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Projecting the Starting Offense - Post Hernandez/Minus Gronkowski


MTM558

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Tom Brady isn't getting any younger.

When your best player is your Quarterback, and when said Quarterback is easily top-5 all time and entering into the twilight of his career, the value of consistency cannot be made any greater. Unfortunately, after a turbulent offseason, the Patriots are entering 2013 with a whole new cast surrounding Tom Brady, lead by rookie receivers Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce.

It began with the departure of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead. It then moved to the injury woes of Rob Gronkowski, the release of Brandon Lloyd, and then the ultimate arrest of Aaron Hernandez. In their stead, the likes of the rookies, Michael Jenkins, and Jake Ballard enter.

A little scary? Yes. But change has come, and with Brady in a race against time, the Patriots must be decisive with their next course of action regarding the offense. Their fabled 2 Tight End sets are no more (at least for this season), forcing yet another evolution in an already flexible Patriots offense.

Some will argue that the Patriots should bide their time, going ground and pound until Rob Gronkowski returns to action, relying on Ridley and Vereen while utilizing veteran receivers Amendola, Jenkins, and Boyce. I disagree. Much has been made of the Patriots shortcomings in the development of young Wide Receivers, but this is a season in which they can't afford to hide their rookies behind sub-par veterans. If they're going to flop, they should flop on the field, not in practice where they aren't receiving any meaningful reps.

How do I envision the offense going into week 1? Let me explain below (I will assume Gronkowski is on PUP / out for a few weeks).

"X" WR: Aaron Dobson
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
OC: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Daniel Fells
"Y" WR: Danny Amendola
"Z" WR: Josh Boyce
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley

In this projection, there will be no hiding for Dobson or Boyce. They were drafted to add another dimension to this offense. They won't add anything if they are giving up playing time to the likes of Jenkins or Jones. As the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez, with (to a lesser extent) Ridley and Vereen, even Jones and Hightower... their young players need to get an early taste of NFL action. Sink or swim, baptized by fire.

The above projection is, arguably, the best 11 players the Patriots can put forth, minus Gronkowski. The Offensive line returns intact, Ridley looks primed to build upon a good season, Daniel Fells is the best HEALTHY Tight End after Gronkowski (Ballard is still working his way back), while the top receiving options fall to Amendola and the rookies.

I'm short on time but would love to discuss more... any thoughts? How do you see the offense taking shape come week 1, and why?
 
Gronk plays week 1, offense comes out onto the field as:

QB: Brady
RB: Ridley
OL: Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Cannon, Vollmer
TE: Gronkowski, Ballard
WR: Amendola, Jenkins

This is barring further injuries before week 1, of course.
 
The offense can very well be as good or better than 2012 and 2011. I think with Tom Brady the offense will put up a bunch of points like always. We need the D to get better. If the defense gets to where it needs to be, we will be a 13-14 win team all day long. But we won't know until the end of TC and preseason.
 
IMO, it is very unlikely that both Dobson and Boyce will begin the season as starters. Either Edelman will be be in one of those spots (likely, IMO) or Jenkins, who is either going to be unemployed come September or starting. There is no need to have him if he falls in the middle somewhere.

I also wouldn't discount the possibility that NE has two TEs on the field even in Gronk's absence, or perhaps uses Vereen in a modified Hernandez role.
 
Obviously, this roster will require a large improvement in the health of Gronkowski and Ballard.

Gronk plays week 1, offense comes out onto the field as:

QB: Brady
RB: Ridley
OL: Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Cannon, Vollmer
TE: Gronkowski, Ballard
WR: Amendola, Jenkins

This is barring further injuries before week 1, of course.
 
QB: Brady
RB: Ridley
Receiver: Amendola + Dobson/Jenkins (If he survives the preseason)
TEs (Assuming Gronk is healthy): Gronk + Sudfeld (I really think this kid can be special, believe there is more upside here than with Fells. IMHO Fells is cut before the last preseason game)
OL: Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, Vollmer

I think Edelman gets switched in for 3 WR sets and Vereen is used mainly with the shotgun and hurry-up offense.

Tebow doesn't make the roster.








He gets arrested.
 
Tom Brady isn't getting any younger.

When your best player is your Quarterback, and when said Quarterback is easily top-5 all time and entering into the twilight of his career, the value of consistency cannot be made any greater. Unfortunately, after a turbulent offseason, the Patriots are entering 2013 with a whole new cast surrounding Tom Brady, lead by rookie receivers Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce.

It began with the departure of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead. It then moved to the injury woes of Rob Gronkowski, the release of Brandon Lloyd, and then the ultimate arrest of Aaron Hernandez. In their stead, the likes of the rookies, Michael Jenkins, and Jake Ballard enter.

A little scary? Yes. But change has come, and with Brady in a race against time, the Patriots must be decisive with their next course of action regarding the offense. Their fabled 2 Tight End sets are no more (at least for this season), forcing yet another evolution in an already flexible Patriots offense.

Some will argue that the Patriots should bide their time, going ground and pound until Rob Gronkowski returns to action, relying on Ridley and Vereen while utilizing veteran receivers Amendola, Jenkins, and Boyce. I disagree. Much has been made of the Patriots shortcomings in the development of young Wide Receivers, but this is a season in which they can't afford to hide their rookies behind sub-par veterans. If they're going to flop, they should flop on the field, not in practice where they aren't receiving any meaningful reps.

How do I envision the offense going into week 1? Let me explain below (I will assume Gronkowski is on PUP / out for a few weeks).

"X" WR: Aaron Dobson
LT: Nate Solder
LG: Logan Mankins
OC: Ryan Wendell
RG: Dan Connolly
RT: Sebastian Vollmer
TE: Daniel Fells
"Y" WR: Danny Amendola
"Z" WR: Josh Boyce
QB: Tom Brady
RB: Stevan Ridley

In this projection, there will be no hiding for Dobson or Boyce. They were drafted to add another dimension to this offense. They won't add anything if they are giving up playing time to the likes of Jenkins or Jones. As the Patriots did with Gronkowski and Hernandez, with (to a lesser extent) Ridley and Vereen, even Jones and Hightower... their young players need to get an early taste of NFL action. Sink or swim, baptized by fire.

The above projection is, arguably, the best 11 players the Patriots can put forth, minus Gronkowski. The Offensive line returns intact, Ridley looks primed to build upon a good season, Daniel Fells is the best HEALTHY Tight End after Gronkowski (Ballard is still working his way back), while the top receiving options fall to Amendola and the rookies.

I'm short on time but would love to discuss more... any thoughts? How do you see the offense taking shape come week 1, and why?

QB- Brady
RB- Ridley
WR- Dobson (X)
WR- Amendola (Z)
TE- Gronkowski (Y)
TE- Ford (Joker)
LT- Solder
LG- Mankins
C- Wendell
RG- Cannon
RT- Vollmer

Since its pre training camp I will take some chances with my predications. So I have Brandon Ford being the biggest surprise of the preseason, along with Cannon taking a big step forward and over taking Connolly as the starting right guard.

If my above mentioned dreams don't become a reality I'd say everything else remains as I listed except Ballard starting as the second tight end and Connolly starting at right guard.
 
There is no way we have a base 3 WR set. The only way that could possibly happen is if Dobson and Boyce both looked like stars in training camp. I think neither of them breaking 40 catches is more likely than that happening this year.


LT: Solder
LG: Mankins
C: Wendell
RG: Connolly
RT: Vollmer

QB: Brady
RB: Ridley
TE1: Ballard
TE2: Hooman
WR1: Amendola
WR2: Dobson


I think Gronk will be ready for game 1 if only to ease him back in, but this is for sans Gronk per the OP's hypothetical situation.
 
Julian Edelman's experience in the offense, and skillset will definitely get him a starting spot on the offense.
 


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