Predict Pats biggest FA signing 2013

[supafly]

The ranks is what matters the most because it gives historical context to the stats and records.
For example, a team with 4000 passing yds in the 2011 NFL couldn't crack the top 10, while it was enough for a 2nd place in the 2001 NFL. Or a team with 2000 rushing yds in the 2010 NFL would make it to 8th place, while the 1985 NFL averaged 2000 rushing yds per team.
Same happens with the consecutive games with a passing TD record: Unitas' streak means more because he was not even close to his contenders in the league at the moment, while Brees/Brady did it on an era led by elite passers (hope you take this as an offense to our guy; if he does it, amen to that. Another proof he is the GOAT).

But is fine. Here are the defensive stats per game:

[B]Season        Pts          TotYds        PassYds         RushYds[/B]
2001          17.00        334.50        218.56          115.94
2002          21.63        336.06        198.69          137.38
2003          14.88        291.63        202.00          89.63
2004          16.25        310.75        212.50          98.25
2005          21.13        330.19        231.44          98.75
2006          14.81        294.38        200.19          94.19
2007          17.13        288.31        190.06          98.25
2008          19.31        309.00        201.38          107.63
2009          17.81        320.19        209.69          110.50
2010          19.56        366.50        258.50          108.00
2011          21.38        411.06        293.94          117.13
2012          22.07        381.07        275.53          105.53

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 18 points per game. We have accomplished that in 8 out of the 31 games (25.8%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 319 total yards per game. We have accomplished that in 3 out of the 31 games (9.7%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 212 passing yards per game. We have accomplished that in 6 out of the 31 games (19.4%) in the last 2 seasons.

- From 2001 to 2010, we allowed an average of less than 106 rushing yards per game. We have accomplished that in 16 out of the 31 games (51.6%) in the last 2 seasons. (The only place where we have been consistent. Not better, though.)

Also, we allowed 500 plays of 20+ yds (what is considered "big plays" for the NFL) from '01 to '10, an average of 50 per season, or 3 per game. In the last 2 years we've allowed 164 plays of this type (NFL-leading), an average of 82 per season, or 5 per game.

Yeah, no doubt the defense has been much worse in the past few years. I am hoping that each year that may be getting closer to coming back to where they were, and that we're only a couple of players away from getting there.

Unfortunately, those players have tended to be in the secondary the past few seasons (2010-2012), so that would be a huge start right there. If Talib is re signed and Dennard keeps making improvement, that would be a great start. Moving McCourty to safety has been a genius move, and I was shocked that many didn't agree with it after seeing him there last season.

A little depth and talent on the interior of the line, along with one more quality playmaker in the front seven would be the obvious other choice besides the secondary.

Good job posting/finding those numbers, they show a clear difference between where the defense used to be and where they have been since 2010.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The Pats DID file a grievance over it. It was "reported" via Twitter by Reiss/Price et al.

I never saw any of them report more than speculation that the team might be doing that. And if they had it would have been heard by now and the nationals who keep an eye on that sort of thing would have been reporting on the proceedings and rehashing the particulars.

 

[JackBauer]

Rodney Harrison says hello.

So you're saying we'd be getting Reed circa 2007-2008?

 

[mayoclinic]

I know I sound like a broken record here, but it bears repeating: BB didn't just hand him a big contract just for the heck of it. Obviously there was a reason why BB felt it made sense to offer him that much money.

And, BTW, before that 65-yard return in the SF game (that should have been largely wiped out), the Pats were holding teams under 20 yards/return.

I know I sound like a broken record here, but it bears repeating: the Pats don't hand out anyone a big contract without thinking they're worth it, and getting a big contract is no guarantee that you're going to play out the full length of the contract. I'm not predicting anything, I'm just saying that I don't think that Gostkowski is cast in stone, and his cap hit relative to his positional value and performance makes him something of a question mark going into the offseason.

 

[Patsrock]

I never saw any of them report more than speculation that the team might be doing that. And if they had it would have been heard by now and the nationals who keep an eye on that sort of thing would have been reporting on the proceedings and rehashing the particulars.

They did release him under the designation of "Failure to disclose a physical condition". And the fact the 1.35 million of his bonus isn't paid until March might be the reason no hearing yet.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I don't expect any big signings unless we're planning to keep 1 or less of Welker/Vollmer/Talib. I'd be happy enough if the following happen next offseason:

-Draft a starting caliber CB and S
-Bequette becomes a regular contributor on 3rd downs and obvious pass situations
-Draft OL/DL depth
-Draft a developmental WR
-Re-sign Welker/Edelman/Woodhead/Arrington. Short term deal for Talib in case we cannot find an answer in the draft

As we've seen lately it's not unrealistic for the team to draft 2 impact players and 2 limited contributors. And those holes may also be filled through cheap vet pickups.

 

[PlainOldEd]

And lets not forget the Wood.

We need the Woodhead.

How could we forget little Danny Woodc0ck?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Also I wouldn't rule out a possible suprise return by Mark Anderson next year. If the Bills were to cut ties with that contract he may be available on the cheap after a disappointing injury plagued season.

 

[josh24]

I don't expect any big signings unless we're planning to keep 1 or less of Welker/Vollmer/Talib. I'd be happy enough if the following happen next offseason:

-Draft a starting caliber CB and S
-Bequette becomes a regular contributor on 3rd downs and obvious pass situations
-Draft OL/DL depth
-Draft a developmental WR
-Re-sign Welker/Edelman/Woodhead/Arrington. Short term deal for Talib in case we cannot find an answer in the draft

As we've seen lately it's not unrealistic for the team to draft 2 impact players and 2 limited contributors. And those holes may also be filled through cheap vet pickups.

WHY!? :bricks:

 

[Brady2Moss]

Aqib Talib

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I know I sound like a broken record here, but it bears repeating: the Pats don't hand out anyone a big contract without thinking they're worth it, and getting a big contract is no guarantee that you're going to play out the full length of the contract.

(1) It's true that not everyone sees the end of their contracts (of course, that's not limited to the Patriots).
(2) I wasn't directing the "broken record" at you; I was directing at people who might have noticed that I've posted that same thing 3-4 times in the last week.
(3) I guess the question I'm asking is this: what was the point of giving Gostkowski that big a contract in the first place? It was larger, I think, than anyone here (myself included) would have expected. The answer to that question, I believe, will determine whether Gostkowski stays or goes. . . . along with the question of KOs in general.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think re-signing Talib is a major must for our defense. Yes, the team should structure it to protect themselves in case he gets suspended again. But he has absolutely had a positive impact on the overall quality of our coverage in the secondary. It allows us to play McCourty at S and Dennard at outside corner, and move Arrington to nickel. The arrival of just one quality player helped us shore up a lot of weaknesses.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I like us to pick up Keller from the Jets at a reasonable number - assuming he's gone from there. Given how we never seem to carry 3 healthy TEs I don't think that Gronk, Hern, Ballard and Keller would be overkill. Keep Hut-Oh around too.

Keller is going to command good money as a TE. The league is increasingly TE-offense friendly. And the demand will be there for his services. I don't think we can afford to shell out 5m+ for a 3rd TE.

Daydreams of Ed Reed. But are his best days behind him, and how much will he cost?

 

[ATippett56]

Pryor is not a FA, due to having remained on the PUP list all year. You can immediately cross his name off the list.

From a pure accouting standpoint, Myron Pryor and Jake Ballard have not been added to the 2013 New England Patriots Salary Cap page. Refer to the link below for details.

New England Patriots Salary Cap 2013

I claimed 2/20 with 14-15 guaranteed for Welker and about 90% thought that was too low, so I doubt 3/24 with 12 guaranteed even comes close to getting it done.

Randy Moss received a three year contract worth $27 million with a $12 million signing bonus. Considering the salary cap will be flat for the 2013 NFL Season and possibly flat for the 2014 NFL Season, a three year contract worth $24 million for Wes Welker sounds reasonable.

 

[manxman2601]

WHY!? :bricks:

1. He's very good in the slot.

2. Plays the run well.

3. Knows the system.

4. BB clearly likes him.

 

[Deus Irae]

...Randy Moss received a three year contract worth $27 million with a $12 million signing bonus. Considering the salary cap will be flat for the 2013 NFL Season and possibly flat for the 2014 NFL Season, a three year contract worth $24 million for Wes Welker sounds reasonable.

Since he's set to bank over $11 million for one more Patriots year, you're essentially trying to extend him at 2 years, $13 million. Why would he take that deal?

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

Apologies if this has already been posted, but I have a hunch if Adam Seward is available, he is Pats number 1 target!

 

[mayoclinic]

1. He's very good in the slot.

2. Plays the run well.

3. Knows the system.

4. BB clearly likes him.

All of the above, and more.

BB clearly doesn't always see players the way some of us do, and values other things. Arrington does all the things noted above, plus he's an excellent STer and has nice versatility - remember BB lining him up at DE with some success in 2011? He's got a lot of things going for him AS LONG AS he's not lined up as an outisde CB, where he has been a major liability. At the right price, in the right role, he's an asset. Not one worth banking the bank over, but an asset nonetheless.

 

[josh24]

1. He's very good in the slot.

2. Plays the run well.

3. Knows the system.

4. BB clearly likes him.

True. The problem is that we need our #1 and #2 CBs to be healthy all year so we can play him in the slot. It gives me nightmares every time he plays wide replacing Talib/Dennard.

 

[mayoclinic]

True. The problem is that we need our #1 and #2 CBs to be healthy all year so we can play him in the slot. It gives me nightmares every time he plays wide replacing Talib/Dennard.

That's why we really need Dowling to step up as the #3 CB, or better yet a hybrid S/CB role, so that he can juggle back and forth between the positions instead of McCourty, and keep Arrington and Cole out of the outside CB role.