Spotting some early free agency trends

[broadwayjoe]

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&id=2767986

Looks like he got the Lance Briggs one right and I will have to see it to believe it about the Redskins changing their strategy.

 

[Digger44]

Dear Mr. Clayton,

First of all let me say that I cannot stand you or your biased reporting that is ridiculous. Second, I would liketo know how the heck you see early free agency trends when free agency has not even started yet? Franchising in February is effect free agents, but it is a normal function every year, not a trend. Thank you for once again creating news instead of reporting it.

Hatefully not yours,
A Patriots (Not Colts) Fan

 

[JoeSixPat]

The most important trend is the franchise tag - used to be hardly any teams used it.

Now, though no one wanted to really be the first, watch the floodgates open.

Unfortunately, while this helps us with Samuel, its also going to limit the top players hitting the market - this in a year when we have $30 mil in cap space -

though it could pave the way for some more trades as franchise tags often do - and here the Pats could be players - in a much more controlled environment no less, as opposed to crazy bidding wars

The new June 1st cut rule that basically encourages teams to trade players rather than cut them is good news too I think as it gives both teams involved opportunities to gain something in return for players they don't want.

Not that it's always going to make a big difference - a la Sullivan - but its fun nonetheless.

 

[solman]

Unfortunately, while this helps us with Samuel, its also going to limit the top players hitting the market - this in a year when we have $30 mil in cap space

1. Seems like we're down to $18M in cap space. That only leaves us with enough room for one big name free agent acquisition, then maybe some minor moves, extensions, signing the draft picks, and having some left over for mid season emergencies.

2. Although each franchise tag affects the supply demand equation, the only potential tagee that I see the Patriots going after is the Raven's Adalius Thomas. Any other team would put the franchise tag on him, but the Ravens are in serious cap trouble. I'm betting that for this reason alone, we get to take a shot at him (Although I don't think we get him unless he accepts a small salary discoount as the price for going to a likely superbowl team).

 

[SoonerPatriot]

Dear Mr. Clayton,

First of all let me say that I cannot stand you or your biased reporting that is ridiculous. Second, I would liketo know how the heck you see early free agency trends when free agency has not even started yet? Franchising in February is effect free agents, but it is a normal function every year, not a trend. Thank you for once again creating news instead of reporting it.

Hatefully not yours,
A Patriots (Not Colts) Fan

In the future, please address Clayton by his new name: Mr. Peepers.

 

[upstater1]

1. Seems like we're down to $18M in cap space. That only leaves us with enough room for one big name free agent acquisition, then maybe some minor moves, extensions, signing the draft picks, and having some left over for mid season emergencies.

2. Although each franchise tag affects the supply demand equation, the only potential tagee that I see the Patriots going after is the Raven's Adalius Thomas. Any other team would put the franchise tag on him, but the Ravens are in serious cap trouble. I'm betting that for this reason alone, we get to take a shot at him (Although I don't think we get him unless he accepts a small salary discoount as the price for going to a likely superbowl team).

Not necessarily. You have to account for the fact that Brady's salary # is higher this year than in other years. So, if you sign a second FA, you can sign them to a lower salary this year and then give them a higher salary next.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

1. Seems like we're down to $18M in cap space. That only leaves us with enough room for one big name free agent acquisition, then maybe some minor moves, extensions, signing the draft picks, and having some left over for mid season emergencies.

I presume you're looking at Miguel's excellent pages. The reason for the sudden drop is the $7.8M salary hit associated with the franchise tag.

 

[everlong]

In the future, please address Clayton by his new name: Mr. Peepers.

I call him Mr. Garrison, OK?

 

[everlong]

Unfortunately, while this helps us with Samuel, its also going to limit the top players hitting the market - this in a year when we have $30 mil in cap space -

The Pats are likely to sit out the crazy period and not over pay for any of the huge names. Then they'll pick up mid tier guys like Polk or Johnson to add some depth and youth to the LB. Let's say they sign Samuel and pick up a couple of guys like that and they still have 15M in cap space, all those deals would be spread out with the lower cap hits happening this year unless they give somebody like Samuel a roster bonus vs a signing bonus so that it'll count more towards this year, which isn't a bad move. Then they could give somebody like Warren a two year extension.

If they gave Warren a 7M roster bonus and then extended him two years and both of those years were at 3.5M/year it wouldn't be a bad deal for either. Warren gets 7M now which is a nice piece of financial security. The Pats get him for 2 extra years at 7M/year total but they would keep their core together that much longer at a good price and his cap hit in those future years is only 3.5M. 7M/year for Warren will be cheap come that time and 2/14 with 7 up front makes everybody happy.

People might debate the numbers but it makes sense over all and gives the Pats lots of options.

 

[solman]

I presume you're looking at Miguel's excellent pages. The reason for the sudden drop is the $7.8M salary hit associated with the franchise tag.

Miguel's pages are trully excellent, but obviously I did the math on my own. Otherwise I would have used his presumptively more accurate number of $19M in cap space.

 

[Digger44]

In the future, please address Clayton by his new name: Mr. Peepers.

Maybe more like Mr. Poopers.