Top 16 Hasn't Changed Much In Months

[mgteich]

The ordering has changed a bit, but the players seem to be the same. We might even call them the "blues" as another poster did.

TOP SIXTEEN
QB Gabbert, Newton
RB
WR Green, Jones
OT Smith (some have him as a RT, someone will draft him as the premier LT that he is)
DL/LB Miller, Dareus, Watt, Jordan, Fairley, Kerrigan, A. Smith, Quinn, Bowers
DB Peterson, Amukamara

THOSE WITH BAGGAGE WHO COULD DROP
Newton, Quinn, Bowers

THOSE WHO COULD BREAK THE TOP 16
Mallet, Locker

SOME CONCLUSIONS
1) With the question marks with others, Watt now seems to be a top 10 pick.
2) DAL is likely to trade down from 9 if Amukamara isn't there.
3) MIN is likely to trade down if they don't see a QB they want at 12.
4) I'm sure HOU and DET will be entertaining offers.
5) DEN would like to blackmail CINCI into trading up for a quarterback.
6) We seem less likely to get a stud at 17 than was the case a couple of months ago.
7) There may be more teams wanting to move down than up. If we want to move up for a stud, reasonable opportunities will be there. Otherwise, we will join those wanting to move down.

 

[supafly]

I agree with many of these statements. You are certainly correct about the top 16 board, and I believe it will likely remain this way with the exception of maybe 1-2 players at the most. Maybe a dropper and a climber, that's often the pattern in the last month--barring no major drug failures, injuries of course.

I would agree that Watt will likely go higher than we first thought, it's hard to project whether or not it'll be inside the top 10, but I'd certainly think it'll be inside the first 12-15 at the worst. We may still have a good chance at having a crack at Cameron Jordan et al. Whether or not NE wants him is the golden question.

DAL is interesting, they may target a DB or an OL, as there are needs for both. They may even succumb to the Jerry Jones way of thinking and go with a flashier player on either side of the ball. I do not agree, but I have even seen some mocks with Watt or another highly ranked defensive player going to them with the 9th pick. Their needs are well documented and pretty obvious to most, but with Jerry one can never know. I'm guessing DB or OL.

I certainly agree that Mallett or Locker both have the ability to crack the top 16, but that will obviously end up being decided by the QB run, and whether or not some teams who seem undecided (CIN, MIN, etc) draft a QB. I believe that 4 will go in round 1 total.

 

[Metaphors]

THOSE WHO COULD BREAK THE TOP 16
Mallet, Locker

Depending on where T.Smith goes, there could be teams looking at Solder and Castonzo in the top 16.

Ingram has to be a strong consideration for the Fins...which would also compel teams that want him to trade into the top 16.

Wilkerson and Taylor may also get looks from teams looking to get bigger/stronger on the DL.

Brandon Harris and Jimmy Smith are darkhorses since they likely represent the boundary on the "athletically ready from day 1" CBs.

Given the above, I see Dallas being the pivot point in the first round. Conventional wisdom say Amukamara which could cause Houston and Minnesota to reach. They are said to really like T.Smith which could cause an early run on OT.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I also expect the Rams to seriously consider Corey Liuget if Jones is gone - although Aldon Smith may appeal to them too.

Bottom line, there is no chance that will be the top 16. It just never works out like that.

 

[mcsully]

Would the backage you are referring to with Quinn be his tumor or being suspended?

I'm more worried about his turmor then being suspended.. He's a young kid who did something stupid.. Of course I don't get the chance to interview him but if everything checks out, I would look past that


Tell you what, if Kerrigan is sitting there at 14 (or around that) I'd be more than happy to move up to get him.. Perdue has a long history of solid players who are smart upstairs.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Would the backage you are referring to with Quinn be his tumor or being suspended?

I'm more worried about his turmor then being suspended.. He's a young kid who did something stupid.. Of course I don't get the chance to interview him but if everything checks out, I would look past that


Tell you what, if Kerrigan is sitting there at 14 (or around that) I'd be more than happy to move up to get him.. Perdue has a long history of solid players who are smart upstairs.

Not many agree about Quinn being a good fit here. I am not one of them. The only 3 players I would trade up for are Dareus,Miller and Quinn. He may be the best player in this draft when it is all said and done.

I love Kerrigan or A Smith at 17 as well as Jordan and Watt. You would figure one of them should get to 17 with the assorted talent.

 

[supafly]

Not many agree about Quinn being a good fit here. I am not one of them. The only 3 players I would trade up for are Dareus,Miller and Quinn. He may be the best player in this draft when it is all said and done.

I love Kerrigan or A Smith at 17 as well as Jordan and Watt. You would figure one of them should get to 17 with the assorted talent.

A lot are projecting both A.Smith and Kerrigan to be very good fits in the 4-3, but not necessarily the 3-4. How do you feel about their fits personally?

 

[furley]

I view it a little differently. These are the names that I'm reading about as legitimate first rounders or players who can "sneak" into the first round based on a team's need.


Quarterbacks - Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton

Running backs - N/A

Wide Receivers - AJ Green and Julio Jones

Tight Ends - N/A

Offensive Linemen - Tyron Smith, Anthony Castonzo, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, Mike Pouncey and Derek Sherrod

Defensive Linemen - Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, Phil Taylor, Corey Liuget, Nick Fairley, Cameron Jordan, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers

Linebackers - Von Miller

Defensive Backs - Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara and Jimmy Smith


Risers/sleepers - Brooks Reed, Randall Cobb, Christian Ballard and Leonard Hankerson

Sliders (second rounders?) - Mark Ingram, Torrey Smith, Aldon Smith, Akeem Ayers, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Justin Houston, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker

 

[supafly]

I view it a little differently. These are the names that I'm reading about as legitimate first rounders or players who can "sneak" into the first round based on a team's need.


Quarterbacks - Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton

Running backs - N/A

Wide Receivers - AJ Green and Julio Jones

Tight Ends - N/A

Offensive Linemen - Tyron Smith, Anthony Castonzo, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi, Mike Pouncey and Derek Sherrod

Defensive Linemen - Marcell Dareus, Robert Quinn, JJ Watt, Ryan Kerrigan, Phil Taylor, Corey Liuget, Nick Fairley, Cameron Jordan, Muhammad Wilkerson and Da'Quan Bowers

Linebackers - Von Miller

Defensive Backs - Patrick Peterson, Prince Amukamara and Jimmy Smith


Risers/sleepers - Brooks Reed, Randall Cobb, Christian Ballard and Leonard Hankerson

Sliders (second rounders?) - Mark Ingram, Torrey Smith, Aldon Smith, Akeem Ayers, Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Justin Houston, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker

Respectfully disagree on some of your 'sliders/2nd rders.'

Ingram should go in the first half of the first round, especially considering that he is THE premiere RB of the draft. Miami has been linked to him a lot, and are losing both Williams and Brown. They pick at 15.

Aldon Smith should also go in the first half of the first round--no doubt. I agree that he may slide a little, but not past the teens.

One of either Locker or Mallett will surely go in the first round, as there are a lot of teams that need a QB, and there is no free agency.

 

[Don Kipines]

I agree with this assessment of the top tier of players. Although there has been a lot of movement within the top 10 (seemingly), there haven't been any of those late-riser types busting into the top 10 that we often get at this time of year.

I actually look at it in a different way -- when I looked closely at it it looks more like a top-13 than a top 16. I broke it down into four groups, and no matter how often you look at the list of names, you pretty much always get the same list of guys who will be gone by the time the Patriots pick.

The first thing we know is that there are four "safe" prospects who are virtually guaranteed to go top-10. These are guys who could go to any team at any spot in the draft, as "best player available" types:

Peterson
Green
Miller
Dareus

Those guys are definitely going in the top 10. They will be gone, without any question, when the Patriots pick.

The next category is quarterback. Gabbert and Newton will be gone for sure sometime in the top 15-16. They may not deserve to go that high -- either of them -- but they will. So that's six guys who are gone for sure. In my mind, after that, there are four more "safe" picks, i.e. guys who tested well, had great production, don't have position-fit questions, are not injured and have no character issues. They are:

Jordan
Watt
Amukamara
Jones (the foot issue isn't serious)

It's pretty hard to imagine any of those guys reaching pick #17, with the only caveat being that Jordan and Watt are more naturally 3-4 players and there are a few teams above the Pats who probably would hesitate at least a little before picking them (particularly Detroit and St. Louis for that reason).

After that there are three guys with top-10 talent who might drop because of injury/character questions:

Bowers
Fairley
Quinn

I could imagine any of those guys dropping past 17, although it's not likely. But what distinguishes that group of 13 (Peterson, Miller, Dareus, Green, Newton, Gabbert, Jones, Watt, Jordan, Amukamara, Fairley, Quinn, Bowers) is that you really can't imagine any of them dropping below 20.

You can't say that about Tyron Smith, Aldon Smith, or Ryan Kerrigan. Tyron Smith could fall because some teams might not have him as the top tackle (or even the second-best). You could easily imagine Castonzo going to Detroit, and even guys like Carimi and Solder going ahead of Smith. As for Aldon Smith and Kerrigan, there are 3-4 teams that might be nervous about the fit (and prefer Ayers or Houston) and 4-3 teams that might like Adrian Clayborn better. I could definitely see either the Giants or Tampa going for Clayborn first -- Jacksonville too.

 

[Patriot Missile]

A lot are projecting both A.Smith and Kerrigan to be very good fits in the 4-3, but not necessarily the 3-4. How do you feel about their fits personally?

Kerrigan was asked to do quite a bit in college. Some may call him stiff but I'm not about to argue with his production. He got it done time and time again and after a bunch of going back and forth with this guy I come away with the same conclusion. I like players like him and how he carries himself on and off the field. I'm impressed with Purdue and the way they groom their athletes to be good people. They have a long list of athletes former and present that just seem to stay out of trouble and go about their jobs and daily lives and that says a ton to me about the school,area and their coaches over the years.

In some ways football wise he reminds me a lot of Watt with the motor and the never give up attitude. He may not have the size to be a 34 DE like Watt and may have the ideal size to play 43 LB. But something about the kid screams succeed to me no matter what formation he is in.

Aldon Smith we may be able to get at 33 due to the OT surge that is sure to come somewhere in the first round. High risk high reward type of player. Explosive, great hands guy who took over games at times last year. Been rumored he takes plays off when the play isn't about him. A lot of players do that so it's not a huge knock. However like Kerrigan and coverage, Aldon will also be a risk here as well. Conversions always are. The one thing going for them is they are both high motor and have ideal height and weight measurement right off the bat to play LB in a Belichick system.

Time will tell. I have a feeling they will be better coverage guys then say Watt or Jordan who some say will make perfect elephants. Sorry to dissapoint but McGinnist is so rare that our chances of drafting another one is very slim to say the least. I would suggest draft those two as defensive end players first and let them evolve to other roles if they can. Don't get the hopes up too high.