Discussion in 'NFL Football Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Jan 19, 2020.
How many sims did you run?
I’ve already placed my wager early for SF on the moneyline +112. I began to second guess myself as the week wore on, so I figured that I should get it in before I changed my mind.
Seems like betting right after the conference championship is the best way to go. You see the teams that day. Next two weeks is all hype and exaggerations. SF should be favored...that said I don’t know if even the most confident bettor could think they have more than a 65% chance of being right on either team in this game.
Found this whatifsports simulation lol
WhatIfSports.com: Fantasy Sports Simulation -- Football Boxscore
I really only sim a match up one time and that's it, but I guess I could do it again.
I would've bet $100 on Niners, but the state I just moved to doesn't do online betting and the closest casino that does sports betting is at least a 2 hour drive.
This is probably true to a big extent - yet the ratings will be lower than Patriots Super Bowls, much like the conference championship games.
Very good article in The Athletic on Shanahan's remarkable football brain:
Kyle Shanahan's ability to predict defensive reactions...
The 49ers are not going to win.
Because good pitching negates good hitting.
Good QBs negate good Defense. See Tom Brady vs the Seahawks defense in the Super Bowl. Is Mahomes Brady? No, but he is good enough to move the ball via the air on SF. Its Andy Reid's year for dreaming up offensive plays to confuse defenses. If you have to stop and think about something youve never seen on defense, its good night Irene.
I expect KC to play ahead in the score and at some point place the onus on Jimmy to win it for the 49ers. He wont.
SF Sherman is old and a big mouth living in the was. Watch him get torched.
SF Coleman is playing after dislocating his elbow. Recipe for a fumble using a RB with a bad arm.
I don’t think they’re going to win either. Their style of play in the back end, a ton of zone coverage, does not match up well against the Chiefs. They can play man but Sherman is not a man to man cover corner. They’d be a fish out of water. Their lone hope is to plant Mahomes on his ass early and often but he’ll be getting the ball out of his hands quickly while carving up the zone. Terrible match-up for the 49ers. Chiefs by two scores. Hope I’m wrong.
Anyone know any good places in Cary, NC to watch the game?
That was definitely the case in last year's SB. Wait, whut?
Most breakdowns I’ve see go something like this:
The Chiefs offense will tear the 49ers defense a new ahole because of their zone coverage, though that pass rush may disrupt Mahomes fairly often. What “disrupt” means and if it will actually stop him is the big question.
The 49ers will tear the Chiefs defense a new ahole because Chiefs linebackers suck, which is the key position on this outside zone run, and there isn’t much you can do about it. 29th ranked run defense; dead last against runs with pre-snap motioning.
Then concludes that either the Chiefs will win because Mahomes gives them that edge of being better in this type of high scoring affair, or the 49ers win because their pass rush gets home a few more times than the Chiefs.
Then the comment by @The Brandon Five points out that last year was supposed to be a sure-fire shootout, track meet.
@robertweathers I haven't been in a few years but I went to Woodys on Chapel Hill Rd a couple of times and I had no complaints. Decent grub (wings a specialty - didn't try 'em) and a good-sized beer selection. It was really busy once - Saturday College Football.
There are a few BWWs in the area...
The entire city of Philadelphia is rooting for Andy Reid and the Chefs. Those nice good sporting Eagles fans now that they have "their" title that they stole from us are pulling for Andy. That should be reason enough for Patriots Nation to pull for the Niners and Jimmy G. That and the game the league stole from us this season. Maybe the fix is in.
Inside Andy Reid's life of tall tales: Tighty-whities, 40-ounce steaks and more
Tough prediction...but i think it is Kc year...
From another thread ...
This is an unbelievable matchup. SF has been a top 3, best team in the league all year. Very balanced on both sides. Each unit can all upon various strengths to win a matchup/game.
SF & Balt put on an absolute clinic this year running the ball. Some great team football. Their OL deserve a ton of credit. The footwork on intial steps to create misstep/read. The bullying off the ball. Athleticism cutting off angles & players. Everything looks the same or you'll play it one way before realizing your guy is 15 yards behind you. And it's all built off the outside zone run. Staying tight with 8 in the box is great if your opponent is hammering inside but SF is running off the Tackles, sometimes TE hip outside. Stacking & playing tight might not work if you dont have athletes at the LB position. KC doesn't. Then SF will hit with inside or windback (basically a counter zone run) and you're running sideways away from the ball.
I think the 2nd/3rd level defenders are the key to this game in many ways. Jimmy still struggles with seeing & manipulating LBs at times so his game really meshes well off that run game. The PA/rollouts really play well off that stuff and Jimmy is an athlete that can make it work. SF has been ruining LBs all year and esp the past two weeks. They look helpless and again KC doesn't exactly have big time athletes there so it easily happen again. You need smart players that can read quickly decipher how to handle what see in front of them. Sure you want to flow but some of these OL'm are so good and so quick they're on you (2nd level) before you can move so knifing, penetrating that wave might be the play. Again it's not your everyday running game.
On the other side Mahomes loves the mof so you probably want to try to take that away as best as possible. Their front 4/DL is great and easily could have a day. They're that good but I'm betting Reid's experience & Mahomes athleticism has the potential to stifle their attack just enough or all together with scheme and again Mahomes ability to move. He's one of the best at creating off script so again the 2nd/3rd levels are key imo. I always say talent > scheme and this is a great example of what I mean. There is no scheme to stop Mahomes or KC. You simply need guys to cover and make enough plays in the back end to survive.
You play zone they'll throw scheme right back at you with Reid's playbook. And most teams can't keep up with the athletes, not to mention all the option/motion they can throw at you to play man. You have to mix it up with your pass rush and simply make plays. 3rd level stays tight to their man so they can get a hand on the ball if possible. 2nd level doesn't open up lanes, give up easy leverage. Front gets pressure and preferably finishes.
I'm pumped could be a great game. Hoping, want SF but think KC ultimately wins. More hopeful about SF recently though after watching them again.
Expanding a bit ...
Again talent > scheme but this game will have a ton of both. Scheme matters, is most cases, esp when talent is close but players have to make a/the play.
Chiefs are a menace to defend when they come out from 3x1. Dagger, deep over with Hill. 49ers adjust & will use some man match while in their 3/6 shell. Those adjustments will go a long way in this game. Have to identity, stay or carry in a half second bc of KCs speed.
SF has mix it up and again they have been playing more man/man match within their 3/6 shell. It's all based on formation/alignments so again they'll be making split second adjustments vs the fastest team in the league.
Play zone Andy will scheme you, kill you with motion/rpo, slant/flat-slant/curl. Man and you're in a race half the game.
You have call your coverage & pass rush together with a nice mix to get Mahomes before he zips it from the pocket or uses his legs to create. I wouldn't be surprised if SF has some type of delayed blitz/spy just for that.
I'm really interested in how they attack each other from the get-go & in game. Big time players all over. 49ers have Alexander/Warner, to of the more athletic guys in their respected positions. So I'm sure they're hoping to eliminate some of easy Kelce conversations in the mof.
Hopefully we get a special matchup. Definitely has the potential.
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