Reiss:Similarities to 2010 a notable history lesson for team

[TinhWoodhead]

I just rewatched that 2010 playoff game for the first time last night.

1. That defense was held together by baling wire and duct tape. The names: Guyton, Cunningham, Love... kind of amazing they did as well as they did. Great coaching.

2. Jets CBs didn't have to defend deep. Revis was on Branch like white on rice. So Rex flooded the middle of the field and made Brady hold the ball forever.

3. Serious bad luck and stupidity in that game. Plus the Jets average starting point for each drive was around the 50.

IMHO the 2016 team runs RINGS around the 2010 team. That team had heart... this team is much tougher...

and MUCH more talented. Just compare the two rosters.

We still had a chance at the end

 

[sb1]

I don't know that the Steelers would have beaten the Patriots. The Jets defense was really good, better than the Steelers by far.

True but Ben is also much better than Sanchez. I think the Steelers offense would have marched up and down the field at will. Plus they had the blueprint that the Jets gave them.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I like Alex Speier's piece....he basically describes the anatomy of a playoff upset, and of course, he references the 2010 Divisional round loss to the Jets

How does an underdog knock off a No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs? - The Boston Globe

There were a number of things about those Jets that have characterized teams that pulled off upsets of No. 1 seeds. What are some of those hallmarks?

Familiarity: The Jets needed little research to become familiar with the Patriots, whom they’d already played twice in the regular season. Since 2000, the more often that an underdog has faced a top seed, the more frequently they’ve beaten them.

Top seed facing playoff opponent for the first time: 13-3 (.816).

Top seed facing opponent for the second time: 22-8 (.733).

Top seed facing opponent for the third time: 4-4 (.500).

Stout defense: Of the 15 teams to topple top seeds, 11 featured a defense that ranked among the top six in the NFL in points allowed. (The 2010 Jets ranked sixth, two spots better than the Patriots.) Four teams with a top-six offense pulled off upsets — but it’s worth noting that every one of those also featured a top-six defense.

Turnover terror: It should come as little surprise that turnovers often dictate the outcome of playoff games. Teams with a favorable turnover margin have a 122-30 record (.803) in the playoffs since 2000.

Of the 15 teams that upset top seeds, 13 (87 percent) won the turnover battle. On three occasions, the team that pulled off the upset had a pick-6.

Make life miserable for the quarterback: Nine of the 15 upsets featured the winning team out-sacking the losers. That 2010 Jets team, for instance, sacked Brady five times, while New England failed to bring down Mark Sanchez. The 2011 Giants out-sacked the Packers, 4-1, in a 37-20 upset in January 2012 on the way to a Super Bowl upset of the Patriots.

Defensive meltdown: Of the 15 top seeds to lose in conference play, 10 allowed 24 or more points. Since 2000, top seeds that got knocked off have given up an average of 27 points in their playoff losses.

Special plays: Of the 15 instances of a No. 1 seed’s defeat, seven featured game-changing special teams moments.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The blanket comparisons just are not going to paint a sufficient amount of the comparison picture especially specific to the AFCDG Jets' loss. PO positional breakdown, including depth and health, would need to be done. And with Brady/the passing game so critical to the team's success (notably more so in 2010 IMHO), examining our OL personnel and their individual weaknesses/injury as well as the strengths of the Jets' DL would make the "whys" of this individual game and comparison of the 2011 January to January 2017 team a more accurate one.

Nowadays every team has weaknesses. A poignant gameplan that exploits this weakness (keep in mind the weakness may have not been exploited much if at all during the season),a team coming into the POs playing their best football, add in a good bounce or two and it can make a big difference in outcome.

Yes, the weaknesses that exist in the 2016 Patriots could get exploited as it could against any remaining team (in 2001 the mighty Rams receivers were 'less than thrilled' toward taking hits - this was a weakness we exploited by bone jarring them as often as possible). But also remember Rex Ryan definitely had a capable team in 2010 and also had/would prove a sometime capability to craft gameplans that could sometimes slow down the offense/Brady and stymie BB & staff.
In that AFCDG, BB/TB just didn't have a good enough answer for the gameplan for what Rex did. Maybe the adjustment was there for us to still win or maybe Rex had found and exploited a rudimentary flaw (the latter IMHO). Then couple that with a Patriot secondary that was markedly struggling with Sanchez (if I recall, 2010 was one of those teams where third down D was a remote control destroyer) and it turned the Patriots' lights out.

With that said, IMHO 2016 Houston is markedly below the 2010 Jets and the 2016 Patriots have notably better balance than 2010.
Side note: Best recall impression is 2010's D while not impressive was starkly more impressive than the frightful 2011 D that was a couple minutes from a SB victory. The moral of that story is winning the SB can be a windy trek that relies on not just capability but some kindness from the football gods.

 

[deroc5050]

Side note: Best recall impression is 2010's D while not impressive was starkly more impressive than the frightful 2011 D that was a couple minutes from a SB victory. The moral of that story is winning the SB can be a windy trek that relies on not just capability but some kindness from the football gods.

Absolutely , a key drop on 3rd or 4th down, a turn over, a big special teams play, Bad calls from the refs...

The thing is though even with all of those possibilities I just think New England is just to much for Houston. Houston would have to be extremely lucky to be in it in the 4th quarter nevermind win the game.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Absolutely , a key drop on 3rd or 4th down, a turn over, a big special teams play, Bad calls from the refs...

The thing is though even with all of those possibilities I just think New England is just to much for Houston. Houston would have to be extremely lucky to be in it in the 4th quarter nevermind win the game.

Completely agree.
Some are forgetting the Jets had a capable team. They won 11 games including a win against the Patriots. They had late season wins against a good Pitt and Bengals team, and in between lost a close high scoring game against (if I recall correctly) a good Bears team at Soldier field.
Houston just hasn't shown that kind of capability - they've shown repeatedly barely getting by eben mediocre teams if not losing. The 2010 v 2016 comparison is not valid IMHO.

2016's balance makes opposing teams need to break through more than one established capable area. The Texans will not only need to shut down what normally is shut down on multiple fronts, they have to way overperform too. "New England is just too much for Houston" is spot on and much more stark than the 2010 game (though it was very fair to believe we would beat the Jets).
I don;t see any remaining team pulling a Ravens(physical domination) or Jets(excellent gameplan) on us. We can lose but I just don't see those kinds of semi-futile showings happening. The 2016 Patriots will get beat by the other team because they do a bit more/the Patriots do a bit less in the 4th quarter -- ending in a tight score.
This is why I like the Patriots chances this year. We are looking at 3 outcomes against anyone: A close win, a close loss, a decided to lopsided win. I don't see this well balanced team having a decided to lopsided loss

 

[TomPatriot]

2016 is a better, tougher, more dimensional, more experienced team. And face it, for all we hate the guy, Ryan always played BB tough (except the buttfumble game, which was just a comedy of errors).

But yeah, ANY GIVEN SUNDAY.

And as a Texans fan wrote, the game is on Saturday.

 

[Kontradiction]

True but Ben is also much better than Sanchez. I think the Steelers offense would have marched up and down the field at will. Plus they had the blueprint that the Jets gave them.

The Pats would have smoked the Steelers at Gillette if they had played again. Wouldn't have mattered. Green Bay would have beat the Pats' asses in that Super Bowl anyway. Nobody was stopping them that year. Especially not the trash bag defense the Pats had in 2010.

 

[TomPatriot]

Given the number of Stepford posters in that other thread, Reiss' article is a refreshingly candid read.

If a poster is a Stepford wife for being an avid Pats fan and not seeing how the Texans can win absent a complete Pats meltdown, then here I am . . .

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

If a poster is a Stepford wife for being an avid Pats fan and not seeing how the Texans can win absent a complete Pats meltdown, then here I am . . .

That's you Tom? Huh....would you like to get a cup of coffee sometime?

 

[TomPatriot]

That's you Tom? Huh....would you like to get a cup of coffee sometime?

I think my humor went a little too far!

I look more like the actor Gregory Harrison. And I only bat from one side of the plate. So . . . no, but thanks for the offer!

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I think my humor went a little too far!

I look more like the actor Gregory Harrison. And I only bat from one side of the plate. So . . . no, but thanks for the offer!

great, just another phony profile pic on the internet.

 

[captain stone]

I completely agree, on both counts.

In my fantasy world, the Patriots and the Packers would have already faced each other 4 times
in the SB: 1996, 2007, 2010 & 2014. The Pats would be 1-1 vs Favre and 1-1 vs Rodgers.
It could've been one of the greatest championship rivalries in the history of the NFL.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I completely agree, on both counts.

In my fantasy world, the Patriots and the Packers would have already faced each other 4 times
in the SB: 1996, 2007, 2010 & 2014. The Pats would be 1-1 vs Favre and 1-1 vs Rodgers.
It could've been one of the greatest championship rivalries in the history of the NFL.

That 2010 Packers team was white hot in the playoffs. Very, very good D too.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

NFL's youtube account uploaded the entire game a couple of weeks ago