The kick that wasn't

[captain stone]

I'm sure all the second guessers had full faith in Gostkowski after he kicked that kick off out of bounds and looked like a deer in headlights walking off the field.

After that, why does anyone think it is a surprise that BB didn't have the confidence to send him out to attempt a kick longer than any he had made all season?

Punting wasn't an option at the 32 yard line. If you don't think your kicker is going to make it, you might as well go for it and in the worst case, not give the Giants the additional 8 yards a FG miss would have.

That's why I think that a draw play from the shotgun on 3rd/7 at the 25 might have come very close to a 1st down. The jints' DL had their ears pinned back for the 5/7-step drop; the DEs would've been too deep to help, and in a 2 RB, 3 WR formation, the lead blocker/RB could've established the up-the-middle running lane through which the 2nd RB/ball-carrier could follow. It could have set up a 4th/short, if not a 1st down, at a much more makeable distance.

I also agree that a 48-yarder, proceeding his stupid KO shank, was no gimme. Maybe not even a 42-yarder; thus my suggestion to run the ball, rather than risk a sack/INC/INT, on 3rd down.

I still can't believe we lost that effin game.

 

[JoePats]

Also I've always wondered what this board was thinking as that drive started, how many of you expected Brady to lead us to at least 3 during that drive? All bias aside, I honestly did.

So did I. Absolutely no question in my mind. Now, that was probably somewhat arrogant. 35 seconds doesn't give you a lot of margin for error, but I really did think we would go to OT at worst.

Regarding the field goal, I don't know. I probably would have kicked it. But honestly I didn't have that much confidence in Gostowski either. If it was 4th and 8 I would have probably gone for it. I know 5 yards is a long way, but I don't think it's a black and white decision.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If Belichick thinks there's a better chance that Gostkowski makes the kick than misses at 4th and 13 at the 35, on turf, with no wind, in a dome, in the Superbowl, he sends him in. He doesn't. End of story. BB is an HOF coach with three rings. He didn't think he had a kicker who could get it done. That's in the past.

What I'm concerned about is the future. AV made two of the greatest clutch kicks in the history of the NFL just to get us to XXXVI. To be honest, I don't know what we have now. And, to be honest, I don't think Belichick does either. I have no idea what to do with that or where to go with it, but it seems to be the case.

 

[Gumby]

Regarding the field goal, I don't know. I probably would have kicked it. But honestly I didn't have that much confidence in Gostowski either. If it was 4th and 8 I would have probably gone for it. I know 5 yards is a long way, but I don't think it's a black and white decision.

I can understand not kicking it; even the best FG kickers only hit 50-70% of the over 45 yarders. Tough to tell exactly since most stats run 40-49yds (nfl avg 83%), and then 50+ (nfl avg 39%). But note that vinatieri was 0-2 40-49 and 0-1 in 50+ in 2007.

But if you aren't going to kick it; then on 4th 13 you squib or pooch something into the corner. I agree there is a substantial difference between 4-8 and 4-13.

There is no way I think you go on 4-13 when you are having difficulties the whole day moving the ball. Every time this discussion comes up someone comes up with that statistical study where anywhere between the 10s you are better off ON AVERAGE going for it. But that presumes an average defense and that you are having average success. With their success and brady's injury we were below average on both counts.

All in all our def was doing ok; i would have let gost cut loose. Or if not faked going and let TB pooch punt.

But I think BB was worried about a blocked kick due to low trajectory more than he was worrying about him missing it. The funny thing is that the guy who was always cool as a cucumber and let the other coach do the stupid thing - did the stupid thing here (IMHO). But who knows ....the whole frickin game was a total anomoly for BB from the red hoodie onwards.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

If Belichick thinks there's a better chance that Gostkowski makes the kick than misses at 4th and 13 at the 35, on turf, with no wind, in a dome, in the Superbowl, he sends him in. He doesn't. End of story. BB is an HOF coach with three rings. He didn't think he had a kicker who could get it done. That's in the past.

So, if Brady throws to Moss in the end zone instead of Welker, who's also open, does that mean that Brady thinks Welker can't get it done? Fundamentally, it's the same argument as yours.

And, as a more fundamental question: if the Pats didn't have faith in Gostkowski, why haven't they brought anyone else in, even for a tryout?

 

[richpats]

If Belichick thinks there's a better chance that Gostkowski makes the kick than misses at 4th and 13 at the 35, on turf, with no wind, in a dome, in the Superbowl, he sends him in. He doesn't. End of story. BB is an HOF coach with three rings. He didn't think he had a kicker who could get it done.

If that is the case, then Belichick had a big special-teams problem going into the season that was well-concealed by our powerful offense. A team that doesn't have a (regular) kicker capable of ATTEMPTING a 48-yarder is not a complete team IMO.

What if Brady drove the Pats to the Giants' 31 in the closing seconds? Would Belichick have sent Gostkowski out to tie it up? You bet your butt he would have. I hold that the 4th-down attempt was a bad decision that threw logic out the window.

 

[fumbrunner]

Missing a kick from outside the 20 is like taking a 8 yard sack on that 4th and 13 play, and field goals over 45 yards have something like a 50/50 shot at being good.

Just something to keep in mind.

If that's the case, they should have punted. 2nd option would have been to go for the field goal and hopefully give themselves a 7 point lead. Going for it is completely a non-starter.

 

[JoePats]

So, if Brady throws to Moss in the end zone instead of Welker, who's also open, does that mean that Brady thinks Welker can't get it done? Fundamentally, it's the same argument as yours.

And, as a more fundamental question: if the Pats didn't have faith in Gostkowski, why haven't they brought anyone else in, even for a tryout?

Not at all. It just means that Brady thinks someone is more open. Or he didn't see Welker. Brady has about 1 second to make his decision.

Belichick has weeks. Or if he wants to base it on something earlier (like the kickoff out of bounds), he still has 15 minutes, half hour, whatever it was. Totally different situations.

As for your more fundamental question. That one I don't have an answer too. But it is hard to believe that BB thought his team had a better chance of converting 4th and 13 (honestly, what percentage could that have been) than he did of making a 48 yard FG. Even when you factor in the greater reward for converting (a potential TD later in the possession, which would have ended the game), it's still strange.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

As for your more fundamental question. That one I don't have an answer too.

The short answer, of course, is that the Patriots haven't lost faith in Gostkowski (if they had, he wouldn't still be a Patriot).

 

[GostkowSKI]

Something to keep in mind, but previous to the non-FG attempt, Gostkowski had kicked a kickoff out of bounds.

 

[godef]

Something to keep in mind, but previous to the non-FG attempt, Gostkowski had kicked a kickoff out of bounds.

If you're thinking that BB was punishing Gostowski for that, the Super Bowl is hardly the time nor the place for that.

 

[Disco Volante]

If you're thinking that BB was punishing Gostowski for that, the Super Bowl is hardly the time nor the place for that.

I don't think he was punishing, rather he lost confidence in.

 

[Dino 6 Rings]

as a true football fan, I say I'd have to agree with that call at the time it was made. it was early in the 3rd, the Patriots had the best offense ever and the idea that they'd only be within field goal range I think 2 more times all game from that point was just not something anyone could have believed, especially the head coach.

It was a very long field goal, and miss gives the Giants an extra 7 yards and momentum. A punt is like giving up in that situation and the chances of it going out of the endzone are very high that close. Going for it, with the most potent offense ever, against a team that yes they were struggling against that day, but had had success against earlier in the year was a good call at the time it was made. The playcall could be questioned, but the decision to go for it, that was a good call. If they Pats convert there, they pretty much stick a knife into the guts of the Giants. They don't finish them off, but they keep the Giants clock eating offense off the field for one, they get the Giants defense a little nervous knowing they just gave up a huge play and they give their own struggling offense confidence.

Looking back, it may have been a bad call, but during the game, while I was watching it, I did not say "wtf are they doing?" I said "if they convert this the Giants are dead"

 

[GostkowSKI]

I don't think he was punishing, rather he lost confidence in.

That's the point I was trying to convey, not the "punishing" aspect.

 

[Deus Irae]

#1 scoring offense in NFL history with a coach that loves to go for it on 4th down. Brady says there was an open man but he missed it. This shouldn't even be an issue. I wanted the field goal too, but my preference doesn't mean that BB was wrong.

 

[JoePats]

I said "if they convert this the Giants are dead"

Dino, I think this is exactly BB's point of view. He knew if they ever got that (and then a TD) it was game over.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

There was a 50% chance a very good kicker makes it from that distance.

Considering he is untested from that distance, and given the shank of the KO earlier, I figure it was a 30-40% proposition at best. Going for it on 4th is probably riskier, but with higher reward potential (can score a TD).

I never beat myself up over this one. Neither option was great, so the coach picked the one that if it did work gave us the best chance to win.

Could the other choice have worked better? Yes.
Would most other coaches have made the different choice? Yes.
Do I wish he would have made a different choice? yes, but only since the 4th down play didn't work, LOL.

If this call came up in the next game, I can still see it going either way.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

So, if Brady throws to Moss in the end zone instead of Welker, who's also open, does that mean that Brady thinks Welker can't get it done? Fundamentally, it's the same argument as yours.

And, as a more fundamental question: if the Pats didn't have faith in Gostkowski, why haven't they brought anyone else in, even for a tryout?

I gotta be honest. I don't see any comparison between the split-second decision to throw to one open receiver vs. another and the sideline decision at 4th and 13 on the 35 in a dome in the SB not to go for the FG. The one is made in the blink of an eye by a QB with 350 pound trains running at him, the other is made on the sidelines by the HC with input from his Assistants with somewhere between 30 and 90 seconds to think about it, depending on the game circumstances.

As for your question, if you read my original post, you'll see that I don't know the answer. Clearly, Coach didn't have the confidence in Ghost to ask him to try the that FG but seems to be sticking with him now. I'm being honest. That confuses me, but...in BB I trust.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If that is the case, then Belichick had a big special-teams problem going into the season that was well-concealed by our powerful offense. A team that doesn't have a (regular) kicker capable of ATTEMPTING a 48-yarder is not a complete team IMO.

What if Brady drove the Pats to the Giants' 31 in the closing seconds? Would Belichick have sent Gostkowski out to tie it up? You bet your butt he would have. I hold that the 4th-down attempt was a bad decision that threw logic out the window.

That's as good an explanation as any. I guess I'm so used to BB making "good" or "great" decisions that admitting he made a really "bad" decision in this case is tough (especially since this WAS the SB and not Game Two of the Regular Season), but you might just be right.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Dino, I think this is exactly BB's point of view. He knew if they ever got that (and then a TD) it was game over.

Yeah, but Belichick's a cold, hard realist. The odds of converting 4th and 13 against a D that hadn't done too bad all game to that point are a lot worse than the odds of a very good kicker making a 50 yard FG in a dome on turf. My guess is that the latter is around 50--50 while the former must be no better than 20--80. I'd buy your argument had it been 4th and three.