Receiver hand-wringing

[Fencer]

Reminder: By Game 2, missing receivers from last season, without good replacements, were Gronkowski, Welker, Hernandez, Woodhead, and Lloyd.

• The plan was for Gronkowski to recover from injury. That's just now happening.
• The plan was to replace Welker with Amendola. Amendola got injured. He's better now -- for now. Reasonable people can disagree about what expectations we should have for Amendola's continued health. (I'm on the mildly pessimistic side.)
• There was no play to replace Hernandez with anybody remotedly comparable. Sometimes, bad stuff happens.
• The plan was to replace Woodhead with (more snaps for) Vereen. Vereen got injured. He's due back Game 11.
• The plan was to replace Lloyd with rookies. That was obviously more likely to succeed later in the season.

Summing up: The Pats' 5 best receivers were lost, but 4 were supposed to be (and are on track to be) back or replaced in the latter part of the season ...


... give or take your expectations for players with distressingly rich injury histories.


All that said, injuries and depth are indeed issues.

• Gronk has had a bad medical run.
• Amendola is a lot more fragile than Welker.
• The slightly soft AHern hasn't been replaced at all.
• Woodhead & Vereen became ... Vereen.
• Lloyd's remarkable approach to self-preservation tends to work. We'll see how the rookies hold up.

 

[mgteich]

Lloyd has been reasonably replaced by Dobson and Thompkins.

Branch has been reasonably replaced by Collie (about the same catches per game).

Welker (as a slot receiver) has been replaced by Amendola and Edelman. If they are both healthy, we should be in OK shape.

I don't think that the major deficit right now is at wide receiver.
===========

The more major questions and deficiencies are receiving production from the TE and RB positions. We can make up for some of this with an improved running game; but there is a limit.

 

[Avenger]

pass catching at RB is the limiting factor right now

 

[mgteich]

Well, one of two. Pass-catching by our tight ends is at its lowest level since Belichick got here.

pass catching at RB is the limiting factor right now

 

[Avenger]

Gronk is back in the line up, so that has been mostly rectified

 

[mgteich]

Maybe, maybe not. How many catches did he have against Miami? Is he fully recovered from this hamstring injury?

Gronk is back in the line up, so that has been mostly rectified

 

[Fencer]

Dobson is on a great track to replace & surpass Lloyd, and it's not as if Lloyd was perfectly reliable at getting to his spot, catching the ball, and promptly falling down. Even so, I was assuming Dobson's rookie unreliability still leaves him a bit behind Lloyd.

Gronk hasn't been Gronk yet. Hopefully that will change imminently.

Amendola hasn't looked like the 2nd coming of Welker yet upon returning from injury. Hopefully that will change soon as well.

Vereen has never been a proven receiver on the Faulk/Woodhead level; still, I feel pretty good about him matching or surpassing Woodhead as an overall weapon when he's back, and I'd probably prefer him to Woodhead split out on a WR route already.

 

[strngplyr]

Lloyd has been reasonably replaced by Dobson and Thompkins.

Branch has been reasonably replaced by Collie (about the same catches per game).

Welker (as a slot receiver) has been replaced by Amendola and Edelman. If they are both healthy, we should be in OK shape.

I don't think that the major deficit right now is at wide receiver.
===========

The more major questions and deficiencies are receiving production from the TE and RB positions. We can make up for some of this with an improved running game; but there is a limit.

Except we can't have 7 skill position players on the field to replace the product of 5 lost.

 

[DarrylS]

[*]The slightly soft AHern hasn't been replaced at all.

Do you have a suggestion for how they could have replaced AH and his unique skill set???

Going into this season it seems as though the plan was for Hernandez, Gronk, Vereen, Edelman, Amendola and the rookies... but crap happens.

IMO losing Hernandez was the significant blow...

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

pass catching at RB is the limiting factor right now

Some have alluded to Woodhead's loss being arguably the biggest one, and it's not a bad thought IMO. Hernandez has not and I'm not sure if Welker has been replaced statistically by Edelman/DA, but I don't think their losses have been felt as much as not having a reliable RB after Ridley with Vereen injured. We've missed Woody from the pass catching standpoint and as a runner. Bolden has been a major disappointment this season on both ends. Whether he is banged up or whatever, him and Blount are too big a drop off from Ridley aside from Blount late in some games, that has really hurt us. And he can't catch a cold. Hindsight is 20/20 and I certainly didn't have issues in moving forward with what we have at RB at the time, but I'm starting to think not paying the extra $1M for Woody over Bolden, who showed flashes last season but never seems to be fully healthy/effective constistnely, was a big mistake.

I think we win the Bengals game with Woody - we were having success on the ground until Blount's fumble, and no way Woody drops that pass where Bolden had nothing but green in front of him early on. Jets game I really don't know but I see us 7-1 at worst right now with Woody. I think THE biggest issue with the offense is the interior OL but that's a whole new discussion and probably requires more resources to fix, but in the spirit of this thread I have to agree with Avenger.

 

[Fencer]

Do you have a suggestion for how they could have replaced AH and his unique skill set???

Nope. Especially not at the point in the offseason when the news hit.

 

[patfanken]

Well, one of two. Pass-catching by our tight ends is at its lowest level since Belichick got here.

Oh MG, how quickly we forget. In 2g 001 the ENTIRE TE group (Wiggy and Rob Rutledge) totaled less than 20 during the Regular Season. In fact IIRC the 10 catches he had in the snow bowl almost exceeded his entire total for the season.

Also IIRC, the entire catch total for all the WR's not named Patten, Brown, and Glenn didn't combine for 20 catches during the regular season.

Memories are both short and selective. These days we all seem to be ready to jump off the roof every game we don't throw for over 300 yds and have a receiver with an excess of 10 receptions.

 

[mgteich]

I checked. The RBs this year have caught 32 passes. We expect improvement with Vereen back. HOWEVER, even with no improvement, they would have 64 receptions.

Of course, we know that we had lots more last year with Woodhead. Or did we? The total for the RB's last year was 56.

The reduction from last year is from the TE position and from the inability to run the non-huddle.

The wide receivers will also have more receptions than last year if they produce as they did for the first half.

If Gronk is healthy for even part of the last half, Brady will be close to last years numbers. he is on a pace for 342 receptions. The total last year was 402, which we all agreed was too many.

pass catching at RB is the limiting factor right now

 

[Deus Irae]

Lloyd has been reasonably replaced by Dobson and Thompkins.

Branch has been reasonably replaced by Collie (about the same catches per game).

Welker (as a slot receiver) has been replaced by Amendola and Edelman. If they are both healthy, we should be in OK shape.

I don't think that the major deficit right now is at wide receiver.
===========

The more major questions and deficiencies are receiving production from the TE and RB positions. We can make up for some of this with an improved running game; but there is a limit.

None of last year's receivers have been 'reasonably' replaced, to date.

None.

The rookies haven't replaced Lloyd. They don't know where the hell they're going.

Amendola sure hasn't replaced Welker.

There's no AHern serving as the hybrid.


WR issues are, far and away, the the most important factor in the offensive decline.

 

[Deus Irae]

I checked. The receivers this year have caught 32 passes. We expect improvement with Vereen back. HOWEVER, even with no improvement, they would have 64 receptions.

Of course, we know that we had lots more last year with Woodhead. Or did we? The total for the RB's last year was 56.

The reduction from last year is from the TE position and from the inability to run the non-huddle.

The wide receivers will also have more receptions than last year if they produce as they did for the first half.

If Gronk is healthy for even part of the last half, Brady will be close to last years numbers. he is on a pace for 342 receptions. The total last year was 402, which we all agreed was too many.

Because there is no AHern, and no Welker/Amendola, the loss of the 3rd down RB has been a major blow. Had AHern returned, and had Welker returned (or Amendola stayed healthy and gotten the job done), there'd have been other 3rd down options to take the load off. Without them, the loss of both Woodhead and Vereen has pretty clearly taken its toll.

 

[mgteich]

Even if we accept your WR hand wringing and no improvement in the last half, production is similar to 2012 from the WR and RB positions. The major difference is losing 5 catches a game from the TE position, where we averaged 7 catches a game last year.

Obviously, there are issues that need to be improved, particularly 3rd down and red zone efficiency. However, the discussion of the demise of our passing game is premature.

WR production with ZERO second half improvement
-----------------------------
2013 doubled - 240 receptions for 16 touchdowns
2012 actual - 230 receptions for 14 touchdowns

RB production with ZERO second half improvement
--------------------------------
2013 doubled - 64 receptions for 0 touchdowns
2012 actual - 56 receptions for 4 touchdowns

 

[Deus Irae]

WR With ZERO improvement
-----------------------------
2013 doubled - 240 receptions for 16 touchdowns
2012 actual - 230 receptions for 14 touchdowns

Throwing out straight numbers is meaningless in this, and you know that. Are you just trolling in this thread?


edit: I see you added more to your post. Yes, apparently you are just trolling. Ok, well, have fun.

 

[mgteich]

No one is questioning that we would be better off with a healthy Welker all year instead of an injured Amendola.

No one is questioning that we would be better off with at least one healthy quality TE in each game, which is what we had last last year (with one of Gronk or Ahern out almost every game). We've had Gronk for one game.

We are what we are. At this point, without improvement, we are a playoff team, about 11-5, with great deficiencies at TE and inexperience at WR. If we can get more out of Gronk and Amendola, we should improve some.

I just see no reason for the hand wringing. Other than the recent injury to Gronk and the 2nd injury to Amendola, we have pretty well what I expected.

Throwing out straight numbers is meaningless in this, and you know that. Are you just trolling in this thread?


edit: I see you added more to your post. Yes, apparently you are just trolling. Ok, well, have fun.

 

[Deus Irae]

No one is questioning that we would be better off with a healthy Welker all year instead of an injured Amendola.

No one is questioning that we would be better off with at least one healthy quality TE in each game, which is what we had last last year (with one of Gronk or Ahern out almost every game). We've had Gronk for one game.

We are what we are. At this point, without improvement, we are a playoff team, about 11-5, with great deficiencies at TE and inexperience at WR. If we can get more out of Gronk and Amendola, we should improve some.

I just see no reason for the hand wringing. Other than the recent injury to Gronk and the 2nd injury to Amendola, we have pretty well what I expected.

Yes, other than the biggest blows of the season, the team is right where you thought they'd be. Well, other than those losses plus the loss at RB. And the terrible way the offense is playing overall. And the major struggles to put points on the board.

But, other than that, they're right where you thought they'd be.



Like I said, you're trolling. That's fine, but let's not pretend it's something else.

 

[RIpats88]

it's really been a perfect storm of bad luck so far really IMO.

Vereen who was clear was going to be a BIG part of the offense this year gets injured on the first play of the year. Then amendola who was slotted to be bradys #1 guy gets injured and Gronkowski takes longer than expected to return to the field. Then for whatever reason Belichick decides not to use our best running back

The good news is, Gronk is back and getting healthier each week, and Amendola is back and getting healthy. tomorrow will mark the 2nd time this year both are on the same field together, Dobson appears to improving and "getting it" and we get Vereen back after the bye week.

so all in all, it looks like our offense is getting healthier for the stretch run.