The hard part of our schedule ends Sunday night

[BradyManny]

Especially in terms of facing pass defenses, which is always a good indicator of level of competition.

6 of our 8 opponents have been in the top half of the league in terms of defensive passer rating; including the league's best, the Jets, and 5 of the best 11.

After we face the league's best pass defense this Sunday for the second time, GOING FORWARD: we will face the three bottom teams (Indy, Denver, Miami) along with three middle of the pack teams. We finish it off with Buffalo, who is in the top 5 in this category.

However, for frame of reference, consider the undefeated Packers have faced 5 of the worst 10 pass defenses; 6 of the worst 15; and ZERO teams in the top HALF of the league's pass defenses.

For about the third straight year, the strength of our schedule - especially in terms of the defenses we faced, is largely being ignored.

A victory this week and we could very well run the table going into Buffalo to end the season. A loss this week might derail the season to the point where we can't take advantage of the easy part of our schedule, unfortunately.

NOTE - proof of why defensive passer rating is a good indicator of level of competition....

Consider that of the teams in the TOP 10 in the league in this category:
- All but one have 5 wins or more
- Six of 10 have 6 wins or more
- In all, these 10 teams have won 70% of their games

Consider that of the teams in the BOTTOM 10 in the league in this category:
- Only one is above .500 (the Patriots)
- Excluding the Patriots, these teams are winning just a mind-boggling 25% of their games.

 

[NEP4Life]

What are the chances the Pats go 7-0 after Sunday's game?

 

[Patriot Missile]

I would say it ended after week 12 when we've played KC and Philly who despite not living up to expectation are still very real threats when it comes to scoring points.

 

[BradyManny]

I would say it ended after week 12 when we've played KC and Philly who despite not living up to expectation are still very real threats when it comes to scoring points.

Those are games that I would categorize as could lose, but should win. Maybe we split those. But other than that, all the games on our schedule - Washington, Miami, Denver, Indy - are games that we should win - period.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...famous last words...

 

[DarrylS]

For what it is worth..

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

In 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season conducted by AccuScore, the Patriots captured the division 69.1 percent of the time, followed by the Jets (18.3) and Bills (12.6).

 

[Rob0729]

For what it is worth..

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

I think they had the Pats winning last week 78% of the time last week in 10,000 simulations. Then again, they did say that if Brady threw two picks against the Giants that the Giants then had something like 60% of winning. So they got that part right.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Consider that of the teams in the BOTTOM 10 in the league in this category:
- Only one is above .500 (the Patriots)
- Excluding the Patriots, these teams are winning just a mind-boggling 25% of their games.

That, in a nutshell, is why I'm not super optimistic about this team's chances going forward, although the rest of your point is duly noted, as well. If the Pats can become even decent in this area, they'll be tough to beat. If they get to a decent ranking by beating up on teams that can't pass the ball, though, then that is not a point in favor of the Pats' playoff chances.

 

[BradyFTW!]

For what it is worth..

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Honestly, that doesn't surprise me too much. I still think that the Pats are the best team in the AFC East, by a fairly significant margin no less. I may not be as high on the Pats as many, but I'm apparently a whole lot lower on the Jets and Bills than most, as well. Neither one of them is a serious contender. Sanchez still sucks, and the Bills still can't beat a good team without getting a bunch of turnovers.

 

[Deus Irae]

Honestly, that doesn't surprise me too much. I still think that the Pats are the best team in the AFC East, by a fairly significant margin no less. I may not be as high on the Pats as many, but I'm apparently a whole lot lower on the Jets and Bills than most, as well. Neither one of them is a serious contender. Sanchez still sucks, and the Bills still can't beat a good team without getting a bunch of turnovers.

Here's the thing, though, with regards to this year specifically.

Swap QBs and then re-evaluate the two teams.



Jets, by a mile.


Now, naturally, that's a "what if" that's not going to happen. But what it shows is that Brady has to really dominate the QB matchup in order for the Patriots to really gain the edge in the matchups. He can't just win the matchup. He's got to own it. That's been the case since Ryan took over as Jets head coach.

 

[Jangles]

Here's the thing, though, with regards to this year specifically.

Swap QBs and then re-evaluate the two teams.



Jets, by a mile.

Just one mile?

 

[BradyFTW!]

Here's the thing, though, with regards to this year specifically.

Swap QBs and then re-evaluate the two teams.



Jets, by a mile.


Now, naturally, that's a "what if" that's not going to happen. But what it shows is that Brady has to really dominate the QB matchup in order for the Patriots to really gain the edge in the matchups. He can't just win the matchup. He's got to own it. That's been the case since Ryan took over as Jets head coach.

Oh absolutely. At most positions other than QB, the Jets are superior to the Patriots. But the Patriots are orders of magnitude at QB, and that makes up for plenty.

 

[neuronet]

Philly will be very tough for us, their defense is similar to Giants.

 

[Hitman Harris]

Philly will be very tough for us, their defense is similar to Giants.

Its completely different then the Giants. Giants have the best D line in football and the Eagles get run on at will. Their strength is in their corners.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

For what it is worth..

New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

accuscore also said we would beat the giants 72% of the simulations. :bricks:

 

[SVN]

Problem is jets have an identical schedule except we play the colts and they play the giants. So if the pats lose sunday, we need the jets to lose 2 more than us to have a shot at the division

 

[patsfan-1982]

after the jets

home vs KC not a easy win,
at the eagles thats going to be hard to win,
home vs the colts they still have a nuff talent at WR to put points on the bord,
at washington if john beck is the QB it should be a blow out for the pats,
at denver thats a whole new team with Tebow at QB
home vs the fish should be a win,
home vs the bills that will be a dog fight,


i see the pats going 5-2 after the jets game

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Disagree, KC and philly will be hard. After that it ends.

The Giants beat us without Nicks and Bradshaw so those teams will give us trouble at least.

There's no excuse for us losing any of the last 5 games barring an injury to Brady. THAT is an easy schedule. If we don't win each and every one of those games we don't deserve the division or the playoffs. The Buffalo game may be tough but it's at home and if anything's on the line and you can't beat Buffalo at home, again you don't deserve the division/playoffs.

 

[folamzz]

Its completely different then the Giants. Giants have the best D line in football and the Eagles get run on at will. Their strength is in their corners.

Trent cole and Jason babin are not bad pass rushers. What really scares me about that game is the philly offense. Vick, McCoy, Jackson and Maclin could embarrass us that day. The offense will have to show up and we must put our best athletes on field on defense to match up with there speed.

That is the only game I will advocate for a bend but don't break defense. Vick is bound to make mistakes the longer the drive.

 

[NinjaZX6R]

What are the chances the Pats go 7-0 after Sunday's game?

Rather go 7-1 starting from Sunday.

One loss coming from the Eagles or the Broncos. I hate playing at Mile High.