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http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-draft-shell-game/
http://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics
The Vox article was linked in the Grantland article but both are worthy of reading.
Interestingly, in Barnwell's recap of best trades for value, the Patriots finish 5th. The team finishing 3rd was the Minnesota Vikings, who may have learned a thing or two from Belichick from the last deal we made with them.
I thought Barnwell sums it up really well at the beginning:
http://www.vox.com/2015/4/30/8516007/nfl-draft-economics
The Vox article was linked in the Grantland article but both are worthy of reading.
Interestingly, in Barnwell's recap of best trades for value, the Patriots finish 5th. The team finishing 3rd was the Minnesota Vikings, who may have learned a thing or two from Belichick from the last deal we made with them.
I thought Barnwell sums it up really well at the beginning:
For 362 days each year, NFL teams hoard their draft picks while privately and publicly preaching that they are irreplaceable foundational assets. Then, on the other three days, those same organizations abandon those principles to move up and target the player of their desires.
That’s part of the weird psychology when teams use multiple picks to trade up during the NFL draft. The classic argument you hear from teams after a trade relates to their board; a team that moves up into the bottom of the second round will invariably say it had a first-round grade on the guy, which justifies the move. To them, sure. At the same time, it’s a trade for a player who the rest of the league clearly doesn’t value at that same first-round level; you’re basically betting that your front office is smarter than the rest of the league.
I think that's a really good point. Teams are stingy with draft picks in player trades. Randy Moss should be worth more than the 4th we gave up for him, or the 3rd we got back for him. But then Detroit trades their 2016 3rd for a mid-round 4th. The Eagles traded a 5th for Darren Sproles, which was amazing. The Eagles also traded a 5th and drop 45 spots on their other 5th to the 6th just to move up 5 spots in the 2nd round. How can those be valued similarly with draft capital?That’s part of the weird psychology when teams use multiple picks to trade up during the NFL draft. The classic argument you hear from teams after a trade relates to their board; a team that moves up into the bottom of the second round will invariably say it had a first-round grade on the guy, which justifies the move. To them, sure. At the same time, it’s a trade for a player who the rest of the league clearly doesn’t value at that same first-round level; you’re basically betting that your front office is smarter than the rest of the league.












