Theory on Belichick's drafting philosophy

[lurker1965]

I could be wrong. I am not BB but...

I think he values the first round, obviously. Since we often have some good UDFAs that make the team and stuff, I have two theories on his "not accepted" picks often as high as the second round, but some are in the third.

1)He sees later picks as an opportunity to "troll" media (and hence fans).
2)He figures "screw it" and takes guys that he thinks could be great 1% of the time.

Read my reply.

 

[RayClay]

He uses the draft as one way to stock his team, there are others.Top 15-20 picks, you get guys that would cost a fortune in free agency, but after that he goes after guys he wants for his scheme and attempts to get them where he thinks he needs to. it's not complicated.

It's idiotic to think, as seriously as he takes winning, that he would waste high picks to troll somebody.

If you can think of a stronger word than idiotic, that would be appropriate IMO.

 

[BobDigital]

I think BB values the top 20-40 picks (depending on the year in question) a lot. Sometimes they only get a shot at one or two of those guys. Sometimes none fall to them in the first.

After those picks though (for most positions) he does not think much of the remaining guys in comparison. To put it another way in BB's mind the crap shoot starts a lot earlier then it does for many of us.

Come pick 64 he (assuming none of his top ranked players are there) goes purely with scheme fits or versitle guys for most positions.

There are a few exceptions though. Gs and RBs he tends to think he can cash in on later and get serviceable guys with 3rd and 4th round picks generally. This is probably why we see him pass on the "top guards" and "reach" in the higher rounds.

His thinking might be something like "I know i can get a guard in the 4th so why not use pick 2 or 3 to take who i think is the best shot at safety or CB or LB is" or whatever position

 

[RayClay]

I think BB values the top 20-40 picks (depending on the year in question) a lot. Sometimes they only get a shot at one or two of those guys. Sometimes none fall to them in the first.

After those picks though (for most positions) he does not think much of the remaining guys in comparison. To put it another way in BB's mind the crap shoot starts a lot earlier then it does for many of us.

Come pick 64 he or assuming none of his top ranked players are there he goes purely with scheme fits or versitle guys for most positions.

There are a few exceptions though. Gs and RBs he tends to think he can cash in on later and get serviceable guys with 3rd and 4th round picks generally. This is probably why we see him pass on the "top guards" and "reach" in the higher rounds.

His thinking might be something like "I know i can get a guard in the 4th so why not use pick 2 or 3 to take who i think is the best shot at safety or CB or LB is" or whatever position

He hit it big at 32 this year, but i think the crapshoot usually starts earlier, like 20-25.

I really think there are one or two teams, or defenses, that go after similar players and he's afraid they'll spend a low 3rd, so he spends the low second, because the guy fits something he's trying to do (hybrid lb/S]. If he has a bunch of similar players, or needs players available in low rounds (guards) he'll see who falls. He's not spending a high pick on a pass rusher, but he'll take a couple shots in a strong class.

Anyway, that's what i think. When I see another big guy headed to the suit rack in the thrift store, I'm grabbing stuff quick. I don't care that the rest of the store is a different size.

 

[hwc]

Here's my theory: The only people who are confused by Belichick's draft picks are people who pay attention to media draft gurus leading up to the draft.

What Mel Kiper thinks is simply irrelevant to the NE Patriots draft.

 

[Patstopia]

My theory is BB doesn't give a crap about anyone's opinion except the people he relies on. The rest of us are sound and fury, signifying nothing!

 

[NormZauchin]

Who you pick and where you pick them should be a combination of five factors:

1. their talent for playing football
2. the needs of the team
3. their ability to fit into your scheme
4. where you place them on your board
5. where other teams place them on their boards

Theoretically, if someone is high on factors one, two, and three and thus high on factor four, but is low on factor five, you can wait till a later round to draft him.

From Belichick's drafting strategy over the years, I don't think he assigns any value to factor five. It may be that he feels that he cannot estimate the value other teams place on the player.

 

[nabwong]

There is no single reason for drafting a player. It is a combination of

1. Scheme going forward
2. Best player available
3. Value
4. Coach ability
5. Need

Since no one but BB and his staff know what the scheme is gonna be, there is no way to determine the value of the player. The scheme changes all the time.

I think firstly, BB has a vision and he gets the players who he thinks can serve the role first. McCourty, Hightower etc

Then he will gamble on someone like Edelman whom he has no idea of his role but is just a damn good football player. Also Collins, Jones etc

 

[JayNM]

I think BB puts more value than any other coach in Leadership and Special-Teams Value. Intangible and Smarts are also a priority here, though other team may put as much value in those areas as the Pats.

 

[mgteich]

No one is suggesting that Belichick draft any player but those on the top of his board (adjusted as Belichick wishes).

That does NOT mean that what other think is irrelevant.

What is Belichick were 100% sure that he could get Richards and Grissom in the 4th or later. Would/should this have changed who he drafted at 64 and 97?

 

[DarrylS]

This team has won 4 Superbowls since 2001, so I hardly think that BB drafts certain players to troll the media and fans.. that makes no sense.

Have been saying this for a long time there are no longitudinal studies in the NFL of actual winners and losers in the draft.. for every hit, there is a miss.. it the big picture is looked at and the Patriots Myopia Glasses are taken off it is obvious every team is in the same situation..

The average pick in the first round for the Pats, during this period, is something like #25... and in the second round that translates into pick #50.. so the Pats POV is completely different than the "lesser teams"...

Somehow despite the belief that this is about trolling, we consistently are viewed as one of the best franchises in the NFL...

 

[RayClay]

No one is suggesting that Belichick draft any player but those on the top of his board (adjusted as Belichick wishes).

That does NOT mean that what other think is irrelevant.

What is Belichick were 100% sure that he could get Richards and Grissom in the 4th or later. Would/should this have changed who he drafted at 64 and 97?

Of course.

Also, if Brady was absolutely sure who'd win the Kentucky Derby, that would change a lot.

 

[Clonamery]

My theory is BB doesn't give a crap about anyone's opinion except the people he relies on. The rest of us are sound and fury, signifying nothing!

Yeah, what Billy Faulkner thinks.....

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I don't think BB puts any thought into where other teams have a player rated. If I were the coach I wouldn't. It's completely unknowable. What are you going to do, have a Director of Guessing Where Other Teams Rate Players? It seems like a tremendous waste of time. Time that can be used to scout.

 

[chasa]

BB sees these kids as raw metal, BB is just out at a market and hes picking out lumps of metals and hes saying to himself, I bet this would look really nice after i work it a bit.

Sometimes he creates works of art, and sometimes they don't work out.

BB isn't trolling anyone, he has a particular taste, and that taste has brought us 4 superbowl, 6 conference titles and more AFC titles then i have fingers.

 

[Froob]

Gotta love how everyone and their mom has BB figured out.

 

[livinginthe past]

Practice Squad!!!11111!111

 

[neuronet]

1)He sees later picks as an opportunity to "troll" media (and hence fans).

Yeah, that would definitely explain his success.

Offseason threads...gotta love 'em.

 

[Tony2046]

Here is the funny thing about BB's drafting record. It is incredibly successful when compared to other teams. Occasionally I hear BB is a great coach but not a great GM but he is actually a great GM. Here is an article written a few years ago but the point still applies. It ranks the Patriots as the most successful team in the draft from 2001-2011. http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/decade-the-making-the-ultimate-nfl-draft-grades/2419/

"Summary: The Patriots got at least one impact player in each of their 10 drafts from 2001-2010, and maybe the biggest tribute to their ability to identify top talent is that all 10 of their No. 1 picks were still playing in the league last year along with 11 of their 14 No. 2s. This bodes well for 2011 draftees Nate Solder, Ras-I Dowling and Shane Vereen."

Since then the Pats have drafted Chandler Jones, Hightower, Collins, Logan Ryan, Dobson, Easley, Stork and Garoppolo.

Do they miss on some picks? Yes.
Are they one of the best drafting teams in the league? Yes
Does Mel Kiper hate when BB blows up his Mock drafts? hahaha

 

[Rob0729]

Belichick just doesn't use the scouting service that the media and a lot of the NFL teams use. Therefore his big board is going to look very different than Mel Kiper's or most teams. Plain and simple.