, Hurts, Purdy).

The others are Brady, Brees, Carr, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott.

Yes, and, the parallel problem is that picking one in the first round also has very low odds of success.
So you really need to believe in a guy to pick him, regardless of the draft position.
And with management in transition, who knows what they'll have in place by then?

 

[upstater1]

Yes, and, the parallel problem is that picking one in the first round also has very low odds of success.
So you really need to believe in a guy to pick him, regardless of the draft position.
And with management in transition, who knows what they'll have in place by then?

1st round is a 50/50 proposition. Infinitely higher than 2nd round and later

 

[Guts]

So with BB gone now it's more interesting to see which pick the new GM goes with

 

[BTTA]

1st round is a 50/50 proposition. Infinitely higher than 2nd round and later

Yes, much higher, although I'd say about 35%. And it doesn't seem to matter much where in the round the pick is made.

 

[upstater1]

Yes, much higher, although I'd say about 35%. And it doesn't seem to matter much where in the round the pick is made.

It's exactly 41% over the last 25 years.

 

[goheels22002]

Did you happen to watch Russell Wilson play at all this year? It is an extreme case of the stats not matching what happened on the field.

For a guy who moves around as much as Wilson at 5'11" - 210 lbs, he's had a very good career. There are a lot of miles on his tires at age 35 and the drop off over the last two years has been very obvious. 35 is still old for an NFL QB. Brady was a freak.

Back to the main issue of this thread, If they cannot get either of the top two guys, I'd advise them to trade out of three to somebody who really wants another player on the board for their #1 and a couple more picks in this year's draft.

Hopefully the new GM will focus on the weakest areas of the team on offense - the OL and receivers. There are four QBs who are free agents worth looking at - Mariota, Darnold, Locke, and Minshew.

With the right OL and a few upgrades, Darnold is the guy who is most interesting to me. He's got some NFL experience now, and has experience with the 49ers in getting rid of the ball on time. He's got the size to be durable and can get out of the pocket when needed.

 

[Joey007]

For a guy who moves around as much as Wilson at 5'11" - 210 lbs, he's had a very good career. There are a lot of miles on his tires at age 35 and the drop off over the last two years has been very obvious. 35 is still old for an NFL QB. Brady was a freak.

Back to the main issue of this thread, If they cannot get either of the top two guys, I'd advise them to trade out of three to somebody who really wants another player on the board for their #1 and a couple more picks in this year's draft.

Hopefully the new GM will focus on the weakest areas of the team on offense - the OL and receivers. There are four QBs who are free agents worth looking at - Mariota, Darnold, Locke, and Minshew.

With the right OL and a few upgrades, Darnold is the guy who is most interesting to me. He's got some NFL experience now, and has experience with the 49ers in getting rid of the ball on time. He's got the size to be durable and can get out of the pocket when needed.

The two in bold... not in a million years.

If you are not in position to land a QB with the 3rd pick and have to look into round 2, then I could listen to Minshew as a viable guy for sure.

 

[BTTA]

It's exactly 41% over the last 25 years.

Ok, although there's no objective measure of that, just subjective interpretations of the data.

 

[upstater1]

Ok, although there's no objective measure of that, just subjective interpretations of the data.

??

I literally counted the number of QBs who had the starting position with their teams over a few years versus the ones who busted and were let go.

 

[BTTA]

??

I literally counted the number of QBs who had the starting position with their teams over a few years versus the ones who busted and were let go.

That's one standard. The one discussed here is whether the guy can lead to a championship. Or be a consistent winner. Or be better than a vet that could be traded for. Lots of different interests.

 

[upstater1]

That's one standard. The one discussed here is whether the guy can lead to a championship. Or be a consistent winner. Or be better than a vet that could be traded for. Lots of different interests.

I was honestly just looking for franchise QBs. If you're drafted and stick with your team to a second contract, you're a franchise QB. You could be Alex Smith or Carr or one of those guys. Flacco. All these guys were hits even if they never made the Pro Bowl.

Plus, half the QBs that made the Super Bowl were never really consistent or even great: Hasselbeck, Flacco, Chandler, Garoppolo, Grossman, DelHomme, Collins, Dilfer, O'Donnell, or heck, should I mention Kaepernick and Foles?

You just need someone competent back there, at the very least.

In my view, a guy like Fields could QB a team well for 10 years and even win, without once ever making the Super Bowl

 

[Aussie Patriot]

Trading fields is what im hearing since week 18 concluded. Up until then i was hearing it pretty mixed between that and picking mhj but lately a few bears fans i know and mocks are thinking they take caleb and trade fields.

Yes if they trade Fields then that certainly would be the way to go. With all the coaching moves and the draft it's certainly going to be an interesting off season.