Possibly only TEN (10) wins needed for Pats to get 2nd seed

[Sicilian]

Based on last season we know that if that last game in miami is a question of playing guys that aren't 100% and devising a game plan designed to prevent injury/further injury VS winning and getting home field, we know Belichick will side on the side of running the ball 25 times and passing 3 times in the first half, running up the gut on 3d and 10 from their own 45....

Because Belichick always does exactly the things he's done in the past?

 

[PatsDeb]

Based on last season we know that if that last game in miami is a question of playing guys that aren't 100% and devising a game plan designed to prevent injury/further injury VS winning and getting home field, we know Belichick will side on the side of running the ball 25 times and passing 3 times in the first half, running up the gut on 3d and 10 from their own 45....

I'm not so sure. BB is one who learns from his mistakes...

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

But we are still UnDefeated on the Road with Dion Lewis having a game under him. Saw the Patriots deployed a Full House Formation with Lewis and White in the Backfield at the same time. That Formation should give any Defense Problems.

OK but SF can't defend the run at all. Say what you want about the Jets (and trust me, I have), they aren't bad against the run.

 

[denverpatsfan]

It's going to take more than 10-wins for the #2 seed. I'll bet you on it.

Denver could win out. Pats and @ Chiefs are the (2) toughest games left.

Raiders pulled another one out of their *** so they are still in play.

Too early to tell yet.

 

[mosslost]

It's going to take more than 10-wins for the #2 seed. I'll bet you on it.

Denver could win out. Pats and @ Chiefs are the (2) toughest games left.

Raiders pulled another one out of their *** so they are still in play.

Too early to tell yet.

Denver not relevant to us getting the number TWO seed.. No one in AFCW is relevant to that.

10 Wins there is a very good chance it gets us the number 2 seed, provided one of those wins is agains the Dolphins.

If Pats finish 2-4 the rest of the way, provided they beat the Dolphins. Pats get number 2 seed if the following else happens:

1. Dolphins finish 4-1 or worse, out side of our game. They finish 10-6, we win division with tie breaker.
2. Texans. Texans are 6-4. If Texans go 4-2 and no better, (very possible), we beat them out on tie breaker
3. Steelers/Ravens If Steelers go 5-1 the rest of the way, we have tie breaker at 10-6. They would have to go 6-0 and us 2-4 for them to move ahead. Record wise it is the same situation for Ravens. They would have to go 5-1 and beat us, to beat us out.

So, in actuality 10-6 should easily be good enough for the number 2 seed.

EDIT: Jesus.. looking at it more closely, 9-7 could do it.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Umm. TWO of our SB wins came from the 2nd seed. BOTH of Brady era SB losses came from One Seed.

I am just saying that the First Round bye is hugely important in Patriot playoff history. Getting number one is the goal, but getting at least the number 2 is always an important goal. And it is interesting how good of a position they are in early to get at least the 2.

We got the 2 seed last year and we got bounced by the 1 seed. Same thing in 2013. If we get the 2 seed I would be disappointed to say the least.

 

[SVN]

OAK and Miami need to lose some games. Too close for comfort right now.

 

[Sicilian]

If you're not good enough to win on the road in the playoffs if you need to, then you're not good enough to use that as an excuse why you didn't win the Super Bowl.

 

[FCB02062]

Because Belichick always does exactly the things he's done in the past?

Belichick has played percentages - does he think he'd have a better chance getting to SB with a divisional home game and perhaps an afc title game on the road with a "healthy" team or two home games with an unhealthy team...he chose the "healthy team" last year and they almost pulled it off...who knows what would've happened had Gostowski not missed that PAT...I guarantee he has %s laid out, i.e., if we choose option A (rest starters and play very conservatively in a HF clinching game) we still have a 33% chance if we lose (given #1 seeds at home history) in hosting the afc title game, but if we risk injury and Gronkowski, Edelman, Brady, gets hurt we only have a 10% chance winning at home....just throwing #s out there, but I bet those conversations occur between Belichick and pink stripes...

 

[brdmaverick]

I would almost rather have the Miami game be important just to keep the fire lit and keep everyone engaged. This year's unit seems as though it could be more easily knocked off-course than some other years, to this point anyway.

We all know how well that went last year.

Edit: Sorry, just read that someone else already mentioned something to same effect.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

EDIT: Jesus.. looking at it more closely, 9-7 could do it.

Yup. I was using NFL Playoff Predictor and got us to #2 at 8-8. I had the Dolphins at 7-8-1 and the Jets and Bills at 7-9 in this scenario, as well as the Colts (8-8) with the #3 , and the Steelers (8-8) with the #4.

The odds are next to nothing, but we can get the #2 losing the last six games. It requires weird events, but could happen.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Using the predictor and extreme scenarios, I also got us the number #1 seed at 8-6-2. That's right - the #1 is in our grasp by going 0-4-2 down the stretch.

Let's not try to use this method, but why not contemplate the absurdity...

 

[luuked]

The Jets are at home, coming off a bye week, a division rival, and they have a defense. We're flying cross country for a 2nd of a back to back road game. This has "upset" written all over it. I don't see this as a game we're "supposed" to win. If we pull this off, it will likely be by one score.

The Jets are in utter disarray, have a secondary that is totally in shambles and without Decker don't have the firepower to really challenge our defense too much. Stack the box against Forte, double cover Marshall (Ryan/Rowe underneath + DMac on top) and make Fitzpatrick play a errorfree game throwing the ball to Enunwa vs. Butler.

Unless it gets out of hand early it will be pretty similar to the SF game: it will look competitive until the middle/end of the third quarter but in the end we win comfortably.

The only chance the Jets have are injuries to our key players or winning the turnover battle by 2-3.

 

[mosslost]

Yup. I was using NFL Playoff Predictor and got us to #2 at 8-8. I had the Dolphins at 7-8-1 and the Jets and Bills at 7-9 in this scenario, as well as the Colts (8-8) with the #3 , and the Steelers (8-8) with the #4.

The odds are next to nothing, but we can get the #2 losing the last six games. It requires weird events, but could happen.

The wild thing is the 9-7 is very likely two seed. Now we won't lost 7 games, I still see us 13-3 roughly. However, the point of this thread for me was to say that the coveted playoff bye week is virtually locked already and likely will be locked up 3 weeks early. I bet now, looking at where the other teams are, that at the end of the season, if we reverse some of our wins down to a 9-7 record they still would have the number 2 seed. Adjusting this thread now to say 9-7 should get number 2.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

The Jets are in utter disarray, have a secondary that is totally in shambles and without Decker don't have the firepower to really challenge our defense too much. Stack the box against Forte, double cover Marshall (Ryan/Rowe underneath + DMac on top) and make Fitzpatrick play a errorfree game throwing the ball to Enunwa vs. Butler.

Unless it gets out of hand early it will be pretty similar to the SF game: it will look competitive until the middle/end of the third quarter but in the end we win comfortably.

The only chance the Jets have are injuries to our key players or winning the turnover battle by 2-3.

Hope you're right.

Back to back road games always scare me. This is where upsets happen and experienced gamblers make their $.

 

[luuked]

Hope you're right.

Back to back road games always scare me. This is where upsets happen and experienced gamblers make their $.

Hope so as well. In the end we are talking probabilities based on history (this season). Obviously, anything can go wrong but given the matchups and difference in talent I don't see a reason not to be pretty confident.