Your points are valid, and I'm sure Chism supporters understand the odds, I know I certainly do.
I have said at every turn, IF Chism stands out in camp and makes noticeable plays in pre-season. Nothing has changed, that's how I feel.
Wether those plays are on special teams, or offense, he needs to standout, I've said that multiple times.
Remember the BB Wally Pipp comment? That came on an Edleman return during the pre-season. He made a noticeable play and made the team, and eventually carved out a WR role. If I were to guess, Jules return was probably against future UPS drivers, Phys Ed teachers, maybe even Subway sandwich artists.
Chism can most certainly do the same, he's starting out as a far more accomplished WR than Jules was coming out of college as an option QB.
So you think he can make the PS no problem, and if he has a quiet pre-season that's probably the case. But if he makes some noticeable plays, like Jule's punt return in 2009 pre-season, I don't think we can sneak him through waivers.