Rank highest to lowest possibility of an Upset in the 4 Divisional Games

[Steve102]

Rank the 4 games and to which game you think is most likely to have a chance at an upset and which is least.

Rank at '1' would be most likely to upset and '4' would be least

Current Odds for the games:

Atlanta -2 over Seattle
San Francisco -2 over Green Bay
New England -9 over Houston
Denver -9 over Baltimore



1 - Green Bay - Give me a team with many veteran and experienced Super Bowl players and arguably the best overall QB in the NFL from just a few years ago over a rookie QB to have best chance for an upset

2 - Houston - I am not sure what Patriots team we will see,the slow out the gate lackluster one from the Jags game or a more dominating team right from the start of the game like the Miami RS Finale

3 - Seattle - I think Ryan finally gets the monkey off his back and wins this one,Atlanta might be the most disrespected 13-3 team ever,Seattle losing their DE hurts.

4 - Baltimore - Don't see Flacco outscoring Manning...plain and simple,that being said,I think Denver is still untested for 2+ months now vs. any elite QB.

1: Seattle: they are playing well and have a lot of confidence.
2. Green Bay: Aaron Rogers.
3. Houston: They won't stink it up again. I expect a dog fight.
4. Baltimore: They lack the firepower to go toe to toe with Manning.

 

[fxkane]

1) Green Bay

2) Baltimore

3) Seattle

4) Houston

 

[alvinnf]

GB
Den
Atl
NE

 

[Rob0729]

Must keep that consistency in the playoffs when it counts to win it all ... It was there in 2001,2003 and 2004. ...it needs to be on sunday and hopefully forward.

The 2001 team:

Snow Bowl - The Pats were down 13-3 until the 4th quarter (down 7-0 at the half)

The 2003 team:

Against Tennessee, shut out in the second half until they scored the game winning field goal at the end of the game.

The 2004 team:

Against Indy, only up 6-3 at the half and then scored 14 unanswered points in the second half.

Again, you are revising history. The Pats were far from consistent in the first game of any playoff game in Super Bowl winning years. And years they went to the Super Bowls and lost, they were inconsistent in the AFC Championship games (against Baltimore last year and against San Diego in the 2007 season).

 

[josh24]

1) GB - The (apparently) best defensive player of SF has a torn triceps. That kept Ray Lewis out for more than half of the season. Not sure if Justin will be at 100% if/when he plays. If he's out, I don't see Aldon Smith (aka Invisible Man since that Brady INT) putting Rodgers in a lot of trouble. Aaron Rodgers and his slew of top receivers are playing great football, while 49ers #1 CB Carlos Rogers absolutely blows this year. The Alex Smith's situation will payback in this playoffs. This might be the right time.

2) SEA - The Falcons can't run the ball. They were 29th in rush yds, while SEA defense was 10th. Sorry Matt Ryan, you're not a Drew Brees to make this a competitive game without running the ball. ATL has a chance if they throw the ball to Julio Jones, who will be facing Brandon Browner. Browner is very physical, but he's not even close to Sherman in coverage. He got burned many times by Garcon last Sunday. We'll see a lot of Thomas/Chancellor helping in Browner's side. On the other side of the ball, I don't see Lynch fumbling in a dome. He's the best RB left in this playoffs. I still doubt on Russell Wilson on the road, especially facing a secondary who allowed the least passing TD this season.

3) HOU - For the Texans, the key for this game will be Matt Schaub. And his effort might not be enough. Is not a secret we will double cover Andre Johnson. His next passing weapon is Daniels, but I think our LBs are good enough to slow him down. Not to say he has been battling some injuries this season. But then there is Arian Foster. When he is hot in a game, he's nearly unstoppable. He and Ray Rice are probably the best RBs out of the backfield. I think NE run defense can stop him, but they MUST keep him out of the red zone. Their only TD at Foxborough (when they still had a slim chance) was in the red zone. He had 4 bad games in the season, and HOU lost 3 of them. NE offense is #1 by far for a reason. As long as NE minimize the turnovers, they won't a have a lot of problems against HOU defense.

4) BAL - I just don't see Manning losing this one. BAL defense couldn't stop him in the past, when they were peaking. What makes anybody think they will now, older and with less talent? Yes, they're inspired because his great leader is leaving. Too bad that's not enough. The playbook for Flacco will be hand it Rice, and throw Hail Marys...as usual. I wonder if we're gonna see Pitta getting involved in the offense; DEN has struggled this season against TEs. How BAL win this game? Establish the ground game to slow the game up, get rid of the ball quick before you meet Von Miller & Elvis Dumervil, and pray for a bad weather to affect Manning's game and create some turnovers.

 

[rookBoston]

1) Seattle - this should be a pick'em. Atlanta is not that much better
2) Houston - giving 9 points is disrespectful. Houston is a quality team.
3) Green Bay - their D will fold against the Niners, but if Rogers can get a lead they could do it
4) Baltimore - they are lucky to have lasted this long. I look at Baltimore and I see lots of mediocrity.

 

[PatsDeb]

1. GB over SF - Is that really an upset if GB wins?
2. Seattle over Atlanta - Still not in love with the Falcons in the playoffs.
3. Houston over NE - Still a long shot in my eyes, but still greater than Baltimore winning in Denver.
4. Baltimore over Denver - Unfortunately, the Ravens aren't at home facing a team that is one dimensional on offense and lacks a defense this weekend.

This is my order too.

 

[ALP]

1. GB over SF, really either team can take that one
2. BAL over DEN, the fact that denver hasnt faced a team that will bite back in a long time is evidence enough, when they played earlier ravens were not doing so bad till Flacco through a pick in the redzone, if that were a TD, it would be a tight game, and that BAL then sucked, the team that played this past weekend looked much better, those factors together, and i would not be that surprised if DEN loses
3. HOU over NE: I hate to put this here, but it just goes to show you how much little faith I have in SEA actually winning that game...that falcons team is not going to live last year over again, not to a mediocre SEA team, not to a rookie QB, no rookie QB is gonna out duel Matty Ice anytime soon
4.SEA over ATL: not gonna happen, though HOU is a good team, which is why I think they still have a chance against us and rank #3

 

[ivanvamp]

Rank the 4 games and to which game you think is most likely to have a chance at an upset and which is least.

Rank at '1' would be most likely to upset and '4' would be least

Current Odds for the games:

Atlanta -2 over Seattle
San Francisco -2 over Green Bay
New England -9 over Houston
Denver -9 over Baltimore



1 - Green Bay - Give me a team with many veteran and experienced Super Bowl players and arguably the best overall QB in the NFL from just a few years ago over a rookie QB to have best chance for an upset

2 - Houston - I am not sure what Patriots team we will see,the slow out the gate lackluster one from the Jags game or a more dominating team right from the start of the game like the Miami RS Finale

3 - Seattle - I think Ryan finally gets the monkey off his back and wins this one,Atlanta might be the most disrespected 13-3 team ever,Seattle losing their DE hurts.

4 - Baltimore - Don't see Flacco outscoring Manning...plain and simple,that being said,I think Denver is still untested for 2+ months now vs. any elite QB.

Cool thread. Here's my shot at an answer....

1. Seattle. Losing Clemons really hurts, but this Seattle team is rolling, and they're very good. I could see them potentially putting a hurting on the Falcons.

2. Green Bay. For the reasons you mentioned. I think this Packers team is capable of losing to anybody, really, because they have some serious holes, but a HOF-caliber QB can cover up for a lot of them. We saw what Brady did to SF once he got it going, and Rodgers is just as good with just as many weapons.

3. Houston. The Pats *should* win this game, and relatively handily (hence the Vegas line), but really, Houston absolutely has a legit shot in this one.

4. Baltimore. I can see almost no scenario, barring Manning getting knocked out of the game, where Denver loses this game. Manning always beats Baltimore, and Denver is home, and they are better in every conceivable phase of the game. Oh, and just recently, they waxed the Ravens. So I'll be shocked if Baltimore pulls this one out.

My predictions:

Sea 27, Atl 24
SF 24, GB 21
NE 31, Hou 24
Den 34, Bal 13

 

[ivanvamp]

4. BAL over DEN - Though I'd love nothing more than to have Lewis' career and Pollard's season end in Foxboro.

I don't want Pollard anywhere near this Patriots' team. Even if the Pats crush the Ravens, he'll find a way to injure a key player on the Pats. Stay far, far away.

 

[Patradomous]

Have you guys seen Mannings record after getting a playoff bye?
He has a losing record.
Have you seen Mannings record playing in temps below 32 degrees?
He has losing record.
When was the last time Denver been this deep in the playoffs?
You think Ray Lew and the rest of his prison thugs are afraid of the Broncos?
If Flacco doesn't lose the game for them. Manning will lose it for Denver.

Seattle
Bmore
GB
Hous

 

[PatsDeb]

Have you guys seen Mannings record after getting a playoff bye?
He has a losing record.
Have you seen Mannings record playing in temps below 32 degrees?
He has losing record.
When was the last time Denver been this deep in the playoffs?
You think Ray Lew and the rest of his prison thugs are afraid of the Broncos?
If Flacco doesn't lose the game for them. Manning will lose it for Denver.

Seattle
Bmore
GB
Hous

Believe me, I hope this happens! It just seems like it would be too good to be true (provided we take care of business against Houston this weekend)...

 

[tatepatsfan]

1. SEA @ ATL
2. GB @ SF
3. BAL @ DEN
4. HOU @ NE

Considering the Falcons' recent playoff record, how well the Seahawks have been playing, and the fact that the Seahawks appear to have figured out how to win on the road, I could definitely see an upset there. On the other hand, Ryan and his team have surely learned from the past few seasons, right? The Falcons were the most complete team in the NFC all season long, but the Seahawks look to be the hottest team in the NFC at the moment.

I think the Packers have a good shot too. I believe they need to start off strong. I know the 49ers came to Foxboro and whooped us, but since halftime of that game, we dominated them in the second half, they got crushed by Seattle, before wrapping up at home against a bad Cardinals team (a game which was 7-6 at halftime). Did the bye week focus the 49ers or reinforce some (recently) bad habits? Also, can Kaepernick do it in the playoffs? Packers looked great last week, albeit against a team with no QB.

I don't think Baltimore can really win this game, especially in Denver, after the Broncos recently destroyed the Ravens in Baltimore. BUT, the Ravens appear to have gotten back on track (great win against the needy Giants, game off against the Bengals, and then a very strong win against the Colts). I think the Ravens will get to Peyton some and can limit the Broncos from putting up huge (35+) points. But I think the Broncos will be equally able to pressure a much less talented Flacco.

In my opinion, the pieces have to fall exactly right for Houston to beat us. They've got to (significantly) adjust their defensive game plan from a month ago. It's been said many times over, but we torched them without Gronk. Foster must have a huge game. The fact that the Texans will probably be able to run their 2 or 3 TE sets will help them. If they can get a few turnovers from us (say, Hernandez short-arms a pass or one of the RBs slips up) and keep it clean on their side, then they'll have a shot. But I really feel pretty good.

This is the best football weekend of the year. Enjoy!

 

[Kontradiction]

1. Green Bay over San Fran

2. Seattle over Atlanta

3. Baltimore over Denver

4. Houston over New England

--------------------------------

1. This game is really tight to call. Green Bay has been playing really good football down the stretch, but the 49ers defense matches up extremely well with them. Personally, I'm calling Niners in this game, but I wouldn't be shocked in the least if Green Bay pulls it off, either. I believe the Packers are 8-1 against the 49ers in the last nine games.

2. I'm actually picking Seattle in this one. Sherman is more than capable of sticking with Julio Jones one on one, then I suspect that Seattle will roll safety help over the top with Roddy White. Michael Turner isn't what he used to be and Seattle is hard to run on, anyway.

For Atlanta to move the ball, they have to start off hitting their slot receivers and Tony Gonzalez over the soft middle of the Seahawk defense. If they do that with success and don't abandon the running game, it will force the safeties to move up in pass protection. That's when Ryan should have some good opportunities with Jones and White over the top.

3. The more I think about it, the more I think that Baltimore may have a good opportunity to win this game. That opportunity won't make me change my pick, but a Ravens win isn't as far fetched as it may seem. In the first contest with the Ravens (if you can call it that), Manning passed for a season-low in yards. The Ravens now get back Ray Lewis (who will provide an emotional spark at the very least) and Dannell Ellerbe, who should be able to put pressure on Manning. Still, I don't think it will matter. Baltimore is soft in coverage over the middle and Manning has a few options he can take advantage of that with. Either one of Decker or Thomas will have a big day as well.

4. Not putting this here because I'm a Pats fan. I just don't see many scenarios happening where Houston slows down Hernandez, Welker, and Gronk at the same time. Short of Watt having a field day and treating Brady like a pinata, I'm not sure how they slow the offense down enough to make a difference.