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Perspective Thread: How many Super Bowls should the Patriots have won by now?

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Really great, relevant post by @Ice_Ice_Brady. So I thought I would include it in this thread
That is a good post. The only thing I'd add is that I think most agree that the Pats win the 2006 Super Bowl against the Bears, which isn't included here because they didn't make it to the game.

And usually those "shoulda couldas" are lame, but in this case they were one play away (3rd & 4, right? to Brown) to getting there. So hard not to think about that one.
 
I put what I think about this in a long post somewhere above a few months ago. Nothings really changed my mind from that, other than, to paraphrase Bill Clinton, "it's a matter of what 'should have' should mean"

If by "should have" you mean, how many SB's did the Patriots have the talent to win and put then put themselves in what should have been a reasonable position to win, then the answer is "somewhere around six."

If by "should have" you mean, how many SB's did the Patriots have the talent to win, put themselves in a reasonable position to win and ended up with all the random stuff that has to go the way of any team that wins an SB going in their favor, then the answer is "four."

"In their favor?" The Tuck call reversal, Kasay's OB KO, McNabb's dehydration, Owens' injury, Seattle's injuries and Carroll's brain fart at the goal line and/or Butler's perfect play at the goal line. "Not in their favor?" The magic helmet catch, Welker's drop, Eli's perfect pass to Manningham, Gronk's injuries, "fourth and two."

EDIT: to "In their favor," one has to add #4's kick to tie the game in the snow bowl, called even by haters the best FG under pressure in NFL history. The kick to win that game and the 48 yarder to win SB XXXVI weren't shabby, but the kick to tie from 45 yards in the teeth of a gale that just made it over the cross bar before dying was almost impossible to make under the circumstances. I'd probably also add Harbaugh's inability to adapt to BB's brilliant use of formations in the Divisional game last year.
 
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Great idea for a thread.

They should have won in...

1976 - Ben Dreith stole the Oakland game and the next two were gimmies. Pitt without Rocky Blier AND Franco Harris then an easy Minny team in the SB.
1996 - Without a lame duck Tuna Crap kicking to Desmond Howard we have a decent chance. Favre was bound to toss one to us in crunch time.
2001 - Somebody here earlier mentioned that we should have lost this one. With the way that playoff went, from the last game at Schaeffer to the Silence of the Rams, it was clearly meant to be.
2003 - Simply the Best.
2004 - Simply the Best II
2006 - The year we got Polianed by the calls in Indy. No way the Pats lose to Rex Grossman.
2007 - Yup, we should have made it to 19-0.
2009 - The idiotic 4th and two play. That's all I'll say about that.
2011 - Why oh why were the Pats running the ball so much against a Giants team that stunk against the run?
2014 - The Butler did it.

The only year I don't think we should have won was in 1985. Nobody was going to beat that Bears defense. It was so good that it got Rob and Rex lifetime gigs as NFL coaches.

By my calculations, that means we should have 10 SB wins.

I'll take the 4 and be happy
 
To me that 2006 loss to Manning was worse, yes worse, than the loss in the Super Bowl to the giants in 2007 I knew 2007 was going to end badly however I was convinced the Pats had beaten the Colts in the 2006 season AFC championship
The NFC opponent that year stood no chance. MVP for the Colts season that year, the Flu.
 
I agree 4. It is what it is.
 
Or you could look at it this way:

With 32 teams, on average your team wins it all after 16 seasons.

After that your team wins it all on average once every 32 years.

So the Patriots "should" have one Super Bowl victory in the time frame from the column in the original link, two since the franchise was brought into existence, and if a fan follows a team for a lifetime of 80 years then he should expect to see his team win it all three times.
 
It was the right decision, and Faulk got the first down. Regardless, that team had no chance to win the SB.

Yes. Forget about the WW injury vs HOU

They were 6-2 going into that game. Indy was 8-0.

They had the tough OT loss vs DEN and JMD earlier and the crap loss vs NYJ w/o WW. If they were able to come out of that Indy game with a W that would have been a huge confidence boost.

BB knew what he had with that team. They were good- but flawed and not all on the same page. I also think that they had a confidence problem in tight games.

If they had won that, they would have been 7-2. The Saints game was academic but the MIA game was a 1 point loss that they should never have happened.

That team just didn't make plays when they needed to be made.
 
Take away 01 and add 07 and 06. I think we left two on the table that shouldn't have been lost and won one we probably shouldn't have.
 
Take away 01 and add 07 and 06. I think we left two on the table that shouldn't have been lost and won one we probably shouldn't have.

All depends on the criteria you use. Does health and lack of goofy plays factor in? If so I'm thinking 6

01 happens
03 happens
04 happens
07 happens (Neal, Faulk hurt. Gost who was 3/5 from 40-49 all year kicks instead of that dumb 4th-13 play. Tyree bla bla)
11 happens (Gronk on 1 leg was a killer, WW makes that catch)
14 happens (....just because )

However it all goes back to the original point. Every freaking SB these guys are in comes down to a handful of points and a handful of plays that need to be made and 2/3rds of the time they've been successful.
 
These measures seem a bit sketchy, or at least misleading. Any team that won the Super Bowl will have far exceeded the probability of doing so because 1 > numbers smaller than 1. Doing it multiple times (in this case, 4) just exaggerates the effect further.

Basically, I think if you did this for any other successful team, you'd get the same or similar results.
 
Guess not many here think as highly of the 2010 team as I do ... so disappointing to lose to the Jets after beating a lot of very strong teams that year. They earned that 14-2 record and in no way should have lost to that team. If they had gotten over that collection brain flatulence, I think they had a very good chance to have won it all.
 
Five, in the 07/08 SB Manning was in the grasp for quite a long time, it should have been called. There would be no fluke helmet catch by tyree. The '010/11 SB manning made a great throw at the end to win the game.
 
49

Glad to be of service. - William of Occam
 
2001 - Team got the outcome it deserved, but it definitely overachieved. Very fortunate that Walter Coleman remembered the Tuck Rule. Most refs would have left it as is as a fumble. Definitely that bozo Jeff Triplette. But yeah that Pats team earned it.

2002 - Horrible year not just for Pats, but the NFL in general. Raiders top seed in AFC at 11-5. Raiders and Titans were better teams so even if Jets weren't gift wrapped that Week 17 game by that idiot Favre and his Packers, the Patriots would've been likely taken out one and done in the wild card round.

2003 - One of the greatest defenses in NFL history, along with an offense that did little but was juuuuust good enough. This was the best team in the NFL that season without question.

2004 - Arguably the most well rounded team of the Belicheck era. Never doubted them, and it was so satisfying, especially the rematch in Pittsburgh in the AFCCG.

2005 - Didn't feel like a team that was going to go the distance, but I feel that Triplette robbed the Pats of an AFCCG berth. I will go to my grave contending that Ben Watson's amazing hustle play resulted in what should have been a touchback and Patriots ball. That was the magic moment that would have turned the game around and I think the Pats would have won. The Steelers were hot though and I'm not convinced the Pats would've stopped the Jerome Bettis "He's from Detroit" retirement tour.

2006 - The Rodney Harrison injury makes me sick to my stomach just remembering it. The Pats overachieved in this playoff run, and it was very emotional for me when they came back to beat the Chargers (who I hated so much, thanks in large part to the contingent of Chargers trolls that flooded this forum for those of us who remember). Pats should have closed the deal in Indy, and I have no doubt they would have beat a Rex Grossman led Bears team in the SB. This was one that got away.

2007 - Near perfection aside, this was a flawed team. Maroney still wasn't good enough to make the run attack viable. Pats lived and died by the passing game. It was a respectable defense but one that wasn't too intimidating. But I still believe this should have been 19-0. It was a major opportunity squandered.

2008 - This one is tricky because almost the entire season was spent without Brady. I still feel like they would have made some noise in the playoffs with Cassel, as the Pats were clicking on all cylinders late that season. Cruel that the loss to Pittsburgh was the difference between having the #2 seed and missing the playoffs entirely. This would have been weird if Cassel led them to a SB title, because you couldn't credit Brady for it, and you never know if it would have led to Brady ending his Patriots career the same way Bledsoe did. Now if Brady hadn't gotten injured in the first place, the Pats probably would've won the SB that year. Or maybe Warner gets his revenge in the SB, who knows.

2009 - Bad team, just bad. Losing Welker in Week 17 certainly didn't help, but they weren't going to make it far in that playoffs. BTW I still think Faulk converted that 4th down play in Indy.

2010 - Another Pats team that overachieved IMO, but I also think they should have won it all. The Moss/Branch swap galvanized the team, and I thought we were going to get a Pats/Packers rematch in the SB. Still can not believe how flat they were in that Jets playoff defeat.

2011 - The defense was suspect, but this Pats team had some of the residual magic the 2010 team had. The AFCCG was the first and only Pats playoff game I've attended and I'll never forget how epic that game was. Still screw the Ravens for getting Gronk injured, which to me was the difference in not getting revenge on the Giants in the SB.

2012 - This felt sort of like a mix between the 2008 and 2010 team for me in terms of confidence. In that it was understandable that the absence of a star player (Gronk) stopped them from reaching their potential, but at least until their final possession in the first half of that AFCCG, it wasn't impossible for me to imagine them overcoming it. That final possession and the entire second half, was a whole damn mess. As if the power just went out. But I do think the 49ers were better and would have beaten the Pats, so it's hard to say on this one.

2013 - This is what it would have felt like if the 2005 or 2009 team made it past the divisional round. Still believe this was a deserved outcome, although screw Welker for purposely taking out Talib early and changing the entire complexion of the game. The two best teams in the NFL met in the Super Bowl, and the Pats weren't one of them.

2014 - What a special year. And to think, it usually took a special play to beat the Pats in the SB, and then the Kearse catch happened and thought it was deja vu, and then the Pats counter with a special play of their own at the last second. Most thrilling SB I've ever seen, most gratifying Pats win of my lifetime, and the only championship that comes close in my heart to matching the 2004 Red Sox. The Pats deserved this.

The Pats have 4 SB titles ('01, '03, '04, '14) but it feels to me like they could just as easily have won 8 ('06, '07, '10, '11).
 
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