The Problem Over 2020-2023 Has Been The Lack Production By Receivers?

[Ivan]

Really?

Receptions of the top 4 receivers by year has been 175, 160, 187, and 164.

The top 3 have given us 155, 139, 175, and 133.
======================
Two of the season were winning seasons; 12-4 and 10-7, two were losing seasons: 8-9 and 7-9-1.

==================
For 25 years, posters have said that the key to success is having a top 10 receiver, one of the best in the league. Over that time, we have had Welker, Moss and Edelman.

I suggest that the answer to success is not at the WR position. Rather this team is about strong lines, top 10 defenses, and top 10 ST's.
====================
We talk about lack of WR production. I would remind folks that even having WR's average THREE receptions a game is relatively rare. We had 2 in 2022, 3 in 2021, 2 in 2020, and 1 in 2019.

Receptions by the number 3 receiver has been 26, 33, 37 and 31.
Folks want to be sure that we have a quality #5. Our #4 has very few receptions: 20, 21, 12 and 31, usually fewer than TWO catches per game, hardly key. Parker is the only #4 to have over two catches per game.
================
BOTTOM LINE
Our number one this year is likely to have as many receptions as last year.
Our #2 will also be likely to have the same as the #2
Parker is on schedule to reach the same total as he had last year (as #3 or #4)

Sure, we could use add a top 10 receiver. That is the case for almost every team. What we need much more is better coaching of the assets that we have, that we draft and that we acquire. We have Bourne and Douglas. A team needs three plus backups in case of injury. It is NOT too much to expect that one of our remaining FIVE can step up the plate.

Manute Bol couldn’t have reached the throws Cam Newton made.

 

[Triumph]

Purdy has come down to earth the past 2 games.. the film is out on him.. he was a 6th rounder for a reason.. not every QB.. can be picked in the 6th round and become the GOAT. When you have deebo, McCaffrey and ayuk.. any QB would look pretty good. The NFL is about talent... be it QB or WR..

Yeah, look how great DHop is doing these days in the 25th ranked offense on a 2 - 5 team. Tannyhill has 2 TDs to his name.

Im not so sure that Purdy is done at all. The Browns defense is legit. Turnovers killed the 49ers vs the Vikings.

 

[Ivan]

We have been chasing a real number one receiver for a while now and failing miserably. I posted this a few weeks back:

I think a big part of the reason why the offense is so bad is mainly because Bill has whiffed so many times trying to get a number one receiving option since Brady’s last year and the N’Keal Harry failure. Bill has burned:

A first round pick on N’Keal Harry
A second round pick in a trade for Sanu
$9 million on a single game for Antonio Brown
Two third round picks on Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene
$56 million guaranteed on Jonnu and Hunter Henry
And finally a second round pick on Tyquan

Those 8 guys produced a whopping 257 catches, 2990 yards, and 23 receiving TDs since 2019.

That's a first, two seconds, two thirds, $65 million in free agent contracts to get 51 less catches, 2042 less yards, and 14 less TDs than just AJ Brown alone.

Just painful.

I don’t think you have to have #1, but if you don’t you need 3 really good #2’s, which is actually a bigger problem for most secondaries. K.C. Won a Lombardi last season without a #1, and the Patriots did it against Seattle, but lost to the Giants with the best WR I have ever seen.*

Randy Moss is the best WR I have seen. Jerry Rice gets to call himself the GOAT because his production deserves that. But as a weapon Moss was the most dangerous, and the most difficult to defend.

 

[TheRainMaker]

WR is a high profile skill position that is a very visible part of the roster. It doesn't matter how good your WR corpse is if the OL doesn't give the QB time to throw or if the defense gives up too many points to keep up. You have a point that WR has not been as much of a point of focus under BB's roster construction as many other teams and has been a weakness for the years you highlight. There were also a number of years during the Brady dry period where the offense was great and the defense was the reason the team lost in the playoffs. The statement about 10 titles ignores the fact that other positions would have been impacted by diverting more resources to WR. It is not that simple.

As I mentioned prior, the Pats historically have had less major needs than most teams in the NFL. The WR position has mostly been a question mark throughout Tom's career, but neglected. I'm not following how investing in the WR position would've impacted other areas of the team? It wouldn't cost them anything if Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price and finally N'Keal Harry became stud WR's until their rookie deals were up. The Pats hit on both Branch and Givens and them for 3-4 years on the cheap. After that, they only hit on Edelman which took him 4-5 years to get real returns on him. That's really bad.

Do we win 3 Superbowls without Gronkowski/Edelman? Does Brady throw 50 TDs without moss?

Brady went from 25 yds in 2019 to 40 in 2020. Even brady was effected by receiving talent

Top receiving talent is important. It changes how defenses defend. Just look at how the Patriots defended Tyreek hill. Left everyone else open.

Without the drafting of Gronk, they are stuck at 3 titles. Gronk was the catalyst to their offense as Richard Seymour was to the defense. Bill and Tom would've parted ways even sooner as the rumor was Bill wanted to get rid of Tom after the 2013 season.

Purdy has come down to earth the past 2 games.. the film is out on him.. he was a 6th rounder for a reason.. not every QB.. can be picked in the 6th round and become the GOAT. When you have deebo, McCaffrey and ayuk.. any QB would look pretty good. The NFL is about talent... be it QB or WR..

I see Purdy's major weakness is throwing to the outside. With the loss of Deebo, teams have been forcing stuff outside which Purdy is struggling badly with.

 

[Ivan]

We have been chasing a real number one receiver for a while now and failing miserably. I posted this a few weeks back:

I think a big part of the reason why the offense is so bad is mainly because Bill has whiffed so many times trying to get a number one receiving option since Brady’s last year and the N’Keal Harry failure. Bill has burned:

A first round pick on N’Keal Harry
A second round pick in a trade for Sanu
$9 million on a single game for Antonio Brown
Two third round picks on Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene
$56 million guaranteed on Jonnu and Hunter Henry
And finally a second round pick on Tyquan

Those 8 guys produced a whopping 257 catches, 2990 yards, and 23 receiving TDs since 2019.

That's a first, two seconds, two thirds, $65 million in free agent contracts to get 51 less catches, 2042 less yards, and 14 less TDs than just AJ Brown alone.

Just painful.

If the Patriots have the #1 pick in the 2024 Draft I’m taking a QB over Marvin Harrison’s kid. And I would most likely take McCarthy.

 

[mgteich]

I don’t think you have to have #1, but if you don’t you need 3 really good #2’s, which is actually a bigger problem for most secondaries. K.C. Won a Lombardi last season without a #1, and the Patriots did it against Seattle, but lost to the Giants with the best WR I have ever seen.*

Randy Moss is the best WR I have seen. Jerry Rice gets to call himself the GOAT because his production deserves that. But as a weapon Moss was the most dangerous, and the most difficult to defend.

Bourne and Douglas could be really good #2's.

 

[Pats2000]

Really?

Receptions of the top 4 receivers by year has been 175, 160, 187, and 164.

The top 3 have given us 155, 139, 175, and 133.
======================
Two of the season were winning seasons; 12-4 and 10-7, two were losing seasons: 8-9 and 7-9-1.

==================
For 25 years, posters have said that the key to success is having a top 10 receiver, one of the best in the league. Over that time, we have had Welker, Moss and Edelman.

I suggest that the answer to success is not at the WR position. Rather this team is about strong lines, top 10 defenses, and top 10 ST's.
====================
We talk about lack of WR production. I would remind folks that even having WR's average THREE receptions a game is relatively rare. We had 2 in 2022, 3 in 2021, 2 in 2020, and 1 in 2019.

Receptions by the number 3 receiver has been 26, 33, 37 and 31.
Folks want to be sure that we have a quality #5. Our #4 has very few receptions: 20, 21, 12 and 31, usually fewer than TWO catches per game, hardly key. Parker is the only #4 to have over two catches per game.
================
BOTTOM LINE
Our number one this year is likely to have as many receptions as last year.
Our #2 will also be likely to have the same as the #2
Parker is on schedule to reach the same total as he had last year (as #3 or #4)

Sure, we could use add a top 10 receiver. That is the case for almost every team. What we need much more is better coaching of the assets that we have, that we draft and that we acquire. We have Bourne and Douglas. A team needs three plus backups in case of injury. It is NOT too much to expect that one of our remaining FIVE can step up the plate.

I feel like there is a whole element of analysis left out. High percentage throws that don't net a lot of yards aren't going to help the team win. I would bet dollars to donuts those receivers have a much much lower yards per reception start than the top 4 receivers in the league.

Additionally,catches that don't turn into RedZone TD's become a huge issue or receivers that aren't able to get open when the field shortens are a huge issue and I think we see that in our red zone efficiency and overall scoring stats. What you outlined is just one variable in what needs to be a multivariate analysis.

 

[RIpats88]

Why do patriots fans love to stand by this myth we don't need elite pass catchers and bill is smarter than everyone else by ignoring it

Fact is Patriots and Brady performed better when we had elite pass catchers. Unless 2006, 2013 and 2019 didn't exist...

 

[Real fan 02]

Yeah, look how great DHop is doing these days in the 25th ranked offense on a 2 - 5 team. Tannyhill has 2 TDs to his name.

Im not so sure that Purdy is done at all. The Browns defense is legit. Turnovers killed the 49ers vs the Vikings.

Not that he's done at all.. it's just you know there's film now out on him.. I give him credit he plays within the offense . Tennehil never did anything overly impressive as a starter he had flashes here and there. The 49ers defense couldn't get off the filed on 3rd downs is what doomed them.

 

[Real fan 02]

As I mentioned prior, the Pats historically have had less major needs than most teams in the NFL. The WR position has mostly been a question mark throughout Tom's career, but neglected. I'm not following how investing in the WR position would've impacted other areas of the team? It wouldn't cost them anything if Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price and finally N'Keal Harry became stud WR's until their rookie deals were up. The Pats hit on both Branch and Givens and them for 3-4 years on the cheap. After that, they only hit on Edelman which took him 4-5 years to get real returns on him. That's really bad.

Without the drafting of Gronk, they are stuck at 3 titles. Gronk was the catalyst to their offense as Richard Seymour was to the defense. Bill and Tom would've parted ways even sooner as the rumor was Bill wanted to get rid of Tom after the 2013 season.

I see Purdy's major weakness is throwing to the outside. With the loss of Deebo, teams have been forcing stuff outside which Purdy is struggling badly with.

Absolutely correct! Ayuk has gotten the attention becuase there is no one else to threaten them outside. With deebo out.

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

M

Really?

Receptions of the top 4 receivers by year has been 175, 160, 187, and 164.

The top 3 have given us 155, 139, 175, and 133.
======================
Two of the season were winning seasons; 12-4 and 10-7, two were losing seasons: 8-9 and 7-9-1.

==================
For 25 years, posters have said that the key to success is having a top 10 receiver, one of the best in the league. Over that time, we have had Welker, Moss and Edelman.

I suggest that the answer to success is not at the WR position. Rather this team is about strong lines, top 10 defenses, and top 10 ST's.
====================
We talk about lack of WR production. I would remind folks that even having WR's average THREE receptions a game is relatively rare. We had 2 in 2022, 3 in 2021, 2 in 2020, and 1 in 2019.

Receptions by the number 3 receiver has been 26, 33, 37 and 31.
Folks want to be sure that we have a quality #5. Our #4 has very few receptions: 20, 21, 12 and 31, usually fewer than TWO catches per game, hardly key. Parker is the only #4 to have over two catches per game.
================
BOTTOM LINE
Our number one this year is likely to have as many receptions as last year.
Our #2 will also be likely to have the same as the #2
Parker is on schedule to reach the same total as he had last year (as #3 or #4)

Sure, we could use add a top 10 receiver. That is the case for almost every team. What we need much more is better coaching of the assets that we have, that we draft and that we acquire. We have Bourne and Douglas. A team needs three plus backups in case of injury. It is NOT too much to expect that one of our remaining FIVE can step up the plate.

misleading stat if taken in isolation. It is not just about number of catches

Its big plays, yac, touchdowns, total yards, how does the defense have to defend you, separation, blocking

Yes the Patriots need vertical threats and reliable separators

 

[Ivan]

Bourne and Douglas could be really good #2's.

I agree, both could be part of a decent passing attack.