The last 3 Patriot's drafts......

[jah]

New England has not had a first round bust in the BB era.



Wilson and Ebner are huge disappointments, to date.

Watson and Meriweather were mediocre (although Watson might have just been used wrong given his success on other teams), and Maroney was a total bust.

 

[Rob0729]

Watson and Meriweather were mediocre (although Watson might have just been used wrong given his success on other teams), and Maroney was a total bust.

Both Watson and Merriweather were good for a short period of time. Enough to make their picks disappointments. I don't even know if Maroney is an outright bust because they did get some production out of him especially his rookie season, but he was the far biggest first round disappointment of the Belichick era.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Take away the first rounders and considering those as givens, to one extent or another, and you've got a solid 2011 and a weak 2012. Wilson, Bequette and Ebner are huge disappointments to this point, and the 7th round pugilist is the lone saving grace of the draft, post round one.

Did you mean "Ebert"?

Even if you didn't, how can Ebner possibly be a "huge disappointment"?

 

[Deus Irae]

It doesn't change how his on the field play was, but it certainly changes the way you evaluate that on the field play. If a player is clearly hampered by an injury, you take that into affect in your analysis of his play when he is playing through that injury.

No.... If a player is hurt you say point out his level of play. What you're talking about is explaining that level, which is not the same thing. It's entirely possible that Jones might have gotten, say 15 sacks if he hadn't been hurt. It's also possible that nothing of significance would have been different. All we can do is note the issue and move on.

Expectations were unfairly high for the guy in the first place. People expected him to come in an be an immediate impact player off the bat. He was a solid player all year. He was still better than a lot of the defensive players taken before him. The only area he disappointed was coverage and that is a big issue if he doesn't improve that.

He was supposed to be in the running for ROY. In the end, I'm not sure he was even the best rookie on the team. You can justify that how you wish. To me, that's a clear disappointment.

If we did a draft do over, I would still have no problem with where he was selected and the fact had to trade up to get him. Other than Bobby Wagner, there isn't a single LB that I can think of who selected after him that I wanted more. And Wagner was a huge surprise on how good he was last year.

In fact, if they redid the 2012 draft, Jones wouldn't be available where the Pats took him and probably neither would Hightower.

To repeat what I've said;

A.) BB has never drafted a first round bust, so 1st round picks can be looked at as givens when evaluating drafts (this is a good thing).

B.) I've no problem with Hightower or Jones and only broke them down because people couldn't seem to get a grasp on what was meant by "A.)"

Either way, I think your assessment is unfair to the players a bit especially Jones.

You griping about my assessments is probably the least surprising thing that will happen in my life today.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Watson and Meriweather were mediocre (although Watson might have just been used wrong given his success on other teams), and Maroney was a total bust.

I don't know exactly what went wrong with Maroney, but I reserve "total bust" for players drafted high who contribute essentially nothing (e.g., Kevin O'Connell).

Maroney had almost 1,900 yards from scrimmage in 2006 and 2007, and 13 TDs. He may not have been worth a first-round pick, but that's hardly "total bust" territory.

 

[Deus Irae]

Watson and Meriweather were mediocre (although Watson might have just been used wrong given his success on other teams), and Maroney was a total bust.

Maroney was a significant part of the 2007 run, and had a career cut short by injury as much as by non-injury issues. Calling that a bust, particularly after his solid rookie season, seems silly to me.

I do agree that he's the weakest of the BB 1st rounders to date, though.

 

[patfanken]

Some comments on the comments:

1. I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with Tavon Wilson's rookie year. Coming to a complex sophisticated defense, playing a position he'd rarely played before, Wilson played significant minutes on one of the best teams in the league and contributed. Played in all 16 games and started 4. He had 41 tackles, 4 picks, a forced fumble, and 2 recoveries.

Sure he made mistakes, but so do ALL rookies. There were a number of first round picks who didn't have close to Wilson's impact on his team. I'm sure there a only a handful of 2nd round picks who did more in their first year than Wilson. All in all it was a great first year, especially from a guy with such low expectations.

I have no idea why people here act like their surprised he's still on the roster. By any legitimate rating system Tavon Wilson had an excellent rookie year. It was just so overshadowed by the fact that 3 of his fellow rookies (Jones, Hightower, and Dennard) had such exceptional rookie years.

 

[Huckleberry1]

First round picks aren't "givens" by any means, teams screw themselves all the time by missing on them.

 

[jmt57]

For the sake of comparison, here are the drafts from 2011 and 2012 for the teams that were one and two spots in front of the Patriots in draft order that year, and teams that were one and two spots behind the Patriots in draft order that year.


2012

Baltimore Ravens: two slots earlier (29th)
OLB Courtney Upshaw - 2.35
OT Kelechi Osemele - 2.60
RB Bernard Pierce - 3.84
OG Gino Gradkowski - 4.98
FS Christian Thompson - 4.130
CB Asa Jackson - 5.169
WR Tommy Streeter - 6.198
DE Deangelo Tyson - 7.236

San Francisco 49ers: one slot earlier (30th)
WR A.J. Jenkins - 1.30
RB LaMichael Jenkins - 2.61
OG Joe Looney - 4.117
OLB Darius Fleming - 5.165
FS Trent Robinson - 6.180
C Jason Slowey - 6.199
DE Cam Johnson - 7.237

New York Giants: one slot later (32nd)
RB David Wilson - 1.32
WR Rueben Randle - 2.63
CB Jayron Hosley - 3.94
TE Adrien Robinson - 4.127
OT Brandon Mosley - 4.131
OT Matt McCants - 6.201
DT Markus Kuhn - 7.239

St. Louis Rams: two slots later (33rd/1st)
WR Brian Quick - 2.33
CB Janoris Jenkins - 2.39
RB Isaiah Pead - 2.50
CB Trumaine Johnson - 3.65
WR Chris Givens - 4.96
OT Rokevious Watkins - 5.150
K Greg Zuerlein - 6.171
LB Aaron Brown - 7.209
RB Daryl Richardson - 7.252


2011

Baltimore Ravens: two slots earlier (26th)
CB Jimmy Smith - 1.27
WR Torrey Smith WR - 2.58
OT Jah Reid - 3.85
WR Tandon Doss - 4.123
CB Chykie Brown - 5.164
DE Pernell McPhee - 5.165
QB Tyrod Taylor - 6.180
RB Anthony Allen - 7.225

Atlanta Falcons: one slot earlier (27th)
WR Julio Jones - 1.06
LB Akeem Dent - 3.91
RB Jacquizz Rodgers - 5.145
K Matt Bosher - 6.192
OL Andrew Jackson - 7.210
DL Cliff Matthews - 7.230

Chicago Bears: one slot later (29th)
OL Gabe Carimi - 1.29
DT Stephen Paea - 2.53
DB Chris Conte - 3.93
QB Nathan Enderle - 5.160
LB James Thomas - 6.195

New York Jets: two slots later (30th)
DT Mo Wilkerson - 1.30
DL Kenrick Ellis - 3.94
RB Bilal Powell - 4.126
WR Jeremy Kerley - 5.153
QB Greg McElroy - 7.208
WR Scotty McKnight - 7.227



Overall there are very mixed results. I think sometimes our expectations for the production from any given draft class or specific draft pick may be unrealistically high. The highlight is Atlanta's selection of Julio Jones; to obtain him they traded away their 1st, 2nd and 4th round pick that year, plus their 1st and 4th in the following year.

 

[Rob0729]

For the sake of comparison, here are the drafts from 2011 and 2012 for the teams that were one and two spots in front of the Patriots in draft order that year, and teams that were one and two spots behind the Patriots in draft order that year.


2012

Baltimore Ravens: two slots earlier (29th)
OLB Courtney Upshaw - 2.35
OT Kelechi Osemele - 2.60
RB Bernard Pierce - 3.84
OG Gino Gradkowski - 4.98
FS Christian Thompson - 4.130
CB Asa Jackson - 5.169
WR Tommy Streeter - 6.198
DE Deangelo Tyson - 7.236

San Francisco 49ers: one slot earlier (30th)
WR A.J. Jenkins - 1.30
RB LaMichael Jenkins - 2.61
OG Joe Looney - 4.117
OLB Darius Fleming - 5.165
FS Trent Robinson - 6.180
C Jason Slowey - 6.199
DE Cam Johnson - 7.237

New York Giants: one slot later (32nd)
RB David Wilson - 1.32
WR Rueben Randle - 2.63
CB Jayron Hosley - 3.94
TE Adrien Robinson - 4.127
OT Brandon Mosley - 4.131
OT Matt McCants - 6.201
DT Markus Kuhn - 7.239

St. Louis Rams: two slots later (33rd/1st)
WR Brian Quick - 2.33
CB Janoris Jenkins - 2.39
RB Isaiah Pead - 2.50
CB Trumaine Johnson - 3.65
WR Chris Givens - 4.96
OT Rokevious Watkins - 5.150
K Greg Zuerlein - 6.171
LB Aaron Brown - 7.209
RB Daryl Richardson - 7.252


2011

Baltimore Ravens: two slots earlier (26th)
CB Jimmy Smith - 1.27
WR Torrey Smith WR - 2.58
OT Jah Reid - 3.85
WR Tandon Doss - 4.123
CB Chykie Brown - 5.164
DE Pernell McPhee - 5.165
QB Tyrod Taylor - 6.180
RB Anthony Allen - 7.225

Atlanta Falcons: one slot earlier (27th)
WR Julio Jones - 1.06
LB Akeem Dent - 3.91
RB Jacquizz Rodgers - 5.145
K Matt Bosher - 6.192
OL Andrew Jackson - 7.210
DL Cliff Matthews - 7.230

Chicago Bears: one slot later (29th)
OL Gabe Carimi - 1.29
DT Stephen Paea - 2.53
DB Chris Conte - 3.93
QB Nathan Enderle - 5.160
LB James Thomas - 6.195

New York Jets: two slots later (30th)
DT Mo Wilkerson - 1.30
DL Kenrick Ellis - 3.94
RB Bilal Powell - 4.126
WR Jeremy Kerley - 5.153
QB Greg McElroy - 7.208
WR Scotty McKnight - 7.227

Looking at some of these drafts, I am glad the Pats took who they took. With some exceptions, most of these drafts are mediocre at best and some are downright awful.

And the sad thing for the Jets, their 2011 draft was by far their best draft since 2007. And they got two players who have done anything in that draft (a very good Wilkerson and a decent Kerley).

 

[manxman2601]

Some comments on the comments:

1. I don't know how anyone can be disappointed with Tavon Wilson's rookie year. Coming to a complex sophisticated defense, playing a position he'd rarely played before, Wilson played significant minutes on one of the best teams in the league and contributed. Played in all 16 games and started 4. He had 41 tackles, 4 picks, a forced fumble, and 2 recoveries.

Sure he made mistakes, but so do ALL rookies. There were a number of first round picks who didn't have close to Wilson's impact on his team. I'm sure there a only a handful of 2nd round picks who did more in their first year than Wilson. All in all it was a great first year, especially from a guy with such low expectations.

I have no idea why people here act like their surprised he's still on the roster. By any legitimate rating system Tavon Wilson had an excellent rookie year. It was just so overshadowed by the fact that 3 of his fellow rookies (Jones, Hightower, and Dennard) had such exceptional rookie years.

Firstly I agree with you, people are being way too harsh on Wilson.

But, immediately after I read your excellent post, I read this elsewhere:

5. Tavon Wilson & the safety position. Seems like there has been a clear cut-off when it comes to the starting safeties; it's been Devin McCourty and then veterans Steve Gregory and Adrian Wilson have rotated alongside him. Second-year man Tavon Wilson, who some might have viewed as a starting candidate, hasn't been as big of a part of that top-unit mix. Gregory has been around the ball.

Cleaning out the Patriots notebook - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


It does seem he has some work to do to make his way back up the depth chart. Still, compared to a couple of years ago, the safety depth chart is a whole lot better than it was, in part thanks to Tavon Wilson.

 

[DarrylS]

Firstly I agree with you, people are being way too harsh on Wilson.

But, immediately after I read your excellent post, I read this elsewhere:

Cleaning out the Patriots notebook - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston


It does seem he has some work to do to make his way back up the depth chart. Still, compared to a couple of years ago, the safety depth chart is a whole lot better than it was, in part thanks to Tavon Wilson.

The nice thing is that we are not talking about JAGS off of the street, as we did several years ago... or to a lesser extent "Big Bang Clock"....

Good to see the value that BB is placing on DB's in general...

 

[BradyFTW!]

I know what was going on with Jones. It doesn't change what his on-the-field play was, and that's how you evaluate players.



Hightower was a bit of a disappointment, which is not the same as being a bust or bad player. It is what it is.



I've no problem with them. I broke it down because people couldn't just accept it as a given.

Who was doing the advertising? I wasn't disappointed with Hightower's production, on the whole. He was weak in coverage, but given that he was a 270 pound rookie, that didn't exactly shock me. OTOH, I was very impressed with his ability to rush the passer; thought he over-delivered there.

On the whole, he was about what I expected. Meanwhile, the general consensus was that Jones would take a year or more to develop, but he ended up being DROY-caliber until his injury. Granted, injuries are an ongoing concern with him.

 

[Deus Irae]

Who was doing the advertising? I wasn't disappointed with Hightower's production, on the whole. He was weak in coverage, but given that he was a 270 pound rookie, that didn't exactly shock me. OTOH, I was very impressed with his ability to rush the passer; thought he over-delivered there.

On the whole, he was about what I expected. Meanwhile, the general consensus was that Jones would take a year or more to develop, but he ended up being DROY-caliber until his injury. Granted, injuries are an ongoing concern with him.

You, for example....

I wouldn't be shocked to see either one of them win ROY.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/926068-better-rookie-season-hightower-jones.html#post3076736

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/926068-better-rookie-season-hightower-jones.html#post3077034

 

[BradyFTW!]

You, for example....



http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/926068-better-rookie-season-hightower-jones.html#post3076736

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/926068-better-rookie-season-hightower-jones.html#post3077034

So what? Going into the season, I wouldn't have been shocked for either of them to win DROY. Didn't expect them to, but it was in play. Instead, they both missed some time with injury, but when healthy proved to be extremely effective. Nothing in those statements conflicted with the point that I'm making now, and I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that they do.

If that's the kind of stuff you're going on to conclude that either of them wasn't 'as good as advertised', then that's a pretty ridiculous/flimsy premise.

 

[Deus Irae]

So what? Going into the season, I wouldn't have been shocked for either of them to win DROY. Didn't expect them to, but it was in play. Instead, they both missed some time with injury, but when healthy proved to be extremely effective. Nothing in those statements conflicted with the point that I'm making now, and I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that they do.

If that's the kind of stuff you're going on to conclude that either of them wasn't 'as good as advertised', then that's a pretty ridiculous/flimsy premise.

You asked who was doing the advertising. I pointed out that you were one of them. I'm not even sure what you're trying to argue here, since you're undercutting your own points.

That being the case, and the 1st round picks being meaningless in terms of the analysis I was giving (since I considered them as givens as far as being good picks), there's just no reason to continue discussing them. I hadn't even been discussing them in the first place, for crying out loud.

The reality is that we can't really do a 3 year draft window that includes 2013, because there's no way in hell to evaluate 2013 draftees yet. All I did was note that and then look at the 3 years starting in 2010 rather than in 2011

2010 was an excellent draft.
2011 was good but not as good as 2010.
2012 is, to this point, the weakest of the past 3 Patriots drafts, and is a 'meh' draft to this point.

This place really needs games to start, because nothing in my posts should have been considered anything remotely controversial, yet people are still looking to start arguments over them.

 

[TFB*]

I havent posted here in a while, Ive been reading a lot about the TC but I had to jump in this thread.

Since when are first rounds "a given?" Many GMs have lost their jobs for not delivering on first round picks. Hell, people have blew the #1 overall pick PLENTY of times. And while BB has never truly screwed the pooch try comparing Mankins, Mayo, Wilfork, DMC to Merriweather, Maroney and Watson... There is no given in NFL drafting. I get what you're arguing but it just doesnt make sense.

Since when can a 6th rounder who made the 53 man roster be considered a "huge disappointment?" If you were expecting an Eric Berry type rookie impact, then the jokes on you. Ebner was a ST ace, something BB values very highly. That pick is pure value. If he turns into something more, thats just gravy. You dont often see a 6-7th rounder turn into a starter especially immediately, but hey, thats just what happened the very next pick. Is this draft still "mediocre?" Or whatever ludicrous adjective you threw out there.

Re: Tavon. The kid outproduced the two safeties drafted ahead of him at 7th overall and 29th overall in way fewer snaps, with a lot more pressure to win. He was great on special teams. Sure, he blew it on two double moves but hes a rookie! They all make mistakes. And to people saying ya, he didnt do anything afterwards, were you watching the Texans PLAYOFF GAMES? He had great coverage on Owen Daniels and Garret Graham. He didnt play much but he was very effective. I bet we see him a lot this year on third down and in big nickel type situations. I'll betcha he got some snaps in the ravens game too and was most likely effective. Again, I dont know if you were expecting an Eric Berry type impact from a mid 2nd rounder but I'd assume your expectations are otherworldly if someone who led the team in TFL, was 3rd in sacks and had a defensive TD all from a LBing position was a "disappointment."

Anyways, kudos to everyone involved in drafting the last few years. We've been VERY VERY successful, especially considering we're guaranteed a spot in the late twenties or early thirties.

And if a "meh" draft gives the Pats 3 starters, a very competent backup safety pushing for playing time and a ST ace.. then sign me up every GD year.

 

[Salva135]

I don't know exactly what went wrong with Maroney, but I reserve "total bust" for players drafted high who contribute essentially nothing (e.g., Kevin O'Connell).

Maroney had almost 1,900 yards from scrimmage in 2006 and 2007, and 13 TDs. He may not have been worth a first-round pick, but that's hardly "total bust" territory.

Maroney carried a historic passing offense on his back during the 2007 playoff game against the Chargers. That contribution alone makes him a non-bust. But I would group Watson, Maroney, and Meriwether all in the same group as guys who were drafted with high potential that never achieved it. If you want to call that a bust, fine, but they got legitimate production at times out of those players.

If anyone wants to talk about "busts," go to profootball-reference-com. and look up the draft histories of the last 7 years. It's littered with guys who were drafted in the first round and never did a thing for their teams.

 

[Rob0729]

2010 was an excellent draft.
2011 was good but not as good as 2010.
2012 is, to this point, the weakest of the past 3 Patriots drafts, and is a 'meh' draft to this point.

So far the 2012 draft produced three starters and a special teams demon with seven draft picks. Both Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower were among the ten best rookie defenders in the league last year. The near consensus opinion around the league is that Jones could be become a premiere pass rusher in this league as soon as this year. Nate Ebner led the team in special team tackles. Even Tavon Wilson had flashes with 4 INTs.

The 2012 draft class produced more in their rookie season than the 2011 draft class did in their rookie season. The 2011 draft class only produced only one rookie starter in Solder and he did it primarily due to injuries to Vollmer and Light. Ridley only had 441 yards and 1 TD his rookie season. Vereen had 206 total yards and 2 TDs. Based on rookie year performances alone, the 2012 draft was far, far superior than the 2011 draft.

I would say based on what we have so far, the ranking on those three drafts are:

1.) 2010
2.) 2012
3.) 2011

If the 2012 draft have similar types of jumps from year one to year two that the 2011 and 2010 drafts did, the 2012 draft has the potential to be one of Belichick's best drafts.

 

[TriplecHamp]

So far the 2012 draft produced three starters and a special teams demon with seven picks. Both Chandler Jones and Donte Hightower were among the ten best rookie defenders in the league last year. The near consensus opinion around the league is that Jones could be become a premiere pass rusher in this league as soon as this year. Nate Ebner led the team in special team tackles. Even Tavon Wilson had flashes with 4 INTs.

The 2012 draft class produced more in their rookie season than the 2011 draft class did in their rookie season. The 2011 draft class only produced only one rookie starter in Solder and he did it primarily due to injuries to Vollmer and Light. Ridley only had 441 yards and 1 TD his rookie season. Vereen had 206 total yards and 2 TDs. Based on rookie year performances alone, the 2012 draft was far, far superior than the 2011 draft.

I would say based on what we have so far, the ranking on those three drafts are:

1.) 2010
2.) 2012
3.) 2011

If the 2012 draft have similar types of jumps from year one to year two that the 2011 and 2010 drafts did, the 2012 draft has the potential to be one of Belichick's best drafts.

But they aren't yet therefore they are a meh draft class. The 2013 and 2014 draft classes are terrible as well. 0 starters produced and no production what so ever. Don't even get me started on the 2015 class./Deus Logic