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Slow Day - Is Our Offense Better Or Worse Than Our Playoff Team?

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mgteich

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OUT: Solder, Fleming, Lewis, Amendola
IN: Tobin, Hill, Edelman, Mitchell, Patterson

For me, it is all about losing Solder and gaining Edelman.

If we draft a LT in the first 50, we may be better off than our playoff team.
 
The return of Rob Gronkowski is obviously the wildcard, here.

Losing a top 12-15 NFL left tackle, a clutch PR/3rd down guy and postseason hero, a RB who led the league in total yards from scrimmage down the stretch last winter, and a swing tackle with big game starting experience is huge.

Replacing them with the likes of Hill, Patterson, Tobin, and whatever unremarkable free agent signings on that side of the ball most certainly does not make them “better.” Having Edelman back will be big, as long as he’s his usual self. I still don’t see any scenarios where they’d be considered better than last year, though.
 
something to keep in mind, Mitchell had some HUGE catches in the atlanta superbowl. losing him last year wasn't exactly a small loss.

i think it really depends on the draft.
 
The only major loss was Nate Solder, it's not easy to find above average LTs through both the draft and free agency. Cannon is a great RT and I would just keep him there. Waddle is mediocre. Garcia lost so much weight and just got cleared of blood clots. Tobin is strictly a backup. This will be the biggest question mark of the Patriots offense.

There isn't a significant loss anywhere else. Losing Lewis sucks but since Stevan Ridley tore his ACL we went through long stretches of mediocre RB play until Lewis and honestly our offense wasn't that much worse. Lewis is a great RB but White, Burkhead, Hill are more than enough to make up the loss. We might draft a RB as well.
 
The return of Rob Gronkowski is obviously the wildcard, here.

Losing a top 12-15 NFL left tackle, a clutch PR/3rd down guy and postseason hero, a RB who led the league in total yards from scrimmage down the stretch last winter, and a swing tackle with big game starting experience is huge.

Replacing them with the likes of Hill, Patterson, Tobin, and whatever unremarkable free agent signings on that side of the ball most certainly does not make them “better.” Having Edelman back will be big, as long as he’s his usual self. I still don’t see any scenarios where they’d be considered better than last year, though.

Seems to be underselling Edelman IMO. You don’t need me telling you he’s a top 15 WR & one of the best man coverage beaters in the league.

Are you a big Lewis fan or very fearful of LT?

Gronkowski
Edelman (80-90%)
Cooks
Hogan

Is the hest group of pass catchers in the NFL. I thought last year’s offense would compete to be one of the best ever. That went down the toilet with Edelman’s injury. If he returns to form, it’s tough to see the offense not better than last year?

——————————-

To answer the OP: Need to see how Edelman is Post-ACL.
 
Seems to be underselling Edelman IMO. You don’t need me telling you he’s a top 15 WR & one of the best man coverage beaters in the league.

Are you a big Lewis fan or very fearful of LT?

Gronkowski
Edelman (80-90%)
Cooks
Hogan

Is the hest group of pass catchers in the NFL. I thought last year’s offense would compete to be one of the best ever. That went down the toilet with Edelman’s injury. If he returns to form, it’s tough to see the offense not better than last year?

——————————-

To answer the OP: Need to see how Edelman is Post-ACL.
1) The return to the field (or not) of Rob Gronkowski

2) The return to health of Julian Edelman

3) The situation at LT—could be the most important

4) The replacement of Dion Lewis. Who is going to carry the ball and produce like he was down the stretch where he led the NFL in yards from scrimmage for 5 weeks or so?

Those are the 4 questions that I’d have, right now.
 
"Better"? "Worse"? LOL!

I can only say with confidence that it will be different from the 2017 offense. It's different every year due to personnel availability, and it's always adapted to play to the strengths of the available personnel as much as possible.

Duh.

In 2016, the ground game was a throwback, "pound the rock with Blount" thing. Lewis was just starting to work his way back from injury, so that was what what they had to work with. It was well-supported by the excellent blocking work of Develin and Bennett, Gronk (when healthy) and Fleming (as an extra TE when Gronk was injured).

The 2016 passing attack was dominated by relatively quick middle-distance throws (9-13 yds). This, combined with the strong, power-running attack, helped keep Brady clean by making play-action extremely effective. With Edelman on his game, and assisted by White, Bennett and Amendola/Mitchell, these middle-distance throws comprised 75% of all tgts/rec. Hogan/Gronk, when Gronk was healthy, were the deep threats (> 15 ypc), combining for 63/96 (66% cr) for 1220 yds (19.4 ypc), and another 17% of the overall passing attack. Very short throws (<7 yds) accounted for the remaining 8%.

In 2017, Edelman, Bennett and Mitchell were unavailable, and the middle-distance part of the passing attack dropped off a cliff to 28%. It was carried almost entirely by Amendola and Hogan (when healthy), who combined for 95 receptions, with very minor assists from Britt/Hollister/Bennett. And these mid-range routes were clearly not Hogan's forte - his catch rate of 66% on a 17.9 ypc in 2016 dropped to 58% at a 12.9 ypc in 2017.

With Cooks and a healthy Gronk (and a minor assist from Dorsett), deeper throws increased to 38% of the passing attack ... 146/237 tgts (62% cr) for 2360 yds (16.2 ypc). Shorter throws (7.6 ypc) - principally to White, Burkhead and Lewis - also increased dramatically to 35% of the passing attack (White's routes also change a bit from 2017).

The ground game was also different - more "finesse running", more broadly-distributed, and based more on the versatility of the RBBC members - and it evolved over the course of the season as circumstances and personnel capabilities changed. But it was consistently supported by the blocking of Develin, Allen and a healthy Gronk (Fleming was rarely used as a TE in 2017, even before he started subbing at RT).

In the end, all the dramatic, personnel-driven changes between the 2016 offense and 2017 offense didn't mean a damn thing. In 2016, the offense generated 441 points on 6180 yards. In 2017, the offense generated 458 points on 6307 yards (McD really sucks at OC, right?).

For 2018? There's really no way to know yet what they'll come up with. Over the next six months, McD and company will review all the offensive personnel who are available (including the OTs), judge their current capabilities, and design an offense that maximizes those strengths while minimizing the exposure of any weaknesses. It will also evolve over the course of the season.

IOW, it will adapt; it will be different. And it probably won't be bad at all.
 
1) The return to the field (or not) of Rob Gronkowski

2) The return to health of Julian Edelman

3) The situation at LT—could be the most important

4) The replacement of Dion Lewis. Who is going to carry the ball and produce like he was down the stretch where he led the NFL in yards from scrimmage for 5 weeks or so?

Those are the 4 questions that I’d have, right now.

Reasonable. #1 is certainly a nuke that could decimate the team’s SB chances. Agreed on 2 + 3.

#4, we’ll plug in a variety of RBs & be 8th-14th in rushing like most seasons when the OL isn’t a trainwreck (2015). In crunchtime + big games, the receiving RB will be on the field. Personally I’m not a RB guy although Lewis was our best since Dillon.
 
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