Playoff seedings

[Wordsmyth]

Who's laughing now, Mahrrrrrrrrrr?

 

[XLIX]

I’m sorry, I can’t take any website seriously which, right now at this moment, gives Notre Dame only a 79% chance of making the playoffs.

Whoever concocts their analyses may know math, but they sure don’t know football.

 

[oldrover]

Nate Silver, Jeff Lynne, playoff predictions, reliving the election run-up... I love these kinds of threads...




https://imgflip.com/gif-maker

...while they last.

 

[supafly]

You're still doing the same thing @luuked was calling people out for. Acting as if a 9% chance is somehow guaranteed not to happen. That's still roughly 1 time in 11, for crying out loud, which is not a small thing. I doubt you'd be "Woo-hoo! Nothing to worry about!" if a doctor told you you had a 9% chance of coming down with some nasty disease.

All I did was show an example where he was correct and another where he was wrong. When you write a lot of articles about the election is a near lock at 90%+ and your whole website is based on predicting, people are going to call you out on it.

He’s since released articles and statements stating why his model failed miserably. I don’t really see what the controversy is.

 

[supafly]

What were the Pats chances to win the SB against the Falcons down 3-28 ? Are all bookies dunces ?

That’s a terrible example. That would’ve applied during the event, while it was actually taking place. His whole predictive model is based on guessing beforehand.

 

[XLIX]

I'll be happy to switch gears back to football here.... the guy gives Notre Dame only a 78% chance of making the playoffs this year. That prediction makes no sense whatsoever. Notre Dame is in the playoffs, period, end of discussion. There is no set of outcomes for this weekend which would even remotely stand a chance of changing that fact.

I could see them getting leap-frogged by Georgia if Georgia wins. Of course if that happens, they could conceivably stay at #3 with Alabama falling to #4.... regardless, there is no way whatsoever they get leap-frogged by 2 teams. Neither OU or OSU have the resume to do that, even if they win by 50 this Saturday.

 

[mosslost]

.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Serious question: is the 2018 Houston Texans schedule the easiest you've ever seen?

@ New England
@ Tennessee
vs NY Giants
@ Indianapolis
vs Dallas
vs Buffalo
@ Jacksonville
vs Miami
@ Denver
@ Washington
vs Tennessee
vs Cleveland
vs Indianapolis
@ NY Jets
@ Philadelphia
vs Jacksonville

The AFC South is garbage, and they happen to playing the garbage NFC East, plus they're playing a last place schedule and get Cleveland and Denver. This is a team that should win 8-9 games with a normal schedule, but there's a serious possibility they'll win 12+.

 

[50-yard-line]

That’s a terrible example. That would’ve applied during the event, while it was actually taking place. His whole predictive model is based on guessing beforehand.

It's actually based on aggregate polling, with some historical trends and curbs added (openly, with methodology explained). Not sure what else you could ask any prognosticator (he's not a pollster) to do.

 

[supafly]

It's actually based on aggregate polling, with some historical trends and curbs added (openly, with methodology explained). Not sure what else you could ask any prognosticator (he's not a pollster) to do.

I’m simply asking how this applies to the 28-3 super bowl example, where the in-game odds change drastically? If someone were to wager on ATL winning a game they were up 28-3 at the end of the third quarter, they would have to put up thousands of dollars for the opportunity to win 100 bucks.

 

[PatsFan2]

Serious question: is the 2018 Houston Texans schedule the easiest you've ever seen?

@ New England
@ Tennessee
vs NY Giants
@ Indianapolis
vs Dallas
vs Buffalo
@ Jacksonville
vs Miami
@ Denver
@ Washington
vs Tennessee
vs Cleveland
vs Indianapolis
@ NY Jets
@ Philadelphia
vs Jacksonville

The AFC South is garbage, and they happen to playing the garbage NFC East, plus they're playing a last place schedule and get Cleveland and Denver. This is a team that should win 8-9 games with a normal schedule, but there's a serious possibility they'll win 12+.

Yeah: realize that too can't believe I will be rooting for the Browns and the Colts two Teams that are playing decent. But that Houston Defense lead by JJ Watt seems to be back they can also run the Football. Remember what Bill Pracells once said " IF you can run the football and play Good Defense you are going to win a lot of games."

 

[supafly]

Yeah: realize that too can't believe I will be rooting for the Browns and the Colts two Teams that are playing decent. But that Houston Defense lead by JJ Watt seems to be back they can also run the Football. Remember what Bill Pracells once said " IF you can run the football and play Good Defense you are going to win a lot of games."

I think Houston is legitimate enough to where they can make some noise. The addition of Demaryius Thomas opposite Deandre Hopkins helps that offense, which had become more explosive since Watson returned to health.

 

[maineman209]

So ...

I'm wondering how much the loss of Kareem Hunt hurts KCY's chances of winning out and securing HFA.

I mean, in case anyone finds the "Playoff Seeding" thread.

 

[supafly]

So ...

I'm wondering how much the loss of Kareem Hunt hurts KCY's chances of winning out and securing HFA.

I mean, in case anyone finds the "Playoff Seeding" thread.

It hurts their chances for sure. They just lost one of their top offensive players, so it’s quite possible that they lose a game and ultimately lose HFA. By doing such, they obviously lose the inside track to the SB.

 

[mcmurtry86]

So ...

I'm wondering how much the loss of Kareem Hunt hurts KCY's chances of winning out and securing HFA.

I mean, in case anyone finds the "Playoff Seeding" thread.

I doubt it makes much difference. The chances they lose 2+ are very slim, they’re too good on offense even without Hunt. The chances the Pats win out are also very slim considering their schedule and how bad they look at times. There are also scenarios where KC falters and Houston or Pittsburgh (or both) end up with byes. Too many unlikely things have to happen for the Pats to get the 1 seed and it seems even money that they even end up with the 2.

Nothing about the Pats inspires confidence in running the table. Houston very well could given how great they’ve been playing and their easy schedule. KC only has two games which should give them trouble and losing both seems unlikely. Outside of the usual “any given Sunday” caveat, the Pats have a very tough road to a bye let alone the #1

 

[supafly]

I doubt it makes much difference. The chances they lose 2+ are very slim, they’re too good on offense even without Hunt. The chances the Pats win out are also very slim considering their schedule and how bad they look at times. There are also scenarios where KC falters and Houston or Pittsburgh (or both) end up with byes. Too many unlikely things have to happen for the Pats to get the 1 seed and it seems even money that they even end up with the 2.

Why would Kansas City need to lose 2 games, let alone “2+?” The Pats need them to lose once.

 

[maineman209]

Why would Kansas City need to lose 2 games, let alone “2+?” The Pats need them to lose once.

If the Pats win out, one KCY loss is all it takes. If the Pats lose one more - which is apparently likely in McMurtry's opinion - then KCY would need to lose two games for the Pats to tie them (and win HFA on the head-to-head tiebreaker).

 

[supafly]

If the Pats win out, one KCY loss is all it takes. If the Pats lose one more - which is apparently likely in McMurtry's opinion - then KCY would need to lose two games for the Pats to tie them (and win HFA on the head-to-head tiebreaker).

Yeah, I just didn’t get the “2+” comment, that’s all.

I’m a bit hesitant to think they’re going to run the table at this point in time, too, but it’s certainly possible, as is KC losing once/maybe even twice.

 

[PittPatriot]

the steelers game is big, but then again they all are

Steelers have a brutal remaining schedule They will be lucky to be 11-5.

 

[supafly]

Steelers have a brutal remaining schedule They will be lucky to be 11-5.

11-4-1 is a real possibility with NO and NE remaining. 10-5-1 if they drop two.

Hard to take SD as seriously on the road without Gordon, but Ill be rooting for the Chargers like no one’s business.