Semi-OT: The Ravens "A Shadow" their SB Team

[mayoclinic]

With all the analysis of the Pats' moves, and some of the critique of BB the GM vs. BB the coach, I thought this was a good read on the Ravens:

Baltimore Ravens are a shadow of their Super Bowl team - ESPN

Managing a team from year to year is extremely challenging in the era of the salary cap, free agency, and the 53 man roster. Guys get hurt, guys get old, and there's a fine balance between keeping a nucleus together and over-paying. A few wrong moves here and there can have enormous ramifications.

Ozzie Newsome is widely considered the "best in the business" by many, but the Ravens have some work to do to get back to being a serious contender, and a number of questionable moves/mistakes have been made:

- Overpaying for Joe Flacco
- Trading away Flacco's security blanket, Anquan Boldin. If you're going to spend $20M on a jump ball QB, why trade away his best jump ball receiving option
- Poor personnel evaluations / draft decisions on Sergio Kindle, Terrance Cody, and a few others
- Issues with the offensive line, resulting in poor protection for that $20M QB

I personally think the Ravens overpaid Terrell Suggs, Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe this year. They traded up in 2009 to draft Michael Oher as a "franchise LT", and he didn't make it to a second contract with the team.

Obviously, Ozzie is one of the better GMs in the league. The point is not to bash him - almost every team would take his track record in a heartbeat. But a few mistakes here and there can have profound implications on a team. BB has made his share of mistakes, but he's also done a masterful job of keeping the nucleus of the team intact, growing the talent base via the draft, and addressing some key needs in FA, all while not crippling the team for the long term. That's really hard to do.

 

[sircole]

It's going to be very interesting observing Steve Smith with the Ravens locker room dynamics. They are still filling the leadership void created when Ray Lewis retired.

 

[patchick]

Agreed on all points: Newsome is overall an excellent GM, and the Ravens are a bit of a hot mess right now. Some of their mis-steps should have been forseen (e.g. Sergio Kindle). Others were risks that seemed very much worth taking, but didn't pan out (e.g. Terrence Cody.)

An interesting one is Oher. It's hard to assess that choice out of context, because the 2009 draft was one of the most confusing and screwed-up drafts ever, from top to bottom. Heck, the most "sure-thing" prospect of the year, Aaron Curry, is already out of football.

 

[mayoclinic]

Agreed on all points: Newsome is overall an excellent GM, and the Ravens are a bit of a hot mess right now. Some of their mis-steps should have been forseen (e.g. Sergio Kindle). Others were risks that seemed very much worth taking, but didn't pan out (e.g. Terrence Cody.)

An interesting one is Oher. It's hard to assess that choice out of context, because the 2009 draft was one of the most confusing and screwed-up drafts ever, from top to bottom. Heck, the most "sure-thing" prospect of the year, Aaron Curry, is already out of football.

Every team makes moves which make sense at the time, and turn out to be "WTF" moves. In 2009 Oher was considered a possible top 10 pick, and dropped to 23. The Ravens pounced. It was a move similar to NE moving up to 21 for Chandler Jones in 2012, only it didn't work out.

My point is not that Ozzie made mistakes - which he did, as everyone does - but that it only takes a relatively small number of mistakes to turn things into a "hot mess". Ray Lewis and Ed Reed got old, the Ravens didn't really plan for that accordingly, they had a leadership gap when Lewis left, they missed on a couple of draft picks, they overspent on a couple of players, and they had to make some hard choices on who to pay and who to let go. Every team goes through those kind of issues.

IMO the Ravens aren't a serious contender, and may not be for a while - Flacco's contract is a huge black hole that will affect them for the long term, and unless he manages to channel his 2012 playoff form, he's nowhere near worth it. His cap hits in 2016-2017 could be crippling ($28.55M and $31.15M, with dead money hits of $25.85M and $15.3M).

A lot of people bash "BB the GM" and question many of the moves the Pats have made. Obviously, some have been mistakes in retrospect. FAs haven't panned out as hoped (Jonathan Fanene, Adrian Wilson), draft picks haven't lived up to expectations (Ras-I Dowling, Darius Butler, Pat Chung, Jake Bequette, and many, many others), opportunities have been missed. Unexpected things occur - Ozzie didn't expect Sergio Kindle to fall down a staircase and crack his skull, and BB didn't expect Aaron Hernandez to be a purported serial killer. But in the era of the salary cap and free agency - when, as Jerry Jones recently noted, there is about a 33% annual turnover, and teams are forced to live with many of their mistakes because of the dead money impact on their cap situation - being able to maintain a strong nucleus and consistently augment the team from year to year is a considerable achievement.

I think most people feel that the 2014 team looks to be stronger than 2013. 2013 looked like a stronger roster than 2012 (prior to injuries, at least), and 2012 looked stronger than 2011. Positions of weakness have been turned into positions of strength (remember when we had no running game? when we had no db's who could cover?). We've added impact players, talent and quality depth on both sides of the ball, and so far we don't appear to have undermined the long term to do so.

At least 29 teams in the NFL should be so unfortunate.

 

[patchick]

Yep, we can all point to every mistake our own team has made because we follow them so closely, but other teams' mistakes don't come to mind as easily.

Except the Jets', of course.

 

[manxman2601]

I still can't get over the fact that the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Falcons were all in contention for the #1 overall pick for much of last year. Our two bad years under BB were going 9-7 and going 11-5 and missing the playoffs.

 

[cstjohn17]

I would rather have a Superbowl than 3 AFC runner up banners.