So how do you like our chances?

[BobDigital]

By now many fans have gotten the chance to learn a good amount about the Falcons. We will learn more in the days to come but we got a lot of information already. How confident are you feeling?

Football Outsiders has us at 58.6% to win compared to Atlanta's 41.4%.

That fits about where I am at. I wold say right now from what I have learned I think the Pats have a 60% chance to win and my score prediction as of now is 34 Pats to 27 Falcons

I don't think Atlanta slows us down enough. I don't see them stopping us in the red zone . I think our ability to limit their YAC will slow their offense down more than they think and Ryan will have to press and make a mistake or 2 as we run and control the ball. This game will go fast with a good amount of runs and the Pats doing a lot of hurry up to tire out the pass rush which is key. I think after the 1st half the Pats really start to take what will at that point be a very close game over.

 

[Dr Pain]

I think it is more like 75% chance Patriots win. Can their defense hold the Patriots to less than 30. I say no and I think that is what will be needed to win for the Falcons.

 

[WHPats]

I completely agree with your assessment. They're a good team but we're the better team in my opinion. Their offense is going to have to be absolutely phenomenal to beat us and I think our D can do enough to slow them down. BB and Patricia are just too smart. We're the more balanced team and I think as long as we take care of the ball and play the way we can. we'll do real well!

 

[SalemPats]

I feel like out of Atl, GB, Dal, Sea this was the best matchup.

Atlanta's defense is suspect and our O-Line should dominate their D-Line giving Brady a lot of space.

I feel like we match up well with their WRs and Ryan is no Rodgers or has that Dallas O-Line and will turn the ball over.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

The analytic side of me agrees with you and FO, but for some reason I feel way more sure.

 

[farn]

Better than half, but hardly as confident as others on here. Every SB in the BB era has been tight and exciting. FGs/INTs/Crazy catches... so I guess I'd expect more if the same this season.

 

[patchick]

I feel great about this team. I think they're clearly the more complete team, and they generally match up well with Atlanta.

BUT:

It's the Superbowl. In that one game, with its weird rhythms, anything can happen. So I can't say I'm confident.

 

[deroc5050]

Without stating any of the obvious reasons that could derail us from a Super Bowl win. If both teams play there A game, I think the Pats win by 7.

I can see like a 38-31 type of game.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

I'm a pessimist to the extreme. In general, not specifically for this game. That side of me sees the defense being exposed and the OL being iffy here and there enough to stop enough drives to lose.

That said, Bill and Matty P. know their stuff enough to slow this Atlanta offense down and the YAC numbers on both sides for both teams are encouraging. We are a far more experienced team (players and coaches) and the HC and QB have, almost literally, seen everything; they'll be so prepared. So I'm confident but, damn it, I'm a pessimistic at heart.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

i'm 90% sure we will win. only way to lose is to play really bad football.

 

[jboston19]

Atlanta is a good team and I think it'll be a good game. I wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy dose of Blount and a lower scoring game than expected.

 

[Tony2046]

Brady's already faced the Seattle type cover 3 defense but with better personnel. So has Edelman etc.... So I'm not worried about the offense scoring points.

NE seems to have a slight edge in special teams although not by much.

It's the defense that will have to slow Atlanta down and it will.

NE 34

ATL 23

 

[Nikolai]

Sticking with my original 31-23, but I could see the Pats opening it up a bit more.

The hardest part is getting away from the media hype about what the Falcons are, and I will admit that it's clouding my judgment a bit. We know our team, and our weaknesses, but it's hard to tell if my somewhat cartoonish depiction of Atlanta's imbalances is accurate. So while I say 31-23, I've got 60% confidence in that score.

So my range would look like this:

Pats:
24 - - - - - - 31 - - - - - - - - - - 41
Falcons:
17 - - - - - 23 - - - - - - - 31

Which is to say, the Falcons will need to score at least 25 to win, but they have to hold our offense to under 31. We will have to score at least 18, but since I don't see us scoring less than 24, I don't think that'll be a problem. Sure, there's a scenario where they win 31-24, but it would have to be a perfect game on their part.

Like others have said, I expect the Pats to run the ball more, which will keep the score lower than some people think, hence 31-23, rather than 41-31.

 

[The Brandon Five]

i'm 90% sure we will win. only way to lose is to play really bad football.

Not this team.

 

[nabwong]

I think we shut down Julio. If Atlanta wants to win, they'll have to win with their backs and ding their way down the field. I think shanahan will get impatient and make a mistake. Plus the goodell factor. I think our chances are 60-40.

 

[BobDigital]

I think it is more like 75% chance Patriots win. Can their defense hold the Patriots to less than 30. I say no and I think that is what will be needed to win for the Falcons.

The analytic side of me agrees with you and FO, but for some reason I feel way more sure.

I agree. Objectively I look at it and can't see us more or less than around 60%. But then these X factors come into play you can't put in it.

I just look at this Pats team and think they are the better team and focused. I don't think they will slip up. I look at the OIL and think they are due for a complete game. I look at how hot Ryan the Falcons have been on O and can't help but think like i did with Rodgers "they can't keep that up". Also I look at the coach and though he is a good coach I see more Tomlin than Harbaugh or Coughlin. He knows and likes his system but he seems too married to it and too much of an emotional leader than a mental one.

Just things like that I look at. I am not sure about it and maybe they don't matter. I think they might. If I include my X factor feeling I feel closer to 2 out of 3 but it is not right to include that cause it is guess work and not really measurable.

An Atlanta fan could name other X factors and I can't say they are wrong.

 

[Joey007]

I haven't felt this confident in the Super Bowl since 04.

 

[Haterproof]

Better than half, but hardly as confident as others on here. Every SB in the BB era has been tight and exciting. FGs/INTs/Crazy catches... so I guess I'd expect more if the same this season.

I'm praying to God that for once we can win a Superbowl that doesn't come down to the last 2 minutes!

 

[Nikolai]

I'm praying to God that for once we can win a Superbowl that doesn't come down to the last 2 minutes!

I would love a 49er-esque whitewashing for a change...have this ****er sealed up by the start of the third quarter.

That would be....GT...Guaranteed Tremendous

 

[Patriot Missile]

I like them just fine.

Ryan is starting his 8th playoff game
Brady is starting his 7th SuperBowl.
A slight edge in experience to Brady

This defense has been dominated a handful of times over the last 7 years without the offense responding in fashion to make it close.

New Orleans 10
Miami wildcat game
Cleveland corn bread Rb game
KC 14

Odds of this happening are extremely low when you combine those games against every loss or Victory in that time span.