Projected 2021 Salary Cap Decrease of $30-80 million

[XLIX]

“Proposal being discussed”

The NFLPA agreed to it earlier this evening.

 

[Ring 6]

The NFLPA agreed to it earlier this evening.

The nfl and nflpa agreed that the players will not be paid for any games that aren’t played (prior to this they would have been) in return for a minimum cap next year. That cap is more than 23 million below this year and no higher or not much higher than it would already have been if a full season is played.

Reaching an agreement does actually not mean that the agreement includes everything that had been proposed and everything somebody speculated might be part of it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The nfl and nflpa agreed that the players will not be paid for any games that aren’t played (prior to this they would have been) in return for a minimum cap next year. That cap is more than 23 million below this year and no higher or not much higher than it would already have been if a full season is played.

Reaching an agreement does actually not mean that the agreement includes everything that had been proposed and everything somebody speculated might be part of it.

If the season is cancelled prior to Week 1, then players on 2019 rosters get $250K. If it's cancelled after that, anyone on a Week 1 roster gets $300K (offset by any salary already paid). Plus any guaranteed salary will still be paid at a future date.

Remember, by the way, that the median salary in the NFL is about $1M.

Source: RGIII, 20 minutes ago

 

[Ring 6]

If the season is cancelled prior to Week 1, then players on 2019 rosters get $250K. If it's cancelled after that, anyone on a Week 1 roster gets $300K (offset by any salary already paid). Plus any guaranteed salary will still be paid at a future date.

Remember, by the way, that the median salary in the NFL is about $1M.

Source: RGIII, 20 minutes ago

So in those cases the teams save 750-800k x 53 = 37 -40 million (plus practice squad etc) based on your estimate of 1 million

Btw are you sure the median is 1 mill when 53 players get paid 198 mill under the cap?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Btw are you sure the median is 1 mill when 53 players get paid 198 mill under the cap?

Yes. The median is the 50th percentile. If you have a player earning $20M, you need five players making minimum salaries to balance him out. Do the math, and you'll see why it pretty much has to be about $1M. [It might be a bit higher, but it's definitely closer to $1M than $2M.]

 

[Ring 6]

Yes. The median is the 50th percentile. If you have a player earning $20M, you need five players making minimum salaries to balance him out. Do the math, and you'll see why it pretty much has to be about $1M. [It might be a bit higher, but it's definitely closer to $1M than $2M.]

My bad, misread median as mean.
So if the mean is closer to say 3 mill that means owners save around 120 mill under those scenarios.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

My bad, misread median as mean.
So if the mean is closer to say 3 mill that means owners save around 120 mill under those scenarios.

One catch, though: there's still a clause requiring teams to spend a minimum of 89% of their salary cap allotments from 2017 to 2020. So even if there's no season, teams will still have to pay out a minimum of ~50% of their 2020 salary cap allotment. . . .

 

[Simpelton]

So I don’t know if this is new news on here, but Schefter’s been saying the owners expect the cap to drop next year between 30 million and 80 million

Adam Schefter Dropped an Important Nugget About Projected 2021 NFL Salary Cap That No One is Talking About

Obviously this will have massive impacts. Especially for us when we were expecting to have a windfall of cap next year.

Thoughts? How will the league adjust?

I’m concerned

The two teams this is most likely to screw over are the 2 most recent superbowl contenders who both have young QBs at the beginning of their prime and have to both back up the truck for Mahomes and Jimmy G, and try to put a team around them in order to stay competitive. Both SF and KC are only at beginning of their playoff windows but if the cap goes down that severely it's a huge kick in the teeth for both franhises, for the exact same reason.

It doesn't hurt us nearly as much. We've had our run, if we have a step-back year or 2 while we retool, it's acceptable, just means we need to retool a bit more aggressively, shed some more expensive talent and make room for some youngsters. For a young team trying to make hay while the sun shines, a cap drop of 80M is an absolute disaster.

 

[Ring 6]

One catch, though: there's still a clause requiring teams to spend a minimum of 89% of their salary cap allotments from 2017 to 2020. So even if there's no season, teams will still have to pay out a minimum of ~50% of their 2020 salary cap allotment. . . .

I’m sure that was addressed in the agreement that says no pay if there aren’t games.

 

[Patsgofor4]

FWIW. When I thought about Pats players who may opt out, he was the first one who came to mind.

 

[ralmat55]

Everyone is aware, I hope, that as one of the highest earners of stadium revenue the Patriots stand to take a hell of a financial beating from this season of few fans or no fans in the stands. Patriot Place is going to be a ghost town.

So, perhaps, we should not expect every dollar saved by opting-out players or other veterans inevitably cut to be used to sign players still on the market who have bigger names than games. Billionaires don’t like to lose money, and the Patriots have a lot of mouths to feed aside from the players. So, the most likely usage of any savings in player salaries will go to making smaller the dollar figure in red ink at the bottom of their 2020 profit and loss statement.

Even with the amendment to the CBA, I still expect a lot of veterans with big non guaranteed salaries to be looking for work come September. It’s a no-brainer for Marcus Cannon to stay home, protect his health, and collect his $350,000 stipend rather than risk his health and, possibly, get cut before the season.

 

[Ivan]

This benefits the teams that aren't projected to be over the lowered cap number next offseason, such as the New England Patriots. This could be exactly how the Chiefs dynasty ends before it begins.

This is how I see it as well. In terms of the end of the Brady era the Patriots are resetting and they don’t have bloated contracts they have to try and keep around. The teams that are screwed are teams like the a Chiefs, who are spending big money on big contract players. And there is no one I trust more to figure out the potential problems with the cap than this front office.

 

[mgteich]

So I don’t know if this is new news on here, but Schefter’s been saying the owners expect the cap to drop next year between 30 million and 80 million

.

After the threat of a cap reduction of $30M-$80M, the maximum salary reduction will be only $23M to a floor of $175M, with further losses spread over 3 years.

 

[Ross12]

Everyone is aware, I hope, that as one of the highest earners of stadium revenue the Patriots stand to take a hell of a financial beating from this season of few fans or no fans in the stands. Patriot Place is going to be a ghost town.

So, perhaps, we should not expect every dollar saved by opting-out players or other veterans inevitably cut to be used to sign players still on the market who have bigger names than games. Billionaires don’t like to lose money, and the Patriots have a lot of mouths to feed aside from the players. So, the most likely usage of any savings in player salaries will go to making smaller the dollar figure in red ink at the bottom of their 2020 profit and loss statement.

Even with the amendment to the CBA, I still expect a lot of veterans with big non guaranteed salaries to be looking for work come September. It’s a no-brainer for Marcus Cannon to stay home, protect his health, and collect his $350,000 stipend rather than risk his health and, possibly, get cut before the season.

So you think Kraft is going to tell Belichick that he’s not allowed to spend any more money and also needs to cut expensive vets because the Pats need to save some coin for a year? Fat chance.

 

[Ring 6]

After the threat of a cap reduction of $30M-$80M, the maximum salary reduction will be only $23M to a floor of $175M, with further losses spread over 3 years.

And in return for that concession, if it is a concession at all when all is said and done, players will not get paid for games that are not played.

Btw I have seen no confirmation of “spreading” any potential shortfall over a term of years being agreed to, only speculation it was being negotiated.

 

[Patsgofor4]

And in return for that concession, if it is a concession at all when all is said and done, players will not get paid for games that are not played.

Btw I have seen no confirmation of “spreading” any potential shortfall over a term of years being agreed to, only speculation it was being negotiated.

I'm not sure why you keep writing this. This article is on NFL.com and no NFLPA attorneys or player reps have disputed the information. The player rep vote was 29-3.

NFL, NFLPA reach agreement on COVID-19 adjustments to CBA

Financially, the league will spread the impact of any 2020 revenue shortfall due to the pandemic over four years beginning in 2021. The salary cap will be at least $175 million in 2021, while the 2020 cap of $198.2 million remains unchanged. The two sides were able to reach an agreement after owners raised the minimum cap for 2021 from $165 million to $175 million and dropped their request for an $8 million reduction in cap for 2020, per Pelissero.

In the event that financial losses are not as great as anticipated, the cap will be higher in 2021 than $175 million. Setting a floor simply provides clubs with a baseline with which they can plan financially.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm not sure why you keep writing this. This article is on NFL.com and no NFLPA attorneys or player reps have disputed the information. The player rep vote was 29-3.

NFL, NFLPA reach agreement on COVID-19 adjustments to CBA

Financially, the league will spread the impact of any 2020 revenue shortfall due to the pandemic over four years beginning in 2021. The salary cap will be at least $175 million in 2021, while the 2020 cap of $198.2 million remains unchanged. The two sides were able to reach an agreement after owners raised the minimum cap for 2021 from $165 million to $175 million and dropped their request for an $8 million reduction in cap for 2020, per Pelissero.

In the event that financial losses are not as great as anticipated, the cap will be higher in 2021 than $175 million. Setting a floor simply provides clubs with a baseline with which they can plan financially.

I would imagine that when someone says they HAVE NOT SEEN CONFIRMATION that would mean they are saying it because they have not seen confirmation.
Apparently to you this means I read the article that confirmed it but want to waste my time saying I haven’t.

 

[ralmat55]

So you think Kraft is going to tell Belichick that he’s not allowed to spend any more money and also needs to cut expensive vets because the Pats need to save some coin for a year? Fat chance.

Bob Kraft is Belichick’s boss. I’m not sure why that’s not clear to so many. Think just before trading deadline in 2017 if you need a reminder. I didn’t say the Patriots would be cutting expensive vets en masse. I said NFL teams would. Even back in the pre dynasty days in the old stadium, Bob Kraft didn’t spare coin to field a competitive team, and I doubt he will this year, but anyone expecting them to shell out $18 million for Jadevon Clowney is going to be disappointed.

 

[Ring 6]

Bob Kraft is Belichick’s boss. I’m not sure why that’s not clear to so many. Think just before trading deadline in 2017 if you need a reminder. I didn’t say the Patriots would be cutting expensive vets en masse. I said NFL teams would. Even back in the pre dynasty days in the old stadium, Bob Kraft didn’t spare coin to field a competitive team, and I doubt he will this year, but anyone expecting them to shell out $18 million for Jadevon Clowney is going to be disappointed.

Paying Clowney 18 mill first of all is crazy because that’s not close to his real market and mostly is a football decision of value relative to the cap not a budgetary one.

I was confused by your initial post which I understood to say that fewer customers at patriot place would impact what kraft wants to spend on the football team, can you clarify that?

 

[Patsgofor4]

I would imagine that when someone says they HAVE NOT SEEN CONFIRMATION that would mean they are saying it because they have not seen confirmation.
Apparently to you this means I read the article that confirmed it but want to waste my time saying I haven’t.

No reason to keep arguing about something that is settled, no matter how many times you state otherwise. If you are looking for the league or the NFLPA to send out a press release, you go nuts and keep waiting for something that will likely never occur. If the details reported on twitter by the NFL insiders (including one who works for the NFL) were incorrect, we would know by now. The NFLPA reps have not been shy about public refuting misinformation about the negotiations. This is not a team transaction or individual player punishment, which are officially confirmed by the team and/or the league.

You do you and keep stubbornly waiting. The rest of us have moved on.

PS.