The Amendola role

[maineman209]

Given the fact that we paid Shaq Mason a year earlier, drafted Wynn, paid Cannon 2 years ago, kept 4 TE's, kept a FB, and drafted a RB in the first round....

I think we are running it a lot more this year...still we remain primarily a passing offense. So, I'd say we are passing less than last year...but may ramp that up against certain opponents or in the play-offs.

Maybe depends on what you mean by "running it a lot more".

Since about 2007, the league average pass attempt:run attempt ratio has risen to just under 57% passing.

Pats' Pass attempt % by year:

YEAR PASS%
2017 55%
2016 53% (Brady missed first four games)
2015 62% (horrible OL and RB injury rates, + Guge coaching)
2014 58%
2013 57%
2012 55%
2011 58%
2010 53%
2009 56%
2008 51% (Cassell year)
2007 57%
2006 51%
2005 56%
2004 48%
2003 53%
2002 61%
2001 50%

 

[zydecochris]

Maybe depends on what you mean by "running it a lot more".

Since about 2007, the league average pass attempt:run attempt ratio has risen to just under 57% passing.

Pats' Pass attempt % by year:

YEAR PASS%
2017 55%
2016 53% (Brady missed first four games)
2015 62% (horrible OL and RB injury rates, + Guge coaching)
2014 58%
2013 57%
2012 55%
2011 58%
2010 53%
2009 56%
2008 51% (Cassell year)
2007 57%
2006 51%
2005 56%
2004 48%
2003 53%
2002 61%
2001 50%

This was really useful, thanks!

With a 41 year old Brady, and with the Patriots tendencies to zig when others are zagging, I would be happy as a clam if this year we got closer to a 50/50 pass run rate. Based on your data, even 52% pass / 48% run would be a significant change from recent years (apart from the years when Brady missed significant time).

 

[maineman209]

This was really useful, thanks!

With a 41 year old Brady, and with the Patriots tendencies to zig when others are zagging, I would be happy as a clam if this year we got closer to a 50/50 pass run rate. Based on your data, even 52% pass / 48% run would be a significant change from recent years (apart from the years when Brady missed significant time).

Not possible to be arbitrary about it, really. Too many variables.

We (as fans) don't really know how strong against the run all the defenses the Pats will face this year are likely to be. If the majority of them are strong against the run, and relatively weaker against the pass, that may mean a higher pass percentage than last season.

Also, as in 2015, injuries to OL and/or RBs may reduce the Pats ability to run effectively and cause the pass percentage to balloon.

And, of course, it may depend on how many times the Pats enter the 4th Q with a comfortable lead (say, 2TDs+). That, in turn, may depend on the Pats own defense (yet another variable).

If/when is gets to the point where the Pats/McD need to arbitrarily pump up the run% for Brady's sake, Brady will likely retire.

 

[zydecochris]

Not possible to be arbitrary about it, really. Too many variables.

We (as fans) don't really know how strong against the run all the defenses the Pats will face this year are likely to be. If the majority of them are strong against the run, and relatively weaker against the pass, that may mean a higher pass percentage than last season.

Also, as in 2015, injuries to OL and/or RBs may reduce the Pats ability to run effectively and cause the pass percentage to balloon.

And, of course, it may depend on how many times the Pats enter the 4th Q with a comfortable lead (say, 2TDs+). That, in turn, may depend on the Pats own defense (yet another variable).

If/when is gets to the point where the Pats/McD need to arbitrarily pump up the run% for Brady's sake, Brady will likely retire.

You are one of my favorite posters, maybe because I almost always agree with you.

And, I agree with your early paragraphs completely.

However, let me respectfully question that last assertion in bold. Increasing the run % worked great to extend the careers of aging quarterbacks like Elway. Why wouldn't that extend Brady's career a bit, if nothing else to decrease the number of hits he takes? And, why would Brady retire if the pass percentage changed to something like 50 / 50? I would think that he would love having a more dangerous running game. Heck, look what it did for Brees last year. If Brees could figure out how to exploit an improved running game, surely Brady could also, no?

 

[Tony2046]

Not possible to be arbitrary about it, really. Too many variables.

We (as fans) don't really know how strong against the run all the defenses the Pats will face this year are likely to be. If the majority of them are strong against the run, and relatively weaker against the pass, that may mean a higher pass percentage than last season.

Also, as in 2015, injuries to OL and/or RBs may reduce the Pats ability to run effectively and cause the pass percentage to balloon.

And, of course, it may depend on how many times the Pats enter the 4th Q with a comfortable lead (say, 2TDs+). That, in turn, may depend on the Pats own defense (yet another variable).

If/when is gets to the point where the Pats/McD need to arbitrarily pump up the run% for Brady's sake, Brady will likely retire.

Great points Maineman.

It does seem to me (yes it's just an assumption because I haven't looked into it) that they are running the ball more effectively and wonder if that will continue or if that's the direction they are going especially after investing first round capitol into the run game. So it's a question I have at this point..

But you're absolutely right. There are many factors that go into it.

 

[Simpelton]

In 2016, something like 60-65% of the Pats passing attack was devoted to the intermediate range, +/-10yds downfield (Brady's bread-and-butter for years). Pretty much all of those passes landed in the hands of Edelman, Bennett, White, Mitchell and Amendola. The deeper downfield stuff (~15+ "air yards"), about 20-25% of the attack, was handled by Hogan and Gronk (when he was available).

In 2017, Bennett had left in FA, and Mitchell and Edelman were lost to IR relatively late in Camp. That left mainly Amendola and White, with some assistance from Hogan (when available). Intermediate-range passing dropped to about 30% of the attack, while the deeper downfield portion (Cooks & Gronk), and the short range stuff (~5yds, led by White & Burkhead) both increased dramatically.

In 2018, I'd guess Hogan again picks up more of the deeper stuff, along with Gronk. When he returns, Edelman is obviously the guy who'll be dominating the intermediate range. Hogan, Dorsett, Patterson and the three RBs (White, Burkhead, Michel) seem likely contribute most of the rest, each at various points and for various stretches. Hollister and Allen maybe help out a bit, too. Dorsett also seems likely to contribute on the deeper stuff, from time to time.

Anyway, I'd guess that the emphasis returns to the bread-and-butter intermediate range.

It better. Teams live and die on the 5-15 yard passes. The fact that we couldn't dominate in those areas came back to bite us hard in the playoffs, and was one of the biggest reasons we fell behind against Jacksonville and Philly.

Put it this way -- intermediate passes burn clock. Only a brilliant running attack burns anywhere near as much time as solid midfield passing. If your office is marching steadily down the field it can burn up to 4-5 minutes at a time off the clock, If you can make consistent passes for first down even if you have trouble on first or second down. This means passes in the 5-15 yard range are critical for this in order to keep the chains moving. Too much, and you don't burn enough clock. Too little, and you don't get first down, resulting in burning even less clock.

t's like a chess game. Controlling the middle isn't essential but it's a lot harder to win without it.

The high scoring gunslinger match in the recent Superbowl is pretty good evidence that we did NOT do a good job of controlling the time on the clock in that game, and that comes down to dominating the interior passing lanes, something that Edelman and Amendola are both ridiculously good at. We got outplayed there in both the AFCCG and the Superbowl.

I am fully convinced that the middle range guys, especially Edelman and Dola, were a huge part of the 2 Lombardi runs we had recently, because it allowed the Patriots to master the clock and control the tempo on offense in a way you just can't if you can't dominate the yellow line. If we can't find that guy we're going to have to start using Gronk on the inside and force him into high traffic areas, because we HAVE to control the middle game, and that's gonna get him hurt sooner than later.

 

[maineman209]

You are one of my favorite posters, maybe because I almost always agree with you.

And, I agree with your early paragraphs completely.

However, let me respectfully question that last assertion in bold. Increasing the run % worked great to extend the careers of aging quarterbacks like Elway. Why wouldn't that extend Brady's career a bit, if nothing else to decrease the number of hits he takes? And, why would Brady retire if the pass percentage changed to something like 50 / 50? I would think that he would love having a more dangerous running game. Heck, look what it did for Brees last year. If Brees could figure out how to exploit an improved running game, surely Brady could also, no?

To flesh out your comps a bit ...

In Elway's case, until Shanny became the HC, the Broncos had rarely had a rushing attack that placed in the top half of the league, and it was often in the bottom 1/3rd. Shanny didn't arbitrarily begin running the ball more. In fact, in his first season as HC, he actually ran the ball less than the Broncos average from the previous four seasons. Instead, he first built a ground game that consistently placed in the top 10, if not top 5 or even best in the league - a dramatic turnaround (mostly due to vastly improved run-blocking) - and then they ended up running the ball more, a lot more.

Sure, that helped the Broncos become more consistently successful in the last four years of Elway's 16-year career. They went from a .500 club to averaging 13 wins and winning back-to-back Superbowls. But it didn't reduce Elway's average pass attempts per game at all.

With Brees, it's bee a little different, but still not directly comparable with Brady's situation.

From 2012 thru 2016, Brees averaged 664 pass attempts per season and his pass attempts averaged 63% of the Saints' offensive plays. Meanwhile, their ground game averaged pretty close to the bottom 1/3rd of the league, almost across the board.

In 2017, the Saints' ground game jumped up to top-5 in the league (1st in rushing TDs) - a very similar dramatic turnaround. And it did reduce Brees' pass attempts (to 536), and the Saints' passing ratio (to 55%). For the one year, so far.

But that didn't merely "preserve the career" of a QB nearing decline. Brees' completion percentage actually increased, his net yards per attempt increased, his sack% decreased and his interception% decreased. But not because the Saints arbitrarily decided to "run more" to help Brees out. They ran more because their ground game had suddenly become dramatically better, just like the Broncos' ground game did under Shanny.

But here's the important comp.

In 2012, Brady made the most passing attempts of his career - 641 - 23 fewer than Brees' average. Oddly, in that same season, Brady's passing attempts accounted for only 55% of all Pats plays on offense - because they also ran the ball more. They had 1164 total offensive plays that season (a record, I think) due to running the hurry-up and no-huddle almost constantly.

So, while Brees' passing attempts averaged 63% of the Saints' offense over an extended period, Brady has never been above 62%, and has only topped 58% twice in 18 seasons: 2002 and 2015 (when the OL and RB corps were both simultaneously decimated by injuries). During the time when the Saints' passing averaged six percentage points above the league average, the Pats' passing averaged one point below the league average.

At the same time, the Pats ground game has been in the top-10 in the league, if not in the top-5, in most categories for all but a couple-three of Brady's 18 seasons (including both "Guge years", as it turns out). IOW, in most seasons, the Pats have already regularly been where the SAINTS JUST GOT TO, in terms of relative ground game effectiveness.

For an opponent-specific game-planning offense, arbitrarily running the ball more to reduce Brady's pass attempts seems insane. UNLESS the Pats somehow make the ground game dramatically better, it simply doesn't work.

So, then,, how do you make a ground game that's already top-10/top-5 in most seasons "dramatically better"?

 

[Hyped]

Maybe depends on what you mean by "running it a lot more".

Since about 2007, the league average pass attempt:run attempt ratio has risen to just under 57% passing.

Pats' Pass attempt % by year:

YEAR PASS%
2017 55%
2016 53% (Brady missed first four games)
2015 62% (horrible OL and RB injury rates, + Guge coaching)
2014 58%
2013 57%
2012 55%
2011 58%
2010 53%
2009 56%
2008 51% (Cassell year)
2007 57%
2006 51%
2005 56%
2004 48%
2003 53%
2002 61%
2001 50%

By "running it a lot more", I wasn't thinking 2001 with Smith, 2004 with Dillion, or 2006 sans receivers, and 2008 with Cassell….all of which were 51% or less.

I was thinking something along the lines of 3-4 less passing attempts per game..which would be 64 attempts a year. That or passing more to "set up the run".

 

[maineman209]

By "running it a lot more", I wasn't thinking 2001 with Smith, 2004 with Dillion, or 2006 sans receivers, and 2008 with Cassell….all of which were 51% or less.

I was thinking something along the lines of 3-4 less passing attempts per game..which would be 64 attempts a year. That or passing more to "set up the run".

I understand. But being arbitrary about it/forcing it for the sake of preserving Brady risks losing games. If the Pats have the horses and the opportunity is there in a given situation, you take it. But essentially putting Brady on a "pitch count" by arbitrarily taking the ball out of his hands simply isn't wise.

 

[Simpelton]

So, then,, how do you make a ground game that's already top-10/top-5 in most seasons "dramatically better"?

Well if we consider Belichick's recent decisions on the talent front, we can see his answer -- by giving a massive talent boost to the offensive line.

You absolutely can leverage improvement even for a top 10 run game just by getting top of the line blockers.

The Patriots run blocking game is how we take middling talents on the run, and turn it into a solidly productive running attack. A good offensive line is the backbone of the run as well as the pass and no one knows that better than BB.

We've made improvements to our run blocking in recent years with the addition of Mason and now the drafting of Wynn. Develin is one of the best blocking fullbacks in the NFL. Gronk is actually a very powerful run blocker as well when we don't need him to be the cornerstone of the passing offense, although I'd definitely rather see another blocking TE playng that role to spare Gronk's knees and back. This is probably exactly why Dwayne Allen is here.

Point is, while run blocking was always something BB cared about, he's made it much more of an obvious focus over the last 18 months, and it's clear to me that that's how BB plans on improving the run attack

 

[Hyped]

I understand. But being arbitrary about it/forcing it for the sake of preserving Brady risks losing games. If the Pats have the horses and the opportunity is there in a given situation, you take it. But essentially putting Brady on a "pitch count" by arbitrarily taking the ball out of his hands simply isn't wise.

Not looking at it from a "preserving Brady" POV, looking at it from an "utilizing our weapons" POV. I think with Develin, Mason, Cannon, Gronk, and Allen on the roster along with Michel, Hill, Burkhead, and White....we should be trying to use those weapons. We see so many sub packages nowadays that a 3rd corner/safety is practically a starter. I say run em' over a little more....

 

[Dragda]

Amendola was a classic possession receiver. We don’t really have that right now, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare.

 

[mcmurtry86]

Amendola was a classic possession receiver. We don’t really have that right now, but it’s not like the cupboard is bare.

Well Hogan, 2 first round busts who even on their best days aren't possession receivers and 2 garbage waiver wire pickups is pretty close to a bare cupboard until Edelman gets back. Even then, it's pretty empty as far as chain moving WR go

 

[bormio]

Well Hogan, 2 first round busts who even on their best days aren't possession receivers and 2 garbage waiver wire pickups is pretty close to a bare cupboard until Edelman gets back. Even then, it's pretty empty as far as chain moving WR go

Edelman has been the classic chain-moving receiver. Whether he will continue to be is to be determined.

 

[scott99]

Amendola will be tough to replace. Incredibly reliable and clutch, especially in the playoffs. That being said, I think after game 4, Edelman will be the man, with possibly Dorsett picking up the slack. I think the first 4 games, Hogan and Patterson will be the outside receivers with Dorsett in the slot. White, Burkhead or Michel (if ready) out of the backfield, and Gronk & Hollister playing big roles as well. We have plenty of weapons in until Edelman comes back. If we go 4 Wr set, whoever picks up the offense faster between Hansen and Darboh will be WR 4.

I miss Amendola, but as stated by Biffins, we always seem to feel a guy is irreplaceable, yet someone always comes along. Brown to Branch to Welker to Edelman to ? Amendola is replaceable too.

I have a feeling about Hansen. Had a monster year at Cal before he came out. Loved the signing of him and Darboh, two big productive college receivers. Hopefully one or both of these guy pick up the offense fast.

 

[maineman209]

Well if we consider Belichick's recent decisions on the talent front, we can see his answer -- by giving a massive talent boost to the offensive line.

You absolutely can leverage improvement even for a top 10 run game just by getting top of the line blockers.

The Patriots run blocking game is how we take middling talents on the run, and turn it into a solidly productive running attack. A good offensive line is the backbone of the run as well as the pass and no one knows that better than BB.

We've made improvements to our run blocking in recent years with the addition of Mason and now the drafting of Wynn. Develin is one of the best blocking fullbacks in the NFL. Gronk is actually a very powerful run blocker as well when we don't need him to be the cornerstone of the passing offense, although I'd definitely rather see another blocking TE playing that role to spare Gronk's knees and back. This is probably exactly why Dwayne Allen is here.

Point is, while run blocking was always something BB cared about, he's made it much more of an obvious focus over the last 18 months, and it's clear to me that that's how BB plans on improving the run attack

While I agree with most of what you wrote, I'm not on board with your interpretation that recent moves with OL personnel represent some new initiative to dramatically improve the ground game with a recent "massive talent boost".

Scar - and it has been almost entirely Scar - has always selected OL prospects (and FA veterans) whose run-blocking was very strong, and then worked to improve their sometimes weak pass-blocking. This has been partly due to the circumstance of having to sift through "2nd-tier talent" due to the Pats perennial drafting position - they typically haven't gotten a shot at college OL who excel at both.

However, it's worked out well due to Brady's elite abilities to (1) move in the pocket, and (2) get the ball out of his hands very quickly.

WRT recency, Gronk joined the team in 2010, Cannon (5th round) in 2011, Develin (FA) in 2012. Andrews (UDFA) and Mason (4th round) have been starters since 2015. Thuney (3rd round) has been starting since 2016. All three ultimately replaced players who that Pats had hung onto for a long time.

Allen, acquired in 2017, replaced Bennett's blocking. Bennett had replaced Chandler who had replaced Hooman, who was with the Pats for 3+ seasons.

The selection of Wynn in 2018 was partly a matter of lucky timing - getting the extra 1st-rounder for Cooks and then Wynn unexpectedly falling to the Pats, probably due in part to the concern of other teams about Wynn's lack of height.

The selection of Sony Michel was very much a parallel to the selection of Gronk - an exceptional and versatile talent with an injury history. Gronk's versatility is, of course, his receiving ability in addition to his blocking ability.

Michel's versatility is his rushing plus receiving - which fits with the direction that BB talked about after the end of the 2016 season (expressing his dissatisfaction with having one RB who could runv ery well, but not catch, and another who could catch very well, but who was not a very good runner). The 2017 addition of Burkhead was the first step toward reconfiguring the RBBC along those lines (and not the first time that BB has attempted to do so). IOW, the selection of Michel wasn't about running the ball more, or better. It was about maintaining a higher level of run-pass unpredictability.

 

[maineman209]

Not looking at it from a "preserving Brady" POV, looking at it from an "utilizing our weapons" POV. I think with Develin, Mason, Cannon, Gronk, and Allen on the roster along with Michel, Hill, Burkhead, and White....we should be trying to use those weapons. We see so many sub packages nowadays that a 3rd corner/safety is practically a starter. I say run em' over a little more....

It seem to me that Burkhead and (now) Michel have been added to White to enhance the offense's run-pass unpredictability, not simply to "run more".

 

[DarrylS]

I know this is sacrilegious but thought Sony Michel was an early step to prepare for life Post Brady, my thought on #12's successor are realistic and what have and will see will be something much different in the future..

Michel also gives the Pats another receiving threat considering our lack of WR's, hope Darboh and Hansen catch on, but need to be realistic about their ability to learn this offense and all of its subtleties after missing OTA's and TC..

Back to the question at hand regarding the Amendola Role, not sure there will be another WR in that role as BB and his crew have retooled the offense before and will do it again, if the Amendola Role means a clutch receiver who comes up big that rests solely on whatever receiver decides to step up...

 

[PP2]

It seem to me that Burkhead and (now) Michel have been added to White to enhance the offense's run-pass unpredictability, not simply to "run more".

I wonder if that's why we've been seen plenty of the pony formation in the PS.

 

[maineman209]

I wonder if that's why we've been seen plenty of the pony formation in the PS.

I have a feeling that we're going to see a lot of very effective deception out of the Pats offense this season.