Snow-delayed April Fool's Mock

[MaineMan]

Inspired by VJC's and Uncle Heatster's formidable opuses (opi?) that included extensive analysis, I decided Thursday evening to take my shot at it, too. And then, snow. Yeah. Shoveled another 6"-7" yesterday morning/afternoon. Water-logged stuff it was, too. Really thought we were done with this crap for the season. Anyway, the following is what I came up with during coffee breaks.

I should preface this by saying that I think this is a very weak QB class. Having done so, it'll probably turn out that 8 of them end up starting and doing fairly well. I'm also not hugely impressed by the OT class and I wouldn't begin to be able to predict which guy might fit which blocking scheme. This is all to explain the (no opinion) markers for selections below. Which, in turn, implies (correctly) that this is primarily, though not exclusively, a "needs-based" mock, rather than BPA (which seems to be what most everyone else does).

Here we go:

1. CAR - QB, GABBERT (sigh) - Maybe he's "safer" than Newton. Also, "new regime", no 2nd-rounder (whatever happened to Armanti Edwards?), yadda, yadda. IMVHO, they SHOULD take either Dareus or Fairley and replace one of their many JAG DTs with a guy who could be an All-Pro anchor on their D-line for the next six years. I mean, it hardly matters. Unless Gabbert or Clausen blows the doors off, the Panthers are going to be picking in the top five again next draft. And, if Clausen actually succeeds, they really didn't need a QB here anyway, did they?

2. DEN - OLB, VON MILLER - Yup, big need at DT. But they pick again at #36 and yet again at #46. The strength of the 4-3 DT class at #36? Probably pretty decent. The strength of 4-3 OLBs at #36? Ulp!

3. BUF - OLB34, KERRIGAN - Their 30-front of Dwan Edwards-Kyle Williams-Spencer Johnson/(Stroud) was not even close to being the worst part of their poor run-D or pass-rush last season. They had 238 TT and 11.5 sacks. In contrast, our best four had 120 TT and (throwing in Mike Wright's 5.5 to be charitable) 11 sacks. OTOH, their OLBs (aside from the much-loathed-in-BUF Kelsay) couldn't tackle anybody before they reached the secondary, and they got even less pressure than our guys (hard to imagine, right?). They could also go OT here (thereby avoiding the later rush) and still pick up a very good 34OLB at #34, but that would deprive me of the excuse to have them trade for the Pats' #28 to get back into the first round for their OT. So, I went with the "name brand" guy for them.

4. CIN - QB #2, (no opinion, see above) - So, Carson Palmer is selling his house: "... sits on five acres and also features a gourmet kitchen, 5 1/2 bathrooms, solarium, swimming pool, spa, golf green and pond." All for $2.1 million. OUR house sits on TEN acres, features a nifty microwave oven, 5 "cozy" bedrooms (two of which were once "closets"), 2 1/2 baths (counting the laundry room), lots of windows, an ocean a couple miles away, a very nice hot shower, and a river 100 yds from the front door. And it cost 95% less. It doesn't have a "golf green". In compensation for that lack, it's more than 1200 miles away from Cincituckey. On the off-chance that Palmer hasn't thrown his last INT for the Bungles, I'd guess they go AJ Green.

5. ARZ - DT, Dareus - Similar to the Panthers in that they'll probably be picking in the top five again next year when the QB class should be a bit stronger (it would almost HAVE to be, wouldn't it?). And they may well be doing so with a new coaching regime, anyway. They seem to have a lot of needs beyond QB and might want to trade down for extra picks. However, after about DAL at #9, teams would probably have to trade nearly their entire draft to give anything close to equal value - except for the Pats who could trade the #17 and #28 and still have seven picks including two 2nds. I still don't see BB doing this. -- Dareus is a wild guess. QB is obviously a big possibility and replacing the 66-year-old Porter/Haggans OLB combo has to happen sometime soon, but their interior D-line also still needs a serious upgrade, in spite of drafting Dan Williams last year.

6. CLE - WR, GREEN - You know your passing offense truly sucks when your two most productive pass-catchers are (1) Ben Watson and (2) Peyton Hillis and your 3rd best guy is in a dead heat with Chansi Stuckey. OTOH, it also means you don't have to draft a guy very high at all to get a WR upgrade. On the other side of the ball, pass-D, pass-rush and run-D all sucked, too. But then, you can probably improve on "Downtown" Sheldon Brown at #37. When you shift their front-7 roster around to cover them moving to the 4-3, it looks like the DE spot is the weakest, but they can easily improve that at #37, too. Jordan, Bowers, Peterson are all soooooo tempting here, but, yeah, Green.

7. SFO - CB, Peterson - Aww, Mom! Alex Smith for dinner AGAIN?! The real tragedy for this team (and Harbaugh) is that they'll probably suck again next season, but not quite bad enough to have a shot at drafting Andrew Luck. Maybe they can steal Shaun Hill back from DET? I mean, unless they see something miraculous in the #3 QB prospect in this draft (whoever that may be). Meanwhile, their run-D had at least the APPEARANCE of being decent last season while their pass-D was blatantly awful. And they can make some picks later at OC and RB in a vain attempt to build a better offense around Smith. -- Or, they can trade up with the Pats for #33 (that's called "foreshadowing") and snag a QB.

8. TEN - QB #3, (no opinion) - The question here is not what DO they need but what DON'T they need? TE, RB and ... that may be it. Unless they're pretty confident they can re-sign all their FAs (MLB Tulloch, DEs Babin, Ford and Ball), they COULD go for Jordan here. If they ARE confident all these guys are coming back, Jordan might not seem necessary. They seem thin at OLB behind McRath and Witherspoon, at SS behind Chris Hope, and OG might be a need. But those are all later round picks (as might be a quality backup for Tulloch). By taking a QB here, they may be signaling that (A) the VY Era is over and (B) Rusty Smith is not THE guy (though the Pats did take a long look at him last draft). -- They could also TRADE DOWN with either the Pats (for #17, 60 and 92) or SD (for #18, 61 and 89). Either might be looking to snag JJ WATT before the Cowboys pick. And, trading down might not cause the Titans to lose out on any particular target prospects to the intervening teams.

9. DAL - DE34, JJ WATT - Okay, Watt seems about perfect for the type of 34 the 'Boys have BEEN running, but who knows what Ryan really wants to do? Yes, yes, yes they do desperately need a CB. But I seriously question whether Amukamara would be as big an upgrade over Jenkins as Watt would be over Olshansky - and whether Williams or Harris at #40 wouldn't be as much an upgrade over Jenkins as Amukamara would be. Gotta go with the D-line here.

10. WAS - NT, PHIL TAYLOR - Yup, an Alualu-grade REACH that probably hinges on the Shakespearean question, "QB or not QB?" Maybe Shanahan feels that Grossman will be at least adequate for a couple years. Maybe he feels like the (at this point) 4th best QB in this class wouldn't be any more of an upgrade than the 4th best QB next year or a QB who's likely to be available this draft when they pick again at #41. And, I'm not saying that the Skins don't have a lot of other needs. But their lines were both generally the weakest and oldest parts of the team on both sides of the ball. It's not as if they're "set" at DE, but with Ma'ake Kemoeatu and Anthony Bryant, the D-line seems weakest at the keystone NT spot. The O-line seems weakest at OG, but that can be gotten later. So do they pass on Taylor in hopes of picking up Ellis or (maybe) Powe later? Are there a lot of other guys who seem like they'd be (relative) naturals for 34NT? With HOU, KC and PIT yet to pick in the first round do they take the risk? With no 3rd-rounder, they need to make an impact here and at #41. And, I got through that entire analysis without ONCE mentioning Haynesworth. Aww, crap.

11. HOU - OT #1, (no opinion) - SURPRISE! Re-arranging their front-7 roster for a 3-4, it actually looks like they have all they right-sized bodies they need to cover all the spots, at least for the moment. A 30-front of Smith-Shaun Cody-Williams seems like it could be pretty decent. Barwin/Cushing at OLB with Ryans/Diles in the middle could be a fine start for the transition, especially with all the other bodies they have in reserve. Yeah, their pass-D was awful, but, again, I don't know that Amukamara helps them any more than a guy they can pick up at #42. Meanwhile, Duane Brown really, really needs to kick inside to OG. Really.

[CONTINUED NEXT POST]

 

[MaineMan]

12. MIN - DT, Fairley - Yeah, I'm not exactly brimming with confidence over Joe "Just the facts" Webb or Rhett "Frankly, my dear" Bomar. But the same holds true (for me) for whoever would now be the 4th QB off the board out of this class. Also, whoever gets the starting QB spot is likely going to need someone in addition to Harvin, Shiancoe and Rice to throw to. And, yes, there's a risk they lose Ray Edwards to FA (whenever THAT may happen). However, they're nearly certain to begin losing the Williams Wall anchor of their run defense very soon. Pat will be 390 years old this season and Kevin, having given up his Starcaps appeal, might be missing for several games. Are Jimmy Kennedy, Fred Evans and Letroy Guion really even adequate replacements? So, for me it comes down to either Fairley, who might bring some of the interior pressure Kevin did as recently as 2009, or Wilkerson, who might be more of a Pat Williams-style anchor. They pick again at #43, but then not till #106, so they sorta have to get this one right. -- Sure, the Vikes might want to trade down to re-acquire their "lost" 3rd-rounder - but who with the ammo to do so would want to? DET & STL don't have a lot of extra picks, MIA is already missing a 2nd, JAX, NE, SD and the Giants may have no need, and for a team to trade up from further down it would probably cost a 2nd-rounder. That far down, would Minny still get a Williams Wall-worthy replacement DT out of the deal?

13. DET - CB, Amukamara - They really need an OT, but NOT because their pass-pro was so awful (among the 5 lowest in sacks-allowed per dropback in 2010, IIRC), but mostly because their run-blocking sucked and Backus is turning 33. However, they'd still likely get the second OT off the board by trading down as long as they stay ahead of the Giants at #19. And, they could use more picks. With Watt (and, okay, Phil Taylor) off the board, SDG and the Pats could well be competing for their choice among Jordan, Wilkerson and Heyward for 3-4 DE. -- BUT, this is the type of ownership/FO that just can't resist the temptation of taking the most-hyped player on the board with their 1st-rounder. And, even though their pass defense wasn't nearly as bad as their running offense, and though Amukamara may not help them as much as they think, and though the conservative approach of trading down for more picks and taking an OT would be much better for them, they'll find a way to rationalize this choice and try for an OT at #44.

14. STL - DE, QUINN - While their passing offense ended up in the mid-20s, Bradford is their franchise guy and he has a lot of good targets to throw to, IF they can stay healthy. Their ground game was actually a bit worse, perhaps because Jackson's backups weren't much. Their O-line was stable and, while perhaps not the best run-blocking unit and not having much good depth, it hardly seems like a 1st-round need. Defensively, they were 19th/17th respectively in yds allowed vs. the pass/run, but actually 7th/4th in TDs allowed. Their pass defense seems destined to deteriorate a bit after losing Atogwe to the Skins and Bartell could be upgraded, but would the (now) 3rd best CB or the best FS be 1st-round-worthy? Their LB corps was a continual scramble with guys getting hurt/underperforming and reserve DBs filling in, but their only LB (of NINE) with more than 2-years experience was Diggs, so there may be some hope yet. On the D-line, DEs Long and Hall (33) generated 19 of their 43 sacks with DT Fred Robbins (33) kicking in another 6. Gary Gibson, OTOH, didn't seem to do much of anything for them other than start all 16 games. Going with QUINN as a successor to Hall since it seems like they can get at least a Gibson-level replacement DT at #47. If anybody can help Quinn realize his potential, it might well be Spags.

15. MIA - RB, Ingram - Yeah. I know. The Fins passing game was mediocre at best and, of course, Henne gets most of the blame. Interestingly enough, their ground game was actually worse. It's not as if their O-line is particularly weak in either realm. As another poster (brilliantly) noted, Miami's scheme hasn't been particularly QB-friendly under Sparano. I'd add that his coaches haven't proven themselves to be the brightest bulbs on the Christmas tree, either (though they've been making possibly significant staff changes recently). But here's yet another team faced with the choice of taking the (now) 4th best QB out of this class or going another way. Miami has no 2nd-rounder and RB quality by the 3rd probably won't be anything close to Ingram's potential. I think they tie a knot with Henne and hang on for the ride.

16. JAX - DE, Jordan - I was trying to figure out what they're most desperately in need of for them to actually make this pick rather than trade down with a team that might want to jump ahead of the Pats. Their passing offense was worse than mediocre, although Garrard isn't really that bad when healthy, and he could certainly use another good WR. Their ground game was fine, at least from the time MJD's favorite O-linemen got healthy until he himself got dinged up (and Jennings was a pretty good replacement anyway). Their defense, OTOH, was pretty dreadful both ways. Aside from maybe SS Courtney Greene, there's not a whole lot to be proud of in the secondary. Their LB corps certainly seems far less than elite, but they're also relatively young. Both of these, though, could be just as well addressed at #49. Their DTs, Alualu and Knighton, seemed to come along just fine for how young they both are. OTOH, at DE, Kampmann was hurt (again), Derrick Harvey is looking like a bust and Jeremy Mincey (6th rd, Pats, 2006) might have been their best guy.

17. PATRIOTS - DE34, Heyward - So..... Now we're sitting here with just Wilkerson and Heyward still on the board among "premier" 34DE candidates. UNLESS, SDG has traded up ahead of us to get THEIR first choice of the two. AND UNLESS either NE or SDG has traded up ahead of DAL to get Watt. Obviously, I'm targeting 34DE as our MUST HAVE over everything else. So, what's the risk of trading down and missing both or our first choice of the two? At this point, fairly significant: SDG at #18, KC at #21, e.g. I think BB "gets his guy" (though you may disagree with the choice) and does his "fooling around" with the #28.

18. SDG - WR, Julio Jones - Even though Castillo and Cesaire are something less than studs at 34DE and the weakest part of their defense was allowing rushing TDs (20th), I really don't know how they get past the prospect that V-Jax, Naanee and Macolm Floyd could all be gone in FA, especially with Crayton (31) as their next best guy and Gates (30) getting older and having been injured. They pick twice in the 2nd (#50 and #61); seems like they should still be able to come up with something reasonable for the other positions at those picks.

19. NYG - OG, Pouncey - Aside from finding a way to keep their WR corps and O-line from filling up a hospital wing, the Giants seem to be able to use some help and/or youth at SAFETY, 4-3 OLB and OG/C (Seubert is 32, O'Hara is 33). Of those three, probably OG presents the most 1st-round value. They might also go OT, intending to kick someone inside to OG, but Pouncey seems tough to pass up with a few of the next teams having similar needs, including Philly. DT might seem a bit weak, also, but they're developing last year's 2nd rounder, Linval Joseph, and there will be other DTs available later.

20. TBY - CB, Smith - Pass-D was pretty good, especially considering the guys they lost along the way last season. They didn't miss Tanard Jackson until Cody Grimm went down. EJ Biggers did an unexpectedly decent job went Talib went down (though Talib now, apparently, has some legal "troubles"). Ronde Barber doesn't appear to be aging very fast (though that can't last). Run-D was pretty bad. McCoy and Roy Miller are both young DTs who seemed to do okay, but their DEs - Crowder and "Stylez" seem like JAGs (though who knows what late-rounders Moore and Lorig might develop into). On the offensive side, a young QB with young WRs sorta has to play itself out yet. Their patchwork O-line seemed ultimately to work. Blount could use a relief man better than Cadillac (and Freeman), though that can be had at #51 or later. Maybe this comes down to Bowers and his injury, or Houston/Aldon Smith if they're a better fit, or the next CB availble (for insurance).

21. KCY - WR, Hankerson - Yeah, the passing offense was abysmal. Cassel probably isn't their franchise QB, but it certainly didn't help him to have only Bowe, TE Moeaki and his star RB, Charles, able to actually get open and catch a pass. On the O-line, Weigmann is old (37). Waters is getting there (33) but still getting into the Pro Bowl. Good thing for them that their ground game worked so well. On the other side of the ball, pass-D was barely adequate. FS seems a possible weak point, otherwise it's hard to single out ONE reason why. Run-D was just slightly better. The weak point on the D-line might have been Ron Edwards, who just doesn't seem like anyone's franchise 34NT. Seems too early to draft Kenrick Ellis, though PIT could take a flyer at #31. Vrabel's production at LOLB seemed in decline, and yet none of their younger guys seemed able to dislodge him, so that's a possibility here, too.

[CONTINUED NEXT POST]

 

[MaineMan]

22. IND - OT #2, (no opinion) - OT seemed so obvious to me on the surface, I almost didn't bother to breakdown their roster in detail. When I did, I came up with a few interesting factoids. For one thing, the Colts had 18 different DBs on their roster at one time or another in 2010 (ouch!), including only 2 2nd-rounders but 8 UDFAs. In spite of that, their pass-D was actually a bit better than mid-pack. Their run-D, as usual, was in the bottom 3rd, with their DTs (a 2nd, a 5th, a 7th and 3 UDFAs) contributing very little to the effort, apparently. IIRC this was supposed to change dramatically when Larry Coyer replaced Ron Meeks at DC a couple years ago. Huh. Among the O-linemen on their roster were a 2nd, a 4th, two 5ths, a 6th, two 7ths and 3 UDFAs (they also traded their 2008 1st to take OT Tony Ugoh in the 2007 2nd round). As poorly as it may seem like they played, it didn't seem to bother Manning as much as having a brand-new WR corps every quarter. The ground game sucked, but was that due to the line or the RBs? Addai missed 8 games to serious injury and yet was still effectively their leading rusher. Dominic Rhodes appeared in 3 games and was effectively their 3rd leading rusher. Yikes! Well, Ryan Diem is getting older(32) and is apparently much-reviled among Colts fans, so I'm going OT after all (This would be OT #2 off the board, BTW). But I wouldn't be at all shocked to see them go with RB (Leshoure), TE (RUdolph), or DT (Wilkerson) or something else.


23. PHL - OT #3, (no opinion) - Tough call. Pass-D was mid-pack in yds allowed but 29th in TDs surrendered. No surprise that the bottom fell out when Samuels was hurt, though Patterson seemed okay replacing Hobbs. Still, seems a bit thin at CB. Run-D was also mid-pack. The middle of the line seemed soft, as did LDE (Parker), but that was also tackle-averse Asante Samuels' side, so who wouldn't run that direction? LB seemed okay, in spite of injuries. Passing offense was top 10; rushing offense was top 5. Was that in spite of the injury-riddled O-line? Or was the O-line not as bad as it seemed? Remember, this is the team that just moved their O-line coach to defensive coordinator and replaced him with Howard Mudd. So, a new OT as a wwlcoming present for Mudd? It's the Eagles - they'll just draft more of what they already seem to have a lot of. This is OT #3.

24. NOL - DE, Bowers - Interesting factoid: None of the regular starting O-linemen for the Saints are extremely tall. Heh. No surprise that the Saints passing game was top 5 (in spite of Brees' 22 INTs), or that their pass-D was top 5 (in spite of getting only 33 sacks). No real surprise that their ground game was poor with their injury situation (BTW, Pierre Thomas is apparently healthy and has patched things up with Coach Payton). Their run-D was mid pack. The interior line seemed soft, but they added Shaun Rogers, projected to start over Ayodele. OLBs Clark (33) and Shanle (31) are still productive, but getting older, though Dunbar seemed an okay replacement when Clark went down. DEs Smith and Brown seem okay, so they have time for Bowers to get over his injuries.

25. SEA - DE, Clayborn - Whatever we might think of their QB situation, a new QB (even Locker) isn't going to "save" this team. They still have serious interior O-line issues, using mostly recent cast-offs from other teams, that greatly contributed to their inability to run the ball or to protect Hasselbeck (or Whitehurst, for that matter). Their 2nd leading tackler on defense was 370-year-old SS Lawyer Milloy. Their pass-D and run-D pretty much sucked (though they did get one more sack than the Pats did). Their D-line situation is very similar to that of their O-line. They don't have a 3rd-round pick (Whitehurst), so they really have to hit on this one and #57. And they'll still probably have a much higher pick in the 2012 draft.

26. BAL - CB, Harris - They have only one WR who's not closer to collecting Social Security checks than to his college days - Marcus Smith. Exactly. This might at least partly explain why their passing game was below mid-pack. OTOH, their pass-D was slightly worse. A lot of that might have been due to injury, sure, but their DB corps isn't staffed with a lot of spring chickens either. Maybe more questions about the remaining WRs than about Aaron Williams or Brandon Harris, and they can still get younger at WR at #58. Harris for speed over size.

27. ATL - DE, Reed - They seem to have some pretty decent and relatively young talent in their secondary, yet their pass-D was below par. They also had just 31 sacks and 33-yr-old DE John Abraham had nearly half of them. Maybe Biermann is his designated successor, maybe not. Maybe they just switch to the 3-4 soon. Ryan could certainly use a fresh face (or two) to take some pressure off Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez is going to need replacing soon. Unless Dimitroff is in love with Torrey Smith or Kyle Rudolph, these can come later. Reed for speed and to keep their options open.


.......TRADE ALERT........ BUF trades the #34, #100 and #133 (actually less than the historical "premium" for such a trade) to NE for #28

$$ 28. BUF - OT #4, (no opinion) - Here's where the games really begin, IMHO. It comes down to what teams might want the #4 OT bad enough to trade up ahead of possibly CHI, the JETS, PIT, and GB. It also comes down to who has the "pick ammo" to barter with (excluding "at risk" trades into 2012). WRT QB, since ARZ at #38 is the next team in line likely looking for the #4 QB, the jockeying for draft position in that context more likely involves the #33. I'm going with the Bills here because, well, I conveniently set it up with their earlier pick of Kerrigan (heh, heh).

29. CHI - WR, Torrey Smith - Up to this point, I've been completely indiscriminate in matching up OTs to the teams who seem to need them. Though it probably should have happened earlier, at this point, which among the "Top Five" actually remains on the board might have an impact on which way the Bears go, positionally. Maybe. The Bears' O-line seems almost fatally weak in pass-pro. Aside from Chris Williams (1st, 2008) who's kicked inside to OG in favor of Omiyale (??), the Bear haven't invested much at all in the unit. Cutler was sacked on nearly 11% of dropbacks (probably about double NFL average), though some blame this on Martz's "scheme". Really? One would sorta think that a blocking scheme that risks QB safety would at least produce a strong ground game. But, no. Both the pass and run games were mediocre at best. Maybe it's the skill positions. This isn't exactly a top-tier WR corps. Forte floundered till the BYE, but DID improve after some "changes" were made at that point, at least when he got to the outside. Omiyale and rookie UDFA J'Marcus Webb might not be any great shakes, but a bigger weakness might have been up the middle with aging OG Garza and OC Kreutz. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the pass-D was 20th in yds allowed, but 2nd in TDs allowed while the run-D was 2nd in yds allowed, but 20th in TDs allowed. Former 1st round DT Tommie Harris is officially a bust, but Adamas and Toeaina seem okay though they don't get much QB pressure. The Peppers/Idonije combo seemed to work well, but they only got 34 sacks overall. Also, Urlacher (33), Briggs (31) and oft-injured Tinoisamoa (30) have maybe made the turn onto the back nine. Unless the FO is "over" the Chris Williams fiasco and in love with the #5 OT in this class, I think they simply try to make Cutler happier by giving him a new toy to play with.

30. JETS - OT #5, (no opinion) - Wow! They really DO have a cubic buttload of free agents among key players: 3 WRs (including elite KR Brad Smith), 3 guys in the secondary besides Cromartie, RT Wayne Hunter (the guy behind recently departed Damien Woody), LDE Shaun Ellis (who's 34 anyway), not to mention their punter and kicker. Hard to imagine that they won't have some serious holes when everything shakes out. Hard to know where to start WRT re-filling with the draft, espcially with no 2nd rounder. Would Ryan/Tannenbaum trade down for a high 2nd plus a couple other picks? When in doubt, go with the lines. OT seems very thin. Ellis may need replacing if Marcus Dixon isn't ready to step up. NT Pouha will be 32, but they could wait a year, I suppose, if they're not in love with Kenrick Ellis (an enormous reach, perhaps, but this would probably be their only shot at him). Jimmy Smith has the size and, apparently, the personality to replace Cromartie, but he's long gone. Wilkerson maybe has enough versatility for Ryan's line. But, then, after all, OT to protect the Sanchize and hope to strike some silver at least later.

 

[MaineMan]

31. PIT - DE, Wilkerson - This is an old, OLD front-7. Hampton, Farrior and Aaron Smith are all mid-30s; Keisel and Harrison are nearly there. On top of that, defensively, three of their regular CBs are FA. The other side of the ball is substantially more youthful, at least by comparison, with only Flo Adams and Hines Ward getting up there. And there's some youth behind both, as there is at LB. So, it's really the D-line. Ellis is still a big reach, no matter how old Hampton is.

-----------------
So. Here is where I can't delay any longer a discussion of (supposedly) "QB-needy teams" who have (in THIS mock) used their first pick elsewhere and of their respective ability to trade up (with the PATS, at least) in order to get ahead of other QB-needy teams and grab QB# 4. Also, this discussion may demonstrate where this mock goes very, VERY wrong. I don't think it does, but then, I'm biased. Here's the list, in draft order:
- ARZ #38
- WAS #41 (but no 3rd or 4th so, no trade up ammo for higher than #37 w/o using a 2012)
- MIN #43 (but with no 3rd, it would cost them their 2nd, 4th and a sixth at minimum to get to #33/34)
- SFO #45 (have plenty of ammo to work something out with the PATS for #33 - OR, with the PACKERS at #32)
- MIA - NO 2nd rounder, so moot point.
----------------------

32. GBY - XX, ******** - O-line issues? In spite of getting the ball out much quicker this season, Rodgers was still sacked on over 6% of his dropbacks. Not Cutler-level, but not good either. And the Packersseemed barely able to get the ball past the LoS on the ground most of the time, except for Rodgers' running (2nd leading rusher). LT Clifton will be 35; LG Colledge is a FA. Seems like the Pack might have wangled a trade up with the Pats for #28 and the #4 OT, too. Might have been worth the #32, 129 and 163 (or more). Otherwise, on the offensive side, they re-sign (or replace) James Jones and they're good to go. On the defensive side, they're drowning in LBs who all seem to have stepped up and performed well. And their secondary is all set. However, LDE Pickett turns 32, RDE Jenkins is FA and there's not a lot of 30-front DEs on the roster behind them. But, if thy're picking at #32, do they take Watkins (a reach, perhaps)? Make a big reach for a DE they hope can play 34 DE? Maybe even a bigger reach for OT #6? Or trade down with a QB-needy team and trump BB's strategy? In 2008, Thompson traded the #30 to the JETS for #36 and #113 (a slight discount, actually).

....... TRADE ALERT ..... GB trades #32 to SFO for #45, 108, 141 and 174.

$$ 32. SFO - QB #4, (no opinion)

_______ END ROUND ONE ________

33. PATRIOTS - XX, ******** - At this point, does any team still feel the need to trade up with the Pats to get QB#5? Does ARZ get spooked enough by the GBY-SFO trade to jump up for insurance? Yeah, I'm going there.

........ TRADE ALERT ..... NE trades #33 to ARZ for #38 + #103

$$ 33. ARZ - QB #5, (no opinion)

-- 34. PATRIOTS - RB, Mikel Leshoure - SURPRISE!

35. CIN - WR, Baldwin
36. DEN - DT, Marvin Austin
37. CLE - DE, Houston
-- 38. PATRIOTS - OT, Orlando Franklin - SURPRISE!!

Wild-guessing the rest of the PATS picks:
60. Acho - OLB
74. Carpenter OG/OT
92. QB (no opinion)
100. Buster Skrine CB
103. Barnes OC/OG
125. Cotez Allen CB/FS
133. Pettis WR
159. Anthony Sherman FB
189. David Carter DE34

 

[MaineMan]

Yes. I'm done now. The jeering may commence. BTW, I don't mind thrown tomatoes, but please refrain from using artichokes and unripe avocados.

 

[gomezcat]

Good stuff. I haven't read it in depth, but the tone made me smile and I don't think you're a million miles away. I have a sneaky suspicion that someone like Christian Ponder could end up being the star of this QB class in years to come- accurate, good decision maker, unflashy, intelligent... Of course, that depends a lot on his health.

I agree that some of the teams will take QBs too high in a weak QB class; it would take a brave GM, one with some REALLY good pics of his boss, to pass on QBs when they have a glaring need and no job security. We'll see.

The more I read about this draft, the less certain I become about it. There is no obvious #1, for example.

 

[Off The Grid]

Heh!! Possibly the most enjoyable play by play Mock Draft I've read!!

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Great effort. Snow in April is not always such a bad thing.

 

[patfanken]

Great writing. It was an enjoyable read. Unfortunately if those are our moves and picks, I'll be pretty upset. First, if Jordan and Quinn are there at 14 and 16 I'd be pissed that we didn't move to get them, As little as I want a WR in this draft,I'd be much happier with Julio Jones than Ironhead Jr. It would be a true waste of a rare pick out of the 20's to come away with a guy many have going in the early 2nd round.

I know everyone is in love with trading down after seeing the results of the last 2 years, but last year was a very deep draft and this year's isn't. I DON'T want to see us with multiple picks in 50-80 area

Get your OLB and DE BEFORE 33 and THEN take your long shots, I love the idea of red shirting guys like Carter and Romeus. I hope we take them BOTH. I love the idea of geting a small college guy like Kendrick. But I have my heart set on Quinn, Jordan, Watt or early. Watt is my binky today, but I'd be happy with any of them.

But if fell asleep at the draft and they all were gone, then Julio Jones would have a MUCH better shot at being an impact player than Ironhead JR

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Great writing. It was an enjoyable read. Unfortunately if those are our moves and picks, I'll be pretty upset. First, if Jordan and Quinn are there at 14 and 16 I'd be pissed that we didn't move to get them, As little as I want a WR in this draft,I'd be much happier with Julio Jones than Ironhead Jr. It would be a true waste of a rare pick out of the 20's to come away with a guy many have going in the early 2nd round.

I know everyone is in love with trading down after seeing the results of the last 2 years, but last year was a very deep draft and this year's isn't. I DON'T want to see us with multiple picks in 50-80 area

Get your OLB and DE BEFORE 33 and THEN take your long shots, I love the idea of red shirting guys like Carter and Romeus. I hope we take them BOTH. I love the idea of geting a small college guy like Kendrick. But I have my heart set on Quinn, Jordan, Watt or early. Watt is my binky today, but I'd be happy with any of them.

But if fell asleep at the draft and they all were gone, then Julio Jones would have a MUCH better shot at being an impact player than Ironhead JR

I think the draft class itself is reasonably deep in several areas, it's just the top of the class which is lacking.

 

[bucky]

I think the draft class itself is reasonably deep in several areas, it's just the top of the class which is lacking.

Well there's some depth at OT and DL, but it's going to go quickly because so many positions are so very weak (TE, S, WR, ILB, C) and others are average at best (G, CB, RB, OLB).

 

[West Philly Patriot]

12. MIN - DT, Fairley - Yeah, I'm not exactly brimming with confidence over Joe "Just the facts" Webb or Rhett "Frankly, my dear" Bomar. But the same holds true (for me) for whoever would now be the 4th QB off the board out of this class. Also, whoever gets the starting QB spot is likely going to need someone in addition to Harvin, Shiancoe and Rice to throw to. And, yes, there's a risk they lose Ray Edwards to FA (whenever THAT may happen). However, they're nearly certain to begin losing the Williams Wall anchor of their run defense very soon. Pat will be 390 years old this season and Kevin, having given up his Starcaps appeal, might be missing for several games. Are Jimmy Kennedy, Fred Evans and Letroy Guion really even adequate replacements? So, for me it comes down to either Fairley, who might bring some of the interior pressure Kevin did as recently as 2009, or Wilkerson, who might be more of a Pat Williams-style anchor. They pick again at #43, but then not till #106, so they sorta have to get this one right. -- Sure, the Vikes might want to trade down to re-acquire their "lost" 3rd-rounder - but who with the ammo to do so would want to? DET & STL don't have a lot of extra picks, MIA is already missing a 2nd, JAX, NE, SD and the Giants may have no need, and for a team to trade up from further down it would probably cost a 2nd-rounder. That far down, would Minny still get a Williams Wall-worthy replacement DT out of the deal?

13. DET - CB, Amukamara - They really need an OT, but NOT because their pass-pro was so awful (among the 5 lowest in sacks-allowed per dropback in 2010, IIRC), but mostly because their run-blocking sucked and Backus is turning 33. However, they'd still likely get the second OT off the board by trading down as long as they stay ahead of the Giants at #19. And, they could use more picks. With Watt (and, okay, Phil Taylor) off the board, SDG and the Pats could well be competing for their choice among Jordan, Wilkerson and Heyward for 3-4 DE. -- BUT, this is the type of ownership/FO that just can't resist the temptation of taking the most-hyped player on the board with their 1st-rounder. And, even though their pass defense wasn't nearly as bad as their running offense, and though Amukamara may not help them as much as they think, and though the conservative approach of trading down for more picks and taking an OT would be much better for them, they'll find a way to rationalize this choice and try for an OT at #44.

14. STL - DE, QUINN - While their passing offense ended up in the mid-20s, Bradford is their franchise guy and he has a lot of good targets to throw to, IF they can stay healthy. Their ground game was actually a bit worse, perhaps because Jackson's backups weren't much. Their O-line was stable and, while perhaps not the best run-blocking unit and not having much good depth, it hardly seems like a 1st-round need. Defensively, they were 19th/17th respectively in yds allowed vs. the pass/run, but actually 7th/4th in TDs allowed. Their pass defense seems destined to deteriorate a bit after losing Atogwe to the Skins and Bartell could be upgraded, but would the (now) 3rd best CB or the best FS be 1st-round-worthy? Their LB corps was a continual scramble with guys getting hurt/underperforming and reserve DBs filling in, but their only LB (of NINE) with more than 2-years experience was Diggs, so there may be some hope yet. On the D-line, DEs Long and Hall (33) generated 19 of their 43 sacks with DT Fred Robbins (33) kicking in another 6. Gary Gibson, OTOH, didn't seem to do much of anything for them other than start all 16 games. Going with QUINN as a successor to Hall since it seems like they can get at least a Gibson-level replacement DT at #47. If anybody can help Quinn realize his potential, it might well be Spags.

15. MIA - RB, Ingram - Yeah. I know. The Fins passing game was mediocre at best and, of course, Henne gets most of the blame. Interestingly enough, their ground game was actually worse. It's not as if their O-line is particularly weak in either realm. As another poster (brilliantly) noted, Miami's scheme hasn't been particularly QB-friendly under Sparano. I'd add that his coaches haven't proven themselves to be the brightest bulbs on the Christmas tree, either (though they've been making possibly significant staff changes recently). But here's yet another team faced with the choice of taking the (now) 4th best QB out of this class or going another way. Miami has no 2nd-rounder and RB quality by the 3rd probably won't be anything close to Ingram's potential. I think they tie a knot with Henne and hang on for the ride.

16. JAX - DE, Jordan - I was trying to figure out what they're most desperately in need of for them to actually make this pick rather than trade down with a team that might want to jump ahead of the Pats. Their passing offense was worse than mediocre, although Garrard isn't really that bad when healthy, and he could certainly use another good WR. Their ground game was fine, at least from the time MJD's favorite O-linemen got healthy until he himself got dinged up (and Jennings was a pretty good replacement anyway). Their defense, OTOH, was pretty dreadful both ways. Aside from maybe SS Courtney Greene, there's not a whole lot to be proud of in the secondary. Their LB corps certainly seems far less than elite, but they're also relatively young. Both of these, though, could be just as well addressed at #49. Their DTs, Alualu and Knighton, seemed to come along just fine for how young they both are. OTOH, at DE, Kampmann was hurt (again), Derrick Harvey is looking like a bust and Jeremy Mincey (6th rd, Pats, 2006) might have been their best guy.

17. PATRIOTS - DE34, Heyward - So..... Now we're sitting here with just Wilkerson and Heyward still on the board among "premier" 34DE candidates. UNLESS, SDG has traded up ahead of us to get THEIR first choice of the two. AND UNLESS either NE or SDG has traded up ahead of DAL to get Watt. Obviously, I'm targeting 34DE as our MUST HAVE over everything else. So, what's the risk of trading down and missing both or our first choice of the two? At this point, fairly significant: SDG at #18, KC at #21, e.g. I think BB "gets his guy" (though you may disagree with the choice) and does his "fooling around" with the #28.
18. SDG - WR, Julio Jones - Even though Castillo and Cesaire are something less than studs at 34DE and the weakest part of their defense was allowing rushing TDs (20th), I really don't know how they get past the prospect that V-Jax, Naanee and Macolm Floyd could all be gone in FA, especially with Crayton (31) as their next best guy and Gates (30) getting older and having been injured. They pick twice in the 2nd (#50 and #61); seems like they should still be able to come up with something reasonable for the other positions at those picks.

19. NYG - OG, Pouncey - Aside from finding a way to keep their WR corps and O-line from filling up a hospital wing, the Giants seem to be able to use some help and/or youth at SAFETY, 4-3 OLB and OG/C (Seubert is 32, O'Hara is 33). Of those three, probably OG presents the most 1st-round value. They might also go OT, intending to kick someone inside to OG, but Pouncey seems tough to pass up with a few of the next teams having similar needs, including Philly. DT might seem a bit weak, also, but they're developing last year's 2nd rounder, Linval Joseph, and there will be other DTs available later.

20. TBY - CB, Smith - Pass-D was pretty good, especially considering the guys they lost along the way last season. They didn't miss Tanard Jackson until Cody Grimm went down. EJ Biggers did an unexpectedly decent job went Talib went down (though Talib now, apparently, has some legal "troubles"). Ronde Barber doesn't appear to be aging very fast (though that can't last). Run-D was pretty bad. McCoy and Roy Miller are both young DTs who seemed to do okay, but their DEs - Crowder and "Stylez" seem like JAGs (though who knows what late-rounders Moore and Lorig might develop into). On the offensive side, a young QB with young WRs sorta has to play itself out yet. Their patchwork O-line seemed ultimately to work. Blount could use a relief man better than Cadillac (and Freeman), though that can be had at #51 or later. Maybe this comes down to Bowers and his injury, or Houston/Aldon Smith if they're a better fit, or the next CB availble (for insurance).

21. KCY - WR, Hankerson - Yeah, the passing offense was abysmal. Cassel probably isn't their franchise QB, but it certainly didn't help him to have only Bowe, TE Moeaki and his star RB, Charles, able to actually get open and catch a pass. On the O-line, Weigmann is old (37). Waters is getting there (33) but still getting into the Pro Bowl. Good thing for them that their ground game worked so well. On the other side of the ball, pass-D was barely adequate. FS seems a possible weak point, otherwise it's hard to single out ONE reason why. Run-D was just slightly better. The weak point on the D-line might have been Ron Edwards, who just doesn't seem like anyone's franchise 34NT. Seems too early to draft Kenrick Ellis, though PIT could take a flyer at #31. Vrabel's production at LOLB seemed in decline, and yet none of their younger guys seemed able to dislodge him, so that's a possibility here, too.

[CONTINUED NEXT POST]

 

[mgteich]

9 COWBOYS
I just don't see the Cowboys passing on Amukamara. He will indeed be a top corner.

14 RAMS
I don't see the Rams passing on Julio Jones for Quinn. As with the Cowqboys, their draft dream has come true. A top wide receiver is available.

PATS at 17 and 34
Heyward and LeShoure don't see to be value picks at these spots. With Jones on the board, we could trade down with KC at 21.

But wait, with Julio Jones on the board, we could draft Julio Jones and draft Heyward or Wilkerson at 28 or with a slight trade up.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

9 COWBOYS
I just don't see the Cowboys passing on Amukamara. He will indeed be a top corner.

14 RAMS
I don't see the Rams passing on Julio Jones for Quinn. As with the Cowqboys, their draft dream has come true. A top wide receiver is available.

PATS at 17 and 34
Heyward and LeShoure don't see to be value picks at these spots. With Jones on the board, we could trade down with KC at 21.

But wait, with Julio Jones on the board, we could draft Julio Jones and draft Heyward or Wilkerson at 28 or with a slight trade up.

That would be a dream scenario. But One, I don't think Jones will be on the board @ 17. Two, If we trade 28 I have a feeling its gonna be us leaving the 1st round with it. If we stand pat I don't think either of those guys will be around come #28.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well there's some depth at OT and DL, but it's going to go quickly because so many positions are so very weak (TE, S, WR, ILB, C) and others are average at best (G, CB, RB, OLB).

CB isn't that bad, neither is RB, OG, ILB, OC, or 4-3 OLB. DL is the strength of this draft, that includes 4-3 DE. OT is part of why OG isn't that bad, I look at kids like Carpenter and see a better OG than OT, though he can do both. I'm more inclined to take an OT later rather than earlier, I just think the early kids are inflated by need more than rising on talent.

 

[MaineMan]

CB isn't that bad, neither is RB, OG, ILB, OC, or 4-3 OLB. DL is the strength of this draft, that includes 4-3 DE. OT is part of why OG isn't that bad, I look at kids like Carpenter and see a better OG than OT, though he can do both. I'm more inclined to take an OT later rather than earlier, I just think the early kids are inflated by need more than rising on talent.

Yupperoonee.

 

[MaineMan]

9 COWBOYS
I just don't see the Cowboys passing on Amukamara. He will indeed be a top corner.

14 RAMS
I don't see the Rams passing on Julio Jones for Quinn. As with the Cowqboys, their draft dream has come true. A top wide receiver is available.

PATS at 17 and 34
Heyward and LeShoure don't see to be value picks at these spots. With Jones on the board, we could trade down with KC at 21.

But wait, with Julio Jones on the board, we could draft Julio Jones and draft Heyward or Wilkerson at 28 or with a slight trade up.

Well, WRT the other teams like STL and DAL, I focused on needs - not just 1st round BPA opportunities, but balancing first, second and third "need" priorities against their later round picks and what talent level may be available to them to satisfy other needs with those later picks.

For instance, let's say both Watt and Amukamara are rated 8.5 at their respective positions (with Watt as a 34DE). The 'Boys pick again at #40. Let's say Aaron Williams is rated a 7.0 and is likely to be available at #40. Is there likely to be a 34DE rated anywhere near that high available to them at #40. My guess is NO. So, I go with Watt at #9 and the hope that they can still get a CB who's better than Jenkins at #40 (which shouldn't be THAT difficult, really). Plus, (hypothetically) having a more productive RDE SHOULD help the pass defense some (at least that seems to be the prevailing theory around here).

Similar with STL. Yes, a WR of Jones' quality is highly desirable, based on BPA (which my exercise is NOT, as I stated). However, when everyone's healthy, they have a pretty good corps of relatively young pass-catchers, and they really need D-line help, too. So, the choice is to add a potentially elite WR to an already pretty good corps, or replace a JAG D-line starter with a potentially elite DE.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Similar with STL. Yes, a WR of Jones' quality is highly desirable, based on BPA (which my exercise is NOT, as I stated). However, when everyone's healthy, they have a pretty good corps of relatively young pass-catchers, and they really need D-line help, too. So, the choice is to add a potentially elite WR to an already pretty good corps, or replace a JAG D-line starter with a potentially elite DE.

So are you saying that it comes down to the relative impact the player will likely have?

 

[bucky]

CB isn't that bad, neither is RB, OG, ILB, OC, or 4-3 OLB. DL is the strength of this draft, that includes 4-3 DE. OT is part of why OG isn't that bad, I look at kids like Carpenter and see a better OG than OT, though he can do both. I'm more inclined to take an OT later rather than earlier, I just think the early kids are inflated by need more than rising on talent.

ILB - I think there may not be a single prospect that fits the Pats. Overall, I see 5-6 getting drafted in the first 4 rounds. That's weak.

C - I'm very down on this year's class. Pouncey and Wisnewski are the only 2 starting-caliber OCs in my opinion.

OT - I totally agree with you that the top 5 guys are overrated. There is no one IMO who is worth a top 15 pick. But there are about 8-10 guys who should go by the end of the 2nd round. If you count guys like Carpenter, Ijalana, Franklin, Pinkston as OGs, then OT is not that deep.

Any way you look at it, there is not enough depth at OL, DL and QB to overcome the shortcomings.

 

[MaineMan]

So are you saying that it comes down to the relative impact the player will likely have?

For that specific team given their current situation (and no FA to fall back on), sure. If I take your meaning correctly. A (potentially) elite DE perhaps has a greater and more immediate impact on the Rams' defense (which helps the offense in the long run), than another WR, even a (potentially) elite one, has on their offense directly. I mean, QUINN may not be the exact correct player for them, but the principle still holds. It's maybe adding 8.5 pts of talent to a key spot on a D-line that totals, say, 40 points, versus adding 8.5 pts worth of WR to a corps that may already be worth, say 52 pts. I'm exaggerating the differences maybe, but you get the point.

The contrast would be the Browns. They could use a DE just as much as STL perhaps with their 40 pt D-line, but they have NObody to catch passes from their young QB on a WR corps that might be worth 30 pts total. In that case, Green maybe helps their offense take off which, in turn, helps their defense. And, they can probably still upgrade their (new) 4-3 defense in later rounds - just not quite as much as they could in the first - and not NEARLY as much as adding Green to their WR corps upgrades their offense.

Hope this is still making sense. I may be having a low blood-sugar moment.