The Uncle Heatster 3-Round Mock, version 2

[dryheat44]

Awful lot o' tradin' goin' on heah. Don't know why you have the Pats trading up to get Addai when none of the teams you've listed between 36 and 52 had RB needs? No complaint on Lawson but I'd rather see a WR or OL at 3rd (#86). Great read. Maybe we should hold off til next yr for Ny'Quell.

Thanks for the comments, folks. I do appreciate them, and will try to get one more out before the draft. I don't think the famous 7th round mock will get done though.

jcx...the main thing to keep in mind about trading is that it's not whether the teams you're leapfrogging have a need, it's about one of those teams without an urgent need to draft somebody willing to trade it's pick to someone who does. Ty Warren is the best recent example. The Pats traded up one spot with Chicago to draft him, even though there was no way Chicago would take Warren. Warren was the last guy remaining in Belichick's DT group before a significant drop-off, and was leery of another team trading into Chicago's slot to take him.

I keep that in mind quite a bit when doing my mocks, such as the Chad Jackson scenario.

 

[dryheat44]

I agree that us or some other team will take Lewis somewhere in Day 1 due to his production alone, but there's no way he goes Round 1 anymore. The fact you have a team trading up for him makes it borderline absurd. I like the Addai pick though; don't know too much about Dobbins, maybe you could learn me a bit on him?

As someone mentions above, Dobbins right now, and possibly always, is a two-down and short yardage player. I don't think that precludes him from being drafted on the first day. From my limited viewings, he seems to be a classic read the play, beat or shed the block, make the tackle linebacker in the Ted Johnson mold, relying more on recognition and strength than athleticism. He seems to have a greater leadership capacity, like maybe John Lynch.

I'd love to ask Ellis Hobbs about him.

 

[Handel]

2 New Orleans - Quarterbacking issue solved, at least for the short term, I look for them to draft Mario Williams DL North Carolina St

--- But they already have two good DEs (Charles Grant and Will Smith)


7 Oakland - It's been so long since Art Shell coached, I forget what his offense looks like. Vernon Davis would certainly be tempting here, especially since there QB is going to be someone like Aaron Brooks. Or possibly Vince Young, whom if he doesn't go here can tumble a long way. I think defense will ultimately win out. Haloti Ngata DT Oregon

---- With the signing of Aaron Brooks, I don't think they will pick a QB. DT seems indeed a greater need.

10 Arizona - Needs all over the defensive side. The guy who can help them the most is probably Tamba Hali DE Penn St

--- Hali at 10 is a reach methinks.

11 St. Louis - You just know that new HC Scott Linehan is going for a new offensive toy. Ike Bruce is aging, and I'm not sure Kevin Curtis can be a number 2 guy. But a WR would be a reach here. It's hard to believe that in this day and age Brandon Manamaleuna passes as a starting tight end. Leonard Pope TE Georgia

---- Ditto

15 San Francisco (from Atlanta via Denver) - Wherever he ends up playing, I'll bet the 49ers have a hole there. Jimmy Williams RB Virginia Tech

--- I've heard that Williams stock is declining and that Tye Hill would be the first CB taken.

16 Miami - Offensive line looks to be the primary need, but I don't see the value here. Bunkley is a possibility. Or a BPA approach. Or depth in the secondary. Broderick Bunkley DL Florida St.

--- Dolphins fans (from what I read on NFL draft countdown forum) prefer a DE/OLB like Manny Lawson.

19 San Diego - Aside from Wide Receiver, Corner seems to be their greatest need. Ashton Youboty CB Ohio St

--- Tye Hill should be here instead of Youboty.

24 New England (from Cincinnati) -They could probably trade down again, but I think the Pats make this pick. And to me, it comes down to who's going to help the most in 2006. Probably an OLB, or CB. I think the best choice here is Manny Lawson DE North Carolina St Caveat: If the Pats sign Arrington, which with my luck they'll do as soon as I post this, this pick would be Williams (back at 21) or Cromartie.

--- Lawson would be a great pick indeed.


28 Jacksonville - Two things to keep in mind here: CB Brian Williams is the underrated FA signing of the offseason, and RB Fred Taylor can't be counted on. The pick is Lawrence Maroney RB Minnesota

--- Don't they have Greg Jones too?

32 Pittsburgh - Thus far the Champs have lost Randle-El, Kimo, and Hope to free agency, but also Bettis to retirement and Staley to one or more of age/ineffectiveness/indifference. LenDale White RB USC makes too much sense

--- If he falls there, the Steelers will be very happy

Our main needs are (in no particular order)

CB, WR, RB, LB

We already have a young prospect in Hobbs at CB. I don't think BB will pick another one in 1st round since he prefer veteran at this position.

There is no value for a WR at 21.

So I really think they will either go for the spots where we are old (RB and LB).

 

[dryheat44]

That's great work, heat.

I think Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Detroit make out the best.

I dont buy Houston trading up that high for WR Holmes. The talent gap between Holmes and Stovall is really not all that impressive.

I like your Pats draft class a lot, but I dont see any need to trade up for a RB. Addai is a good choice, but we've got enough talent under contract at the position.

Thank you.

I couldn't agree less in re: Holmes vs. Stovall. To me, Stovall is the most overrated WR in this draft. I really think he's borderline first day talent.

What, in your opinion, is the talent we have at RB? We have an aging Corey Dillon with nobody, except possibly Earl Charles to replace him. Kevin Faulk isn't an every-down back. Patrick Pass might be, but he hasn't been used there yet, and isn't getting any younger. Heath Evans is a fringe roster guy on his third or fourth team. He had six great quarters for us when the opposition was likely ignoring the running game.

I think the time is now to draft a running back, get him under contract for four or five years, and enjoy.

 

[Boston Tim]

Lendale White available at 32.
Addai available at 36.

Passing on White at 32 but taking Addai at 36 would make me cry as a Pats fan. Why wouldn't the Pats pay that extra amount to get White at just 4 positions higher? The money is more, but they also get the extra year. And the player value is significantly higher.

 

[dryheat44]

Lendale White available at 32.
Addai available at 36.

Passing on White at 32 but taking Addai at 36 would make me cry as a Pats fan. Why wouldn't the Pats pay that extra amount to get White at just 4 positions higher? The money is more, but they also get the extra year. And the player value is significantly higher.

If they were both sitting there at 36, I'd still take Addai. He seems to fit the BB model better with his quick cutting and ability out of the backfield. I acknowledge that I'm most likely in a small minority, though.

Or, if you prefer the Value Grouping theory, BB might have those backs grouped together, and once the penultimate one is off the board, moves up to get the ultimate.

Would you prefer we draft White at 21 or after a slight trade down, or make a big move up with our second pick?

 

[big mike]

Thank you.

I couldn't agree less in re: Holmes vs. Stovall. To me, Stovall is the most overrated WR in this draft. I really think he's borderline first day talent.

I agree, and am always surprised at how many people think we should take Stovall in round 2. Round 3 *maybe*.

 

[patpatriot]

I seem to remember

..a poster who was an Iowa State fan that described Dobbins as a bigger Hobbs. That's good stuff. I'd like to have the guy on the Pats but my only question is where is he properly slotted? What's the difference between our 2nd third rounder and our 1st fourth rounder? about say 20 or so slots? Worth the risk? I don't know.

 

[shirtsleeve]

Heat
Incredible job, and obviously a lot of time and effort expended. Thank you.

You had me sold (and really beaming, if were to come true) right through the Pats first round pick. But I am of the value grouping philosophy. So, depending on FA aquisitions between now and draft day, I see the groups being definitely at LB and DB (with safety definitely in the mix), and probably at RB and OL (with TE possibly in the mix, it all depends on what happens in the next month). With the number of picks the Pats have, I see a very active trading day coming. But the value grouping got absolutely demo'd in the second and third round. I hope the Pats trade down with Houston the way you have Cleveland doing it, of course with some later round compensation. Then we clean up on all value groups in rds 2 and 3. That would make me smile.

 

[jczxohn1]

Thanks for the comments, folks. I do appreciate them, and will try to get one more out before the draft. I don't think the famous 7th round mock will get done though.

jcx...the main thing to keep in mind about trading is that it's not whether the teams you're leapfrogging have a need, it's about one of those teams without an urgent need to draft somebody willing to trade it's pick to someone who does. Ty Warren is the best recent example. The Pats traded up one spot with Chicago to draft him, even though there was no way Chicago would take Warren. Warren was the last guy remaining in Belichick's DT group before a significant drop-off, and was leery of another team trading into Chicago's slot to take him.

I keep that in mind quite a bit when doing my mocks, such as the Chad Jackson scenario.

Bump
As Bobby Bonds said, "It's AllClear now".

 

[LetsGoPats36]

If we traded up that much and took Addai I might kill somebody.

Lawson is a great pick though.