The Definitive 'Are We the #2 Seed Right Now?' Thread

[bostonia3333]

I have a bad feeling that our @HOU game will be a "for all the marbles" kind of game for both teams. Pats obviously fighting for the 2 seed and Houston fighting for their playoff lives. Houston hopefully will have either clinched a playoff spot by then or will be eliminated. I don't want that game to be a must win for them on their home turf.

 

[brady et al fan]

Pats vs. Cincy
Pats Wins (NYJ, BAL), Losses (NYJ, DEN), Pending (HOU)
Cincy Wins (BAL, BAL), Losses (DEN, HOU), Pending (NYJ)

Next tie-breaker is SOV. While Pats are currently lagging behind, upcoming Cincy games with CLE and DET will almost certainly drag that down. Assuming they have the same result with the remaining big non-conference games (NO and MIN), the Pats look to have the SOV advantage by the end of the year.

Next tie-breaker is SOS which Pats should have a healthy lead over the Bengals by the end of the year.

Pats vs. Bolts
Pats Wins (BAL, TEN, MIA), Losses (DEN), Pending (MIA)
Bolts Wins (DEN, MIA), Losses (BAL, DEN), Pending (TEN)

SD has some doormats remaining on the schedule (KC, CLE, WAS) that should cause their SOV to nosedive. Also Pats should have no problem with the Bolts in SOS.

So I'm really not concerned about tie-breakers. My biggest worry is with SD winning out and the Pats losing one game. That would set up the Pats without an off week, having to win on the left coast and then go to Indy...pretty much the 2006 scenario. Add in a roadie to Houston in week 17 and that is a tough path to the title.

I would personally rather finish in the #4 spot and take on Indy first. The Pats would then get a week off after the trip to SD before the Super Bowl.

I'm not sure its computed this way. Lets say NE, Cincy, and SD end up tied. If we beat SD and lose to Cincy versus common opponents but SD beats Cincy versus common opponents then who wins that tiebreaker? When I read the rule I figured it took into consideration common opponents for all 3 teams. with a minimum of 4 common opponents. That being the case we'd be reverting to the next tiebreaker which would be strength of victory, ours being not so good right now but could be greatly improved with a win against the Saints.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I want the #2 seed, or the #4 seed.

The #4 seed assures that we will go into Indy head on in the divisional round. Indy has proven to play horrid the divisional round with a bye. (facts are facts)

The #2 seed is obviously the bye.

 

[Metaphors]

I'm not sure its computed this way. Lets say NE, Cincy, and SD end up tied. If we beat SD and lose to Cincy versus common opponents but SD beats Cincy versus common opponents then who wins that tiebreaker? When I read the rule I figured it took into consideration common opponents for all 3 teams. with a minimum of 4 common opponents. That being the case we'd be reverting to the next tiebreaker which would be strength of victory, ours being not so good right now but could be greatly improved with a win against the Saints.

I wasn't doing a 3-way tie-breaker since this is hypothetical enough and the Cincy-SD game makes it less likely they will finish with the same record and/or conference record. But I believe you are correct that unless there were 4 common games between all 3 of them (and there aren't), the SOV tie-breaker would take effect.

 

[farn]

I want the #2 seed, or the #4 seed.

The #4 seed assures that we will go into Indy head on in the divisional round. Indy has proven to play horrid the divisional round with a bye. (facts are facts)

The #2 seed is obviously the bye.

Which is why it's just as good letting anothers olid team go to Indy and maybe beat them. Then we worry about that team.

 

[upstater1]

I want the #2 seed, or the #4 seed.

The #4 seed assures that we will go into Indy head on in the divisional round. Indy has proven to play horrid the divisional round with a bye. (facts are facts)

The #2 seed is obviously the bye.

The #3 seed is much better.
If #4 beats #1, then you're hosting them for the AFC CG.

 

[Wolfpack]

Cincy and SD each have at least 2 losses left in them. 12-4 gets us the 1st round bye and the divisional home game.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The Chargers are playing lights out right now,Best in the AFC the past few weeks.

If all stands as is, the Colts will be #1,The Chargers #2 and the Bengals and Pats to fight it out for #3

 

[Bella*chick]

Cincy and SD each have at least 2 losses left in them. 12-4 gets us the 1st round bye and the divisional home game.

Well, we have to do our part and win too.

 

[gmtaxi27]

I have a bad feeling that our @HOU game will be a "for all the marbles" kind of game for both teams. Pats obviously fighting for the 2 seed and Houston fighting for their playoff lives. Houston hopefully will have either clinched a playoff spot by then or will be eliminated. I don't want that game to be a must win for them on their home turf.

I have the same feeling. If that is the case, it will probably be a Sunday Night game, because of NBC's flex schedule.

As for the #2 seed. I think its a good possibility if we win the next 2 games.

However, if we lose the next 2 games, Miami win have the lead for the division.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Is it accurate to say that we control our own destiny for the #2?

In doing so we would beat Houston, who beat Cincy, and I believe would give us the edge in common opponents.

We beat Baltimore who beat SD so I would think that gives us the edge over them too in common opponents.

Is all that correct?

 

[Metaphors]

Is it accurate to say that we control our own destiny for the #2?

In doing so we would beat Houston, who beat Cincy, and I believe would give us the edge in common opponents.

We beat Baltimore who beat SD so I would think that gives us the edge over them too in common opponents.

Is all that correct?

If NE and Cincy both win out, it would come down to Strength of Victory. While that is impossible to know before the end of the season, I am optimistic for the Pats winning that tie-breaker.

If NE and SD both win out, NE would win on common opponents.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agree with upstater but if you don't get a bye, your logic in how you want to seed is based on projected matchups.

Look at 2005, if the Pats beat MIA, they draw the #3 seed and face Pitt (eventual SB champ) they lose (which they did) and get JAX- in theory a better matchup. BB wanted no part of Pitt Rd 1.

Not sure what BB would favor @ DEN or @ Indy rd 2.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If NE and Cincy both win out, it would come down to Strength of Victory. While that is impossible to know before the end of the season, I am optimistic for the Pats winning that tie-breaker.

If NE and SD both win out, NE would win on common opponents.

Ahh ok, thanks. I forgot to count 2 Baltimore wins for Cincy the first time doing it.

I think we should be able to get the 2 seed at 12-4 if the loss is @ NO. Then again I thought 11-5 would get us in the playoffs last year

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Not true. NE would get in on common opponents over Cincy.

Cincy lost to Houston.

No I think he was right. If we both win out, each of us are 3-2 in common opponents.

 

[The_Riddler]

Remaining Schedules and projections:

San Diego : KC, Cleveland, @Dallas, Cincinnati, @Tenn, Wash

(projected final record 12-4 (loss to either Cinn or Dall)

Cincinnati : Cleveland, Det, @Minn, @SD, KC, @Jets

(projected final record 11-5 (loss to Minn AND SD or Jets)

Pats : NO, Mia, Car, Buff, Jax, Hou

(projected final record 12-4 (loss to either Mia or NO)

So it comes down to Pats/SD for the 2-seed (both finishing 12-4). We have to hope beyond hope that the one game SD loses is to Cincy instead of Dallas thus giving them one extra conference loss. But I am assuming SD beats Cincy and we win our remaining AFC games. That leaves just us and SD at 12-4. Now we would each have the same conference and division records without playing head-to-head. I then think it would come down to record vs. common opponents. And I'm not sure how that would play out.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Let's beat the Saints next monday night, then we can talk about the #2 seed...

That. If we can't get the #2 seed, then it actually is pretty important for us to at least get the #3, IMO. if we ended up with the #3 and San Diego had the #4, that wouldn't be terrible, since it would mean that Indy would have to beat San Diego in the divisional round.

Personally, I think that Cincy is poised for a stumble- Benson's hurt, and they were relying on him a ton. The Chargers might have the inside track to the #2, with KC and Cleveland making it a pretty safe bet that they'll be 9-3 two weeks from now. I would love to see KC take them down though- not a very talented team, but they've given a lot of superior teams tough games.

 

[upstater1]

No I think he was right. If we both win out, each of us are 3-2 in common opponents.

Right, scratch what I wrote.

 

[aluminum seats]

Ahh ok, thanks. I forgot to count 2 Baltimore wins for Cincy the first time doing it.

I think we should be able to get the 2 seed at 12-4 if the loss is @ NO. Then again I thought 11-5 would get us in the playoffs last year

The season ended the right way last year--that team wasn't winning anything, and it let the season end on positive note.

 

[PatsFan24]

I think the Pats need the bye if they are going to the super bowl